National Grid warns of possible blackouts

[yorksrob]

The head of a Norwegian gas/oil company was on the radio a couple of days ago complaining that their plans to open up a new gas field in the North sea were under reconsideration due to the windfall taxes that might be levied.

Whilst I don't doubt that this is true, I was surprised that he said such fields were vital to the countries energy security, given that without windfall taxes the gas extracted could be flogged off to any old Tom Dick or Harry at the inflated global market rate.

The reality is, that without substantial windfall taxation, the products of such a field would be a foreign import in all but name as soon as it came out of the ground, contributing little to price stability or energy security

BBC Radio 4 - Today, 18/01/2023

News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bald Rick]

Definitely not no. Depends on the system and technology used.

That’s just one form. There are others. For example, one type is basically an underwater turbine that operates with the slow flow of water. No big concrete dam needed. So if these were mass produced (so hopefully cheaper than conventional if enough are made) and all connected together, they could generate a significant amount of electricity.

Thats a fair point about tidal stream technology, but my understanding is that it will always be a lot more expensive than wind. A handful of schemes won Contracts for Difference last time round, and their strike price is nearly 5 x that of offshore wind. The total capacity of the 4 projects will be about the same as 3 offshore wind turbines, ie about 3% of the Dogger Bank ‘A’ wind warm currently under construction.

 

[brad465]

Three coal plants being warmed up and the home discount scheme being introduced for tomorrow:

People will be paid to use less electricity on Monday

Some households who cut peak-time electricity use on Monday will get discounts on their bills.

www.bbc.co.uk

Three UK coal plants have been ordered to begin warming up in case they are needed as the cold snap continues.
National Grid ESO said it had asked power station operator Drax to prepare two coal-fired units and EDF to warm up its West Burton plant.
A scheme that offers discounts for households who cut peak-time energy use is also set to be triggered.
National Grid ESO said the measures were "precautionary" and it did not mean electricity supplies were at risk.
The company said that it expected electricity supply margins to be "tighter than normal" on Monday evening.
However, it added that "people should not be worried" by the measures.
"These are precautionary measures to maintain the buffer of spare capacity we need," it said.
The cold weather means demand for energy rises as more people heat their homes, but a lack of wind has reduced the amount of renewable energy available.
A similar request to warm up coal plants was made in December last year, although in the event they were not used.

National Grid ESO also said that between 17:00 and 18:00 GMT it would activate a scheme that allows some households to receive discounts if they cut their use of electricity, by, for example, delaying the use of a tumble-dryer or washing machine.
The scheme, called the demand flexibility service, is available to homes with smart meters and whose energy supplier is signed up to it.
According to National Grid ESO, 26 suppliers have joined the scheme, including firms such as British Gas, EoN, Octopus Energy and EDF, and more than a million households and businesses have now signed up to take part.
The scheme is scheduled to run until March and until now has only been used in tests.
Last year, the boss of National Grid told BBC News that blackouts would be a last resort this winter if energy supplies run low.
John Pettigrew said National Grid's "base case" assumption was the UK would have enough supplies to meet heating and lighting demand.

Worth remembering the last time the standby coal was warmed up in the end it wasn't used, so no guarantee they will this time.

 

[AM9]

Worth remembering the last time the standby coal was warmed up in the end it wasn't used, so no guarantee they will this time.

But if we are lucky and scrape by, there will be some posters along here accusing everybody of scaremongering of course!

 

[GusB]

I've had an email from Loop asking me to take part in their Turn Down and Save scheme between 17.00 and 18.00 tomorrow. I've registered for this one, but I managed to miss the last two occasions.

 

[DelayRepay]

I've had an email from Loop asking me to take part in their Turn Down and Save scheme between 17.00 and 18.00 tomorrow. I've registered for this one, but I managed to miss the last two occasions.

Me too. I've taken part in all of them so far and made a total of about £8. Not through reducing demand but by shifting it to earlier in the day. The formula is odd because when setting the 'baseline' they take into account the same period over the previous ten days, and also your usage in the three hour period that ends an hour before the saving hour starts. So today you can benefit by shifting usage to 1pm - 4pm.

When they've run the 5pm - 6pm slots, I've saved by running the washing machine or dishwasher in the afternoon. Normally I do the washing in the morning and the dishwasher in the evening, so moving them to the 1pm - 4pm period increased my baseline for the 5pm - 6pm slot. I doubt I'll benefit today though as I don't have enough washing or dirty dishes to need to run the appliances at all.

 

[The Lad]

Given the size of the payments would it be worth running the hot water immersion heater this afternoon?
ie a consumption of 2kwh in the baseline at say 50p gives a return of £2.

 

[najaB]

Me too. I've taken part in all of them so far and made a total of about £8. Not through reducing demand but by shifting it to earlier in the day.

£8 isn't much in the grand scheme of things, but £8 for basically doing nothing is better than a kick in the teeth.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Three coal plants being warmed up and the home discount scheme being introduced for tomorrow:

People will be paid to use less electricity on Monday

Some households who cut peak-time electricity use on Monday will get discounts on their bills.

www.bbc.co.uk

Worth remembering the last time the standby coal was warmed up in the end it wasn't used, so no guarantee they will this time.

