Britain's bus industry in 50 years time

[PTR 444]

What do people expect the state of Britain's local bus operations will be like in 50 years time?

• Assuming passenger figures remain on the same downward trajectory as now, will we end up with a nationalised/franchised/regulated system?
• Are we likely to see a "one operator per county/city" scenario throughout the UK with additional operators pulling out, as we are seeing now in Bournemouth and Southampton?
• Will the trend towards consolidating buses into high-frequency corridors continue, at the expense of running less frequent services?
• Will the bus of 2073 look completely unrecognisable from the bus of 2023?
• Will we finally have realised the importance of running public transport as a whole, with buses seen as part of an integrated public transport system rather than an isolated system?
• Could we see a wider rollout of bus priority infrastructure (bus lanes, priority signals, guided busways etc.) and faster boarding measures (off-bus ticketing, flat fares, conductors etc.) as an attempt to revolutionise the public perception of the bus?
• Could ridership levels potentially stabilise or even rise?
• Or will local buses simply become extinct outside of major cities and replaced with Uber?

Interested to hear people's thoughts, including wild predictions.

 

[peterblue]

I can certainly see the bus industry being nationalised and/or franchised within the next 50 years.

 

[RT4038]

What do people expect the state of Britain's local bus operations will be like in 50 years time?

• Assuming passenger figures remain on the same downward trajectory as now, will we end up with a nationalised/franchised/regulated system?
• Are we likely to see a "one operator per county/city" scenario throughout the UK with additional operators pulling out, as we are seeing now in Bournemouth and Southampton?
• Will the trend towards consolidating buses into high-frequency corridors continue, at the expense of running less frequent services?
• Will the bus of 2073 look completely unrecognisable from the bus of 2023?
• Will we finally have realised the importance of running public transport as a whole, with buses seen as part of an integrated public transport system rather than an isolated system?
• Could we see a wider rollout of bus priority infrastructure (bus lanes, priority signals, guided busways etc.) and faster boarding measures (off-bus ticketing, flat fares, conductors etc.) as an attempt to revolutionise the public perception of the bus?
• Could ridership levels potentially stabilise or even rise?
• Or will local buses simply become extinct outside of major cities and replaced with Uber?

Interested to hear people's thoughts, including wild predictions.

• We may well get a nationalised/franchised/regulated system, but there will be no money to improve services. For political and economic reasons the services will be worse than now, at least initially.
• Yes, there will probably be consolidations of operators too.
• Not if nationalised/franchised/regulated system comes about.
• Yes. outside of cities they will be minibuses of some kind. Or will it just be automated vehicles/pods?
• Probably not. Or will we have realised that public transport is just not what people want, rather like launderettes?
• Unlikely. They are not popular with private vehicle owners/users, who are the majority voters.
• Difficult to see that from present perspective. 50 years is a long time to say it won't happen though, there are so many unknown factors.
• Possibly. But will there be a supply of cheap labour for Uber?

 

[slowroad]

While autonomous vehicles are taking longer to perfect than optimists assumed, surely the challenges will be cracked in the next decade or two. This will wipe out buses in most (all?) places as people will choose a door to door service.

 

[stuu]

While autonomous vehicles are taking longer to perfect than optimists assumed, surely the challenges will be cracked in the next decade or two. This will wipe out buses in most (all?) places as people will choose a door to door service.

An autonomous vehicle doing a fixed route is a far simpler problem to solve than something that can go anywhere by itself, so it is possible that buses would be automated before private vehicles, and therefore become much cheaper to run (in theory!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

An autonomous vehicle doing a fixed route is a far simpler problem to solve than something that can go anywhere by itself, so it is possible that buses would be automated before private vehicles, and therefore become much cheaper to run (in theory!)

Potentially so. And don't forget that an automated pod is still a vehicle with one person in it and still has the same congestion and environmental impact. It's basically an automated taxi, and the implications to users and the environment are basically the same as if everyone gave up buses and took Ubers instead, but without creating the jobs.

I can see that sort of thing working for rural demand responsive services, but that we would still need buses, but perhaps they'd be automated.

 

[GusB]

50 years?! It's difficult enough to predict how things will look in 5 years.

Won't we all be getting about with our personal jet packs, as we were promised er.. 70 years ago?!

 

[TheManOnThe172]

I predict that autonomous vehicles will be operated by one or two vast corporations (because of the returns to scale) - and that those corporations have enough clout to insist that road pricing (or other rationing) ensures that their expensive assets don't sit unproductive in congestion.

Dynamic pricing will ensure that the rich will enjoy a non-stop journey to arrive at the time of their choice, with the poor left to travel at other times when demand for the vehicles (and road space) is low. How will that work? Easy - towns and cities will have plenty of ex-car-park space in which to build rudimentary shelters in which the less wealthy can sit and wait between being dropped off by their off-peak trip in an autonomous vehicle and the start of their working day.

