Russia invades Ukraine

[takno]

The Swiss are a fairly major player in international arms, something like 14th in the world.

They won't stay that way if they try to stop the buyers from actually using the damn things

 

[Gloster]

They won't stay that way if they try to stop the buyers from actually using the damn things

But they will say that they aren’t stopping the buyers from using the arms: merely insisting that the terms of the end user certificates are kept to. Please don’t mention all those roubles that will have been deposited in Swiss banks.

 

[AM9]

But they will say that they aren’t stopping the buyers from using the arms: merely insisting that the terms of the end user certificates are kept to. Please don’t mention all those roubles that will have been deposited in Swiss banks.

That's right, end user certificates that might include material and components from third part countries including the UK, US and many others. Sorting that out including which serial numbers had which items fitted, and then getting formal clearance is not a trivial task which if bypassed on a nod and a wink could jeopardise future supply of items. The rules are complex and comprehensive, here is the UK document, and every other participating nation that it mentions has equivalent rules. Note that Uklraine is not inlcuded as a destination for defence products. Clearing them through under wartime conditions would be quite onerous.

 

[Annetts key]

Switzerland seems to be blocking some hardware from Spain from being donated.

Surely the solution is rather simple. If the Swiss are so serious about being ‘neutral’ just tell them that if they don’t give written permission for weapons bought by the ‘Western’ countries to be supplied to Ukraine, the ‘Western’ countries will just do what Russia often does, that is, lie about it, loudly and in public. What do I mean? I mean that some of the ‘Western’ countries announce that they are supplying weapons to Ukraine that contains parts made/produced in Switzerland even though the actual weapons don’t actually contain parts made/produced in Switzerland. Then Switzerland can kiss it’s so called neutrality bye bye regardless…

Of course Switzerland may not want to sell any new weapons, but then they significantly reduce their own export market…

 

[AM9]

Surely the solution is rather simple. If the Swiss are so serious about being ‘neutral’ just tell them that if they don’t give written permission for weapons bought by the ‘Western’ countries to be supplied to Ukraine, the ‘Western’ countries will just do what Russia often does, that is, lie about it, loudly and in public. What do I mean? I mean that some of the ‘Western’ countries announce that they are supplying weapons to Ukraine that contains parts made/produced in Switzerland even though the actual weapons don’t actually contain parts made/produced in Switzerland. Then Switzerland can kiss it’s so called neutrality bye bye regardless…

Of course Switzerland may not want to sell any new weapons, but then they significantly reduce their own export market…

I think you are assuming that Western governments are more united in their support for Ukraine than they are. Defence procurement is in some ways very reliant on mutual acceptance of rules that ensure that potential adversaries don't undermine your own capability.

 

[yorksrob]

The answer is that NATO should be producing its own armaments and not relying on neutrals.

 

[DustyBin]

Even if there are supply chain difficulties for the Challenger 2, they can still be used by Ukraine to free up other tanks from defending part of the border with Belarus.

And regardless, the U.K. publicly announcing this both sends a clear message to Putin and to the other countries that claim to support Ukraine. So hopefully this will persuade those countries with Leopard 2 MBTs to provide a good number to Ukraine and for Germany to allow this.

I thought similar; they may end up in a deterrent role along the border or guarding a high value target, as opposed to on the front line.

Guardian piece today says "German battle tanks for Ukraine ‘won’t be ready until 2024" See; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/15/german-battle-tanks-for-ukraine-wont-be-ready-until-2024

This rather backs up my fear that the western allies may have tanks in apparent quantity (although nothing like as many as Russia) but a large proportion are not immediately available for active service. Many are stored away awaiting spare parts, often cannibalised from other tanks meaning some will never be deployable.

Wasn't that an issue we discovered at the outset of the last Gulf War?

Rheinmetall could have began recommissioning these tanks nearly a year ago, I remember reading about them a few weeks into the invasion. The German government were reluctant however, unfortunately.

Whilst I’m sure there’ll be missing parts in need of replacement on some of these stored/mothballed tanks, what’s perhaps more interesting is what may need to be removed. Are NATO countries going to provide their latest technology to Ukraine and risk it being captured? I imagine some systems, particularly targeting and communications, are useless without full NATO support anyway?

