UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[AM9]

Ultimately the business case only works out if batteries are expensive enough to require strenuous efforts to maximally utilise them, and yet cheap enough that people are going to tolerate battery capacity being taken off them to use for grid operation. If the battery cost estimates from electric-car boosters are even close to accurate their simply won't be any need for any of this because it will be cheaper not to bother with this enormous bureaucracy and just stack more grid side batteries with their lower losses.

But offering battery capacity to the grid is notlikely to be a daily commitment, thereby effectively educimg the owner's usable range. There are already many who get virtually all of they EV energy from PV at home. Many of them do not use their cars for extended journeys every day or even every week,* thus there is a local store that is charged when the grid is not short of energy and can be sold when grid demand is high.
Some would be retired, others WfH whose mileage is pretty predictable from week to week.

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Only available for charging or discharging at certain times of day, they have serious restrictions on their capacity and their charge state at various times of day, and their position at the extremities of the grid system leads to major resistive roundtrip losses.

Only if they have been charged from the grid. As I said above, a significant source will be from EVs topped up every day from PV systems. Feeding 230V back into the local distribution system is doubly efficient as:

a) it hasn't used LV cables in the charging period (other than the domestic PV wiring and inverter which is transparent to the DNO)​

b) if red into a residentiallowe voltage system, it offsets the local loads which then have lower losses in their path​

 

[E27007]

I don’t doubt the article, but that seems surprising.

Take a VW ID3. The oldest of these is now around 2.5 years old. The list price starts at £36k Now; when they came out they were £32k IIRC. The cheapest second hand model I can find on Autotrader is £24,450, and that is for one with 58k miles on it (Not bad going in 30 months!). That’s 24% depreciation over 2.5 years. Doesn’t seem ‘worryingly high’ to me.

But the trend is very modest depreciation for petrol cars, down to the chip shortage and reduced output of vehicles, a neighbour has just sold a 13-plate VW Up, depreciation was only 30 % of purchase price when he purchased new. Workmates are receiving telephone calls from their dealers offering to buy back their nearly new cars for buyer purchase price, such is the shortage of stock for the forecourt

 

[reddragon]

But the trend is very modest depreciation for petrol cars, down to the chip shortage and reduced output of vehicles, a neighbour has just sold a 13-plate VW Up, depreciation was only 30 % of purchase price when he purchased new. Workmates are receiving telephone calls from their dealers offering to buy back their nearly new cars for buyer purchase price, such is the shortage of stock for the forecourt

The shortages have ended overall with plenty of supply coming in, but still some cars are hard to get. If you are fussy you have an issue, if you just want a car it's easier now.

 

[MotCO]

If you are fussy you have an issue, if you just want a car it's easier now.

New cars or second hand?

 

[jon0844]

New cars or second hand?

I'd say both. There are some cars lacking certain features due to supply chain issues, but overall supplies seem to be coming through pretty well for new cars (albeit some waiting lists are growing, especially for the MG4), which in turn means people aren't so desperate for a second hand car, pushing those values down.

 

[reddragon]

I'd say both. There are some cars lacking certain features due to supply chain issues, but overall supplies seem to be coming through pretty well for new cars (albeit some waiting lists are growing, especially for the MG4), which in turn means people aren't so desperate for a second hand car, pushing those values down.

There was a delay with the MG4 due to the need to do some minor updates to the breather pipe, undertray and a software issue. MG also have used this to update their company software to manage deliveries & software updates. Meanwhile thousands of them are sat in Portbury and multiple ship loads are arriving this month.

Last month Tesla delivers 1000's of cars before cutting unit prices, BYD, GWM, XPeng & Nio start delivering soon too in quantity.

Others are ramping up fast but some got themselves stuck in some gloop!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I've not been keeping up with this thread, but the worry with the push for battery cars (I refuse to call them "electric" because they aren't) is that only the well-off will have access to them. Not only due to the cost of the vehicles themselves, but access to off-road parking for overnight recharging. The carbon emissions from terrestrial transport, whether private IC cars or diesel trains, is a tiny fraction of total carbon emissions compared with things like power generation, but governments want to be seen to be doing "something" and targeting transport is a much easier sell than building a load of nuclear power stations- something that sooner or later will need to happen.

