Northern Ireland Brexit Trade Deal

[dangie]

After many months/years it appears there will at last be a UK/EU Brexit Trade Deal. This has to be positive news.

I rarely get into politics, but what’s the betting that no matter what the details of the trade deal are, the Labour Party will say it’s a bad deal? Just for once why can’t politicians work towards the good of the people and not the good of their party or self interest.

 

[DarloRich]

Is it not the latest iteration of the Brexit/NI issue rather than a trade deal

 

[oldman]

I rarely get into politics, but what’s the betting that no matter what the details of the trade deal are, the Labour Party will say it’s a bad deal?

On the contrary Labour will support the deal, not least because there are hardline Brexiteer Tories who will be unhappy with it. Starmer has already said he would vote for it to help Sunak overcome his internal opponents.

 

[Typhoon]

Is it not the latest iteration of the Brexit/NI issue rather than a trade deal

AKA the Boris Bodge. Those opposing this (and threatening resignation) need reminding that we wouldn't be in this mess if Johnson had got it right (or even reasonably right) first time around.

On the contrary Labour will support the deal, not least because there are hardline Brexiteer Tories who will be unhappy with it. Starmer has already said he would vote for it to help Sunak overcome his internal opponents.

Good for him, peace in Northern Ireland is worth more than inflicting a defeat on Sunak. I just hope the DUP realise that they can't have everything they want and that two sides are needed for power sharing to work.

 

[AlterEgo]

Good for him, peace in Northern Ireland is worth more than inflicting a defeat on Sunak. I just hope the DUP realise that they can't have everything they want and that two sides are needed for power sharing to work.

"Peace in Northern Ireland" usually translates as doing something which republicans are happy with and Unionists disagree with. It's also meaningless - what is "peace in Northern Ireland" anyway?

Was the attempted murder of a police officer, by allegedly, the New IRA, peace in Northern Ireland? Not related whatsoever to Brexit or the trade deal, but is that peace?

The UVF are agitating against the Protocol. If it's agreed, and they start reprisal attacks or threatening politicians, is that "peace in Northern Ireland"?

Northern Ireland is not a peaceful place by default.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I just hope the DUP realise that they can't have everything they want and that two sides are needed for power sharing to work.

The DUP are in a no-win situation. If they embrace the new Protocol, then they will bleed even more votes to TUV who have opposed everything from the beginning. On the other hand, if they continue to block the formation of a new Executive, then the Good Friday Agreement is all but dead, which opens up the door to the UK Government looking for alternative solutions, such as a system where the 3rd biggest party (currently Alliance) will be invited to take the deputy First Minister post so that a new Executive can be formed.

IMO, I think it's time to seriously consider abandoning the NI Assembly and replacing it with a chamber which is appointed by the councils in NI. Each council could send a certain amount of representatives, and the chamber would have a purely consultative nature, with executive powers devolved to the individual councils, who would be free to merge services with other councils if they wished.

I don't think NI is a viable state (nor was it ever a viable state), and the councils are big enough to function with executive as well as legislative powers. From what I can see, the individual councils are large enough to handle the job, especially if they could merge services with other councils.

But one thing is important to note: DUP-type politics have the support of around 30% of the population of NI. It's impossible to ignore them, no matter how childish and pathetic they might be. I fully expect the DUP to surrender here, because the Tories desperately need to get the NI Executive formed and devolution restored.

 

[Typhoon]

"Peace in Northern Ireland" usually translates as doing something which republicans are happy with and Unionists disagree with. It's also meaningless - what is "peace in Northern Ireland" anyway?

Was the attempted murder of a police officer, by allegedly, the New IRA, peace in Northern Ireland? Not related whatsoever to Brexit or the trade deal, but is that peace?

The UVF are agitating against the Protocol. If it's agreed, and they start reprisal attacks or threatening politicians, is that "peace in Northern Ireland"?

Northern Ireland is not a peaceful place by default.