 

[brad465]

A member of the Wagner group is requesting asylum in Norway:

Ukraine war: Russia's Wagner Group commander requests Norway asylum

Andrey Medvedev says he fled Wagner after witnessing war crimes while serving in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

A former commander with the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group has claimed asylum in Norway after deserting from the mercenary outfit.
Andrey Medvedev, 26, crossed the border into Norway last Friday, where he was detained by border guards.
He is currently being held in the Oslo area where he faces charges of illegal entry to Norway, his lawyer Brynjulf Risnes told the BBC.
Mr Risnes said his client left Wagner after witnessing war crimes in Ukraine.
The Norwegian Border Guard confirmed to the BBC that a Russian man had been detained after crossing the country's 198km (123miles) long border with Russia, but said it could not comment further for "reasons of security and privacy".
Tarjei Sirma-Tellefsen, police chief of staff in the Norwegian region of Finnmark, said a man had been detained by a border patrol and said he had applied for asylum.
But the Russian human rights group Gulagu, who helped Mr Medvedev leave Russia, confirmed his identity. His escape is believed to be the first known instance of one of the group's soldiers defecting to the West.
Gulagu's founder Vladimir Osechkin told the BBC that Mr Medvedev had joined the paramilitary group in July 2022 on a four-month contract, but had deserted after witnessing a host of human rights abuses and war crimes while serving in Ukraine.
He said that Mr Medvedev is a former soldier in the Russian army and that he later served time in prison between 2017 and 2018 before joining the Wagner Group.
He was placed in charge of a Wagner division in Ukraine, where the mercenary group supplied him with around 30-40 troops every week, Mr Osechkin said.
In a video posted by Gulagu to its social media channels, Mr Medvedev said he fled Ukraine in November after being informed that the group intended to extend his contract indefinitely.

The Wagner group essentially is a private army that shouldn't be allowed to exist under Russian law, but the fact they do and largely go about their business without the Russian regime stopping them shows how much of a failed state Russia now is.

 

[jon0844]

He should have tried to find a country that doesn't have buildings with windows...

 

[Killingworth]

A member of the Wagner group is requesting asylum in Norway:

Ukraine war: Russia's Wagner Group commander requests Norway asylum

Andrey Medvedev says he fled Wagner after witnessing war crimes while serving in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Wagner group essentially is a private army that shouldn't be allowed to exist under Russian law, but the fact they do and largely go about their business without the Russian regime stopping them shows how much of a failed state Russia now is.

A commander of a division on a 4 month contract? If that's their level of organisation no wonder he deserted. Lambs to the slaughter.

 

[357]

Supplied with 30-40 soldiers a week shows how heavy the russian losses are

 

[Killingworth]

Supplied with 30-40 soldiers a week shows how heavy the russian losses are

Rather suspect reports if you read all that's appearing. The dates being quoted in different accounts don't tie up or his supposed seniority. For a defector he's getting a lot of early publicity but is what he's saying true?.

 

[yorksrob]

I've been seeing a lot about the deployment of armaments being prevented by re-export clauses. Out of interest, what could the initial exporting country do if the importing country decided to export the weaponry anyway ?

To take the example of Leopard tanks manufactured in Germany, it could presumably refuse to export any more to those countries that re-export. But given it seems to supply most of Europe with them, it would be in a pretty poor position if it refused further exports to all of those countries !

 

[ainsworth74]

I've been seeing a lot about the deployment of armaments being prevented by re-export clauses. Out of interest, what could the initial exporting country do if the importing country decided to export the weaponry anyway ?

To take the example of Leopard tanks manufactured in Germany, it could presumably refuse to export any more to those countries that re-export. But given it seems to supply most of Europe with them, it would be in a pretty poor position if it refused further exports to all of those countries !

It would be, obviously, being potentially unable to purchase things in the future but more immediately it would be things like spare parts, technical support, potentially ammunition or other consumables (like gun barrels). If Germany is the only manufacture of widget X and without widget X your Leopard tanks become glorified pillboxes then you're not going to imperil the supply of widget X. If you don't have a production line of your own making 120mm tank ammunition then if Germany cuts you off you may well be able to source it elsewhere (Leopard's use standard NATO 120mm tank ammunition) but that's still going to be an interruption in your supply, it might cost you more per round (as you'll be, forgive the pun, over a barrel), it might be that other suppliers don't want to do business with you as potentially you've shown yourself to not be trustworthy (in this case considering everyone is hacked off with Germany, this latter point is probably less of an issue!). If Germany stops refurbishing your worn out gun barrels same thing. Might be able to get someone else to do it but...

That's the issue if you ignore a re-export ban. Equipment which you may well still be reliant on the original supplier for critical support may well be rendered useless if as a result of ignoring their prohibition they cut you off.

