UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Krokodil]

Yes, but airlines operate out of vast airports in the middle of nowhere have space for the larger number of border desks and larger queues post-brexit. St Pancras really does not. Having caught Eurostar a couple of time last year, the St. Pancras experience was horrible. They barely have enough capacity to handle their current loading, yet alone thinking about increasing them. And this chimes with statements from their CEO about how the only way they'll return to profitability is to raise their ticket prices rather than increase the number of trains.

This is why the stance on Ebbsfleet and Ashford confused me. Surely allowing passengers to use those stations to board would reduce the pressure on St Pancras. Unless the French aren't willing to provide the extra border guards (or Eurostar are unwilling to pay for them). I actually had no problems with St Pancras last year. There are queues but they move quickly once check in opens for a given train, and the use of e-gates speeds things up - yes, as a UK national I was allowed to use the French e-gates too, someone was waiting behind them with a stamp. Brussels on the other hand was reliant entirely upon manual checks for the Belgian side of the frontier so a queue built up and the train departed late.

TBH it surprised me that it was recorded (in a ‘oh yeah, I suppose it must be…’ way), but then I had never really thought about it (as I haven’t been considering using one more than once!)
I wonder how many people‘s first thought even considers that the scan is connected to the system, rather than being the hand held device doing what a guard does - check route, date, etc

There are plenty of guards who don't know how to exploit the capabilities of the system either. I can scan a ticket and tell you about your cigarette break in New Street.

It’s a bit of a railway myth that Mondays were down. Since passengers came back they have always been within a few % of the Tu-Th average.

It probably comes from people assuming that just because flexi workers are now only in the office TWThO that Mondays must therefore be down. What they forget is that Mondays have a separate market of long-distance commuters who travel down on the Monday, and spend the rest of the week in their flat in the city. This makes up a lot of the difference.

 

[Hadders]

Does that latter point - the weekly capping - affect season ticket sales? Doesn't that really impact within the London area, but not what I would have thought was the main market for season tickets, those travelling to London from outside the capital?

Contactless weekly capping covers a wide area much further than London. It goes as far out as Shenfield, Hertford, Welwyn Garden City, Luton Airport Parkway, Watford Junction, Reading and Gatwick Airport. Little point in purchasing season tickets from these places these days.

 

[Richardr]

Contactless weekly capping covers a wide area much further than London. It goes as far out as Shenfield, Hertford, Welwyn Garden City, Luton Airport Parkway, Watford Junction, Reading and Gatwick Airport. Little point in purchasing season tickets from these places these days.

How does one find out what the weekly cap is - I travel from St Albans City to London Thameslink?

 

[JonathanH]

How does one find out what the weekly cap is - I travel from St Albans City to London Thameslink?

It is here on the TfL website
https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/find-fares/national-rail-fares-beyond-zone-9?intcmp=54712
https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/national-rail-adult-fares.pdf

Pay as you go

You can use contactless (card or device) or an Oyster card to pay as you go for travel to and from:

Broxbourne, Rye House, St. Margarets, Ware and Hertford East

Gatwick Airport

Merstham, Redhill, Earlswood, Salfords and Horley

Ockendon, Chafford Hundred, Purfleet and Grays

Epsom

Cuffley, Bayford and Hertford North

Radlett and Potters Bar

You can only use contactless (card or device) to pay as you go for travel to and from:

Brookmans Park, Welham Green, Hatfield and Welwyn Garden City

St Albans City, Harpenden and Luton Airport Parkway

Iver, Langley, Slough, Burnham, Taplow, Maidenhead, Twyford and Reading

Daily and weekly caps apply to journeys to and from these stations.

The caps aren't always competitive against normal season tickets because they may offer greater validity due to the way zones 7 to 14 have been used for Oyster.

 

[dk1]

Ah, sorry, I didn’t realise that.

Part of the Pre pandemic change to seasons was theoretical; it was always assumed that seasons were used 10/10.5 times a week, but in reality the average was about 9. When Londoners started switching to contactless, this had the double whammy of reducing season ticket sales and passenger numbers, as the real figures started to displace theoretical figures. But the trains didn’t get any less busy!

My apologies, I don’t think I made that clear at all. Thank you for that explanation.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Southern and Thameslink generally not recovered as much of their passengers as other TOCs. Seeing Reedham, Coulsdon Town and Woodmansterne dropping down into the 10 Least used stations in London was a particular shock for me.

