Next passenger aircraft in the works?

[Speed43125]

I'd guess second after Dubai - and it probably is thus right now; there's quite a lot in and out daily at the moment.

I have a suspicion I read at some point early in the Covid recovery, when Emirates were mostly just flying their 777s, Heathrow may have briefly had more

 

[Ted633]

British Airways is an odd one, at one point (actually for roughly 2 decades) they had over 50 747-400s. The replacement with smaller 787s and A350s in an airport as slot-constrained as Heathrow* may have been made on the understanding of a 3rd runway being built, but clearly wouldn't be viable if they stayed in a like for like market position. The A380 is thus in its niche and working as per the design brief for them.

Technically, the 777-9 was supposed to replace the last batch of Jumbo's, but COVID got in the way of that.

The A350 actually has a very similar number of seats to the 747's that were due to continue service (331 for the Airbus, 335 for the 747), although the 350 doesn't have first class.

 

[Speed43125]

Technically, the 777-9 was supposed to replace the last batch of Jumbo's, but COVID got in the way of that.

The A350 actually has a very similar number of seats to the 747's that were due to continue service (331 for the Airbus, 335 for the 747), although the 350 doesn't have first class.

That's interesting on the A350 point actually, First Class is generally an anomaly nowadays anyway, most airlines just do for more business which provides near enough the same experience.

I should have remembered the 777s though! A cabin actually designed from the start for 3-4-3 was something I was looking forward to pre-covid (when the EIS was still going to be 2021 ish).

 

[Cross City]

Boeing's strategy seems to be making newer versions of their existing 7x7 designs. See for example the 737 MAX and the 777X. I've heard several industry insiders suggest that Boeing are working on a 757 MAX too to compete with the A321 NEO - the 757 hasn't been built for 18 years so that's quite a revival if they do go for a 757 MAX as has been suggested rather than an all new design, but a 757 MAX would be much cheaper to design.

The 757 is dead with zero chance of revival. They've destroyed the tooling to make them and the 737 Max-9 more than fills most niches that a new 757 may be useful for, and ones that it doesn't it isn't worth the cost to Boeing to spend the massive amount of money needed to start remaking a 40 year old design.

The next Boeing aircraft will be from an entirely clean sheet design.

 

[edwin_m]

The 757 is dead with zero chance of revival. They've destroyed the tooling to make them and the 737 Max-9 more than fills most niches that a new 757 may be useful for, and ones that it doesn't it isn't worth the cost to Boeing to spend the massive amount of money needed to start remaking a 40 year old design.

Now that Congress has granted the necessary rules waiver, there will also be a MAX-10.

 

[birchesgreen]

One airliner which doesn't seem to have a future is the Mitsubishi Spacejet which looks like it is going to be finally killed off.

Aviation | Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

www.mhi.com

 

[Dr_Paul]

I've heard several industry insiders suggest that Boeing are working on a 757 MAX too to compete with the A321 NEO - the 757 hasn't been built for 18 years so that's quite a revival if they do go for a 757 MAX as has been suggested rather than an all new design, but a 757 MAX would be much cheaper to design.

The Boeing 757 is a old design, and its jigs have long been disposed of. There's little or no chance that it will be back in production. What I've heard is being considered is an entirely new plane that is the size of the 757, that is, a single-aisle plane of 150' to 180' length, to cover the gap between the Airbus A321 and the longest 737 and the 787-800 and A330-200/800.

 

[cjmillsnun]

The 757 is dead with zero chance of revival. They've destroyed the tooling to make them and the 737 Max-9 more than fills most niches that a new 757 may be useful for, and ones that it doesn't it isn't worth the cost to Boeing to spend the massive amount of money needed to start remaking a 40 year old design.

The next Boeing aircraft will be from an entirely clean sheet design.

Boeing’s mistake was not buying the C Series from Bombardier and letting Airbus do so. Airbus now have two newer platforms than the 737 (A32x and A220) with a potential stretch available for the A220.

 

[Snow1964]

The Boeing 757 is an old design, and its jigs have long been disposed of. There's little or no chance that it will be back in production. What I've heard is being considered is an entirely new plane that is the size of the 757, that is, a single-aisle plane of 150' to 180' length, to cover the gap between the Airbus A321 and the longest 737 and the 787-800 and A330-200/800.

I think Boeing considered the idea but it was rejected. From memory this was a question in one of the Boeing results presentations.

I think the executive answering said something like market wouldn't be big enough as it would have to steal sales from 737-10max and 787-8, where sizes almost overlap, so net extra sales doesn't justify the development.

 

[dosxuk]

There has long been discussions about a new mid-market sized aircraft from Boeing, and it has long been decided against. However, it keeps coming back as an idea as there is demand from airlines for something bigger than a 737 and smaller than a 787. The largest 737 models are unpopular as they are seen by many operators as a stretch too far for the base aircraft - and the advantages of a larger base platform, like the A320 and 757 become more and more important. For example, one of the key reasons that BA disposed of all their 737's to concentrate on the A32x series was to allow them to move to containerised baggage - something that is not possible in the 737 design. Likewise, the smallest 787 models are a lot of aircraft - and hence a lot of money - and optimised for long haul routes.

That said, they keep deciding against a new model, as the market isn't particularly big for an aircraft that size, and the 737 / 787 are seen as just about good enough.

 

[Dr_Paul]

That said, they keep deciding against a new model, as the market isn't particularly big for an aircraft that size, and the 737 / 787 are seen as just about good enough.