 

[yorksrob]

It would be, obviously, being potentially unable to purchase things in the future but more immediately it would be things like spare parts, technical support, potentially ammunition or other consumables (like gun barrels). If Germany is the only manufacture of widget X and without widget X your Leopard tanks become glorified pillboxes then you're not going to imperil the supply of widget X. If you don't have a production line of your own making 120mm tank ammunition then if Germany cuts you off you may well be able to source it elsewhere (Leopard's use standard NATO 120mm tank ammunition) but that's still going to be an interruption in your supply, it might cost you more per round (as you'll be, forgive the pun, over a barrel), it might be that other suppliers don't want to do business with you as potentially you've shown yourself to not be trustworthy (in this case considering everyone is hacked off with Germany, this latter point is probably less of an issue!). If Germany stops refurbishing your worn out gun barrels same thing. Might be able to get someone else to do it but...

That's the issue if you ignore a re-export ban. Equipment which you may well still be reliant on the original supplier for critical support may well be rendered useless if as a result of ignoring their prohibition they cut you off.

Very good points, now you mention them, particularly the maintenance/spare parts aspect.

I think there's a bit of a numbers game going on at the moment. With enough countries determined to supply a third party, they could give a quiet ultimatum behind the scenes - "we want your visible consent, but if we don't have it by "x" we'll do it anyway".

 

[DustyBin]

Very good points, now you mention them, particularly the maintenance/spare parts aspect.

I think there's a bit of a numbers game going on at the moment. With enough countries determined to supply a third party, they could give a quiet ultimatum behind the scenes - "we want your visible consent, but if we don't have it by "x" we'll do it anyway".

Poland is in the process of replacing their Leopard 2s with Abrams and K2s, so they may be less concerned with future spares supplies etc. As @ainsworth74 has alluded to however, ongoing support in terms of spares, maintenance and ammunition will be a concern to Ukraine, as these tanks will be heading straight into a warzone.

 

[yorksrob]

Poland is in the process of replacing their Leopard 2s with Abrams and K2s, so they may be less concerned with future spares supplies etc. As @ainsworth74 has alluded to however, ongoing support in terms of spares, maintenance and ammunition will be a concern to Ukraine, as these tanks will be heading straight into a warzone.

Indeed. I wonder how quickly reverse engineering and 3d printing could be brought to bear on the issue.

 

[brad465]

I'm pleased the US are sending Bradley Fighting vehicles, but I can't quite think why

 

[yorksrob]

Very good points, now you mention them, particularly the maintenance/spare parts aspect.

I think there's a bit of a numbers game going on at the moment. With enough countries determined to supply a third party, they could give a quiet ultimatum behind the scenes - "we want your visible consent, but if we don't have it by "x" we'll do it anyway".

The more Germany dithers, the more the West looks divided to the Kremlin.

Germany should be given 24 hours to consent to re-export, then it should be done regardless.

 

[brad465]

I don't get why Germany are dithering on this: a year ago I could because they still depended a lot on Russian gas, but now they're claiming to be free of it, and LNG terminals have been setup there much sooner than expected. Combined with the fact that the NS1 pipe is both not being supplied and got a hole in it, what to Germany have to lose?

 

[Killingworth]

Poland is in the process of replacing their Leopard 2s with Abrams and K2s, so they may be less concerned with future spares supplies etc. As @ainsworth74 has alluded to however, ongoing support in terms of spares, maintenance and ammunition will be a concern to Ukraine, as these tanks will be heading straight into a warzone.

Ukraine is now discovering that more equipment and munitions aren't coming from a bottomless and cost free pit. NATO countries are looking at how much of what they have is actually serviceable, or can be practically deployed and still have enough left for their own defence.

 

[yorksrob]

Ukraine is now discovering that more equipment and munitions aren't coming from a bottomless and cost free pit. NATO countries are looking at how much of what they have is actually serviceable, or can be practically deployed and still have enough left for their own defence.

Yet if NATO don't deploy their kit now, they will be weakened by a massively emboldened Russia.

A blind eye has been turned to Russia over the last ten years in the hope that it would somehow "go away" as a problem. It hasn't.

 

[takno]

I don't get why Germany are dithering on this: a year ago I could because they still depended a lot on Russian gas, but now they're claiming to be free of it, and LNG terminals have been setup there much sooner than expected. Combined with the fact that the NS1 pipe is both not being supplied and got a hole in it, what to Germany have to lose?