As things stand, the push towards battery powered vehicles will price large segments of the population off the roads. Unless there's a step-change in public transport provision to counteract this, I predict widespread civil unrest.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What is it about predicting civil unrest on here? People predict it for all sorts despite it almost never happening in the UK because it's just not in our psychy to do it.

One thing I think is certain - electric cars will not lead to any form of civil unrest other than slight arguments between neighbours about parking outside houses (so as to plug in) as already happens anyway.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

What is it about predicting civil unrest on here? People predict it for all sorts despite it almost never happening in the UK because it's just not in our psychy to do it.

One thing I think is certain - electric cars will not lead to any form of civil unrest other than slight arguments between neighbours about parking outside houses (so as to plug in) as already happens anyway.

Wires across pavements sounds like a recipe for dodgy law firms offering "no win no fee" type deals to anyone who happens to trip over one after a few too many sherberts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Wires across pavements sounds like a recipe for dodgy law firms offering "no win no fee" type deals to anyone who happens to trip over one after a few too many sherberts.

It isn't great but it will happen. It won't, however, cause civil unrest.

 

[johncrossley]

The carbon emissions from terrestrial transport, whether private IC cars or diesel trains, is a tiny fraction of total carbon emissions compared with things like power generation

But it is not just about carbon emissions. At the moment, it is mostly about urban air quality.

 

[jon0844]

I've not been keeping up with this thread

...But let's come on and post loads of already debunked myths anyway.

Civil unrest is a new one though, admittedly.

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Wires across pavements sounds like a recipe for dodgy law firms offering "no win no fee" type deals to anyone who happens to trip over one after a few too many sherberts.

Councils are allowing trunking in pavements in many areas to sort this problem, and I am sure in the next 5-10 years we'll see more use of induction coils for slow charging that could be pretty much anywhere.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Feb 2023 ==

But it is not just about carbon emissions. At the moment, it is mostly about urban air quality.

If electricity generation overnight can be 50-70% green, which is when a lot of people will slow charge, there are huge benefits both at the power source and at the usage point.

 

[AM9]

The carbon emissions from terrestrial transport, whether private IC cars or diesel trains, is a tiny fraction of total carbon emissions compared with things like power generation, but governments want to be seen to be doing "something" and targeting transport is a much easier sell than building a load of nuclear power stations- something that sooner or later will need to happen.

Well in the last 'normal' year of UK emissions (2019):
The total emissions were: 349MtCO2e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) - ref: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/carbon-co2-emissions
of that about 122 MtCO2e was from domestic transport - ref: https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...nsport-and-environment-statistics-autumn-2021
of which 91% came from road vehicles - also ref. in above link
of which 61% came from cars and taxis - also ref. in above link
thus of the total domestic CO2 emissions, cars and taxis contributed: (0.61 x 0.91 x 0.35) x 100 = 19.4%. Of the non-energy emissions, less than 100MtCO2e were from power generation (see graph here). So cars and taxis were greater than 20% of total energy generation emissions, - hardly "a tiny fraction" do you agree?

 

[Mawkie]

It isn't great but it will happen. It won't, however, cause civil unrest.

Like this gem in St Albans this morning? Plugged in with the charging cable through the bushes.

 

[Bald Rick]

I wonder what it is about this thread that seems to attract people who make statements as if they are fact, but without knowing the subject or having done any research into the issue. This thread seems to be affected more than any other.

I've not been keeping up with this thread, but the worry with the push for battery cars (I refuse to call them "electric" because they aren't)

well they’re not clockwork… what are they?

If these vehicle with electric motors aren’t electric, then those vehicles on rails with electric motors aren’t either.

