Which of these will disappear from the UK first?

[telstarbox]

All of these were well established by 1950 but will any of them be around in 2050? Over to you for some futurology.

 

[Bevan Price]

None of them will completely disappear by 2050, or even by 2100, but petrol/diesel vehicles may find it difficult to get legal, affordable supplies of fuel by 2100.

 

[telstarbox]

I'd be surprised if those vehicles are still on the road much after 2050!

 

[najaB]

None of them will completely disappear by 2050, or even by 2100, but petrol/diesel vehicles may find it difficult to get legal, affordable supplies of fuel by 2100.

I suspect there will be sustainable fuels available to replace petroleum-derived petrol and diesel.

 

[778]

I voted petrol and diesel vehicles, but I think that physical cash will be gone before any of those will.

 

[fwsmVor]

Christianity will be kept alive by immigrants from Africa and India: anecdotally, my parish's two priests are both from there. There are plenty (relatively) of 50s and 60s vehicles still going now, so I can't see there not being a dedicated community of petrolheads who've converted their vintage 2016 Ford Focuses to run on ethanol and bionic duckweed, and the army will of course still have fossil fuel vehicles (hard to find a plug in the middle of Siberia). There are still people my age (21) who are addicted to tobacco, so they could keep it going a good 60 or so years, though obviously that's dependent on it remaining legal: personally, now that public spaces are thankfully mostly smoke-free, I can't see much political will to stop people from stinking up their own homes with their own money.
The Royal Mail, however, is absolutely creaking. As the very last people who retired before it became embarrassing to not know how to send an email die, letters will almost certainly stop being subsidised at all, and everyone who moaned about the sentimental value of sending bits of paper to each other will suddenly realise that it's not actually worth it at small parcel rates. Its parcel business has a better future, obviously, but I can't see it surviving, unfortunately, if its workers keep going on strike to not have to work in the conditions its competitors impose.

 

[najaB]

Its parcel business has a better future, obviously, but I can't see it surviving, unfortunately, if its workers keep going on strike to not have to work in the conditions its competitors impose.

Not sure I agree with that one - it's much more likely that the employees at the competitors will start agitating for better conditions.

 

[Howardh]

Royal Mail's the obvious one for me, email appears to have replaced the bulk of standard mail, although the internet has caused the huge increase in parcels etc, but in future I see the Royal Mail being discontinued to be replaced by private carriers. Be a sad loss but probably inevitable.

As for petrol and diesel, something will have to power antique vehicles, so some will be around for that. At some events it's possible to watch steam engines...could coal last longer than petrol/diesel??

 

[lachlan]

Royal Mail's the obvious one for me, email appears to have replaced the bulk of standard mail, although the internet has caused the huge increase in parcels etc, but in future I see the Royal Mail being discontinued to be replaced by private carriers. Be a sad loss but probably inevitable.

As for petrol and diesel, something will have to power antique vehicles, so some will be around for that. At some events it's possible to watch steam engines...could coal last longer than petrol/diesel??

It may become too expensive and difficult to source fuel for old vehicles. I for one would be happy not to have stinky old cars polluting my air.

 

[Cdd89]

Interesting thread idea!

I was 50-50 between post and petrol cars, but on balance I went for post (by which I really mean letters). As far as I can tell the Royal Mail is sustaining itself on junk mail. If the will were there, it wouldn’t take a lot to eliminate the few critical users. The price of postage going up is increasingly a death spiral and a sign of it becoming a specialist service.

Petrol cars might be gone by then, but there is no shortage of demand for them for the foreseeable future. A friend of mine (who can afford one, has a driveway, and would almost never exceed its maximum range) is deterred by the hassle of plugging it in every time they get home. They could do so less often, but then they’d worry that they’d forget. I didn’t formerly think drive-on charge was that important but now I do think it would be a killer feature for some.

 

[pdq]

Realistically it can only be the postal service answer if 'disappear' is taken literally. RM could withdraw their letters service, and that would be that. All the others have long 'tails' where usage will decline at whatever rate, but will probably never go completely. Even ICE vehicles will last a very long time in enthusiasts' collections and museums.

 

[telstarbox]

I have added Cash to the poll because I forgot this originally.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Cash seems to have largely disappeared from Norway and Sweden in the last 10-15 years, the UK is not like Germany with a strong emotional attachment to cash, for historical reasons, so I can’t imagine it lasting long in the UK

 

[Noddy]

It may become too expensive and difficult to source fuel for old vehicles. I for one would be happy not to have stinky old cars polluting my air.

As a massive EV advocate, I still think small numbers of petrol and diesel cars will be around for many years. Much like steam engines today they will be very interesting heritage pieces (let’s face it the internal combustion engine is an amazing piece of engineering) in museums and turn up at heritage shows (etc). They’ll use (expensive) synthetic fuel.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a massive EV advocate, I still think small numbers of petrol and diesel cars will be around for many years. Much like steam engines today they will be very interesting heritage pieces (let’s face it the internal combustion engine is an amazing piece of engineering) in museums and turn up at heritage shows (etc). They’ll use (expensive) synthetic fuel.

Agreed. Indeed, once EV adoption gets past maybe 80-90%, ULEZs and the likes will serve little purpose and may well be abolished as they'll cost money to police. As such it may well become slightly easier (if expensive for the synthetic fuel) to use classics as daily drivers if you really hate EVs, though by say 2060 they'll have been perfected, I suspect with very long ranges (maybe 1K miles) and chargers everywhere.

