What will the price per kilometre actually be for HS2?

[Fazaar1889]

Graphs show HS2 price per km (ppk) to be much higher that equivalents but critics often say that it's because HS2's price includes the building of stations amongst others while the equivalent have split up the project. Does anyone know the actual ppk of HS2 when excluding the stations and other things?

 

[zwk500]

I don't see how you can exclude the stations as without them HS2 can't transport passengers. Continental HS tracks largely haven't built brand new city-centre stations, using their existing stations instead, with new stations being built on by-pass lines (often at Airports).

 

[HSTEd]

Graphs show HS2 price per km (ppk) to be much higher that equivalents but critics often say that it's because HS2's price includes the building of stations amongst others while the equivalent have split up the project. Does anyone know the actual ppk of HS2 when excluding the stations and other things?

Trying to decompose this is challenging in the extreme, because a lot of costs can't really be cleanly assigned to one or the other.

 

[Fazaar1889]

I don't see how you can exclude the stations as without them HS2 can't transport passengers. Continental HS tracks largely haven't built brand new city-centre stations, using their existing stations instead, with new stations being built on by-pass lines (often at Airports).

Oh that's interesting.

Trying to decompose this is challenging in the extreme, because a lot of costs can't really be cleanly assigned to one or the other.

Yeah fair enough

 

[zwk500]

Oh that's interesting.

Yes, the scale of HS2 is not comparable to what the continentals do. Not sure about the Japanese and of course the Chinese operate in a very different legal framework.

 

[Tio Terry]

The cost of (sometimes compulsory) purchasing land, properties and all the legal costs that go with that heavily distorts the cost of new railways in the UK compared with most European countries. The cost of the seemingly endless enquiries and consultations, usually followed by some kind of Civil Action, increases the security and administration costs, Parliamentary costs are not negligible to get Acts of Parliament passed. The discovery of Historical Sites cause delays to projects, upping the costs and lastly, but not least, there is always the discovery of unexploded ordnance - mostly just suspect and not real - that also brings everything to a stop which always costs.

It's very difficult to get a direct comparison. Best you can do is to compare the actual Construction cost - without all the rest - between different countries.

 

[zwk500]

The cost of (sometimes compulsory) purchasing land, properties and all the legal costs that go with that heavily distorts the cost of new railways in the UK compared with most European countries. The cost of the seemingly endless enquiries and consultations, usually followed by some kind of Civil Action, increases the security and administration costs, Parliamentary costs are not negligible to get Acts of Parliament passed. The discovery of Historical Sites cause delays to projects, upping the costs and lastly, but not least, there is always the discovery of unexploded ordnance - mostly just suspect and not real - that also brings everything to a stop which always costs.

It's very difficult to get a direct comparison. Best you can do is to compare the actual Construction cost - without all the rest - between different countries.

It's worth remembering that it's not like France and Germany just get some pencils and a map and send it off to the engineer's design office. Their planning and legal processes are easily comparable to ours.

For comparison: A direct route to Strasbourg was first proposed in 1969. The formal LGV Est project was started in 1985. The preliminary design came in 1992. It was first presented to the French parliament in 1986. It got formal approval in the LGV Masterplan in 1992, public inqury 1994, declaration as national public project 1996, funding for phase 1 in 2000, funding for phase 2 in 2007. Phase 1 (Paris-Nancy, 300km) opened in 2007 and phase 2 (106km) in 2016. Total cost estimated at EUR4Bn.

 

[Nottingham59]

This paper seems to be the latest costs estimates for phase 2bWest from Crewe to Manchester.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1047564/M11.pdf

Total = £17.2 Bn, of which £3.6Bn is for stations.

I don't know the line distance, but Crewe station to Manchester Piccadilly is 45km as the crow flies, which corresponds to £382M per km in total, and £300M per km excluding stations.