The carbon emissions from terrestrial transport, whether private IC cars or diesel trains, is a tiny fraction of total carbon emissions compared with things like power generation

@AM9 has done exactly what I was going to - but to lay it out straight: in 2019, UK domestic transport greenhouse gas emissions were 122Mt CO2e (Million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent)

For the last year to today, U.K. electricity generation greenhouse gas emissions were 48.6Mt CO2e. And that includes us burning lots of gas and coal to send to France whilst more than half their Nuclear stations were off line last year.

As things stand, the push towards battery powered vehicles will price large segments of the population off the roads.

It won’t.

 

[Roast Veg]

Anyone priced off the roads would have been so no matter the power source. Cars are expensive these days.

 

[MotCO]

Anyone priced off the roads would have been so no matter the power source. Cars are expensive these days.

But you can still buy a car for £1,000 or so today (but probably not able to drive in ULEZs); will we ever be able to afford a second (or sixth) hand electric car for this sum which still has a working battery?

 

[jon0844]

But you can still buy a car for £1,000 or so today (but probably not able to drive in ULEZs); will we ever be able to afford a second (or sixth) hand electric car for this sum which still has a working battery?

Prices are beginning to normalise now, and while I am not sure what £1000 will get you in the EV world anytime soon, you can get a Nissan Leaf for under £5k with a usable range for the school/shopping run and getting to work locally, or maybe to/from the train station.

Future second hand cars will have better battery management than the early Leaf did, so they'll likely retain a much more usable range, and be pretty mechanically sound given the lack of parts compared to an ICE vehicle.

You might pay a bit more, but it's a lot less likely you'll find that cheap runaround was a short way off needing expensive work done to keep it on the road. I bet it will be a lot easier to do a test of the battery than all the other mechanics of an ICE vehicle.

 

[E27007]

An article in a current motoring magazine is not exactly comforting , the magazine tested around 12 EV cars for range in the recent cold weather where battery performance and range is constrained by the need for cabin heating and comfort.
Only one third of the cars in the test had a range of greater than 190 miles per full charge, the magazine gave 3.1 miles per kWh of battery capacity as a typical figure,yielding electricity consumption costs of typically 11p per mile with 34p per kwH for charging.
The charge of 34p / kWh seems low, i pay 46p per kwH for my domestic electricity. Contrasting with my elderly Honda Jazz, petrol costs are 13.5 p per mile, range is around 450 miles per refill, the elderly car tackles 400 miles journeys with aplomb. if electricity for EV charging were to be taxed on the same methodology as petrol, where the price of a litre of petrol is doubled by fuel duty and VAT, the 34 p of electricity escalates to 65 to 70p, At 34p per kwH the case for an EV is marginally in favour over a petrol car , at 46p per kwH the business case of an EV is weak, at 65 to 70 p per kwH the businers case foor an EV implodes in favour of the petrol car.

 

[johncrossley]

The charge of 34p / kWh seems low

Surely there is a cheaper night-time rate?

 

[stuu]

The charge of 34p / kWh seems low, i pay 46p per kwH for my domestic electricity.

The government price cap is 34p/kWh, so if you are being charged more then you should have a word with Ofgem. Assuming you have a normal sort of supplier and tariff

 

[Class 317]

An article in a current motoring magazine is not exactly comforting , the magazine tested around 12 EV cars for range in the recent cold weather where battery performance and range is constrained by the need for cabin heating and comfort.
Only one third of the cars in the test had a range of greater than 190 miles per full charge, the magazine gave 3.1 miles per kWh of battery capacity as a typical figure,yielding electricity consumption costs of typically 11p per mile with 34p per kwH for charging.
The charge of 34p / kWh seems low, i pay 46p per kwH for my domestic electricity. Contrasting with my elderly Honda Jazz, petrol costs are 13.5 p per mile, range is around 450 miles per refill, the elderly car tackles 400 miles journeys with aplomb. if electricity for EV charging were to be taxed on the same methodology as petrol, where the price of a litre of petrol is doubled by fuel duty and VAT, the 34 p of electricity escalates to 65 to 70p, At 34p per kwH the case for an EV is marginally in favour over a petrol car , at 46p per kwH the business case of an EV is weak, at 65 to 70 p per kwH the businers case foor an EV implodes in favour of the petrol car.

