Future of TPE

[Bletchleyite]

Once a cut back but deliverable service is running, From that point TPx can rebuild up, with new staff in place to suit before the timetable expands again back to more what they would like.

Which is EXACTLY what Avanti did. I don't see why it's hard for FirstGroup to do the same thing at another TOC.

 

[ic31420]

Which is EXACTLY what Avanti did. I don't see why it's hard for FirstGroup to do the same thing at another TOC.

In my eyes it's the only way. A 2 hourly train that reliably runs is better than an hourly service that may or may not turn up at random.

There are staff shortages in a lot of industries at the moment, but in a lot of cases you can scrape by but you can't scrape by without a member of traincrew. That missing member of staff may have been supposed to work 3 trains that will be cancelled but of course it snowballs that train not working A to B means it isnt in place for the service rounding B to C and so on. The first train not working means the conductor that worked that service isn't in the right place to work their next service and so it snowballs.

Simplification and reduction is the only answer in my eyes. Despite the likelyhood it will introduce some short term inefficiencies and possible fleet reduction

 

[mike57]

I agree that a reduced but deliverable timetable is far preferable to the current shambles.

That needs to backed up with running longest possible formations to compensate for the reduced services. Yet again we are getting 3 car units on Leeds Manchester semi fast and fast services.

My own thoughts for a deliverable timetable for TPE North would be 1 tph Newcastle - Liverpool, and 1tph Piccadilly - Leeds extending alternate hours to Hull and Middlesborough. Scarborough becomes a shuttle to York again. Then run a Huddersfield - Piccadilly stopper 1 tph. Try and path them so that the Middlesbrough service makes a decent connection with the Northern service to Hull in Leeds.

2 tph plus the stopper West of Huddersfield and the Scarborough shuttle should be deliverable. Make sure all core services are minimum 5 car.

Once you have that running smoothly then introduce additional services when resources allow.

 

[MattRat]

So I heard a rumour of the DFT curtailing XC services as part of a project to bin the HSTs with no replacement, as well as make the 220s and 221s less crowded (shorter routes require less trains for the same service frequency).

Now, why this is relevant is, could the same happen the TPE? Say they drop Lime Street, Newcastle and Edinburgh (ECML) from their services (either straight up removal or shortening of routes), that would require less staff, and also less crew changes under the current system (feel free to suggest other cuts).

I can see the uproar now, but it honestly sounds like something the DFT would consider.

 

[nr758123]

Are they that bad compared to other TOC's. Like Northern, perhaps?

Yes they are. I experience TPE on a daily basis. Northern never got close to 25% cancellations. Northern, when they ran the local stopping service Huddersfield-Manchester, never got as bad as cancelling 5 out of 6 trains in the morning peak (which is what happened today). Even First North Western were never this bad.

On other words, is this a network wide issue, and TPE are getting the flak because of politicians and or the press having an agenda?

TPE got a very easy ride in the 2018 timetable meltdown, when all the attention was on Northern and some train company down in London. Again this is from my own lived experience, commuting on TPE from the station which was easily the worst on the entire network for punctuality and reliability in 2018 according to ontimetrains.
It also took a long time in 2022 before there was any media and press attention on TPE. It was all about Avanti, because Avanti's trains go to and from London and are considered important, whilst TPEs don't and are therefore not considered important.

By flak from politicians, I assume you are talking about, amongst other things, Mayor Tracy Brabin's media appearances. Like me, she commutes from Slaithwaite, and I want her to carry on shouting from the rooftops until the DfT do whatever is necessary to provide the level of service which we as passengers are entitled to expect. This situation would not have been tolerated and ignored for so long if it had been in the South East

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

One of my neighbours who has been stranded at York a few times by TPE returning to Manchester Airport thinks that "TUPE for TPE" would make a good motto.

 

[Peter Sarf]

For me the first step in sorting TPE is the installation of a "big bad kick ass MD" a slash and burn and cloth cutting exercise.

Simplify simplify simplify

For me you send the 397 WCML services over to the WCML operation.

You then look at the crews and vehicles available on a daily basis NOT what you theoretically have on a good day and when OT offered is taken up. You then come up with a simplified timetable that actually works and makes the best of what you have it will mean less services run, but those that are advertised will run and where possible with longer trains.

But the key thing is that the advertised services will run, when they say they will. Yes there will be negative press "tpx cuts services to GreatTown form 15 trains a day to 12" but you won't get they " tpx cancel 35% of trains each day" headlines.