No there's no guarantee but its prudent management of the system as they need 8hrs min from a cold start to be ready to generate. Remember NG has to be able to cater for biggest loss of generation and with Norway i/c running at 1.4GW thats a lot of load to pick up so best to have some of the coal units running in spinning reserve. However, the wind outturn has been revised upwards by around 1GW from tea time this afternoon so that will probably avoid the need for both Drax and W.Burton to be warmed up.

 

[swt_passenger]

I’ve just been told I can have £3 for every kWh I can get below the target of 0.4 kWh between 1700 and 1800.
It‘s practically impossible without completely going dead, ie turning the gas heating off, fridge off, every charger off and all standby items off at the wall, and then sitting in the dark.

The last attempted “shift and save”, last week, got me all of 27p, it was between 0900 and 1000.

If I turn off at the consumer unit for ease I expect I could get £1.20. Sorry but I‘d rather have the lights on thanks.

 

[Freightmaster]

I’ve just been told I can have £3 for every kWh I can get below the target of 0.4 kWh between 1700 and 1800.
It‘s practically impossible without completely going dead, ie turning the gas heating off, fridge off, every charger off and all standby items off at the wall, and then sitting in the dark.

The last attempted “shift and save”, last week, got me all of 27p, it was between 0900 and 1000.

If I turn off at the consumer unit for ease I expect I could get £1.20. Sorry but I‘d rather have the lights on thanks.

I think the scheme is aimed more at profligate households (such as large families) who use 12kWh a day or more
rather than people who are frugal with electricity in the first place?





MARK

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the scheme is aimed more at profligate households (such as large families) who use 12kWh a day or more
rather than people who are frugal with electricity in the first place?

That and to get people who cook their tea around 5 to shift it a bit later to reduce the demand peak. Unfortunately I tend not to have it that early so bar not making tea in that time and running the laptop off its battery there's not much to do.

 

[swt_passenger]

I think the scheme is aimed more at profligate households (such as large families) who use 12kWh a day or more
rather than people who are frugal with electricity in the first place?

Oh yes, I’m sure you’re right. I’m gas for both central heating and water heating, the electrical base load is pretty low, and hardly varies with the time of year, or even the time of day. I‘m more careful with lighting levels around the house than I was last year, but I think the tumble drier is the only main seasonal difference, and it’s only on about once a week if that..

 

[telstarbox]

On the subject of interconnectors I was impressed to find there is one running through the Channel Tunnel!

ElecLink is a 1000 MW HVDC electrical interconnector between the UK and France, passing through the Channel Tunnel.

ElecLink commenced operations on 25 May 2022 following several delays due to safety concerns.

ElecLink - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DelayRepay]

£8 isn't much in the grand scheme of things, but £8 for basically doing nothing is better than a kick in the teeth.

Indeed - £8 is nothing when I look at how much my energy bill is, and how much it would be without the government support. I may make £20 - £30 by the end of the winter if there are further sessions, but financially it's not enough to drive different behaviour. If there was a request from National Grid to reduce usage between 5pm - 6pm today due to supply concerns, then I would probably do it anyway. The only thing I wouldn't do is specifically shift usage to a timeslot that is beneficial under the scheme (e.g. I would leave the dishwasher until later in the evening, instead of bringing it forward to 1pm so it counts as part of my baseline).

The last attempted “shift and save”, last week, got me all of 27p, it was between 0900 and 1000.

I think I got about £2 from that one, but I didn't do anything different at all. I was out at work on the day in question, so my power use at home was low, but even when I work from home it's light at that time, so the only extra power used is to run my laptop, monitor, and sometimes a lamp if it's a dark day. I must have benefitted from the high baseline caused by my electric shower, boiling the kettle, making some toast and microwaving some milk for my breakfast before I left home.

If I put more effort into it, I could probably game the system even more by turning my (gas) central heating off, and heating the house this afternoon with an electric fan heater. As long as I turn it off before 4pm I think I'd be up on the deal.

That and to get people who cook their tea around 5 to shift it a bit later to reduce the demand peak. Unfortunately I tend not to have it that early so bar not making tea in that time and running the laptop off its battery there's not much to do.

As above, game the system. Do any high-energy tasks between 1pm - 4pm and it will increase your base load. It doesn't actually matter if you're shifting the activity from earlier/later today, or even later in the week. I've got a wash on now. I wouldn't normally do laundry on a Monday but I've got a full load so why not?

 

[brad465]

The standby coal generators have been stood down, while a decision will be made this afternoon regarding whether the Demand Flexibility service will be brought in tomorrow.

 

[Trackman]

The standby coal generators have been stood down, while a decision will be made this afternoon regarding whether the Demand Flexibility service will be brought in tomorrow.