 

[WAB]

I predict that as the mileage of commercial routes decreases and the money available for subsidised services decreases, it will become difficult to find sufficient operators to cover the remaining subsidised work. Buses will also become increasingly focused on urban areas, with only key rural towns continuing to be served. The malaise of Arriva, First and Stagecoach will ultimately ensure their downfall, with new groups rising in prominence to replace them. The smallest operators running on a low-cost basis will survive, but larger independents may be more vulnerable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think urban areas will be increasingly regulated, but despite the potential for full integration in this context we will continue running separate, duplicated bus routes to rail routes because the UK just doesn't "get" integration and never did.

I predict we will still have single door operation and bunching due to slow fare collection. Even when paying with your iris or facial scan, you'll still have to have a 10 second chat with the driver (or a natural language computer of some kind if there isn't a driver) about where you're going. Meanwhile TfL will have implemented automatic fare payment on this sort of basis - just board and you'll be charged based on facial or iris recognition, and much of Europe will have realised Luxembourg style benefits of totally free urban public transport funded through taxation so will avoid all these issues.

 

[slowroad]

Potentially so. And don't forget that an automated pod is still a vehicle with one person in it and still has the same congestion and environmental impact. It's basically an automated taxi, and the implications to users and the environment are basically the same as if everyone gave up buses and took Ubers instead, but without creating the jobs.

I can see that sort of thing working for rural demand responsive services, but that we would still need buses, but perhaps they'd

Potentially so. And don't forget that an automated pod is still a vehicle with one person in it and still has the same congestion and environmental impact. It's basically an automated taxi, and the implications to users and the environment are basically the same as if everyone gave up buses and took Ubers instead, but without creating the jobs.

I can see that sort of thing working for rural demand responsive services, but that we would still need buses, but perhaps they'd be automated.

Remember most people live in neither rural areas nor big cities. I agree there may be a residual role for automated buses in the latter in order to mitigate congestion. But they’ll be gone in most places. And any environmental issues with alternatives are resolvable.

 

[duncombec]

Nice thread borrowed from the rail side of the forum

It's perhaps interesting to look at 50 years ago and see what's changed - despite the upheavals, bus services are till largely the same. They may not have conductors any more, they've gone through phases of ownership, marginal services have been dropped rather than providing a service to every lamppost at the expense of frequency where it matters... but essentially, it's still there. In a way, just like the railways have been, and buses have been since the days of the horsebus.

I'd be more inclined to think it will be outside pressures not on the bus industry itself, but on travel in general that will have the biggest effect. Perhaps if those in the "green lobby" realise that a carrot is needed to get people onto public transport, rather than just a stick to get them out of their cars, and that unpopular decisions will need to be taken over funding for transport and roads, we could see popularity change that way.

It doesn't need to be a wholesale "chuck it out and rebuild it in the way they do somewhere else", but a major reallocation of priorities, and perhaps adaptations to the cost/benefit ratios, may start to make people realise that actually, public transport isn't that bad after all.

I'd also like to claim the award for being the first person on the thread to mention Germany, where "split usage" already seems quite common - be that car for town/train for long distance or vice-versa. If we could start to persuade people that the car is for going to the out of town retail park, but for meeting friends in town for a coffee and the occasional bit of shopping the bus is perfectly acceptable, we'd be getting somewhere.

 

[david1212]

I do wonder if even within urban areas autonomous pods / vehicles will ever be large scale approved. They have to cope with all but the most severe weather in all light conditions from low sun directly ahead to darkness, high contrast between midday summer sun and dark shadows. Added in are all the situations that can suddenly appear in front from small children, cats, dogs, something fallen off the back of a lorry etc to refuse vehicles collecting and one lane blocked, the road totally blocked or police directing traffic. Traffic lights including temporary could be communicated but that has to be absolutely 100% reliable. Less common now are roadworks controlled by stop-go boards. What about negotiating housing estate traffic calming chicanes with traffic priority?
I just can not see the required insurance being offered at a viable price.

With ever increasing environment and energy supply pressure despite the move from ICE to electric cars the target will continue to be maximising urban travel by public transport. There may be more trams / very light rail but buses will still be dominant.

The big difference is that the majority of buses will no longer be powered by diesel. Battery electric is the obvious source but if the production can be green hydrogen could be dominant. Diesel might remain in very rural areas presuming there is any service at all.

The last statement to me is the hardest to predict. The trend of if you are not self sufficient for transport moving to an urban area could change with the cost and pressure on housing. Add in the combined running and capital cost of your own vehicle(s) plus a higher proportion of older people who can no longer legally drive and rural buses could be more viable than now.