I should have written 'peace in Northern Ireland' (in quotes) by that I mean don't rock the boat for the sake of a government defeat in the Commons. I suspect extremist groups will always be with us but it appears, at least, a damn sight better than I can remember, when the shooting of a police officer would not be a headline, because it happened regularly, when today's bus burning clip was indistinguishable from yesterday's. My concern is what it appears some on the right want, which is to get the DUP on board at all costs, even if it alienates Sinn Fein or the more moderate factions. The UVF will always want more. From my understanding (which may be faulty) goods from the UK bound for Northern Ireland will go straight through, only goods bound for the Republic will be subject to checking and paperwork, seems to be a reasonable concession by the EU (I would have thought it is the south which is losing out).

The DUP are in a no-win situation. If they embrace the new Protocol, then they will bleed even more votes to TUV who have opposed everything from the beginning. On the other hand, if they continue to block the formation of a new Executive, then the Good Friday Agreement is all but dead, which opens up the door to the UK Government looking for alternative solutions, such as a system where the 3rd biggest party (currently Alliance) will be invited to take the deputy First Minister post so that a new Executive can be formed.

IMO, I think it's time to seriously consider abandoning the NI Assembly and replacing it with a chamber which is appointed by the councils in NI. Each council could send a certain amount of representatives, and the chamber would have a purely consultative nature, with executive powers devolved to the individual councils, who would be free to merge services with other councils if they wished.

I don't think NI is a viable state (nor was it ever a viable state), and the councils are big enough to function with executive as well as legislative powers. From what I can see, the individual councils are large enough to handle the job, especially if they could merge services with other councils.

But one thing is important to note: DUP-type politics have the support of around 30% of the population of NI. It's impossible to ignore them, no matter how childish and pathetic they might be. I fully expect the DUP to surrender here, because the Tories desperately need to get the NI Executive formed and devolution restored.

An interesting idea. This is surely worth a wider consideration if it all falls apart,

 

[AlterEgo]

I should have written 'peace in Northern Ireland' (in quotes) by that I mean don't rock the boat for the sake of a government defeat in the Commons.

Ha yes, I think that is more accurate!

I suspect extremist groups will always be with us but it appears, at least, a damn sight better than I can remember, when the shooting of a police officer would not be a headline, because it happened regularly, when today's bus burning clip was indistinguishable from yesterday's.

This was not just because of the Belfast Agreement but also because much of the societal conditions necessary for the thriving of paramilitary groups has been washed away by a new social contract which is not - at least yet - under threat. The paramilitaries are thoroughly infiltrated and there is no prospect whatsoever of a wider violence campaign; Northern Ireland has been a securocracy for about 25 years.

My concern is what it appears some on the right want, which is to get the DUP on board at all costs, even if it alienates Sinn Fein or the more moderate factions.

Sinn Fein is a moderate faction for the purposes of this discussion. SF detest the paramilitaries, who consider them scum.

The UVF will always want more. From my understanding (which may be faulty) goods from the UK bound for Northern Ireland will go straight through, only goods bound for the Republic will be subject to checking and paperwork, seems to be a reasonable concession by the EU (I would have thought it is the south which is losing out).

I agree this is a reasonable concession. Any group threatening violence deserves to be ostracised but don't write off the loyalist paramilitaries' capacities for fomenting violence.

 

[DarloRich]

Northern Ireland is not a peaceful place by default.

But, surely, we can prevent a return to the days of open sectarian murder and bombings and (almost) civil war and (almost) martial law in response? Mind, we could do with some functioning democratic institutions !

 

[AlterEgo]

But, surely, we can prevent a return to the days of open sectarian murder and bombings and (almost) civil war and (almost) martial law? Mind, we could do with some functioning democratic institutions !

That's not going to happen. The political and social conditions don't exist for a return to a large scale conflict like the Troubles, and the security state has maintained its advantage it gained in the 1990s.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The paramilitaries are thoroughly infiltrated

Yes, absolutely. The conditions simply aren't there for any widespread return to violence, not least because the paramilitaries themselves are toothless these days. The Republican dissidents mostly contain themselves to violence in their own community, while the Loyalists have mostly taken up drug dealing.

From my understanding (which may be faulty) goods from the UK bound for Northern Ireland will go straight through, only goods bound for the Republic will be subject to checking and paperwork, seems to be a reasonable concession by the EU (I would have thought it is the south which is losing out).

