Predict gains/losses in your local area in next GE

[Snow1964]

Somerset is interesting as the 4 district/unitary councils became a single county again and whole county voted May 2022

Results Lib Dem 61, Conservative 36, Green 5, Labour 5, Independent 3

The new boundaries have Bath (already Lib Dem) too big so there is part of Bath and North Somerset in another constituency too. A by-election just across the border in Devon went Lib Dem too

So looking like any blue wall might go orange in this part of the world. Mind you it is rather abandoned by current Government, virtually no road improvements, no levelling up funds, 30+ year old diesel trains, aging hospitals etc.

 

[JonathanH]

Reigate won't flip, I am fairly certain.

The Electoral Calculus website has Reigate as only the 128th safest seat for the Conservative Party and the Conservatives holding on to less than 100 seats.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Reigate

There may be something in that, it isn't just central Reigate. A lot of the fortune in the Surrey strip below London depends on how the Liberal Democrats and Labour split turns out, whether people call the right second party in their voting, and just how much appetite there is to vote against the Conservatives.

It will be interesting to see whether anyone 'important' is sent to replace Crispin Blunt in search of a safe seat.

 

[nw1]

Those are interesting projections given I also know the areas very well.

Hazel Grove ..Lib Dem...Cheadle...Con (Sunak helpfully bunged the constituency a helpful bribe, what with it being as I'm sure you know, one of the most socially and economically deprived areas in the UK )

Not sure whether this is an ironic comment or not (!) - I presume it is; I don't know Cheadle that well (I passed through on a few occasions on the 370 bus in the 90s) but it seemed fairly affluent.

The majority is pretty small, and down on 2017 (which itself was down on 2015); would the Tories really hold on there? (Not sure what Sunak's "incentive" to vote Tory is...)

 

[WizCastro197]

The Electoral Calculus website has Reigate as only the 128th safest seat for the Conservative Party and the Conservatives holding on to less than 100 seats.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Reigate

There may be something in that, it isn't just central Reigate. A lot of the fortune in the Surrey strip below London depends on how the Liberal Democrats and Labour split turns out, whether people call the right second party in their voting, and just how much appetite there is to vote against the Conservatives.

It will be interesting to see whether anyone 'important' is sent to replace Crispin Blunt in search of a safe seat.

Exactly, Redhill is fairly Green and Lib Dem, which must be where most of their vote share comes from. But Reigate and Banstead are both fairly conservative.

 

[nw1]

It will be interesting to see whether anyone 'important' is sent to replace Crispin Blunt in search of a safe seat.

D. Raab? A.B. de Pfeffel Johnson?

 

[JonathanH]

D. Raab? A.B. de Pfeffel Johnson?

Not safe enough for Johnson at this election. Raab is a possibility I guess. Depends on how expendable either is considered by Central Office.

In a scenario where the Conservatives only get 50-100 seats, Sunak isn't that safe in his North Yorkshire seat. They got 165 seats in 1997.

 

[Benters]

Those are interesting projections given I also know the areas very well.

Hazel Grove ..Lib Dem...Cheadle...Con (Sunak helpfully bunged the constituency a helpful bribe, what with it being as I'm sure you know, one of the most socially and economically deprived areas in the UK )

Altrincham and Sale...as another contributor has already mentioned, no longer the rock solid, as it has been for years, Tory seat..but I'd be more inclined to go for Lib Dem than Labour along with the departure of Brady.

Tatton...Lib Dem...Macc / Congleton ...Con.

Crewe and Nantwich....Labour...

Interestingly enough, just a little bit further South, the current Tory MP for Stafford has been deselected. Seemingly on the basis she took six months maternity leave. As Boris happily takes lucrative speaking leave, hopefully his constituents will take note...assuming he survives the forthcoming enquiry in the first place.

