Could DfT offload ‘spare’ GWR 802s to Grand Central? Or other TOC stock?

[Meerkat]

Having 802s run the Cardiff Penzance route seems very expensive, and DfT don’t like that sort of thing.
Are there enough spare (or be made spare by DfT dictat) that DfT could engineer that they swap with the Grand Central 180s, with the leverage of extended rights on the ECML?
I know GWR are anti-180, there are leases involved, and DfT don’t control path allocations, but DfT are holding a lot of cards and levers in the current climate. Laira could then have 180s and 175s dumped on them to sort GWRs stock shortage. Send them all and they might be able to get enough working every day!
Gets the last diesels out of King’s Cross, cheaper leasing for GWR.

 

[Wolfie]

Having 802s run the Cardiff Penzance route seems very expensive, and DfT don’t like that sort of thing.
Are there enough spare (or be made spare by DfT dictat) that DfT could engineer that they swap with the Grand Central 180s, with the leverage of extended rights on the ECML?
I know GWR are anti-180, there are leases involved, and DfT don’t control path allocations, but DfT are holding a lot of cards and levers in the current climate. Laira could then have 180s and 175s dumped on them to sort GWRs stock shortage. Send them all and they might be able to get enough working every day!
Gets the last diesels out of King’s Cross, cheaper leasing for GWR.

If the Grand Central 180s are anything like those on EMT, which apparently are suffering extensive corrosion problems, the only future that they have (without extensive expenditure which is unlikely in the current climate) is at Wilkinson Sword.....

 

[Meerkat]

If the Grand Central 180s are anything like those on EMT, which apparently are suffering extensive corrosion problems, the only future that they have (without extensive expenditure which is unlikely in the current climate) is at Wilkinson Sword.....

Or dump them cheap on GWR until they fall apart. DfT get to kick the can down the road a bit.

 

[Starmill]

No reason why not, if Grand Central wanted them on commercial terms. However, Arriva are unlikely to sign up to something which means a big increase in whole life costs for fleet in their GC business.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Feb 2023 ==

If the Grand Central 180s are anything like those on EMT, which apparently are suffering extensive corrosion problems, the only future that they have (without extensive expenditure which is unlikely in the current climate) is at Wilkinson Sword.....

Indeed. Far more likely that any 180s not taken on at GC, or the ones at GC should they take a commercial decision to replace them, will simply be scrapped.

 

[Energy]

Having 802s run the Cardiff Penzance route seems very expensive, and DfT don’t like that sort of thing.

Does it? The 802s are under a traditional lease from Eversholt, non IEP batches of AT300s aren't too expensive.

Are there enough spare (or be made spare by DfT dictat) that DfT could engineer that they swap with the Grand Central 180s, with the leverage of extended rights on the ECML?

They could offer a swap but it wouldn't make sense. As for extended rights they are awarded by the ORR and not the DfT, the ORR could agree to new track access terms on the condition that Grand Central runs electric trains into London but it would be unrelated to GWR.

As for GWR there has recently been money spent on longer sidings at Penzance for 9/10 car operation to London and there would need to be investment in staff training and depots for trains which would be leaving soon.

For the DfT they'd need a business case for the 175s and 180s which saves money, which I doubt.

 

[74A]

What would be the point ? You would be swapping one 5 car 125mph train for a different 5 car 125 mph train. Then there would be the staff costs of retraining etc.

 

[pdeaves]

Laira could then have 180s and 175s dumped on them

Or dump them cheap on GWR

I take it the underlying motive behind your suggestion does not involve any love for things green/west.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Having 802s run the Cardiff Penzance route seems very expensive, and DfT don’t like that sort of thing.

So you propose replacing one 5 car 125mph train with another 5 car 125mph train. That’s hardly going to make the operation any cheaper.

Add in all the training costs for crews and maintenance staff on both GWR and GC.

How on Earth do you figure this would be cheaper with all those extra costs?

 

[Meerkat]

No reason why not, if Grand Central wanted them on commercial terms. However, Arriva are unlikely to sign up to something which means a big increase in whole life costs for fleet in their GC business.

Why a big increase? They will be leased and I would hope any extension is dependent on them getting bi-modes - a transfer would quicker and maybe cheaper than buying new.