It is not the final solution. This system means that smuggling will return in a major way to the border, because the strongly Republican communities there will turn a blind eye to it, and controlling the border is not going to be easy.

 

[Typhoon]

I agree this is a reasonable concession. Any group threatening violence deserves to be ostracised but don't write off the loyalist paramilitaries' capacities for fomenting violence.

Where Northern Ireland is concerned I would never write off the threats of violence from the paramilitaries from either faction, I rather gather that they were (are?) driven by monetary gain just as much as extremist views.
I was in Birmingham (inner suburb) the night of The Tavern in The Town and The Mulberry Bush, I know exactly what they can do; I also have some idea of the impact of an over reaction, such as what happened (and, I fear, might happen again). We need to move forward cautiously, but we do need to move forward.

It is not the final solution. This system means that smuggling will return in a major way to the border, because the strongly Republican communities there will turn a blind eye to it, and controlling the border is not going to be easy.

Very good point.

 

[AlterEgo]

Yes, absolutely. The conditions simply aren't there for any widespread return to violence, not least because the paramilitaries themselves are toothless these days. The Republican dissidents mostly contain themselves to violence in their own community, while the Loyalists have mostly taken up drug dealing.

Yes, to illustrate this: the New IRA shot a policeman, allegedly, the other day, and the suspects, who were known to the security services, immediately arrested. It is a tiny, tiny organisation with nothing like the social reach or popular appeal of the Provisionals. Back in the day you'd have people on the estate banging bin lids to warn of the police or army coming to give the suspects time to hide or move weapons.

 

[DarloRich]

That's not going to happen. The political and social conditions don't exist for a return to a large scale conflict like the Troubles, and the security state has maintained its advantage it gained in the 1990s.

I agree - but you also point out a rise in paramilitary activity which is a concern.

( I note that it is more criminality rather than terrorism based but those people are still there and still want to cause problems - lets not give them a chance)

 

[edwin_m]

Good for him, peace in Northern Ireland is worth more than inflicting a defeat on Sunak. I just hope the DUP realise that they can't have everything they want and that two sides are needed for power sharing to work.

By offering Labour support, Starmer puts Sunak in a bind if he needs Labour votes to win (assuming there is a Commons vote, apparently not strictly necessary). Sunak then either has to take up that offer and appear weak because he can't get enough of his own side to support him, or be seen to be putting party unity before the best interests of Northern Ireland and (because it will probably unlock a general improvement in EU relations) the UK as a whole.

 

[AlterEgo]

I agree - but you also point out a rise in paramilitary activity which is a concern.

There have been two police officer murders in NI, 12 years apart. It is a very rare occurrence. There hasn't been a rise - in fact, the security alert level was downgraded last year.

The attempted murder of a policeman last week shows three things:

1) United community front against such violence and a repudiation of any legitimacy the New IRA or any terror group stands for.
2) A waste of terror capacity by the New IRA. It is an act which inevitably got several people (that is, probably 10% of its entire active membership) arrested, which was probably solely motivated by revenge as opposed to a strategy (the Provisionals were not stupid and played the long game). It is an act conducted by an organisation on the wane, not the rise.
3) Very poor discipline and effectiveness on the part of whoever did it. They walked up to an unarmed police officer finishing a football coaching session with guns and did not even successfully kill him.

See also the Ismay murder - he died some time after the bomb went off under his van a few years ago. Those explosives were old and probably dated from the 1990s having been hidden in some cache for ages and created a lower intensity explosion as a result.

They can't afford good weapons, they can't source new explosives, they can't get community buy-in, they can't recruit members because they can't afford to pay or house them (yes, the Provisional IRA paid its volunteers or accommodated them via informal means as many of them could not maintain jobs because of their activities).

They have weak income streams - most of what does come is via smuggling, which incidentally will increase as a result of the Protocol and the customs regime it will enforce.

 

[DarloRich]

@AlterEgo - that is good to know. I will leave it there as OT for this thread but interesting stuff.

 

[AlterEgo]

Deal done according to BBC.

1. The UK and the EU have reached a new deal over post-Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, sources tell the BBC
2. A senior government source says: "An agreement has been reached. The deal is done”

(Sorry I cant link the live story from the app)

 

[GS250]

A deal is done. However lets wait for the details before commentating further.