Given the extra services to Coulsdon Town have been pulled hardly surprising there and reedham have lost traffic you might as well goto Purley or Coulsdon Sth

 

[Horizon22]

Clearly Mondays and Fridays are now a dead horse as far as traditional commuting is concerned. The emphasis should now be on achieving these day's leisure potential.

Yes and no. I think one last attempt to boost it as more of a "shoulder peak" but I don't think it will work. That being said there's only so many people who are going to want to arrive in London Terminals for 0830 for 'leisure' travel and Mondays aren't so quiet anyway (probably noticeable but only a tiny bit). Fridays though...

As a few have alluded to here (see this post), it is very easy to see how Saturday is 100%+ of pre-Covid demand and the railway hasn't yet adapted well enough to this.

 

[Richardr]

It is here on the TfL website
https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/find-fares/national-rail-fares-beyond-zone-9?intcmp=54712
https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/national-rail-adult-fares.pdf



The caps aren't always competitive against normal season tickets because they may offer greater validity due to the way zones 7 to 14 have been used for Oyster.

It may just be me - but I couldn't find it there (I had looked earlier). I can't see St Albans City at all referenced from there.

The weekly from St Albans City to London Thameslink is £104.60 bought via Thameslink. I'd just like to see what the cap is for my weekly journey using contactless, given the earlier comment that it will have replaced many season tickets as it is cheaper (and how much I should be saving).

 

[yorksrob]

Yes and no. I think one last attempt to boost it as more of a "shoulder peak" but I don't think it will work. That being said there's only so many people who are going to want to arrive in London Terminals for 0830 for 'leisure' travel and Mondays aren't so quiet anyway (probably noticeable but only a tiny bit). Fridays though...

As a few have alluded to here (see this post), it is very easy to see how Saturday is 100%+ of pre-Covid demand and the railway hasn't yet adapted well enough to this.

If anything, it's de-adapting to it with the Government cuts to rolling stock.

Fridays could underperform with the decline in business and commuter travel, or they could overperform as a leisure day as Saturday currently does. The latter option has more potential for growing revenue, so I would go with that.

It's not just London terminals that are constrained by Friday restrictions. People wanting a day out at the seaside or in the country are also hit by Friday peak restrictions.

 

[railfan99]

Using Wiki, I was surprised to find a few English National Rail stations have allegedly already recorded greater patronage than pre-COVID-19.

According to ORR, the terminus at Felixstowe in 2017-18 had total boardings and alightings (double counting: should be 'boardings only') of 187,454 but in 2021-22 despite some months seeing lockdowns in England IIRC, the figure rose to 193,072.

Gunton on the Norwich-Sheringham line was another, rising from 19,188 in 2018-19 to 22,228 in 2021-22. I travelled on this line last year.

We all know pretty much worldwide peak hours weekday rail patronage has decreased due to WFH. There can be one-off factors affecting patronage such as a factory closing or a new larger (or more popular) school opening or expanding, new housing being occupied or a shopping centre expanding, commencing or closing.

Changes in train frequencies or stopping patterns can also have an effect, positive or negative.

While the vast majority of railway stations (perhaps 98 per cent) haven't sen patronage fully recover - though weekends can be a bright spot - are there any factors why a few stations like the two above are (in relative terms) 'booming'?

Your financial year ends in March doesn't it? So no statistics yet issued for 2022-23.

 

[dk1]

Your financial year ends in March doesn't it? So no statistics yet issued for 2022-23.

I can vouch for how busy the Sheringham line and to extent Felixstowe. Patronage and train capacity are way above what went before.

2022/23 figures are released late this year or early next.

 

[railfan99]

I can vouch for how busy the Sheringham line and to extent Felixstowe. Patronage and train capacity are way above what went before.

2022/23 figures are released late this year or early next.

Terrific! At Norwich on the morning I was travelling to Sheringham and Holt, more than 100 alighted from an early morning train that commenced at Sheringham.

Do you know why patronage there appears to have risen? Petrol prices haven't gone up much have they? All the more extraordinary given WFH.

 

[ar10642]

Terrific! At Norwich on the morning I was travelling to Sheringham and Holt, more than 100 alighted from an early morning train that commenced at Sheringham.