Theo Clarke (Jacob Real-Smug's niece) is my MP. She's only been seen once in Stafford since being elected in 2019, and that was to open the Western Access Road in 2021. That project was on the cards before she was even a twinkle in Conservative Central Office's eye.
Stafford could easily swing to Labour again if current predictions are anything to go by. It did in the Blair landslide of 1997, when David Kidney gained the seat . He held it in the two subsequent General Elections until the Tories got back in again in 2010.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Looking at the 4 constituencies that make up the area of Kirklees Council:

My constituency is Batley & Spen, which despite having to go through two by-elections in recent years for very different reasons (one tragic and as a result mostly uncontested, the other less so) has remained Labour throughout- though with a much reduced majority at the last go round. Predicting the next one is pretty tricky and a Tory gain will rely on the vote in the more affluent districts coming out in numbers. My gut feeling is a Labour win with a moderately increased majority.

Neighbouring Dewsbury is a Lab/Con marginal these days, after being fairly solidly Labour since the 1930s other than a single cycle in the Thatcher era. (Note: some of this period the area was in the Huddersfield East constituency). This is largely due to boundary changes which attached the rural and affluent areas around the south of Huddersfield (Denby Dale and Skelmanthorpe) into the constituency. Having looked up the history of the seat, those areas being included largely coincide with the seat being Conservative. Again this one is tough to predict, but I'd cautiously expect a narrow Labour win depending on the quality of the candidate.

Huddersfield would probably elect a mannequin if it had a red rosette on*, and has been held by Barry Sheerman for my entire life (I was born in 1982, he was elected to this seat in 83 but had previously held the old Huddersfield East constituency since 1979). He's getting on a bit now and has announced he won't stand at the next election, so will miss the chance to become "Father of The House" (title given to the longest-serving MP). Depending on the candidate (and the Tory candidate) I feel reasonably confident predicting a Labour hold.

Colne Valley is another marginal, and has flip-flopped more than a poorly installed cat flap in a force-12 gale. However the current incumbent (Jason McCartney, CON) is generally liked and has been far more visible locally than any of the MPs from the other three constituencies, so might well be one of the few "Blue Wall" MPs to retain his seat.

*= Other than a spell in the mid to late 20th century when the constituency was split in two, the last time Huddersfield had a Tory MP Queen Victoria was on the throne and women didn't have the vote. Even then, it was only for three years following a by-election.

 

[Lost property]

Not sure whether this is an ironic comment or not (!) - I presume it is; I don't know Cheadle that well (I passed through on a few occasions on the 370 bus in the 90s) but it seemed fairly affluent.

The majority is pretty small, and down on 2017 (which itself was down on 2015); would the Tories really hold on there? (Not sure what Sunak's "incentive" to vote Tory is...)

It is ironic...there's nothing impoverished about Cheadle

 

[nw1]

It is ironic...there's nothing impoverished about Cheadle

I thought so, but needed to check as I am not that au fait with the place.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Feb 2023 ==

Theo Clarke (Jacob Real-Smug's niece) is my MP. She's only been seen once in Stafford since being elected in 2019, and that was to open the Western Access Road in 2021. That project was on the cards before she was even a twinkle in Conservative Central Office's eye.
Stafford could easily swing to Labour again if current predictions are anything to go by. It did in the Blair landslide of 1997, when David Kidney gained the seat . He held it in the two subsequent General Elections until the Tories got back in again in 2010.

Isn't it right that Bill Cash used to be the MP for Stafford, then in 1997 the town and the rural areas were split, with Cash taking the latter and the town going to Labour? This would presumably also enhance Labour's chances there next time.

 

[Typhoon]

I thought so, but needed to check as I am not that au fait with the place.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Feb 2023 ==



Isn't it right that Bill Cash used to be the MP for Stafford, then in 1997 the town and the rural areas were split, with Cash taking the latter and the town going to Labour? This would presumably also enhance Labour's chances there next time.

Under the new constituency boundaries, it has lost several wards in South Staffs (around Penkridge) and picked up some north west of Stafford in Cash country. Maybe he wants to jump ship, they look pretty safe Tory territory (although I don't know them.)

