What effect might the decline in bus services have on the railways?

[Western 52]

BBC news are running a story today highlighting the decline in bus usage and route reductions. I can see a number of possible effects on the railway. Fewer feeder buses may cause some decline in rail use, but rail may gain where trains are an alternative to buses. Also, if bus operators reduce their fleets, maybe a shortage of vehicles for rail replacement to cover engineering works, etc.

Leicestershire bus services cut as passenger numbers fall

One Leicestershire service currently needs £233,000 a year in subsidies to keep it running.

www.bbc.co.uk

Bus services in Leicestershire have been cut by 50%, according to data from the Department for Transport.

Demand for buses, which had been gradually declining for several years, fell during the pandemic and remains about 20% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest figures.

But buses still account for nearly half of public transport journeys.

 

[zwk500]

I think personally the effect is largely going to be negligible as the bus services that are being withdrawn are the ones with few people on.

 

[Mollman]

I think it has been the other way round. Improvements to existing and provision of new rail / light rail services have had a small contribution to reduction in bus services. For example Nottingham's 48 was at least double its current frequency before the tram came to Clifton.

 

[Ken H]

I think it has been the other way round. Improvements to existing and provision of new rail / light rail services have had a small contribution to reduction in bus services. For example Nottingham's 48 was at least double its current frequency before the tram came to Clifton.

buses from Bradford to Otley, Guiseley and Ilkley were made uneconomic by the massive improvement of the rail service No buses Bradford - Ilkley now.

But the bus routes in trouble are the very local ones. I cant see the railway being much help to people who lose their bus.

 

[Magdalia]

BBC news are running a story today highlighting the decline in bus usage and route reductions.

The website story is a summary of a feature on today's "You and Yours" on Radio 4.

 

[furnessvale]

An alternative viewpoint could be that the less people have access to a comprehensive public transport network, the more likely they are to invest in private transport, eg car or motorcycle, and use that for ALL future jouneys.

 

[leytongabriel]

An alternative viewpoint could be that the less people have access to a comprehensive public transport network, the more likely they are to invest in private transport, eg car or motorcycle, and use that for ALL future jouneys.

Yes. Wasn't that the post-Beeching experience?

 

[PTR 444]

An alternative viewpoint could be that the less people have access to a comprehensive public transport network, the more likely they are to invest in private transport, eg car or motorcycle, and use that for ALL future jouneys.

On the contrary, increased private transport ownership could also increase rail usage as more people drive to a suitable railhead for onward travel.

 

[zwk500]

An alternative viewpoint could be that the less people have access to a comprehensive public transport network, the more likely they are to invest in private transport, eg car or motorcycle, and use that for ALL future jouneys.

A further alternative viewpoint is that people want to make journeys for which public transport was never a viable alternative and the car allows them to do this.

 

[WAB]

An alternative viewpoint could be that the less people have access to a comprehensive public transport network, the more likely they are to invest in private transport, eg car or motorcycle, and use that for ALL future jouneys.

Yes, the same applies to other bus routes. Once public transport networks reduce, it tends to result in a feedback loop, hastening the decline of the network. That's one of the reasons for London's continued bus success - you can get to most places by bus pretty easily, and in the evenings and on Sundays to boot.

 

[RT4038]

Yes, the same applies to other bus routes. Once public transport networks reduce, it tends to result in a feedback loop, hastening the decline of the network. That's one of the reasons for London's continued bus success - you can get to most places by bus pretty easily, and in the evenings and on Sundays to boot.

Much of the provinces have gone way past this point already.

 

[Western Lord]

Yes. Wasn't that the post-Beeching experience?

It wasn't Beeching driving(!) people into cars, it was the opposite. Buying a car was a lifestyle aspiration in the late fifties/early sixties and once you'd bought it you were going to use it rather than grubby trains and buses, with the freedom to go where you liked when you liked without the threat of strikes leaving you stranded (rail and bus strikes in the fifties lost those operations many passengers who never came back).