 

[RT4038]

I think urban areas will be increasingly regulated, but despite the potential for full integration in this context we will continue running separate, duplicated bus routes to rail routes because the UK just doesn't "get" integration and never did.

But in another thread, the conclusion (including your good self) was that there are few places where this is actually practicable and affordable! It is hardly surprising that the few edge cases are actually taken up, when such potential does not exist in most of the country. Even in the edge cases, reliability issues are likely to impinge on their acceptance, [without other politically unpopular measures].

 

[Bletchleyite]

But in another thread, the conclusion (including your good self) was that there are few places where this is actually practicable and affordable! It is hardly surprising that the few edge cases are actually taken up, when such potential does not exist in most of the country. Even in the edge cases, reliability issues are likely to impinge on their acceptance, [without other politically unpopular measures].

Though to be fair the vast amount of the population does actually live in that smallish number of big cities where it is possible.

 

[johncrossley]

where "split usage" already seems quite common - be that car for town/train for long distance or vice-versa. If we could start to persuade people that the car is for going to the out of town retail park, but for meeting friends in town for a coffee and the occasional bit of shopping the bus is perfectly acceptable, we'd be getting somewhere.

There are various places in the world that are regularly mentioned on forums, including here, which enjoy good usage levels. But pretty much everywhere in the developed world has high car ownership so it is clear that in places that have high public transport usage they also use cars from time to time. There seems to be an assumption on here that once you get a car you don't use buses.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are various places in the world that are regularly mentioned on forums, including here, which enjoy good usage levels. But pretty much everywhere in the developed world has high car ownership so it is clear that in places that have high public transport usage they also use cars from time to time. There seems to be an assumption on here that once you get a car you don't use buses.

I think that's a fair assumption in the UK with the possible exception of single figures of largest cities where driving is utterly grim (i.e. London, Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh and *possibly* Liverpool and Leeds), plus a couple of very anti-car smaller places like Oxford. But that's because buses in the UK are not, as a whole, a pleasant experience to use, and to boot are much slower than the car due to the lack of priority and due to often esoteric routes. Many bus journeys in Milton Keynes, for instance, are slower than cycling, let alone the car.

The only places you tend to find this as an exception outside of those large cities are where specific effort is put into the quality of the bus operation and its attractiveness to car drivers, e.g. Transdev Yorkshire and Lothian, but the big operators are largely way below par in this regard.

 

[johncrossley]

I think that's a fair assumption in the UK with the possible exception of single figures of largest cities where driving is utterly grim (i.e. London, Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh and *possibly* Liverpool and Leeds), plus a couple of very anti-car smaller places like Oxford. But that's because buses in the UK are not, as a whole, a pleasant experience to use, and to boot are much slower than the car due to the lack of priority and due to often esoteric routes. Many bus journeys in Milton Keynes, for instance, are slower than cycling, let alone the car.

Of course, that much is evident. My point is that people on this and other British based forums assume that the battle is to stop people buying cars. They don't realise that in some cities in some countries people leave the car at home because the public transport offering is attractive.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Of course, that much is evident. My point is that people on this and other British based forums assume that the battle is to stop people buying cars. They don't realise that in some cities in some countries people leave the car at home because the public transport offering is attractive.

Yes, agreed. I think this may be because of the largeish number of younger people on this sort of Forum who don't yet own a car. Once one has been bought for the first time, it's unusual for people to then go without again, though it's not completely unknown to "downsize" a family to one car, so maybe there is something in making bus travel attractive enough to encourage that.

Unfortunately there's only one Alex Hornby, and he'll retire at some point, so will someone else take on that mantle of quality so we still see it in 50 years' time?

 

[Intercity110]

Alexander-Seimens (an Alstom company) will be announcing the failure of the Enviro 1200 to drag the ALX400 and Dennis Darts, kicking and screaming, off our streets. In all seriousness though, buses will either be a one company monopoly, or nationalized.

 

[RT4038]

Of course, that much is evident. My point is that people on this and other British based forums assume that the battle is to stop people buying cars. They don't realise that in some cities in some countries people leave the car at home because the public transport offering is attractive.

As indeed there are some cities in this country too. Even in those cities in some (other) countries, it is not just the case that public transport is attractive per se - private car use is unattractive in comparison (usually difficult or unattractive parking and/or limited access and/or congestion). However the unattractiveness of private car use is mitigated in many countries by out of town shopping centres, business parks etc.

 

[miklcct]

There are various places in the world that are regularly mentioned on forums, including here, which enjoy good usage levels. But pretty much everywhere in the developed world has high car ownership so it is clear that in places that have high public transport usage they also use cars from time to time. There seems to be an assumption on here that once you get a car you don't use buses.

The assumption is always true when both of the following are true:

1. The time taken by car is less than the time taken by bus.
2. The marginal cost of using the car is less than the bus fare.