Either way...I suspect plenty will not be happy!!!

 

[Cheshire Rover]

On the contrary Labour will support the deal, not least because there are hardline Brexiteer Tories who will be unhappy with it. Starmer has already said he would vote for it to help Sunak overcome his internal opponents.

Politicians really should take the time to read the details of agreements, protocols, green papers, white papers etc before committing to support what is in them. Details matter, especially when dealing with the EU who have been shown to be masters at crafting the finer details.....

 

[oldman]

Politicians really should take the time to read the details of agreements, protocols, green papers, white papers etc before committing to support what is in them. Details matter, especially when dealing with the EU who have been shown to be masters at crafting the finer details.....

In principle, yes, but in this case it is hard to see any basis for Labour to oppose anything acceptable to both the EU and the Tories.

 

[bangor-toad]

Well I am surprised.
What's been announced is, at the headline level, actually a decent outcome. It seems to address trade, has sorted out the medicine licensing problem and dealt with a number of other issues that were problematic.
I suspect there are some nasties in the detail but perhaps if the headline stuff is good, the smaller bits can be at least tolerated.

Of course that's just my personal view having read the BBC News. I wonder how this will play out with the local politicians...
Mr Toad

 

[Lost property]

Well I am surprised.
What's been announced is, at the headline level, actually a decent outcome. It seems to address trade, has sorted out the medicine licensing problem and dealt with a number of other issues that were problematic.
I suspect there are some nasties in the detail but perhaps if the headline stuff is good, the smaller bits can be at least tolerated.

Of course that's just my personal view having read the BBC News. I wonder how this will play out with the local politicians...
Mr Toad

Well, having spent some time in N.I., as a civilian (and I had a very enjoyable time working there) I think it's fair to say you won't see the DUP and progressive in the same sentence.

That. and whilst Sunak may have at least in part resolved the issue, there are still large tranches of leaving the EU that will continue to affect the UK.

However, he's now exposed himself to the full attention and vindictiveness of the ERG, who won't take kindly to this development, along with Boris, who will probably be seething....and Boris, as has long been known and established, not only doesn't like Sunak, but also can be very scheming and malicious when the ego is shattered. After all, he "got Brexit done ! " did he not and that legacy is one he's going to perpetuate come hell or high water.

 

[bspahh]

There are 16 documents published here from the UK government

The Windsor Framework

The agreement reached by the UK and EU regarding the Windsor Framework.

www.gov.uk

This from the EU has links to 5 documents

A new way forward on the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: political agreement in principle on the Windsor Framework

This constitutes a comprehensive set of joint solutions aimed at addressing, in a definitive way, the practical challenges faced by citizens and businesses in Northern Ireland, thereby providing them with lasting certainty and predictability.

ec.europa.eu

 

[birchesgreen]

After many months/years it appears there will at last be a UK/EU Brexit Trade Deal. This has to be positive news.

I rarely get into politics, but what’s the betting that no matter what the details of the trade deal are, the Labour Party will say it’s a bad deal? Just for once why can’t politicians work towards the good of the people and not the good of their party or self interest.

Is this a parody post? Its the Tories who will oppose it, Sunak will probably need Labour votes to get it through.

 

[bspahh]

The Emergency Brake is not a "veto", by the Northern Ireland Assembly. It is defined on page 23 of this document

Unilateral Declaration by the United Kingdom
Involvement of the institutions of the 1998 Agreement
1. The United Kingdom will adopt the following procedure to operate the emergency brake mechanism in Article 13(3a) of the Windsor Framework (See Joint Declaration No xx/2023). This mechanism will apply in the unique circumstances of this Declaration and is without prejudice to the status of cross-community voting and safeguards in the 1998 Agreement, which apply solely and exclusively to devolved matters.

a. The mechanism will operate solely and exclusively in the event that after the date of this declaration, the Northern Ireland Executive has been restored and become operational, including with a First Minister and deputy First Minister in post, and the Northern Ireland Assembly has been in regular session. Thereafter, Members of the Legislative Assembly (‘MLAs’) wishing to operate the mechanism must be individually and collectively seeking in good faith to fully operate the institutions, including through the nomination of Ministers and support for the normal operation of the Assembly.​