 

[Ken H]

Much of the provinces have gone way past this point already.

there was a rant on Facebook about First Leeds cancelling the last bus up the main Chapletown/Harrogate Rd.
Getting stranded in the city centre at 23:00 is something you only need once.
So thats a few more people who wont trust the bus and will go on the razz nearer home.

 

[furnessvale]

A further alternative viewpoint is that people want to make journeys for which public transport was never a viable alternative and the car allows them to do this.

Once someone has purchased a car they tend to maximise its use as the only percieved add on cost for extra journeys is the cost of fuel.

 

[zwk500]

Once someone has purchased a car they tend to maximise its use as the only percieved add on cost for extra journeys is the cost of fuel.

Indeed, but the decision to purchase a car is independent of any changes to public transport provision.

 

[RobShipway]

Indeed, but the decision to purchase a car is independent of any changes to public transport provision.

I think it also depends on whether the person is travelling to a city where there is a congestion charge for entering or the parking prices an hour are half the train fare, it cost to travel to said city for the day.

For instance, if I drove to Brighton it would cost be about £8 an hour. Yet, I can catch the 12A bus from where I live in Seaford for £2 each way until the end of March or get a £5.20 ticket that covers me to travel in all the areas of Brighton & Hove bus network.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed, but the decision to purchase a car is independent of any changes to public transport provision.

I'd not agree. People who drive but don't own a car often do purchase one when they e.g. lose their local bus service and so can't continue their life without an alternative (and are perhaps not fit enough for cycling to be applicable).

 

[RT4038]

there was a rant on Facebook about First Leeds cancelling the last bus up the main Chapletown/Harrogate Rd.
Getting stranded in the city centre at 23:00 is something you only need once.
So thats a few more people who wont trust the bus and will go on the razz nearer home.

As if that is the first time it has ever happened? If the last bus is cancelled you get a taxi ! Surely nobody totally trusts the bus - only if it cancelled frequently will you go on the razz closer to home.

I'd not agree. People who drive but don't own a car often do purchase one when they e.g. lose their local bus service and so can't continue their life without an alternative (and are perhaps not fit enough for cycling to be applicable).

Or they want to pursue a new activity that there is no suitable bus for? Or they get fed up with the journey time difference, or being tied to timetables, or peer pressure. Or they get a promotion and can now afford one. There are lots of reasons.

 

[zwk500]

I'd not agree. People who drive but don't own a car often do purchase one when they e.g. lose their local bus service and so can't continue their life without an alternative (and are perhaps not fit enough for cycling to be applicable).

In my experience, coloured admittedly by living in a Rural village and then car-friendly MK, is that people who drive but don't own a car primarily don't because they can't afford it (or have some other difficulty using it like restrictive parking). The withdrawal of public transport services rarely effects either reason.
Happy to be given a wider view by somebody with more experience!

 

[Class142sbad]

An example of train lines or metro lines in this case poaching passengers from buses is in South Hylton, Sunderland. The bus services have declined ever since the metro was built there in 2002. There used to be a bus every 15 minutes but now there is only one every 30 minutes. Sunday services have Also declined, Used to be every 20 minutes now only every hour. (So the railway caused the decline in bus services)
Here are some old and new timetables:

1998

https://www.northeastbuses.co.uk/bygone/assets/uploads/SSSu899aMay10th1998.jpg

(North East Buses Bygone Era)

2023

https://tiscon-maps-stagecoachbus.s3.amazonaws.com/Timetables/North%20East/Sunderland/NE_Sunderland8Timetable2022November.pdf

(Stagecoach Sunderland)


Back on topic
I think that could increase rail ridership in some areas but in rural areas it could see a decline in rail ridership because the bus often acts as a feeder to the local towns and train stations. So with that connection being lost it could hinder some from using the railway.

 

[miklcct]

An alternative viewpoint could be that the less people have access to a comprehensive public transport network, the more likely they are to invest in private transport, eg car or motorcycle, and use that for ALL future jouneys.