Apart from very limited circumstances, for example, bus lane on motorways where express buses bypass congestion, point 1 is always true.

There are a lot of other places in the world where point 2 is false, but unfortunately, not the UK outside London.

 

[ElBoiii]

Given the Bus Services Act 2017 allowing franchising we're definitely gonna start moving back towards a franchised or possibly even nationalised system in the near future. However, it'll take a lot of work to get in the right direction... will it ever work at the current rate?

As for tech, there's certainly been a rise in stuff like announcements and USB sockets on board buses - could that be a requirement for all bus services across the UK at some point?

 

[slowroad]

This is a few years old now, but shows bus modal share in UK higher than France or Germany.

Passenger transport modal split

www.eea.europa.eu

 

[johncrossley]

This is a few years old now, but shows bus modal share in UK higher than France or Germany.

Passenger transport modal split

www.eea.europa.eu

It only shows car, train and bus. What about tram and light rail? It excludes cycling and walking. In the Netherlands and in much of northern Germany, bus use is largely replaced by cycling. The UK bus proportion is bound to be heavily weighted by London which probably has the highest bus usage per capita of any city in Europe. France is not particularly well known for urban public transport except for the Paris Metro.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Given the Bus Services Act 2017 allowing franchising we're definitely gonna start moving back towards a franchised or possibly even nationalised system in the near future. However, it'll take a lot of work to get in the right direction... will it ever work at the current rate?

As for tech, there's certainly been a rise in stuff like announcements and USB sockets on board buses - could that be a requirement for all bus services across the UK at some point?

I don't know about USB sockets, as battery tech improves they'll be less useful, just as wifi is less useful now good data contracts are more affordable. But I'd not be surprised to see mandatory audio visual passenger information, as the benefit for both people unfamiliar with a route and those with disabilities is massive. I'd expect that far sooner than 50 years - perhaps 10 to 20 - and even sooner on franchised urban operations.

 

[slowroad]

It only shows car, train and bus. What about tram and light rail? It excludes cycling and walking. In the Netherlands and in much of northern Germany, bus use is largely replaced by cycling. The UK bus proportion is bound to be heavily weighted by London which probably has the highest bus usage per capita of any city in Europe. France is not particularly well known for urban public transport except for the Paris Metro.

I think tram is in with bus and light rail with rail. but can’t find the definitions to confirm. However, figure 4 in this is a more recent chart with tram and light rail broken out separately. It does not change the big picture:

EUR-Lex - 52021DC0005 - EN - EUR-Lex

eur-lex.europa.eu

Cycling might change things a bit, but it’s very difficult to get internationally comparable figures. Both cycling and walking generally account for only a very small share of distance travelled (though lots of trips) and hence small modal share.

 

[johncrossley]

Cycling might change things a bit, but it’s very difficult to get internationally comparable figures. Both cycling and walking generally account for only a very small share of distance travelled (though lots of trips) and hence small modal share.

Mode share can be stated as a proportion of trips or as a proportion of distance travelled. Obviously cars and to a lesser extent train are by and large the only realistic options for medium to long distance travel, although both bikes and buses can be relevant as part of a long trip by train. Therefore it is more meaningful to look at shorter trips in isolation, roughly up to 3 miles/5 km in length, where both buses and cycling occupy much the same market and are viable alternatives to short car journeys. When looking at shorter trips, there isn't much difference between looking at proportion of trips and proportion of distance travelled. In the Netherlands, for example, cycling makes up about a quarter to a third of shorter trips and relatively few people there use buses for those kinds of trips.

 

[slowroad]

Mode share can be stated as a proportion of trips or as a proportion of distance travelled. Obviously cars and to a lesser extent train are by and large the only realistic options for medium to long distance travel, although both bikes and buses can be relevant as part of a long trip by train. Therefore it is more meaningful to look at shorter trips in isolation, roughly up to 3 miles/5 km in length, where both buses and cycling occupy much the same market and are viable alternatives to short car journeys. When looking at shorter trips, there isn't much difference between looking at proportion of trips and proportion of distance travelled. In the Netherlands, for example, cycling makes up about a quarter to a third of shorter trips and relatively few people there use buses for those kinds of trips.

Yes - very fair point. Though I assume to some extent cycling also subs for walking. What is also interesting to me is how high modal share for car is in the Netherlands. Consistent with your point, lots of cycling (and a good rail system) does not do much to reduce car use.

 

[johncrossley]

Yes - very fair point. Though I assume to some extent cycling also subs for walking. What is also interesting to me is how high modal share for car is in the Netherlands. Consistent with your point, lots of cycling (and a good rail system) does not do much to reduce car use.

Precisely because of the exclusion of cycling from the statistics, that is why the car modal share looks so high for the Netherlands. If cycling was in there, the Netherlands would have one of the lowest car modal shares, even by distance.