As a customer I need that confidence that there is a pretty good chance my train will run. I can't handle or plan around the current situation of random cancellations.

Once this is running the crews will be happier naturally, nobody likes working a failure or getting constantly moaned at by customers. With less requirements for OT to run the day to day service the staff will be less able to hold the job up and those OT hungry monsters (we all know them) will have to take the OT that's on offer of they want it.

All of a sudden the cancellations fall, because we're not Planning, Promising and taking Payments to run service we currently havnt a hope of running.' Its clear that if you go on TPX website you can buy tickets for next week for trains that just won't run.

Once a cut back but deliverable service is running, From that point TPx can rebuild up, with new staff in place to suit before the timetable expands again back to more what they would like.

YES YES YES.

Is that totally fair?
Are they that bad compared to other TOC's. Like Northern, perhaps?
On other words, is this a network wide issue, and TPE are getting the flak because of politicians and or the press having an agenda?

TPE might have excuses for the diabolical level of cancellations (I am not 100% sure) BUT it is how TPE deal with it that could be drastically improved. They behave like they live in a dream world.

In my eyes it's the only way. A 2 hourly train that reliably runs is better than an hourly service that may or may not turn up at random.

There are staff shortages in a lot of industries at the moment, but in a lot of cases you can scrape by but you can't scrape by without a member of traincrew. That missing member of staff may have been supposed to work 3 trains that will be cancelled but of course it snowballs that train not working A to B means it isnt in place for the service rounding B to C and so on. The first train not working means the conductor that worked that service isn't in the right place to work their next service and so it snowballs.

Simplification and reduction is the only answer in my eyes. Despite the likelyhood it will introduce some short term inefficiencies and possible fleet reduction

Yes - simplification.

So I heard a rumour of the DFT curtailing XC services as part of a project to bin the HSTs with no replacement, as well as make the 220s and 221s less crowded (shorter routes require less trains for the same service frequency).

Now, why this is relevant is, could the same happen the TPE? Say they drop Lime Street, Newcastle and Edinburgh (ECML) from their services (either straight up removal or shortening of routes), that would require less staff, and also less crew changes under the current system (feel free to suggest other cuts).

I can see the uproar now, but it honestly sounds like something the DFT would consider.

Yes. TPE need to bite the bullet, be realistic and stop selling tickets for trains that will not run.

There will still be some cancellations due to more normal reasons but at least a more realistic sub set of the time table will prevail. Works wonders for staff morale and customer satisfaction.

Oh and what does run should be the longest possible trains until the frequency can be increased.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Oh and what does run should be the longest possible trains until the frequency can be increased.

Would any stations' platform lengths served by those services be affected by that aspiration?

 

[185143]

Would any stations' platform lengths served by those services be affected by that aspiration?

All TPE stock has a form of Selective Door Opening, so that's a non issue really.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Would any stations' platform lengths served by those services be affected by that aspiration?

I was thinking of any cases where a single 3-car 185 turns up instead of a 68+Mk5s or pair of 185s. But there is also selective door operation.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

All TPE stock has a form of Selective Door Opening, so that's a non issue really.

My point, whilst acknowledging that, is that TPE units are not corridor-connected, noting that the posting to which I referred did state "longest possible trains"

 

[daodao]

I agree that a reduced but deliverable timetable is far preferable to the current shambles.

That needs to backed up with running longest possible formations to compensate for the reduced services. Yet again we are getting 3 car units on Leeds Manchester semi fast and fast services.

My own thoughts for a deliverable timetable for TPE North would be 1 tph Newcastle - Liverpool, and 1tph Piccadilly - Leeds extending alternate hours to Hull and Middlesborough. Scarborough becomes a shuttle to York again. Then run a Huddersfield - Piccadilly stopper 1 tph. Try and path them so that the Middlesbrough service makes a decent connection with the Northern service to Hull in Leeds.

2 tph plus the stopper West of Huddersfield and the Scarborough shuttle should be deliverable. Make sure all core services are minimum 5 car.

Once you have that running smoothly then introduce additional services when resources allow.

A sensible proposal for the short-to-medium term and still significantly better than the service provided on the Standedge line 50+ years ago.

 

[yorksrob]

Is that totally fair?
Are they that bad compared to other TOC's. Like Northern, perhaps?
On other words, is this a network wide issue, and TPE are getting the flak because of politicians and or the press having an agenda?

I would say so. By and large, I find most Northern routes to be fairly reliable at the moment (excepting those such as Castleford - Huddersfield which have a curtailed timetable).