I agree with this.

On the contrary, increased private transport ownership could also increase rail usage as more people drive to a suitable railhead for onward travel.

If I bother to start the car I'd rather drive all the way to the destination than paying the parking fee AND train fare to get on a slower mode of transport (unless the destination is Central London of course - even if I want to go to zone 2 on the same side I come from I'd rather drive all the way if I have to drive to the station to begin with).

A further alternative viewpoint is that people want to make journeys for which public transport was never a viable alternative and the car allows them to do this.

A hire car does this purpose well.

Yes, the same applies to other bus routes. Once public transport networks reduce, it tends to result in a feedback loop, hastening the decline of the network. That's one of the reasons for London's continued bus success - you can get to most places by bus pretty easily, and in the evenings and on Sundays to boot.

How can we level up the country to London standard?

It wasn't Beeching driving(!) people into cars, it was the opposite. Buying a car was a lifestyle aspiration in the late fifties/early sixties and once you'd bought it you were going to use it rather than grubby trains and buses, with the freedom to go where you liked when you liked without the threat of strikes leaving you stranded (rail and bus strikes in the fifties lost those operations many passengers who never came back).

Yes, but as usual, it is expensive and only affordable to the rich earning multiple dozen thousands of pounds per year (using the current price level).

there was a rant on Facebook about First Leeds cancelling the last bus up the main Chapletown/Harrogate Rd.
Getting stranded in the city centre at 23:00 is something you only need once.
So thats a few more people who wont trust the bus and will go on the razz nearer home.

Isn't the last bus of the day not cancelable under all circumstances (barring force majeure)? To my understanding if the last bus of the day breaks down because of any reason, the depot has to send out a replacement to complete the journey, or if staff shortage is known, then the second-last bus is delayed to become the last.

 

[Ken H]

I agree with this.

If I bother to start the car I'd rather drive all the way to the destination than paying the parking fee AND train fare to get on a slower mode of transport (unless the destination is Central London of course - even if I want to go to zone 2 on the same side I come from I'd rather drive all the way if I have to drive to the station to begin with).

A hire car does this purpose well.

How can we level up the country to London standard?

Yes, but as usual, it is expensive and only affordable to the rich earning multiple dozen thousands of pounds per year (using the current price level).

Isn't the last bus of the day not cancelable under all circumstances (barring force majeure)? To my understanding if the last bus of the day breaks down because of any reason, the depot has to send out a replacement to complete the journey, or if staff shortage is known, then the second-last bus is delayed to become the last.

It was a First Leeds 2. That has the same route to Mortown Corner as the Transdev 36 which runs later. Might be a long walk down Street Lane tho.
I am not aware of any rules outside London about cancelling last buses.

 

[RT4038]

How can we level up the country to London standard?

Allocate a very large sum of subsidy funding.

Isn't the last bus of the day not cancelable under all circumstances (barring force majeure)? To my understanding if the last bus of the day breaks down because of any reason, the depot has to send out a replacement to complete the journey, or if staff shortage is known, then the second-last bus is delayed to become the last.

Whilst this may be the theory, in the provinces this is highly unlikely because
(a) On many routes the second-last bus is probably the same vehicle and driver as the last bus, or is the last bus on another service or part of the same service;
(b) the chances of there being any supervisory staff of the right calibre on duty to make those kinds of decisions and issue the necessary instructions is fairly slim;
(c) the depot may well not have any PCV drivers on hand to take a replacement to complete the journey, which would therefore rely on waiting until one of the other last buses has arrived back and the driver agreeing to this extra task, possibly with a long delay.

Whilst the scenario of last bus cancelled probably doesn't happen ever so often (although all too often in the last 18 months or so in some places), last bus travellers are well advised to have a plan b (walking/calling for a lift/calling a taxi) for the occasions that it happens. In the provinces, this last bus may well be at 18h00 or 19h00 or thereabouts of course.