 

[PeterY]

An interesting post and to be honest I don't know which will disappear first.

 

[negone]

I have added Cash to the poll because I forgot this originally.

I would also add Newspapers.

 

[mikeg]

I put petrol and diesel vehicles - at least new, mass-market petrol and diesel vehicles.

Smoking tobacco may be one, at least legally, but we all know prohibition doesn't work. Any attempt to ban it will be doomed to failure.
Cash will continue in but will play an ever more marginal role.
Post via the Royal Mail will continue, maybe with some reductions to service. The fact is it's still one of the most efficient ways to send a small physical item.
Christianity won't disappear, it'll just become a minority thing, with irreligion being the dominating force. What wouldn't surprise me is if the Church of England ceases to be the state church, but again such policy tends to lag societal norms. Christian worship in schools days should be numbered, we're unusual in the developed world for this and with irreligion growing I can't see it lasting long in secular schools. If I were a parent I'd be in a difficult position: I wouldn't want my child indoctrinated with religion but wouldn't want them to feel 'left out' of an aspect of school.

 

[PeterY]

I would also add Newspapers.

I think Negone you could well be right.

 

[najaB]

I have added Cash to the poll because I forgot this originally.

I would guess that for something like 70% of the population, cash has already disappeared from day to day life - hastened by the pandemic and the Government's preference for benefits and pensions to be paid directly into bank accounts.

 

[Snow1964]

I think Royal Mail is going to survive a while because of small packets, but might have fallen to 2 or 3 deliveries a week within 3-5 years (rather than 6 days a week)

 

[Runningaround]

Cash seems to have largely disappeared from Norway and Sweden in the last 10-15 years, the UK is not like Germany with a strong emotional attachment to cash, for historical reasons, so I can’t imagine it lasting long in the UK

Oh dear we already have football programme collectors going into meltdown over them going online, what will coin collectors do? They'll have to wait for Michael Burke to pop up with an anniversary edition £5 coin every few years.

 

[PTR 444]

I have added Cash to the poll because I forgot this originally.

You might also want to add as options to your poll, just for extra comparison:

• CDs
• Landline telephones
• British Monarchy
• Everybody alive today

 

[najaB]

You might also want to add as options to your poll, just for extra comparison:

• CDs
• Landline telephones
• British Monarchy
• Everybody alive today

A sizeable proportion of people alive today will still be alive in 2050. And a decent number will be alive in 2100.

 

[PTR 444]

A sizeable proportion of people alive today will still be alive in 2050. And a decent number will be alive in 2100.

True, although I personally believe that all other options on the poll will still be around in some form or another in 2050. Taking into account what was written in the opening post, a better group of people that fits the criteria might be WW2 survivors or England players that went on to win the 1966 World Cup.

 

[Bevan Price]

A sizeable proportion of people alive today will still be alive in 2050. And a decent number will be alive in 2100.

Unless Putin or successor goes totally mad / berserk.......

 

[Intercity110]

I sadly chose royal mail. The privatization was incredibly stupid and probably hindered more than helped it.

 

[AM9]

Agreed. Indeed, once EV adoption gets past maybe 80-90%, ULEZs and the likes will serve little purpose and may well be abolished as they'll cost money to police. As such it may well become slightly easier (if expensive for the synthetic fuel) to use classics as daily drivers if you really hate EVs, though by say 2060 they'll have been perfected, I suspect with very long ranges (maybe 1K miles) and chargers everywhere.
corresponding geographical area of enforcement.

With few non-compliant vehicles around, other tracking methods will be deployed to determine the movement of those remaining very conspicuous vehicles. Synthetic fuel does not necessarily remove the health damaging impact of IC vehicles which is the main driver of ULEZ zones.
For petrolheads, the awakening of the courts to the health impact effectively spells the rapid retirement of virtually all IC motive power, and by 2050, they will not only be regarded as socially unacceptable but also effectiverly illegal.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I sadly chose royal mail. The privatization was incredibly stupid and probably hindered more than helped it.

I'm fairly convinced the privatisation wasn't intended to help it, rather to remove a potentially dying service from Government responsibility so the private sector can either turn it into yet another parcel courier or close it down when demand for letter post shrinks enough for it not to be viable at all. Much easier to not renew a contract than close a whole state enterprise.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Mar 2023 ==

With few non-compliant vehicles around, other tracking methods will be deployed to determine the movement of those remaining very conspicuous vehicles. Synthetic fuel does not necessarily remove the health damaging impact of IC vehicles which is the main driver of ULEZ zones.

I don't agree simply because of the numbers. One ICE has barely any effect (which is why I don't see much point in restricting car use in rural areas). Lots do. So if 90% of cars are EVs, it just isn't worth the effort.

 

[PeterY]

You might also want to add as options to your poll, just for extra comparison:

• CDs
• Landline telephones
• British Monarchy
• Everybody alive today

and DVD's.

I think CD's and physical formats of media will still be around but they will become collectable items.

I haven't had a landline since I got my first mobile. Mind you my mobile phone is a dumb phone.

I still use cash quite a lot.

Royal Mail only deliver letters I don't like I waiting for my council tax bill to arrive.

I think the monarchy will still be around in some shape.

Everybody alive today, I'm getting on a bit.