From Sky news, not long since:

National Grid to pay households to use less electricity, as coal-fired power generators put on standby

National Grid ESO says the move is not a sign that electricity supplies are at risk and insists "people should not be worried".

news.sky.com

Plans for energy companies to offer people discounts for cutting their electricity usage have been extended into tomorrow.

Some households with smart meters could be eligible for the discounts if they save energy between 5pm and 6pm on Monday, and between 4.30pm and 6pm on Tuesday.



For the first time, the National Grid ESO (electricity system operator) is activating its "demand flexibility service (DFS)".

The idea is to moderate demand when it's at its highest during very cold winter days.

Households with up-to-date smart meters, which are signed up to the scheme via their supplier, can access discounts if they cut their electricity use by turning off energy intensive appliances during set times.


ESO said it is looking for bids from suppliers to help save up to 341 megawatts of power between 4.30pm and 6pm on Tuesday.

The plan could still be abandoned if conditions improve.

Will you be taking part in the Demand Flexibility Service? Tell us about your experience

The scheme reportedly compares usage against a customer's usual demand and pays £3 for every unit or kilowatt hour (kWh) saved.


It's thought it could reduce household bills by up to £100 over the winter.

The scheme is due to stay in place until March, with 26 energy suppliers, including Octopus Energy and EDF, supporting it.

Until now, the DFS has only been used in tests.

 

[Mogster]

According to electricitymaps.com Germany are using nearly 30GW of coal at 14:00.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

According to electricitymaps.com Germany are using nearly 30GW of coal at 14:00.

For coal read Brown Coal known as lignite far more polluting than decent black coal we used to mine but we'd rather import polluting power from Europe so it makes us look good.

 

[brad465]

For coal read Brown Coal known as lignite far more polluting than decent black coal we used to mine but we'd rather import polluting power from Europe so it makes us look good.

Importing it to make our pollution stats look good is a bonus. The biggest reason is likely to be it's cheaper to import than mine our own, due to mining costs being very expensive here (we've already mined most of the low hanging fruit). This is also why we go to the Middle East and, until recently, Russia for oil and gas more than our own sources, cheaper extraction costs over there than they are here, even once import costs are considered, oil and gas although advocates find it convenient to blame green activists who didn't exist until relatively recently.

 

[najaB]

For coal read Brown Coal known as lignite far more polluting than decent black coal we used to mine but we'd rather import polluting power from Europe so it makes us look good.

So far today, based on National Grid statistics, less than 10% of our energy has been supplied from Europe and most of that has been nuclear from France (1.6%) and Belgium (1.1%) and hydro from Norway (3.5%).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So far today, based on National Grid statistics, less than 10% of our energy has been supplied from Europe and most of that has been nuclear from France (1.6%) and Belgium (1.1%) and hydro from Norway (3.5%).

France can only spare us power because we are currently prepared to pay more for it and as a result all their cross country interconnectors are in import mode so some of the brown lignite is in the generation mix.

 

[DarloRich]

lots of lovely info on energy production above. Simple question: Are we heading for any form of blackouts. I think NOT but unsure why!

 

[najaB]

Simple question: Are we heading for any form of blackouts. I think NOT but unsure why!

At the moment, no. As to why: a relatively warm winter with lots of wind.

 

[DarloRich]

At the moment, no. As to why: a relatively warm winter with lots of wind.

Thanks - that is what I thought but assumed there was more to it than that!

 

[AM9]

Thanks - that is what I thought but assumed there was more to it than that!

In a way, the unusual situation this winter (i.e. a combination of potential limits on amount gas available, much higher cost of gas, cold weather) has given the supply industry an opportunity to plan for such events, with a relatively sympathetic customer base. It has also given the Government a reminder that net zero planning and investment is doable but needs long-term commitment.

 

[Noddy]

What’s interesting about the last few days is that although there is ‘no wind’ (certainly it’s blue skies and completely still in my area) looking at the data we seem to have been producing a very steady 5GW (just slightly more than nuclear) from wind for that period. Which is not an insignificant amount especially as many more farms are due to come online in the next couple of years.

 

[brad465]

What’s interesting about the last few days is that although there is ‘no wind’ (certainly it’s blue skies and completely still in my area) looking at the data we seem to have been producing a very steady 5GW (just slightly more than nuclear) from wind for that period. Which is not an insignificant amount especially as many more farms are due to come online in the next couple of years.

There's still wind around over Scotland and off the Scottish coasts, so that'll likely be where most of our wind power is coming from right now.

 

[Bald Rick]

What’s interesting about the last few days is that although there is ‘no wind’ (certainly it’s blue skies and completely still in my area) looking at the data we seem to have been producing a very steady 5GW (just slightly more than nuclear) from wind for that period. Which is not an insignificant amount especially as many more farms are due to come online in the next couple of years.

Current wind - moderate breeze in the northern half of the North Sea will be giving us that 5GW.

 

[Noddy]

View attachment 127659

Current wind - moderate breeze in the northern half of the North Sea will be giving us that 5GW.

Still impressive none the less considering the vast majority of that would register at <20knots. I guess the stronger winds coming in from the NW accounts for the recent uptick to 6+GW.