Actually you've just hit on something there. I'd be pretty sure (just a guess because I haven't reread the Act and the regulations), that the power to do this wouldn't exist. It would run foul of EU competition laws.More likely they'll come to an agreement with those operators for it to be a GM service inside GM and a commercial one outside of it, i.e. some sort of direct award. That's the pragmatic approach. It'll cost them a lot more to tender their own duplicate if those went away or ran non-stop inside GM.
There's plenty of this sort of peripheral stuff within the edges of TfL's area.
If TfGM say to Arriva "we'll pay you £x for running services on the 352", then that opportunity has to be available to Stagecoach, First, Diamond, etc. Which of course it wouldn't be, since only Arriva run the 352. They'd have to offer subsidy to anyone running a deregulated bus on that corridor, and they'd have to give a service permit to anyone to permit them to do so. EU law has a specific exception for rail contracts, which allows Direct Awards for up to 10 years maximum, so long as the contract is published 12 months in advance and so long as the value of the award is no higher than a reasonable rate of return on the capital invested and as long as there is no competition with commercial operators. As far as I know, there is no special provision for buses that would apply to the GM situation.
We also then have the situation regarding GM ticketing and equipment.
Under the Transport Act 2000 (as amended by the Bus Services Act 2017), the authority is supposed to publish the standard conditions which will apply to Service Permits (i.e. non-franchised buses). I have just searched the Greater Manchester Combined Authority / Mayor website, the "Doing Buses Differently" site and the TfGM website, and can't find the published document anywhere (if it even exists yet!). But what I find interesting is that the bare bones of the Act and the regulations (which are The Franchising Schemes (Service Permits) (England) Regulations 2018) don't say anything about revenue sharing. It just says that an authority can require the Service Permit bus to accept tickets it specifies, and to sell tickets at a specified price. On my reading, there's nothing saying they have to give the ticket receipts to TfGM, nor anything to say that TfGM have to reimburse the operator for tickets it has to accept.
So Arriva can be forced to cap its ticket prices to TfGM levels, and issue TfGM tickets, but they can keep all the money themselves. But on the other hand, they have to accept any passenger with a TfGM ticket even if not bought from them, and TfGM don't have to pay. That's what the regulations say.
If / when they introduce contactless price capping, trying to untangle that is just going to be a mess. For the Franchised operator it doesn't matter - TfGM gets the money anyway and the operator gets paid by them for running the bus. But for commercial operators divying up their share is important! It's not just the need to buy Oyster equipment which as others have said have put paid to most cross-boundary services in Greater London. It's the financial effects. It seems to me like they'll only get paid for passengers who buy a single that doesn't get capped, or who buy a ticket to /from outside the Greater Manchester area (and thus have to buy an Arriva fare rather than a TfGM ticket).
Again, there does seem to be a lack of planning here. Perhaps we'll see the Abbey Lakes turnoff reinstated after all! (I live literally 20 minutes away round the corner from there, and it isn't usable in present condition BTW. Also interesting is that the outbound bus stop is a TfGM maintained bus stop but it is actually on the Lancashire side of the border, but I digress).
===
On the withdrawal of the commercial services by Rotala, whilst looking up the regulations for the above, I came across provisions which actually anticipated that happening. The Act and the regs specifically make the TUPE regulations (which transfer drivers over to the new company) apply not just to the existing company but also to any former company that de-registered services before the Franchising contract came in (section 123X(2) Transport Act 2000). The Act also allows the authority to extend the notice period required to deregister commercial services before Franchising is introduced up to 112 days (which TfGM have done). So it was obviously realised when the laws were passed that a commercial operator who loses a bid may throw in the towel, but the 112 days notice requirement would be enough to stop anyone pulling out. Given that, it seems a ten month period between announcing the winner and starting the operation is the problem. If they'd shortened it to 112 days (16 weeks or 4 months) they wouldn't have this problem. If they'd run a London-style Franchising competition, 4 months would be more than enough, but adding all the stuff about buying depots and procuring transfer of fleets, etc., is probably why they've allowed longer.