 

[JonathanH]

Maybe he wants to jump ship, they look pretty safe Tory territory (although I don't know them.)

Safe in normal circumstances might not mean safe in what is coming.

However, as noted upthread, there isn't a 1997 feel good sense about a change of government yet. It is more a sense of it will have to do.

 

[D6130]

But yes, Stroud has been surprisingly frequently Labour; as a provincial small town, it doesn't strike me as obvious Labour territory, so I'm slightly intrigued why. There must be something different about Stroud.

If you have ever been to Stroud, you will notice what is different about it within minutes of stepping off the train. It vies with Totnes for the title 'The Hebden Bridge of the South-West'....lots of progressive, left-leaning academics, retired hippies, health food shops, vegetarian restaurants, natural therapists, etc. Like Hebden Bridge, it should by rights be rich pickings for the Greens....but, given our present totally-undemocratic electoral system - and the English Green Party's strong pro-Brexit stance - most of the said progressive, left-leaning academics tend to vote Labour and try to give the solidly-Tory farmers and wealthy barn conversion-dwellers in the surrounding rural areas a run for their money.

 

[Typhoon]

Safe in normal circumstances might not mean safe in what is coming.

However, as noted upthread, there isn't a 1997 feel good sense about a change of government yet. It is more a sense of it will have to do.

I should, perhaps, have used safer!

However, there is still time yet. I can think of scenarios where the country is plunged into a crisis and we are encouraged to rally around the flag, stick with the tried and tested, turn to the very person who saw us through the last crisis and voters, reluctantly voting (deep) blue. It is very unlikely but possible. It won't happen under Sunak and Truss is deluded if she thinks she should be playing any part in front line politics, but all the time 'Blond Ambition' is lurking in the background, I will have concerns (I open up my computer to see he is making news again). The Conservatives are clutching at straws and I can see them ditching the person who is trying to apply Conservative policies to rectify the mistakes of his predecessors, and reinstating the man who has no moral compass and places all others out of the medal positions, behind himself, himself and himself. People may mutter and moan, but I don't trust them to do the right thing once in the polling booth. I totally agree with your last sentiment, and that opinion is too easily changed.

So glass a lot more than half empty, I'm afraid!

 

[nw1]

If you have ever been to Stroud, you will notice what is different about it within minutes of stepping off the train. It vies with Totnes for the title 'The Hebden Bridge of the South-West'....lots of progressive, left-leaning academics, retired hippies, health food shops, vegetarian restaurants, natural therapists, etc. Like Hebden Bridge, it should by rights be rich pickings for the Greens....but, given our present totally-undemocratic electoral system - and the English Green Party's strong pro-Brexit stance - most of the said progressive, left-leaning academics tend to vote Labour and try to give the solidly-Tory farmers and wealthy barn conversion-dwellers in the surrounding rural areas a run for their money.

Ah ok, thanks for the clarification. No, I've never been (well more accurately, I went round the edge in 1994 but not into the centre, and maybe it didn't have that character at that time).

The Green Party is not pro-Brexit, surely?

See for example: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/...ng-closer-relationship-with-eu-on-europe-day/

Talking of Totnes, that's another strange one. I've heard of it being more progressive yet it has been solidly Tory, though one gets the impression former MP Sarah Wollaston was not, by any means, a hard Tory - and eventually flipped to the Lib Dems. But she couldn't hold the seat and they presumably got a Borisbot instead.

 

[DelayRepay]

However, there is still time yet. I can think of scenarios where the country is plunged into a crisis and we are encouraged to rally around the flag, stick with the tried and tested, turn to the very person who saw us through the last crisis and voters, reluctantly voting (deep) blue. It is very unlikely but possible. It won't happen under Sunak and Truss is deluded if she thinks she should be playing any part in front line politics, but all the time 'Blond Ambition' is lurking in the background, I will have concerns (I open up my computer to see he is making news again). The Conservatives are clutching at straws and I can see them ditching the person who is trying to apply Conservative policies to rectify the mistakes of his predecessors, and reinstating the man who has no moral compass and places all others out of the medal positions, behind himself, himself and himself. People may mutter and moan, but I don't trust them to do the right thing once in the polling booth. I totally agree with your last sentiment, and that opinion is too easily changed.