46p a KWH is likely an economy 7 tariff with a night time rate of 12p a KWH giving considerably lower fuel costs when charging overnight.

If you have an EV it would be very stupid not to charge when electricity is cheapest except for the rare few circumstances where that may not be possible.

 

[E27007]

The government price cap is 34p/kWh, so if you are being charged more then you should have a word with Ofgem. Assuming you have a normal sort of supplier and tariff

You are correct., reading the small print of the most recent statement for my home, the charge for metered consumption is 34p / kwH, the large print of 46 p came from total charge of electricity plus fixed standing charge, with the standing charge is amortised over the metered consumption , the figures bump the 34p to 46p, Perhaps i should phone the supplier and negotiate a reduction in the standing charge

 

[AM9]

Like this gem in St Albans this morning? Plugged in with the charging cable through the bushes. View attachment 129263

From that blurred shot I can't place that. Can you give me a clue as to where in St Albans that is please?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Feb 2023 ==

... at 65 to 70 p per kwH the businers case foor an EV implodes in favour of the petrol car.

No it won't because:

a) the price of fuel will rise whether demand for carbon fuels diminishes or not​

b) the availability of IC vehicles will rapidly diminish when all new cars are no longer manufactured​

c) the ability of polluting vehicles to freely use the road network will both become expensive and impossible in some areas, (ULEZs in many residential areas), - not just in London but many other towns and cities. That will be in response to public pressure as well as environmental commitment imperatives.​

 

[Mawkie]

From that blurred shot I can't place that. Can you give me a clue as to where in St Albans that is please?

Happily. On the shared cycle lane/path on London Road - this Streetview shot is facing the other direction for clarity.

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[AM9]

Happily. On the shared cycle lane/path on London Road - this Streetview shot is facing the other direction for clarity.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

Thanks. I did wonder if the orange blur in the background was an overbridge, but didn't realise that the land behind what was Casa Bianco/Giovanni's and that building itself had been completely redeveloped.
Of course, 'shared' in the context of paths doesn't mean sgared with with cars and it certainly doesn't mean denying 80% of the footpath to other users. That's a common problem in St Albans, especially with the predominance of newish SUV style cars, EVs or otherwise. Abuse like that will certainly be stamped out, hopfully with the proposed change in the law about obstructing footpaths. I would imagine tyhat the increased pressute to outlaw it is in part due to the likely practice of charging vehicles kerbside.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

If anyone can tell me how someone in a 10th floor flat is going to be able to securely charge their EV overnight, I'll be all ears...

 

[trebor79]

If anyone can tell me how someone in a 10th floor flat is going to be able to securely charge their EV overnight, I'll be all ears...

Simple. EVSE at their allocated parking space, secured by RFID card.

 

[Energy]

Like this gem in St Albans this morning? Plugged in with the charging cable through the bushes. View attachment 129263

The car doesn't charge itself, stupid parking is on the owner. Plenty of ICE cars are parked in stupid places...

Simple. EVSE at their allocated parking space, secured by RFID card.

Indeed, companies like Easee have worked on technology to have a load of slow rate chargers for flat parking lots.

 

[skyhigh]

The charge of 34p / kWh seems low

My car, in winter with the heating on, gets an average of 3.5 miles per kWh. I pay 10p per kWh on a tariff that is currently available to new and existing customers so seems fairly unremarkable to me. So that gives a rough price of 2.8p per mile for the electricity alone - which seems fairly good to me?

If anyone can tell me how someone in a 10th floor flat is going to be able to securely charge their EV overnight, I'll be all ears...

Well, the car will be parked somewhere. You put chargers in those places. See chargers built into lampposts and bollards on street, for an example. If we are serious about reducing emissions this will happen.