Do you know why patronage there appears to have risen? Petrol prices haven't gone up much have they? All the more extraordinary given WFH.

Fuel prices have gone down quite a bit from the peak last year. Maybe people like the new trains? The GA new ones are really nice.

 

[Trainbike46]

Terrific! At Norwich on the morning I was travelling to Sheringham and Holt, more than 100 alighted from an early morning train that commenced at Sheringham.

Do you know why patronage there appears to have risen? Petrol prices haven't gone up much have they? All the more extraordinary given WFH.

I don't have inside knowledge, but I suspect the massive increase in quality and capacity with the introduction of the 755s plays a role for the East Anglian branches

 

[dk1]

Terrific! At Norwich on the morning I was travelling to Sheringham and Holt, more than 100 alighted from an early morning train that commenced at Sheringham.

Do you know why patronage there appears to have risen? Petrol prices haven't gone up much have they? All the more extraordinary given WFH.

WFH is not really a thing on regional branch lines. Petrol prices went through the roof. So many staycations in 2021 too. Add to that the excellent offer GA now has with trains and plenty of advertising and there's your reason.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Mar 2023 ==

Fuel prices have gone down quite a bit from the peak last year. Maybe people like the new trains? The GA new ones are really nice.

The statistics in question are for the 2021/22 financial year so fuel prices and fuel shortages were a thing too. As you say the public really like the 755 fleet and passenger numbers seem extremely healthy on the Bittern line even in the low season.

 

[Kite159]

I don't have inside knowledge, but I suspect the massive increase in quality and capacity with the introduction of the 755s plays a role for the East Anglian branches

Mainly the capacity with 3/4 coach units replacing anything from a 1 coach 153 to a 3 coach 170. The days of a single 153 running between Lowestoft & Ipswich have gone

 

[Watershed]

Terrific! At Norwich on the morning I was travelling to Sheringham and Holt, more than 100 alighted from an early morning train that commenced at Sheringham.

Do you know why patronage there appears to have risen? Petrol prices haven't gone up much have they? All the more extraordinary given WFH.

These lines have benefitted from GA's brilliant new Stadler fleet, which started to be introduced in July 2019. They are a world apart from the cramped, horrid old 153s.

It wasn't really until the first lockdown that all the 153s had been withdrawn, so 2021-22 is the first year where the new trains had half a chance to shine. I anticipate 2022-23 will show strong growth as this was the first full year without lockdowns.

 

[dk1]

Even just after the first lockdown ended in the summer of 2020 yet Covid restrictions & social distancing were strict, I recall a lady doing pre-boarding passenger counts at Norwich. She told me as I passed that I’d got over 200 on my 4-car unit forming the 09:45 from platform 6 and still we picked up many more as usual enroute to the North Norfolk Coast. Commonplace now but during the pandemic a few didn’t like it but was anything to be out & about again.

 

[Meerkat]

Are there any numbers for whether UK holidays and days out have stayed high post covid restrictions - ie people who have got out the habit of dealing with the bother of going abroad or just found that actually staying in the UK is much better than they thought?

 

[LowLevel]

Not quite as good but it's quite common - provide the capacity and quality and people will use it. The Anglian side is transformational but even on EMR where battered 3 car 170s have been provided instead of a 153 that left people behind on Lincolnshire routes the 3 car trains are now very busy and often full and standing.

I took over a 3 car 170 at Nottingham that had come from Grimsby the other morning and it was totally wedged - getting on for 400 passengers. It then emptied out and was back up to 3 figures on arrival into Leicester.

Even after years of intentionally suppressing demand it shows people want to use their trains.

 

[fgwrich]

Tweet from Philip Haigh of Rail Mag:

Latest transport use figures from DfT (to March 13 2023) show rail reached 100% of pre-COVID numbers on February 10 2023 (and again on Feb 11-14 and 22). Graph shows 28-day moving average as solid bold line for road, heavy dashes for rail, light dashes for Tube.

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1635955580522184707?s=46&t=Uj1PminkMk5uLaRpDQX48Q

So, will this result in a slowing down of the proposed cutbacks I hope?