So glass a lot more than half empty, I'm afraid!

I agree - the blonde one, for all his faults, is still personally very popular with a large part of the electorate, both traditional tory voters and those who switched from labour in 2019. In a sense this is something he has in common with Blair - whatever you may think of their policies, they both knew how to fight an election.

I think we need to be careful listening too much to opinion polls. They may show a large lead for Labour, but I believe there will be a lot of people who won't want to admit they're planning to vote tory, but when they're in the privacy of the voting booth, that's where they'll mark their x.

The Green Party is not pro-Brexit, surely?

See for example: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/...ng-closer-relationship-with-eu-on-europe-day/

I was confused by that comment too - the Green Party were pro-remain, and although they 'respect the referendum result' are pushing for closer relationships with the EU. I suspect if there is ever a referendum on re-joining the EU (or common market etc) they would be firmly on the 'yes' side.

 

[nw1]

I should, perhaps, have used safer!

However, there is still time yet. I can think of scenarios where the country is plunged into a crisis and we are encouraged to rally around the flag, stick with the tried and tested, turn to the very person who saw us through the last crisis and voters, reluctantly voting (deep) blue. It is very unlikely but possible.

Mind you, the sort of crises that are likely to occur in the next 12 months will be financial ones, and I don't think people would turn to the Tories in such a situation. Particularly Johnson; his foaming at the mouth fans might vote him in, but I can't see he would appeal to the centre.

I'd say Sunak would be more likely to win a GE than Johnson, but don't really want either of them to be honest!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

I agree - the blonde one, for all his faults, is still personally very popular with a large part of the electorate, both traditional tory voters and those who switched from labour in 2019. In a sense this is something he has in common with Blair - whatever you may think of their policies, they both knew how to fight an election.

I think we need to be careful listening too much to opinion polls. They may show a large lead for Labour, but I believe there will be a lot of people who won't want to admit they're planning to vote tory, but when they're in the privacy of the voting booth, that's where they'll mark their x.

Even still, I suspect there will be a Labour victory of some kind. It might be smaller than what the polls are currently showing, but can't really see the Tories winning.

If they win next year, against all the odds, it does paint a very worrying picture indeed of UK politics, and the close relationship between the Tory Party and the majority of the printed media. One wonders whether they will ever get out of power in such circumstances, and I can see mass demonstrations and unrest, with a very strong push to change the voting system, if they win next year.

 

[DelayRepay]

Mind you, the sort of crises that are likely to occur in the next 12 months will be financial ones, and I don't think people would turn to the Tories in such a situation. Particularly Johnson; his foaming at the mouth fans might vote him in, but I can't see he would appeal to the centre.

I wouldn't rule out some kind of security crisis involving Russia. And although we've come through this winter unscathed, next winter still brings the possibility of an energy shortage. Throw in issues with food supplies (although I wouldn't class the current issues as a crisis) and avian flu and there's rather a lot that could cause a crisis between now and the next election.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

Even still, I suspect there will be a Labour victory of some kind. It might be smaller than what the polls are currently showing, but can't really see the Tories winning.

I don't think the tories will win. I think a Labour/Lib Dem coalition of some sort is a real possibility. I think a Labour/Lib Dem coalition needing to rely on the SNP for support is also a possibility.

 

[Typhoon]

I wouldn't rule out some kind of security crisis involving Russia. And although we've come through this winter unscathed, next winter still brings the possibility of an energy shortage. Throw in issues with food supplies (although I wouldn't class the current issues as a crisis) and avian flu and there's rather a lot that could cause a crisis between now and the next election.