In my eyes it's the only way. A 2 hourly train that reliably runs is better than an hourly service that may or may not turn up at random.

There are staff shortages in a lot of industries at the moment, but in a lot of cases you can scrape by but you can't scrape by without a member of traincrew. That missing member of staff may have been supposed to work 3 trains that will be cancelled but of course it snowballs that train not working A to B means it isnt in place for the service rounding B to C and so on. The first train not working means the conductor that worked that service isn't in the right place to work their next service and so it snowballs.

Simplification and reduction is the only answer in my eyes. Despite the likelyhood it will introduce some short term inefficiencies and possible fleet reduction

And will we get this missing fleet back when the numbers upturn again ? I doubt it with this Government somehow.

 

[mike57]

A sensible proposal for the short-to-medium term and still significantly better than the service provided on the Standedge line 50+ years ago.

When I first started using Transpennine regularly at the start of the 80s it was 6 or 7 Mk2s every hour, Current service, once you take cancellations into account isnt much better capacity wise, and is far less reliable.

I actually think after reliability the big issue with TPE north is the continuing use of 3 car units. Its a waste of paths when trying to run a 'full' timetable, takes more personnel to deliver the service and results in severe overcrowding at times, to the point of leaving people behind. I would run a 20 min interval service Manchester - Leeds and reverse, and increase train lengths to the maximum possible at the 'main' stations, and remove all the smaller stops for the intercity service. (Newcastle and intermediate stops 1tph) York/Hull & Selby - Leeds - Huddersfield - Manchester - (Liverpool 1tph).

I also think that during a period of limited resources all extensions to the core service should be canned, Edinburgh via ECML already has an adequate service, Saltburn/Redcar should be Northern, Scarborough should be a shuttle, Manchester Airport is a pain, either via Castlefield or crossing station throat at Piccadilly, and there are plenty of connecting services, so just concentrate everything on the Hull/York - Manchester core and only add in extensions once reliability on the core passes a defined level and proven resources exist to support them.

What I find annoying is that none of this is difficult, it just needs some firm management to say "This is what we will do"

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Manchester Airport is a pain, either via Castlefield or crossing station throat at Piccadilly, and there are plenty of connecting services'

Unfortunately, that is a continuation of something that has been a point of discussion on internet forums for very many years now and we are still in the same situation where we were when those discussions first surfaced. I do wonder what is now the total number of airport car park spaces at Manchester Airport on its many car park sites that surround the airport.

 

[RailWonderer]

Avanti managed it.

The TPE MD said these problems aren't going to be solved anytime soon. Even with a reduced more deliverable timetable (which I agree with) TPE aren't going to rebuild and chances are it will stay that way for a while to come.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Mar 2023 ==

I actually think after reliability the big issue with TPE north is the continuing use of 3 car units. Its a waste of paths when trying to run a 'full' timetable, takes more personnel to deliver the service and results in severe overcrowding at times, to the point of leaving people behind. I would run a 20 min interval service Manchester - Leeds and reverse, and increase train lengths to the maximum possible at the 'main' stations, and remove all the smaller stops for the intercity service. (Newcastle and intermediate stops 1tph) York/Hull & Selby - Leeds - Huddersfield - Manchester - (Liverpool 1tph).

I also think that during a period of limited resources all extensions to the core service should be canned, Edinburgh via ECML already has an adequate service, Saltburn/Redcar should be Northern, Scarborough should be a shuttle, Manchester Airport is a pain, either via Castlefield or crossing station throat at Piccadilly, and there are plenty of connecting services, so just concentrate everything on the Hull/York - Manchester core and only add in extensions once reliability on the core passes a defined level and proven resources exist to support them.

What I find annoying is that none of this is difficult, it just needs some firm management to say "This is what we will do"

Saltburn and Liverpool were franchise requirements I think although Edinburgh should definitely be axed and the Anglo Scots via the WCML handed to Avanti (though I doubt the latter will happen).

 

[185143]

My point, whilst acknowledging that, is that TPE units are not corridor-connected, noting that the posting to which I referred did state "longest possible trains"

True, and admittedly I didn't consider that.

But there's a station in Cornwall, possibly Hayle or Redruth, that GWR serve with 10 car IETS. The entire rear unit is locked out.

 

[mike57]

Even with a reduced more deliverable timetable (which I agree with) TPE aren't going to rebuild and chances are it will stay that way for a while to come.