 

[Kite159]

How much of that is down to the central section of the Elizabeth line gaining national rail passengers who would have otherwise used LU/DLR? (For example someone from Ealing heading to Stratford or someone from Dartford heading towards Canary Wharf)

 

[Snow1964]

Tweet from Philip Haigh of Rail Mag:

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1635955580522184707?s=46&t=Uj1PminkMk5uLaRpDQX48Q

So, will this result in a slowing down of the proposed cutbacks I hope?

It is also on DfT website.
Data from column G (rail)
stars are weekends

10 Feb 100%
11 Feb 100% *
12 Feb 101% *
13 Feb 100%
14 Feb 100%
15 Feb 93%
16 Feb 93%
17 Feb 92%
18 Feb 91% *
19 Feb 91% *
20 Feb 92%
21 Feb 93%
22 Feb 103%
23 Feb 96%
24 Feb 97%
25 Feb 98% *
26 Feb 98% *
27 Feb 97%
28 Feb 97%
1 Mar 92%
2 Mar 97%
3 Mar 92%
4 Mar 92% *
5 Mar 92% *

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

 

[Meerkat]

Tweet from Philip Haigh of Rail Mag:

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1635955580522184707?s=46&t=Uj1PminkMk5uLaRpDQX48Q

So, will this result in a slowing down of the proposed cutbacks I hope?

What about revenue?

 

[dk1]

What about revenue?

That’ll still be down somewhat.

 

[43096]

It’s all well and good highlighting usage. Revenue is what DfT and the Treasury are interested in.

What does that look like versus both pre-pandemic values and current costs.

 

[Krokodil]

So, will this result in a slowing down of the proposed cutbacks I hope?

No, the government will just find a different excuse.

How much of that is down to the central section of the Elizabeth line gaining national rail passengers who would have otherwise used LU/DLR? (For example someone from Ealing heading to Stratford or someone from Dartford heading towards Canary Wharf)

Another example of "provide a decent service and people will use it" to add to the GA example further up. There's a lot of untapped demand if the government was prepared to provide some investment.

That’ll still be down somewhat.

In no small part due to Delay Repay I suppose. TPE must be losing a fortune in refunds.

Didn't Northern's MD recently state that revenue had recovered to pre-pandemic levels? In part due to a revenue protection clampdown [and probably some poaching from TPE].

 

[Snow1964]

What about revenue?

According to this article over 90% of the Early 2020 value

I suspect it is not even, with leisure based TOCs probably nearer or above 100%, and business and commuter based TOCs below average of pre pandemic revenue

New national rail passengers milestone reached in February 2023 – now over 100% of pre-Covid levels

The DfT has today published figures showing that national rail passenger numbers have reached over 100% of pre-Covid levels for the first time sinc...

www.politicshome.com

Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of the Railway Industry Association, said: “These are amazing figures, and ones that everyone in rail should take pride in. To reach 103% of pre-Covid passenger levels barely a year on from pandemic rules being relaxed is an amazing achievement, and shows that many people are returning to their previous routines of working, visiting friends and family, and enjoying leisure and hospitality. The remote working revolution has perhaps been over-reported too, with ‘hybrid-workers’ increasingly spending more time in the workplace.

“We should also bear in mind that today’s figures are being compared to March 2020, the end of the second highest period of passengers in UK rail history. And that in the last year we have had significant industrial action and some poor service levels on some parts of the network. Imagine how much higher these passenger figures would be were this not the case.

“We are also hearing that passenger revenues are also hitting 90%, a post-Covid high. Given all this, the Railway Industry Association and our members again urge the UK Government – especially during Spring Budget week – not to take its foot off the pedal of rail investment. The UK will clearly need more rail capacity both now and in the future, as the numbers using rail go up. Investing in rail also supports thousands of jobs, billions of pounds of GVA and Treasury revenues, and can help the Government with its levelling-up and decarbonisation agendas”.

 

[Clarence Yard]

The article isn’t definite - “hearing 90%” is just him repeating a rumour and he is saying “2020 value” as well, that’s not 2023 value and whatever it actually is has to be matched against 2023 costs.

 

[43096]

The article isn’t definite - “hearing 90%” is just him repeating a rumour and he is saying “2020 value” as well, that’s not 2023 value and whatever it actually is has to be matched against 2023 costs.

Indeed. The key numbers are 2019/20 revenue, 2019/20 costs, 2022/23 revenue and 2022/23 costs.