 

[WAB]

Whilst this may be the theory, in the provinces this is highly unlikely because
(a) On many routes the second-last bus is probably the same vehicle and driver as the last bus, or is the last bus on another service or part of the same service;
(b) the chances of there being any supervisory staff of the right calibre on duty to make those kinds of decisions and issue the necessary instructions is fairly slim;
(c) the depot may well not have any PCV drivers on hand to take a replacement to complete the journey, which would therefore rely on waiting until one of the other last buses has arrived back and the driver agreeing to this extra task, possibly with a long delay.

Whilst the scenario of last bus cancelled probably doesn't happen ever so often (although all too often in the last 18 months or so in some places), last bus travellers are well advised to have a plan b (walking/calling for a lift/calling a taxi) for the occasions that it happens. In the provinces, this last bus may well be at 18h00 or 19h00 or thereabouts of course.

Yes, I don't think I could ever rely on the last bus in the sticks. Another reason why people choose trains but not buses - at least alternative arrangements will be made for you on the railway.

 

[miklcct]

Yes, I don't think I could ever rely on the last bus in the sticks. Another reason why people choose trains but not buses - at least alternative arrangements will be made for you on the railway.

Have there ever been enforcement actions as a result of people getting stranded when the last bus didn't turned up in the UK?

In Hong Kong, back in 1995, a few hundred people were stranded and called the police when the last two route 15 buses didn't turned up to bring people back to the city, which resulted the police to send out vans up the peak. The bus company was fined as a result.

 

[JamesT]

Have there ever been enforcement actions as a result of people getting stranded when the last bus didn't turned up in the UK?

In Hong Kong, back in 1995, a few hundred people were stranded and called the police when the last two route 15 buses didn't turned up to bring people back to the city, which resulted the police to send out vans up the peak. The bus company was fined as a result.

Enforcement by whom? Outside of London, unless it’s one of the very rare exceptions, bus services aren’t specified by a public authority but run on a commercial basis.
Phoning the police because your bus hasn’t turned up sounds like one of the examples the UK police give of people wasting the time of 999.

 

[zwk500]

Enforcement by whom? Outside of London, unless it’s one of the very rare exceptions, bus services aren’t specified by a public authority but run on a commercial basis.
Phoning the police because your bus hasn’t turned up sounds like one of the examples the UK police give of people wasting the time of 999.

It would be Legitimate to call the police if there was a crowding or vulnerable people issue. However, as weve reminded that poster before, the reality is that rural UK just doesn't have the population density Hong Kong has.

 

[miklcct]

Phoning the police because your bus hasn’t turned up sounds like one of the examples the UK police give of people wasting the time of 999.

The last bus of the day not appearing will lead to people being stranded as there is no way to get home afterwards, especially when long distance is involved such as in the case of interurban buses.

It's unlikely that one will have the mean, for example, a few dozen pounds, to pay for a taxi for a long distance, or if one can even see a taxi at all deep in the rural area waiting for the last interurban bus home.

 

[zwk500]

The last bus of the day not appearing will lead to people being stranded as there is no way to get home afterwards, especially when long distance is involved such as in the case of interurban buses.

It's unlikely that one will have the mean, for example, a few dozen pounds, to pay for a taxi for a long distance, or if one can even see a taxi at all deep in the rural area waiting for the last interurban bus home.

In a rural area, there will be at most 2 people waiting for the last bus of the day and they are likely to live together. The police will not attend for anything other than a vulnerable person, and they would not do anything other than ring a taxi or take them to a safe place (which may be home if it's near enough or they have vulnerabilities that mean home is the best place).

You certainly won't get drivers being summoned out to the garage to put on extra buses or anything like that.

 

[WAB]

You certainly won't get drivers being summoned out to the garage to put on extra buses or anything like that.

If the last bus doesn't run? If so, the bus industry deserves its decline if leaving people stranded is of such little concern.