EDIT:
The latest costs for each phase of HS2 are given here:

High Speed Two 6-monthly report to Parliament: October 2022

Review of HS2 including programme update, local community impact and engagement, environment, benefits and programme governance.

www.gov.uk

Forecast costs by phase (2019 prices)​

Phase	Target cost	Total estimated costs range [2]
1	£40.3 billion	£35 billion to £45 bn
2a	To be determined	£5 billion to £7 billion
2b Western Leg	To be determined	£13 billion to £19 billion

 

[zwk500]

This paper seems to be the latest costs estimates for phase 2bWest from Crewe to Manchester.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1047564/M11.pdf

Total = £17.2 Bn, of which £3.6Bn is for stations.

I don't know the line distance, but Crewe station to Manchester Piccadilly is 45km as the crow flies, which corresponds to £382M per km in total, and £300M per km excluding stations.

Even excluding stations this still includes the large proportion of tunnels built to bring the line into Manchester city centre.

For comparison, Phase 1 of HS1 (67km Dollands Moor to Fawkham Jn) cost £1.7bn, and Phase 2 (39 Km Southfleet Jn to St Pancras) cost £3.5bn, not including Station fit out or Depot costs.

Phase 1 is Half the price for twice the length, but contains 2 miles of significant tunnelling compared to Phase 2's 11 miles.

 

[Nottingham59]

large proportion of tunnels built to bring the line into Manchester city centre

Sure. But HS2 has chosen a route that requires long tunnels. If they had approached Manchester from the Southwest over Carrington Moss, they would have only needed to half that length of tunnel.

Phase 1 is Half the price for twice the length, but contains 2 miles of significant tunnelling

I'm not sure I understand that. Doesn't phase 1 have the Chiltern Tunnels and tunnels all the way from Ruislip to Old Oak Common and then on to Euston?

EDIT:
I understand the Euston will cost around 2.5Bn, and Old Oak will cost around £1.8Bn. Curzon St and Interchange will be cheaper than these, so that should be enough to estimate a cost per km for Phase 1, excluding stations.

 

[zwk500]

Sure. But HS2 has chosen a route that requires long tunnels. If they had approached Manchester from the Southwest over Carrington Moss, they would have only needed to half that length of tunnel.

Indeed - but the Price per Km obscures what is actually costing the money.

I'm not sure I understand that. Phase 1 has the Chiltern Tunnels and tunnels all the way from Ruislip to Old Oak Common and then on to Euston.

Phase 1 of HS1.

 

[Nottingham59]

Indeed - but the Price per Km obscures what is actually costing the money.

Phase 1 of HS1.

OK. I see what you mean now. Tunnelling for HS2 Phase 2 is given as £4.2Bn, so it would be possible to strip those costs out too. But incurring tunnelling costs is part of the problem. I understand high speed lines in France generally go over hills rather than under them, and don't have any tunnels at all!

It all depends on how people choose to interpret the figures. If it were up to me, I would say that what is actually costing the money is ridiculous over-specfication of the line, and catastrophically bad cost control. But what do I know?

 

[zwk500]

OK. I see what you mean now. Tunnelling for HS2 Phase 2 is given as £4.2Bn, so it would be possible to strip those costs out too. But incurring tunnelling costs is part of the problem. I understand high speed lines in France generally go over hills rather than under them, and don't have any tunnels at all!

Indeed - and the French political situation around views of the line is very different, another cost to factor in.

It all depends on how people choose to interpret the figures. If it were up to me, I would say that what is actually costing the money is ridiculous over-specfication of the line, and catastrophically bad cost control. But what do I know?

From what I hear it was catastrophically underestimating the coat of land purchase that really blew the budget. But I haven't had any connection to the project at all.

 

[AlastairFraser]

OK. I see what you mean now. Tunnelling for HS2 Phase 2 is given as £4.2Bn, so it would be possible to strip those costs out too. But incurring tunnelling costs is part of the problem. I understand high speed lines in France generally go over hills rather than under them, and don't have any tunnels at all!

It all depends on how people choose to interpret the figures. If it were up to me, I would say that what is actually costing the money is ridiculous over-specfication of the line, and catastrophically bad cost control. But what do I know?