That is one area I was considering. I read somewhere that pro-Russia groups are trying to destabilise Moldova. Moldova has a significant border with Ukraine but also with Nato (Romania). Putin could well send in troops to 'keep the peace' rather like he tried in Ukraine. He has millions of expendable young men (and, if necessary, not so young, or possibly women). All the while he is in power, I think we will have a problem; even if he is deposed, the problem may not go away). China still lurks and, closer to home, the Northern Ireland problem is still with us, particularly as Johnson keeps pushing his 'take back control and 'stuff'* the EU (and, indirectly, Sinn Fein) line.

I think we need to be careful listening too much to opinion polls. They may show a large lead for Labour, but I believe there will be a lot of people who won't want to admit they're planning to vote tory, but when they're in the privacy of the voting booth, that's where they'll mark their x.

1997 election - in the week leading up to the election, the average Labour lead in the polls was over 18%, only one poll had the lead as below the election result (12.5%), several leads were over 20%. And that is the week before the election, we are probably well over a year away. Then, Labour had a popular leader (as correctly described in #46) and the Conservatives a dull one. It is quite possible that at the next election, it will be the other way about. Of course, many won't admit to supporting a Johnson-led Conservative party (lies, Covid deaths - especially care homes, lies, Partygate, lies, sleaze and lies) but there would doubtless be a party political about how he got Brexit done, got the vaccine done, instigated the policy of support for energy bills, and I bet there will be voters who would be willing to give him another chance.

* - apparently he prefers a slightly shorter word!

 

[nw1]

1997 election - in the week leading up to the election, the average Labour lead in the polls was over 18%, only one poll had the lead as below the election result (12.5%), several leads were over 20%. And that is the week before the election, we are probably well over a year away. Then, Labour had a popular leader (as correctly described in #46) and the Conservatives a dull one. It is quite possible that at the next election, it will be the other way about. Of course, many won't admit to supporting a Johnson-led Conservative party (lies, Covid deaths - especially care homes, lies, Partygate, lies, sleaze and lies) but there would doubtless be a party political about how he got Brexit done, got the vaccine done, instigated the policy of support for energy bills, and I bet there will be voters who would be willing to give him another chance.

* - apparently he prefers a slightly shorter word!

Another factor, though, about Boris coming back and winning would be that it would further increase the ideological divide in this country.

Such a scenario would cause massive anger and unrest on a scale unseen in modern times, I suspect, not only amongst left-wingers and anti-Brexiters, but also from centrists.

Consequently I can't see middle-of-the-road voters actually lending their vote to Boris, simply because of the desire for stability. Starmer's perceived "dullness" (or, to put it more positively, middle-of-the-roadness) is a massive asset and just what the country needs. I think most of us have had enough of the nonsense that has dominated the past few years and would quite welcome a "dull" PM !

 

[Typhoon]

Another factor, though, about Boris coming back and winning would be that it would further increase the ideological divide in this country.

Such a scenario would cause massive anger and unrest on a scale unseen in modern times, I suspect, not only amongst left-wingers and anti-Brexiters, but also from centrists.

Consequently I can't see middle-of-the-road voters actually lending their vote to Boris, simply because of the desire for stability. Starmer's perceived "dullness" (or, to put it more positively, middle-of-the-roadness) is a massive asset and just what the country needs. I think most of us have had enough of the nonsense that has dominated the past few years and would quite welcome a "dull" PM !

I ardently hope that we won't get fooled again but am concerned that there will be enough who are willing to give him another chance, and he will have the support of at least four newspapers as well as a number of other news outlets if, for no other reason than they knew they will have a front page picture on a slow news day. Grey does not sell - and Spitting Image exhausted most original ideas on grey people (I hope just Starmer doesn't like peas).