​

b. The minimum threshold for the mechanism will operate on the same basis as the separate ‘Petition of Concern’ process within the 1998 Agreement, as updated through the New Decade, New Approach Agreement in 2020. This means 30 MLAs from at least two parties (and excluding the Speaker and Deputy Speakers) will need to notify the UK Government of their wish that the emergency brake mechanism should be applied.​

​

c. When providing notification to the UK Government, MLAs will need to demonstrate, in a detailed and publicly available written explanation:​

i. that they have met the same requirements as those set out in Annex B of Part 2 of the New Decade, New Approach Agreement, namely that the notification is only being made in the most exceptional circumstances and as a last resort, having used every other available mechanism;​

ii. that the conditions set out in the third subparagraph of Article 13(3a) of the Windsor Framework are met; and​

iii. that MLAs have sought prior substantive discussion with the UK Government and within the Northern Ireland Executive to examine all possibilities in relation to the Union act; taken steps to consult businesses, other traders and civic society affected by the relevant Union act; and made all reasonable use of applicable consultation processes provided by the European Union for new Union acts relevant to Northern Ireland.​

2. If it accepts that the conditions in paragraph 1(a) and (b) have been met and that the explanation provided under paragraph 1(c) is satisfactory, the United Kingdom will notify the Union in accordance with the first subparagraph of Article 13(3a) of the Windsor Framework.

3. The United Kingdom, following a notification by MLAs, commits to informing the Union without delay.

4. The United Kingdom, following a notification to the Union that the emergency brake has been triggered, commits to intensive consultations in the Joint Committee on the relevant Union act as provided for by Article 13(4) of the Windsor Framework

 

[THC]

It remains to be seen whether Jeffrey Donaldson can sell this to his party and in so doing give tacit recognition that the days of unionist supremacy in NI are over. That means the DUP respecting the outcome of the last Assembly elections and agreeing to sit at Stormont under a Sinn Féin First Minister, something that they have to date found any and every excuse to avoid. This whole issue with accepting the Protocol, despite the incredible economic advantages it confers on NI in relation to the rest of the UK, has largely been manufactured as a consequence of that. Political unionism has backed itself into a corner with pushing for a hard Brexit and refusal to accept the Protocol as its price. Any further refusal on its part to engage with the power-sharing structures of devolved government will in the short term bring about direct rule from London and in the longer term only hasten a border poll. The clock is ticking.

THC

 

[brad465]

Is this a parody post? Its the Tories who will oppose it, Sunak will probably need Labour votes to get it through.

That's if it definitely goes to a vote.

Meanwhile the DUP don't seem happy (quelle surprise):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-64779415

Stormont brake 'in the boot and impossible to reach'​

The DUP has said it will not be rushed when it comes to making a decision on the new deal.
But that hasn't stopped some from airing their views.
Ian Paisley Jr, a DUP MP and son of party founder Ian Paisley Sr, says the deal does "not cut the mustard" for the restoration of devolved government and calls on Rishi Sunak to go back into talks with the EU.
He says the "brake" is "in the boot of the car under the spare wheel and is impossible to reach".

 

[dangie]

Is this a parody post? Its the Tories who will oppose it, Sunak will probably need Labour votes to get it through.

No it wasn’t a parody post. As I said I rarely comment on politics. My meaning was that whatever is proposed or agreed someone will oppose it.

 

[bspahh]

Jonathan Jones (the former Treasury Solicitor and Permanent Secretary of the Government Legal Department) has commented
https://twitter.com/SirJJKC/status/1630284145640218627

1. it’s v complicated
2. Serious, v significant piece of work. Major achievement on both sides. And big change in tone for UK/EU relations
3. Will involve legal change to the protocol itself (and a range of other instruments). Not just tinkering …
4. The terrible NI Protocol Bill is dropped, as is the EU legal action against it
5. Stormont Brake is a big change, effectively a veto on significant new EU rules (though subject to conditions)
6. Role of ECJ substantially reduced. But not, ultimately, completely eliminated…

Will this be enough for DUP/ERG?