There's understandably quite a lot of anti-(any)-war sentiment in Germany, and it's pretty focused in supporters of the two parties in government. I suspect they are quite keen to not be having arguments with their international partners, or making the lunatic Polish government look like they might have a point about something, but they also need to consider the domestic reaction.

 

[Cloud Strife]

or making the lunatic Polish government look like they might have a point about something

From my perspective in Poland, my reading of the matter is that these tanks are not in serviceable condition. The Bundeswehr is well known to have been run down rather dramatically in the last 20 years or so, and while the SPD is suggesting that their members are against it, I suspect the real reason is that no-one wants to admit publicly that these tanks aren't fit for use.

Having said that, it is simply inexcusable on the part of Germany not to authorise the transfer of tanks from other countries. I like Germany as a country, but this is really quite silly.

NATO countries are looking at how much of what they have is actually serviceable, or can be practically deployed and still have enough left for their own defence.

There is a very real point here: NATO's production abilities are seriously questionable right now. Everyone assumed that NATO could flick a switch and mass production would begin, but now it's becoming painfully clear that NATO has neglected such capabilities, or perhaps never even had them.

 

[Broucek]

We've been focusing on the wrong ESG for too long. Energy-Security and Guns are more fundamental in the hierarchy of needs...

 

[Annetts key]

There's understandably quite a lot of anti-(any)-war sentiment in Germany, and it's pretty focused in supporters of the two parties in government. I suspect they are quite keen to not be having arguments with their international partners, or making the lunatic Polish government look like they might have a point about something, but they also need to consider the domestic reaction.

My understanding is that in Germany the Green Party and the FDP liberal party are in favour of Ukraine getting Leopard MBTs (main battle tanks). It’s the SPD that are reluctant.

From my perspective in Poland, my reading of the matter is that these tanks are not in serviceable condition. The Bundeswehr is well known to have been run down rather dramatically in the last 20 years or so, and while the SPD is suggesting that their members are against it, I suspect the real reason is that no-one wants to admit publicly that these tanks aren't fit for use.

But what’s amazing is that Russia invaded over ten months ago, and apparently Germany has not done enough to bring any significant number of these to an operational state.

What would have happened if Russia had attacked one or more NATO countries?

How many European governments have been living in cloud cuckoo land?

Having said that, it is simply inexcusable on the part of Germany not to authorise the transfer of tanks from other countries. I like Germany as a country, but this is really quite silly.

I agree!

There is a very real point here: NATO's production abilities are seriously questionable right now. Everyone assumed that NATO could flick a switch and mass production would begin, but now it's becoming painfully clear that NATO has neglected such capabilities, or perhaps never even had them.

Yes, it’s rather worrying. You would have thought that by now many military equipment companies would have been able to significantly increase production.

 

[Killingworth]

Could iit be that both Russia and NATO are holding their best kit back for when a direct confrontation might begin?

 

[Annetts key]

Could iit be that both Russia and NATO are holding their best kit back for when a direct confrontation might begin?

On the NATO / European side, definitely. A lot of equipment that has been given to Ukraine are items that have already been, or soon will be taken out of service. Or which are due to be upgraded or replaced in the coming years.

And some is equipment that was taken out of service due to money being allocated to other projects or areas.

On the Russian side, it’s hard to tell. But there, they do appear to be having issues with replacing damaged, destroyed or lost (captured by Ukraine) equipment, so are having to use whatever they can find to send to the “front”.

But their latest equipment, a lot of that won’t leave Russia.

 

[brad465]

There's understandably quite a lot of anti-(any)-war sentiment in Germany, and it's pretty focused in supporters of the two parties in government. I suspect they are quite keen to not be having arguments with their international partners, or making the lunatic Polish government look like they might have a point about something, but they also need to consider the domestic reaction.

I don't know what the pro vs anti-war balance is in Germany, but what might be promising is there were protests earlier demanding the tanks get sent by Germany, and as we're going into the weekend they could get larger. How representative the protestors will be I don't know, but it's not something you'd expect from a supposedly largely anti-war country.

 

[Monty]

I don't get why Germany are dithering on this: a year ago I could because they still depended a lot on Russian gas, but now they're claiming to be free of it, and LNG terminals have been setup there much sooner than expected. Combined with the fact that the NS1 pipe is both not being supplied and got a hole in it, what to Germany have to lose?

I think there are many in the German government who harbour this fantasy that after the war is over they can go back and cosey up to Russia for cheap gas and oil again so don't want to upset Putin too much. Doesn't help that half the Bundestag seem to be on the Russian payroll or have other connections. Even the new German defence minister has connections to Moscow!