The 802s are under a traditional lease from Eversholt, non IEP batches of AT300s aren't too expensive.

Presumably pretty expensive for the stopper through Devon and Cornwall? I assume the owners of the 180's won't (can't!) expect much for the next lease.

As for extended rights they are awarded by the ORR and not the DfT

True, but wouldn't DfT's support/opposition make a difference?

What would be the point ? You would be swapping one 5 car 125mph train for a different 5 car 125 mph train. Then there would be the staff costs of retraining etc.

The theory to DfT would be that it would be cheaper. Might even free up some 158s for elsewhere.

I take it the underlying motive behind your suggestion does not involve any love for things green/west.

More a recognition of GWR not fancying the 180/175 hassle and DfT not caring about that!

 

[tbtc]

The first half of this offer made some sense to me. Whilst the economics of GC probably don’t stretch to paying “big” money to lease stock (hence sticking with the relatively “budget” 180s despite HT moving to 802s), i think it’d be better all round if the ECML had the more modern/ reliable/ bi-mode 802s rather than running unreliable DMUs under the wires from London to Northallerton.

(Whether the Government can/ should use public funds to “incentivise” this is another story, of course)

However, the second part… I could buy into the idea of GWR not really “needing” 125mph bi-mode trains for a service that doesn’t reach near 125mph and spends only a tiny proportion of its time under the wires (less than half an hour out of ash almost five hour journey)… 800/802s are overkill but used because the lack of “fast” Bristol services mean that they are spare…

…but bringing in 125mph DMUs to replace them seems over the top - the 800/802s were at least “native” trains doing a job that they weren’t suited to (but at least the staff were trained on them, the depots used to them)… bringing in equally unsuitable trains from the far side of England (which will require training as well as a rabbits foot in the cab to try to ward off the “bad luck” associated with the temperamental Adelantes!)

Given the government’s cuts around the corner, I’d guess there’ll be a few DMUs no longer needed… so what about pinching sufficient 158s from Northern/ EMR etc to run doubled up units from Cardiff to Penance? GWR are already familiar with the traction

If anything Northern are fairly well endowed in the “longer distance” DMU department (insufficient trains capable of doing the “basic” 150 duties , sure , but even before the government cutbacks are known there’s 158s deputising on “Local” services because the 158/170/195 fleet isn’t where the shortages are. More importantly, I’ve get the feeling that there’ll be some 185s leaving TPE before long, which could stay “up north”

The future of the 180s? I’m easy going; they could be cut up to make Diet Coke cans, it could be Pepsi Max, maybe Gillette will put in a bid… But not polluting the otherwise “Clean” King’s Cross, because now that the HSTs have left, the smelly Adelantes stick out a lot more and ruin the image of a “Green” Railway

 

[mike57]

Two problems with this:

I doubt GC have spare money for increased lease costs, of the OA operators on the ECML they seem to be the least well patronised

The 180s are unreliable, and have been for years. I am not sure how GC manage, maybe they are not as intensively used, but Hull trains very nearly failed because of them and had to bring in HSTs to keep going before the 802s were delivered. I would imagine when GC have finished with them they will be going to the rail equivilent of Steptoes Yard.

 

[Bald Rick]

Anything that involves moving small fleets around requiring significant driver training is not going to happen. To put it in context, driver training for a small fleet costs the same as for a large fleet, for any given number of drivers. With a lot of drivers to do, training for a new fleet can run into millions…

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Having 802s run the Cardiff Penzance route seems very expensive, and DfT don’t like that sort of thing.

I thought the DfT had just mandated the use of IETs on this route to kick out the HSTs?

 

[Bald Rick]

I thought the DfT had just mandated the use of IETs on this route to kick out the HSTs?

Strictly speaking, the DfT agreed to GWRs proposal to do so…

 

[Meerkat]

Thank you all, very interesting.
When is the lease for the 802s up?

 

[43096]

Strictly speaking, the DfT agreed to GWRs proposal to do so…

At the instigation of DfT asking for cost saving measures.

 

[Irascible]

I take it the underlying motive behind your suggestion does not involve any love for things green/west.

It's what we deserve, apparently. I'm surprised there's a suggestion of sending trains built this millenium our way, unless London is involved somewhere.