It's the insistence on serving the West Midlands for "regeneration" purposes.

A route London to South Yorks, to connect with a Liverpool - Manchester- Sheffield - Hull HS3 line (assuming the Transpennine Rail Upgrade has already been constructed) and a spur from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway would have been much cheaper, because of the topography.
North West journey times would have not been widely different if HS3 was integral part.

If you wanted extra capacity Lond
on to the West Mids, you could have electrified and 4 tracked the Chiltern Main Line instead.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It's worth remembering that it's not like France and Germany just get some pencils and a map and send it off to the engineer's design office. Their planning and legal processes are easily comparable to ours.

Germany has had its fair share of opposition to the Neubaustrecke works maybe less in former East Germany but not in the West.

 

[Bald Rick]

I understand high speed lines in France generally go over hills rather than under them, and don't have any tunnels at all!

the first LGV has no tunnels, but most of those built subsequently do.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Feb 2023 ==

Germany has had its fair share of opposition to the Neubaustrecke works maybe less in former East Germany but not in the West.

Indeed. Planning for the Wendlingen - Ulm NBS started in the late 80s. It opened a few weeks ago…

 

[stuu]

An interesting comparison is between HS2 Phase 2a and the currently under construction line between Brescia and Verona. They are similar length, with no stations or expensive urban tunnels. Yet the Italian line is between 2 and 3 times cheaper, even though it has several tunnels, one over 10km long. And the area is notably better off than Staffordshire

 

[Fazaar1889]

An interesting comparison is between HS2 Phase 2a and the currently under construction line between Brescia and Verona. They are similar length, with no stations or expensive urban tunnels. Yet the Italian line is between 2 and 3 times cheaper, even though it has several tunnels, one over 10km long. And the area is notably better off than Staffordshire

I guess one could claim that because they've already got experience building HSR, they don't need to spend money training new people? While it's not the whole answer, it could be part of the reason.

 

[stuu]

I guess one could claim that because they've already got experience building HSR, they don't need to spend money training new people? While it's not the whole answer, it could be part of the reason.

That may be true on the design side, and for specialist skills like tunnelling, but the bulk of the work is normal civil engineering

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That may be true on the design side, and for specialist skills like tunnelling, but the bulk of the work is normal civil engineering

Of course you never see the actual costs broken down as HS2 Ltd are masters at obscuration claiming commercial sensitivity and the DfT are quite happy to promote that line and in reality its govt policy. What we need is some investigative journalists but none of the railway press seem to want to ruffle feathers. The other thing which maybe in these costs though is NRs works to interface with HS2 and as was seen on CrossRail they ran widely over budget delivering infrastructure and station changes.

 

[bib]

Would phase 2a be the best data to use to get a figure for plain line construction costs? Its maybe 35-40miles from Hansacre to Crewe, with a budget of 5-7bn, although I'm not sure how much work is planned for crewe and how it would be split between Phase 2a/b. Say 6bn for 60km is £100m/km. But that is just the budget.
Still puts it pretty high compared to other projects if these numbers are right https://transitcosts.com/high-speed-rail-preliminary-data-analysis/
And still more expensive than the most expensive UK road https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-13924687

 

[Meerkat]

Would phase 2a be the best data to use to get a figure for plain line construction costs? Its maybe 35-40miles from Hansacre to Crewe, with a budget of 5-7bn, although I'm not sure how much work is planned for crewe and how it would be split between Phase 2a/b. Say 6bn for 60km is £100m/km. But that is just the budget.
Still puts it pretty high compared to other projects if these numbers are right https://transitcosts.com/high-speed-rail-preliminary-data-analysis/
And still more expensive than the most expensive UK road https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-13924687

Phase 2a requires some serious junction and station work at Crewe doesn't it?
How does the footprint and crossings compare between HS2 and foreign lines? When you see the flythroughs there is an awful lot of non-railway environmental mitigation land being bought and landscaped/planted, and when I have looked at some foreign lines I have been surprised how many roads they got away with cutting without replacement bridges.