I think there are two issues here, escape from the current mess will take time and even if barriers to resolution were removed it would still be some time before a full timetable could be delivered, and I would question if the old timetable model was the right one. I think reliability and cost would be better served by fewer longer trains, as I alluded to above.

The other issue is the failure to introduce a robust emergency timetable which reflects the resources currently available, with enough padding to ensure that it doesn't fall apart at the first hint of disruption. To me this is a much higher priority and should have been done months ago. As others have said a timetabled 2 hourly service that runs is much better than an hourly service where a random 50% are cancelled. The fact that it hasn't happened is a sad reflection on the current arrangements to deliver rail services.

I think TPE as a ToC are probably finished, the current press scrutiny means that the government will want to be seen to be doing something, and thats the easiest way even if its only cosmetic. Failure to address the problems when they first became apparent, the use of cancellations the day before, as well as multiple crews working services like Newcastle Liverpool have all contributed to the appalling service currently offered by TPE and a lot of these problems are self inflicted.

 

[nr758123]

Saltburn and Liverpool were franchise requirements

I'm fairly sure Saltburn was proposed after the franchise started. It was a gimmick with the sole purpose of helping Ben Houchen's re-election bid. Saltburn has two trains per hour operated by Northern. It doesn't justify a third, especially not when TPE are incapable of providing a half-decent service on the busy parts of their network like the Huddersfield-Leeds commuter market.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The other issue is the failure to introduce a robust emergency timetable which reflects the resources currently available, with enough padding to ensure that it doesn't fall apart at the first hint of disruption. To me this is a much higher priority and should have been done months ago. As others have said a timetabled 2 hourly service that runs is much better than an hourly service where a random 50% are cancelled. The fact that it hasn't happened is a sad reflection on the current arrangements to deliver rail services.

As I said when Avanti were going through this, if one train per day is all you can reliably operate, that's what you run. ANY reliable timetable is better than one which is a work of fiction, because it allows people to plan, even if that planning might mean driving or arranging a shared taxi.

It won't be that low, though. For Avanti the point it settled was slightly below a halved service (4tph from Euston rather than the usual 9), I suspect for TPE it might be less than that but I suspect not much less. TPE might want to consider options which are a bit more recast in the medium term, e.g. whether there is a core InterCity fast service that can operate using 10-car 80x/9-car 185 formations*, with shorter trains doing more local services, in order to maintain capacity. But to start with, so it can be done quickly, just lop a load of diagrams out, that's how Avanti did it.

* e.g. Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds-York-Newcastle with no other stops, though it depends on what the platform lengths are.

 

[Meerkat]

I was about to ask how many 185's you can string together. If they have SDO then surely you can just designate particular units as eg Manchester-Leeds only. I assume a double track railway isnt going to have the points and signals issues that you get on passing loops.
Though....do TPE insist on a guard in each unit?

 

[Peter Sarf]

As I said when Avanti were going through this, if one train per day is all you can reliably operate, that's what you run. ANY reliable timetable is better than one which is a work of fiction, because it allows people to plan, even if that planning might mean driving or arranging a shared taxi.

It won't be that low, though. For Avanti the point it settled was slightly below a halved service (4tph from Euston rather than the usual 9), I suspect for TPE it might be less than that but I suspect not much less. TPE might want to consider options which are a bit more recast in the medium term, e.g. whether there is a core InterCity fast service that can operate using 10-car 80x/9-car 185 formations*, with shorter trains doing more local services, in order to maintain capacity. But to start with, so it can be done quickly, just lop a load of diagrams out, that's how Avanti did it.

* e.g. Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds-York-Newcastle with no other stops, though it depends on what the platform lengths are.

It says to me that TPE have no interest in the customer. TPE just do not seem capable of considering there are human beings trying to rely on TPEs desperate attempts to ignore reality.

 

[mike57]

* e.g. Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds-York-Newcastle with no other stops, though it depends on what the platform lengths are.

10 cars of 80x looks to be ~260m. 3 x 3 car 185s would be just over 210m.

If things are really bad cut back the York - Newcastle section as that route has plenty of other operators/trains. The core need is for the York/Hull - Manchester, as the other options on this route are more limited or much slower.

 

[MattRat]

The TPE MD said these problems aren't going to be solved anytime soon. Even with a reduced more deliverable timetable (which I agree with) TPE aren't going to rebuild and chances are it will stay that way for a while to come.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Mar 2023 ==


Saltburn and Liverpool were franchise requirements I think although Edinburgh should definitely be axed and the Anglo Scots via the WCML handed to Avanti (though I doubt the latter will happen).