 

[stuu]

It's what we deserve, apparently. I'm surprised there's a suggestion of sending trains built this millenium our way, unless London is involved somewhere.

When were the voyagers built?

 

[James90012]

Really the spare 802s out West should be sent to LNER to ditch the 91s and be replaced with other DMUs. 175s perhaps.

But a separate point is within this idea, is it in the Government's interest that GC are incentivised to move to an 80X based train to improve overall performance on the ECML. One for GBR perhaps.

 

[Energy]

Thank you all, very interesting.
When is the lease for the 802s up?

2028.

Strictly speaking, the DfT agreed to GWRs proposal to do so…

Indeed. The TOCs were told that it was the same money as last year (10% real terms cut) and proposals to cut stock or not renew were agreed with the DfT.

Two problems with this:

I doubt GC have spare money for increased lease costs, of the OA operators on the ECML they seem to be the least well patronised

The 180s are unreliable, and have been for years. I am not sure how GC manage, maybe they are not as intensively used, but Hull trains very nearly failed because of them and had to bring in HSTs to keep going before the 802s were delivered. I would imagine when GC have finished with them they will be going to the rail equivilent of Steptoes Yard.

For GC the future is getting a business case done for new stock and a track access extension and get quotes for new bi mode stock. No investment in staff training and new stock will be made until it gets a new track access agreement.

However, the second part… I could buy into the idea of GWR not really “needing” 125mph bi-mode trains for a service that doesn’t reach near 125mph and spends only a tiny proportion of its time under the wires (less than half an hour out of ash almost five hour journey)… 800/802s are overkill but used because the lack of “fast” Bristol services mean that they are spare…

…but bringing in 125mph DMUs to replace them seems over the top - the 800/802s were at least “native” trains doing a job that they weren’t suited to (but at least the staff were trained on them, the depots used to them)… bringing in equally unsuitable trains from the far side of England (which will require training as well as a rabbits foot in the cab to try to ward off the “bad luck” associated with the temperamental Adelantes!)

Given the government’s cuts around the corner, I’d guess there’ll be a few DMUs no longer needed… so what about pinching sufficient 158s from Northern/ EMR etc to run doubled up units from Cardiff to Penance? GWR are already familiar with the traction

Project Churchward at GWR is for a new fleet of regional trains which would be a long term solution when the 802s are needed back for Bristol fasts.

More a recognition of GWR not fancying the 180/175 hassle and DfT not caring about that!

The DfT look to have a good relationship with GWR management, proposals start at GWR/FG (but maybe from DfT prompt) and are signed off by the DfT.

True, but wouldn't DfT's support/opposition make a difference?

It makes an impact not a difference. As long ad it isn't abstracting revenue it can get through despite the DfT not wanting them. The Grand Union proposals wouldn't have got through if the DfT was in charge.

But a separate point is within this idea, is it in the Government's interest that GC are incentivised to move to an 80X based train to improve overall performance on the ECML. One for GBR perhaps.

For more paths on the ECML maybe but the track access agreement ends in a couple years so NR giving tighter 80X timed paths on the next agreement would be an easier way to improve ECML performance

Really the spare 802s out West should be sent to LNER to ditch the 91s and be replaced with other DMUs. 175s perhaps.

LNER can get its own, GWR will need theirs for the Bristol fasts when they return in the future.

 

[irish_rail]

2028.

Indeed. The TOCs were told that it was the same money as last year (10% real terms cut) and proposals to cut stock or not renew were agreed with the DfT.

For GC the future is getting a business case done for new stock and a track access extension and get quotes for new bi mode stock. No investment in staff training and new stock will be made until it gets a new track access agreement.

Project Churchill at GWR is for a new fleet of regional trains which would be a long term solution when the 802s are needed back for Bristol fasts.

The DfT look to have a good relationship with GWR management, proposals start at GWR/FG (but maybe from DfT prompt) and are signed off by the DfT.

It makes an impact not a difference. As long ad it isn't abstracting revenue it can get through despite the DfT not wanting them. The Grand Union proposals wouldn't have got through if the DfT was in charge.

For more paths on the ECML maybe but the track access agreement ends in a couple years so NR giving tighter 80X timed paths on the next agreement would be an easier way to improve ECML performance

LNER can get its own, GWR will need theirs for the Bristol fasts when they return in the future.