Yes, I've read something similar to this fairly recently. Presumably, Boeing is also hoping that on the same basis of a limited market Airbus won't try to embark upon their own new mid-size plane.

 

[Cross City]

I think Boeing could have a fair bit of success with a shortened 787 with a reduced MTOW and a bit of striping back of the landing gear, wing reinforcements, etc.

Low development cost and a gap in the market filler.

 

[dosxuk]

A small 787 is still a lot of aircraft - especially when it's competitor would be the A321-XLR. How many airlines are going to be able to justify that much larger an aircraft?

 

[Speed43125]

Haven't we can here with proposed 787-3 about a decade ago anyway? Didn't seem to gather enough support to justify development at the time.

 

[najaB]

Haven't we can here with proposed 787-3 about a decade ago anyway? Didn't seem to gather enough support to justify development at the time.

There were a decent number of orders from Japan mainly, but it was axed when the program got into trouble, and the orders shifted over to 787-8s.

 

[edwin_m]

This video discusses Boeing/NASA research on wing shapes that might appear in a new design in the 2030s, and suggests that along with emerging open fan engine technology this might be a reason Boeing isn't rushing into something sooner.

 

[Cloud Strife]

This video discusses Boeing/NASA research on wing shapes that might appear in a new design in the 2030s, and suggests that along with emerging open fan engine technology this might be a reason Boeing isn't rushing into something sooner.

Yes, there isn't really any point in Boeing going forward with a new design right now. The 737-Max will suffice for now, and if anything, they really need to get back to basics. Airbus can't and won't meet demand by themselves, so Boeing has a place regardless of what Airbus are doing.

A stretch A220 will be a knife in Boeing's side though, not least because they're already using the A220 on some ridiculous missions: Riga-Dubai is my favourite right now. A stretched A220 will be in the territory of the A320neo, but Airbus themselves are saying that the A32x programme is becoming mostly about the A321neo, so the (better) economics of the stretched A220 should work in its favour.

I would say at this point, Boeing should simply focus on producing what they have, while working away on things that will give them a significant jump forwards.

 

[Cross City]

A stretch A220 will be a knife in Boeing's side though,

I'd love this, the A220 is supremely comfortable and great fun to fly on.

 

[najaB]

I'd love this, the A220 is supremely comfortable and great fun to fly on.

I think it's now officially a question of 'when' not of 'if' for the A220-500. The last I remember reading was that Airbus were focused on getting the program completely under control and the production rate up a bit before launching it. Air France (for one) will snap up units the day that they become available.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Air France (for one) will snap up units the day that they become available.

Yes, I think it's very clear at this point that the A220-500 is likely to be a huge success story for Airbus. The existing A220 variants are doing a great job for Air Baltic on routes like Riga-Tenerife, but at the same time, it's a perfect plane for hops like Wroclaw-Zurich. If Airbus can keep fuel consumption low (it's currently under 1.8t / hour) with the -500, then they will murder the 737 with it.

 

[najaB]

If Airbus can keep fuel consumption low (it's currently under 1.8t / hour) with the -500, then they will murder the 737 with it.

And to think that Boeing almost bought the C Series project. That's likely to go down as one of the biggest corporate blunders ever.

 

[Irascible]

This video discusses Boeing/NASA research on wing shapes that might appear in a new design in the 2030s, and suggests that along with emerging open fan engine technology this might be a reason Boeing isn't rushing into something sooner.

Wing research is getting interesting these days - have a look at the Airbus flapping wingtip research, the aspect ratio on that wing is pretty startling.

That research plane looks oddly like the proposals for a twin on the BaE 146 platform...

 

[mpthomson]

Aeroflot I could see ordering the C919, now that the Irkut MC21 is effectively stalled in development.

I think Western airlines will avoid it for fears of what would happen to product support should Comac be sanctioned for whatever reason, like Huawei was.

As all C919s are western engined (LEAP) until at least 2030 they're off limits to Aeroflot for the forseeable future. The ACE engine won't be certified until something like 2027 as they've decided to make all the parts within China, and use no western parts.

 

[DanNCL]

As all C919s are western engined (LEAP) until at least 2030 they're off limits to Aeroflot for the forseeable future. The ACE engine won't be certified until something like 2027 as they've decided to make all the parts within China, and use no western parts.

Didn’t realise the Chinese made engines weren’t what they were already using!

 

[birchesgreen]

Didn’t realise the Chinese made engines weren’t what they were already using!

Engines are where the Chinese aerospace industry lags behind still.

 

[najaB]

Engines are where the Chinese aerospace industry lags behind still.

And the Russian one too.

 

[Cloud Strife]

And to think that Boeing almost bought the C Series project. That's likely to go down as one of the biggest corporate blunders ever.

Absolutely, it would have been small change to them, and it would have forced Airbus to find some new answer since the A318 failed. As it stands, now Boeing have to find something that will be a significant jump over the A220, and well, I don't see where it's coming from.

 

[MattRat]

Absolutely, it would have been small change to them, and it would have forced Airbus to find some new answer since the A318 failed. As it stands, now Boeing have to find something that will be a significant jump over the A220, and well, I don't see where it's coming from.

That's probably why they keep looking at Bombardier, so they can use the E2 as a base, pushing it to it's limits like the 737.

 

[najaB]

That's probably why they keep looking at Bombardier, so they can use the E2 as a base, pushing it to it's limits like the 737.

Did you mean Embraer?

 

[MattRat]

Did you mean Embraer?

Yes. Quite how I mixed up a Brazilian company and a Canadian company I don't know, particularly would said Canadian company already has a deal with Airbus, lol.