You could probably cut the Newcastle service back to York and it would be fine too.

But if Liverpool can't be cut then the only other (even more controversial) option is to look at Manchester. Pretty certain Avanti already have a service that goes via Manchester to Scotland, so honestly cutting that not only helps TPE, but capacity in Manchester. Then we have the route duplicates that aren't actually needed, as the Liverpool ones stop at Manchester anyway. You'd need to guarantee length, but it could theoretically work as you have more concentrated crew to make it work.

 

[Meerkat]

Is cutting whole sections (such as York-Newcastle) rather than reducing services a good idea - wouldn't it extend the difficulties as drivers and guards would need a route refresh before restarting?

 

[Peter Sarf]

Is cutting whole sections (such as York-Newcastle) rather than reducing services a good idea - wouldn't it extend the difficulties as drivers and guards would need a route refresh before restarting?

Yes the reality is determining what staff can operate what trains and then come up with the least worst REALISTIC service drawn from the existing timetable.

 

[mike57]

Yes the reality is determining what staff can operate what trains and then come up with the least worst REALISTIC service drawn from the existing timetable.

I agree it could be a problem, but I think the TPE issues are going to be ongoing for some considerable time, maybe on the scale of years not months (after all with a small break during covid its been ongoing for 5 years in May), and in that situation you have to look at what is needed v wanted. York/Hull -Manchester is a need, anything beyond that can be sacrificed until conditions allow the network to grow again. Maybe keep a couple of services a day to the outlying points to retain knowledge, and then when resources allow reintroduce a full service.

There is also the Huddersfield Dewsbury upgade in the pipeline, and that is going to further complicate matters. So TPE need to prioritise route knowledge over the Calder Valley route above serving places already adequately served by other operators.

As a passenger at Manchester if I am making for Newcastle, and there is a train to York I can complete my journey with some minor additional inconvenience, if however the next 2 or 3 services from Manchester north east are cancelled then I am going to be very late, and in all probability going to have an unpleasant journey as the train will be massivley overcrowded. (Been there, got that T shirt).

Given the current state of service and up coming works TPE should be taking a long hard look at what they do, and shouldn't be running any services beyond the core routes until the service on those routes reaches an acceptable level, and it is a very long way from that currently.

Prior to the meltdown in 2018 there were roughly 700 seats per hour between Leeds and Manchester each way throughout the day on the semi fast/fast services, the first goal should be to get back to that state or better on a consistent basis, i.e. with no gaps apart from during disruption unrealated to TPE issues. If that means fewer longer trains, and pruning the extremities thats fine, do it. Once that service pattern, whatever it looks like has run OK for some weeks or months and resources are in place, take the next small step, and if that doesn't work back track. Be very conservative in thinking to ensure resiliance, and make small incremental improvements. Once the service is seen to run reliably public confidence will return.

The south route is somewhat different, as Grimsby and Cleethorpes are much more reliant on TPE. Maybe run Cleethorpes - Doncaster as a shuttle and then run Doncaster - Manchester Pic as another service. Forget about Liverpool via the CLC or Man Airport, they are served by others.

 

[swt_passenger]

So I heard a rumour of the DFT curtailing XC services as part of a project to bin the HSTs with no replacement, as well as make the 220s and 221s less crowded (shorter routes require less trains for the same service frequency).

Now, why this is relevant is, could the same happen the TPE? Say they drop Lime Street, Newcastle and Edinburgh (ECML) from their services (either straight up removal or shortening of routes), that would require less staff, and also less crew changes under the current system (feel free to suggest other cuts).

I can see the uproar now, but it honestly sounds like something the DFT would consider.

But they aren’t curtailing XC services. In the appropriate threads it’s clear they are actually reintroducing services that are currently missing, such as hourly services to Bournemouth from May. But that will obviously mean going back to single units rather than doubling them up.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The south route is somewhat different, as Grimsby and Cleethorpes are much more reliant on TPE. Maybe run Cleethorpes - Doncaster as a shuttle and then run Doncaster - Manchester Pic as another service. Forget about Liverpool via the CLC or Man Airport, they are served by others.

At this moment in time, what non-TPE services actually serve Manchester Airport?

 

[mike57]

At this moment in time, what non-TPE services actually serve Manchester Airport?

Northern to Blackpool, Liverpool, hourly Crewe Manchester and Windermere/Barrow services
Transport for Wales to North Wales
TPE WCML services which really dont have anywhere else to go.