 

[Gloster]

‘A week is a long time in politics’ (*) and we have (probably) a lot of weeks until the next election. All sorts of things could happen: there could be another and even more serious resources crisis, we could be at war with Russia or China, we could be suffering unprecedented internal social unrest, the level of corruption (to use a single word for a mixture of elements) at the top in this country could become obvious, etc. We just don’t know, so it is a bit difficult to say what will happen in any given constituency. For that matter, how do we know that some event might allow a Prolongation of Parliament Act to be introduced by a desperate or unscrupulous (or both) government. (I know that that is unlikely, but it is possible.)

My personal opinion, based on the current situation and likely future developments, is that the Conservatives will make a partial recovery and not do anything like as badly as sometimes predicted. The return of Johnson would be interesting (among other descriptions): there would be an initial bounce, followed by a decline as he returns to his old ways and many people realise why they were so glad to see him go. Labour would have a working majority, but how comfortable this would be would depend on Scotland and how the new SNP leader pans out. If Labour only have a small majority, then it could have problems if Starmer hasn’t dealt with the last of the Corbyn fan club. As far as the LibDems are concerned, they might make up some ground, but will still be the fourth party, unless the SNP leader makes a really spectacular hash of things.

What worries me on a more general level is that the Conservatives will use the time they have left to push through a number of changes that will be well liked by the party’s donors and cronies (a simple description), but will soon, without most people realising, have a drastic effect on peoples’ lives. Getting rid of all those nasty Brussels imposed rules, which will quietly include dumping large numbers of rules affecting employment, consumer protection and rights; leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, which protects some very basic rights; or adjusting the tax rules to favour the super-rich. Most people won’t understand the detail and it will all be brushed aside as a chance to weigh potatoes in pounds or send back anyone we don’t like. I fear that some of all this is likely and all of it is possible.

* - Attributed to Harold Wilson, but it has not proved possible to discover when he said it.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Oxfordshire:

• Oxford West & Abingdon - LibDem hold
• Oxford East - Labour hold
• Henley - Con hold: rumoured that Boris Johnson may be returning here
• Wantage - possible LibDem gain from Con
• Witney - probable Con hold: I fear the opposition vote will split between Lab and LibDem, letting the incumbent Con through
• Banbury - Con hold: very narrow chance of a Lab gain if there's a landslide
• Bicester & Woodstock - new constituency, Con/LD marginal

 

[Halwynd]

Major's government arrived at a point when, no matter what they did, they were always going to lose - and, arguably, that government contained a few better quality politicians than today's. This government has hit that point too, but Starmer doesn't appear to be another Blair; perhaps a competent 'administrator', but not a leader. My impression is that he generally waits to see which way the wind is blowing.... and then follows it. For all his faults, Blair was far more of a conviction politician and put his points over with some charisma. So my guess is that there will be no landslide, but that Labour will achieve a sizeable majority.

Anyway, I won't be wasting my vote and so shall place a cross against 'None of the Above', such is my despair at today's largely useless and self-serving politicians.

 

[Herefordian]

Hereford and South Herefordshire - Liberal Democrats gain.
North Herefordshire - Conservative hold.

I'm going to strategically vote for the Liberal Democrats next time. Jesse Norman's majority isn't too comfortable these days.

 

[507020]

I have glimpsed vast tracts of flat country west of the M6 and the WCML

West of the WCML, the Wyre & Preston North constituency is to be abolished and split into 5 constituencies with part taken by Ribble Valley, consequently South Ribble takes parts of Ribble Valley and Chorley to the east with the part of South Ribble west of the River Douglas, including the villages of Banks, Hesketh Bank, Tarleton and Rufford taken by neighbouring Southport and Ainsdale, the southernmost part of Southport ceded to Sefton Central.

Since the constituency was first created in 1885, Southport has never returned a Labour MP, evidence that its local identity is completely contradictory to that of all the safe Labour seats on Merseyside. It was a safe Lib Dem seat from 1997 - 2017 until the resignation of the incumbent MP since 2001 and resident of Southport resident since 1974, John Pugh.