Is the plan for the Bristol fasts to return though? I can't envisage enough demand frankly. Id be happy to give up a load of 5s to LNER and let us keep the Castles for a few more years until some more 9 car 802s can be sourced in future.

 

[MattRat]

Ordering a bunch of 19X Civities for said service, as well as replacing 158 and 16X Networkers, would probably be cheaper in the long run. That's how little traction this idea has.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Project Churchill at GWR is for a new fleet of regional trains which would be a long term solution when the 802s are needed back for Bristol fasts.

Churchward not Churchill I believe!

 

[Energy]

Churchward not Churchill I believe!

Good spot

Is the plan for the Bristol fasts to return though? I can't envisage enough demand frankly. Id be happy to give up a load of 5s to LNER and let us keep the Castles for a few more years until some more 9 car 802s can be sourced in future.

GWR's passenger numbers are on the rise afaik so I'd expect them in the somewhat distant future, the timings for project churchward are beyond 2028 so that would line up fairly well with increased demand. Keeping the castles wouldn't affect the GWR long distance services getting 9 cars, its ~14 5 car units leaving instead of ~14 5 car units being switched away from long distance.

 

[JonathanH]

GWR's passenger numbers are on the rise afaik so I'd expect them in the somewhat distant future, the timings for project churchward are beyond 2028 so that would line up fairly well with increased demand.

Plenty that can be done with price before more services are needed.

 

[RPI]

Pie in the sky, the Cardiff-Penzance isn't the best use of the IET'S but far cheaper than the current "Castle" sets which are hideously expensive to run. Using the IET'S mean they come out of a large poor of sets, crews are mostly already trained, no micro fleets and can at least utilise the wires at one end of the journey.
Personally I can't wait to see the back of the HST's now as they're past their best, I've yet to have one in the past 12 months that has four coaches with heating or aircon working, not to mention the corrosion and potential inferior crash worthiness.
The HST was the greatest train ever built but their time is up.
Its also fair to say that a significant number of people do use these services to travel considerable distances, despite the stopping nature of them so an intercity type train isn't a complete waste.

 

[Energy]

Pie in the sky, the Cardiff-Penzance isn't the best use of the IET'S but far cheaper than the current "Castle" sets which are hideously expensive to run. Using the IET'S mean they come out of a large poor of sets, crews are mostly already trained, no micro fleets and can at least utilise the wires at one end of the journey.

Agreed, not sure why people think the 180s would be cheaper to run, as for weight it's 252.5T for a 180 vs 253.5T for a 802 and 180s will need a significant investment given their current state

 

[Meerkat]

Agreed, not sure why people think the 180s would be cheaper to run, as for weight it's 252.5T for a 180 vs 253.5T for a 802 and 180s will need a significant investment given their current state

I was only thinking of the lease charges, which would surely be significantly less than an 802.
I would accept that the idea dies if they need significant investment, but I was thinking that between the 180s and 175s you could cobble together enough functional ones that will last until the GWR is allowed to order new regional/local stock.
The crew and maintenance training cost is the problem that hadn't really occurred to me, though at the GC end it will happen anyway as they really should be forced to get bi-modes in if they want an extension.

 

[RPI]

I was only thinking of the lease charges, which would surely be significantly less than an 802.
I would accept that the idea dies if they need significant investment, but I was thinking that between the 180s and 175s you could cobble together enough functional ones that will last until the GWR is allowed to order new regional/local stock.
The crew and maintenance training cost is the problem that hadn't really occurred to me, though at the GC end it will happen anyway as they really should be forced to get bi-modes in if they want an extension.

But why? The lease agreements for the 800 and 802 are still ongoing, these trains are very busy and they're long distance, they tick all the boxes, passenger numbers on GWR continue to rise as well.
If the 175's were to appear with GWR (im fairly confident they wont) its most likely they would end up on Cardiff to Portsmouth (again, this is as pie in the sky as the 80x's going), freeing 16x's for capacity enhancements in the West and possibly even to see off the first few 150's.

 

[43096]

But why? The lease agreements for the 800 and 802 are still ongoing, these trains are very busy and they're long distance, they tick all the boxes, passenger numbers on GWR continue to rise as well.

Because the 180s are mid-life with an uncertain future. That for a start would suggest cheaper to lease.