The present South Ribble constituency however is the more typical marginal seat that votes for the winner, being Labour from 1997 - 2010, but with Southport losing its most Labour voting wards closest to Liverpool and its best ever result for Labour in 2019 (although that was the fault of Jo Swinson and her undemocratic “Lib Dems to stop Brexit” rubbish) it will it will only be able to dispense with the Conservatives if it can make up its mind whether to vote tactically for the Lib Dems, or elect its first ever Labour MP, however I suspect too few people in this town are capable of organising such a thing.

Sir Lindsay is valuable in promoting the Chorley accent throughout the world. I live in Leyland and because of Sir Lindsay I can now communicate with the people of Chorley.

That’s what you get east of the WCML! The last time I went there, there were more people there from Bolton.

The Electoral Calculus website has Reigate as only the 128th safest seat for the Conservative Party and the Conservatives holding on to less than 100 seats.

There may be something in that, it isn't just central Reigate. A lot of the fortune in the Surrey strip below London depends on how the Liberal Democrats and Labour split turns out, whether people call the right second party in their voting, and just how much appetite there is to vote against the Conservatives.

It will be interesting to see whether anyone 'important' is sent to replace Crispin Blunt in search of a safe seat.

But note the quite disgusting comments made by Crispin Blunt in support of the disgraced former Conservative MP for Wakefield, a convicted paedophile. How those went down locally will likely affect his chances, unless of course he is deselected in favour of someone more important, A. B. de Pfeffel Johnson for example, since, in the words of one of the constituents he is supposed to be representing “that filthy piece of toerag” is guaranteed never to win again in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

 

[Thirteen]

I suspect after 14 years of Tory rule, people will looking for a change in Government. We've seen this happen in other countries and here in the last few decades.

 

[JonathanH]

But note the quite disgusting comments made by Crispin Blunt in support of the disgraced former Conservative MP for Wakefield, a convicted paedophile. How those went down locally will likely affect his chances, unless of course he is deselected in favour of someone more important, A. B. de Pfeffel Johnson for example, since, in the words of one of the constituents he is supposed to be representing “that filthy piece of toerag” is guaranteed never to win again in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Blunt has already announced he is standing down, hence the chat about someone being on the chicken run to his seat. I'm not convinced he had a lot of personal support in the Reigate area, but had held it since 1997.

 

[Bevan Price]

St. Helens (2 constituencies). Been Labour for years and unlikely to change. (Just a few minor boundary changes in the area. )

Nearby Liverpool also likely to remain mostly Labour . Any future swings away from Labour more likely to favour Lib Dems rather than Tories -- Lib Dems did have a brief surge in support about 30-40 years ago.

 

[rapmastaj]

Leeds will have lots of boundary changes to add something new into the mix.

Leeds North West will be split in half, with the inner-city part going into the new Headingley constituency which will be an ultra-safe Labour seat. The outer part (Otley, Yeadon, Wharfedale) will join with Horsforth and Guiseley (from the existing Pudsey seat) to form a new seat, confusingly also named Leeds North West. This could well be a future 3-way marginal and one to watch.

The existing Leeds West seat will also be split up in the boundary changes. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is the current MP. Will she be satisfied with standing for election in the new Pudsey constituency (Bramley, Armley, Pudsey and Farsley wards), which would appear to be the closest geographical fit to her existing seat? Although this seems fairly safe for Labour as a whole, Pudsey ward has been trending rapidly towards the Tories in recent local elections. Or will she claim the ultra-safe new Headingley seat? In that case, Alex Sobel (current Labour Leeds North West MP) will be forced to stand in the new Leeds North West, although culturally he would fit with the Headingley student population far better than Rachel Reeves would.

Meanwhile Leeds East, home to Corbynite Richard Burgon, will be gaining more Tory-leaning commuter territory in Garforth, making it a much more marginal seat. But it seems it won't lose Harehills, home to Leeds' strongest Asian population and reliably Labour, after all, so Burgon will probably be safe.