National Grid warns of possible blackouts

[AM9]

maybe "Britain faces potential for power cuts"

Bear in mind that the headline, when misinterpreted, would still be failsafe. So, anybody complaining after the event, i.e. when the likelihood of severe winter weather is over, with the benefit of hindsight, would still be in a far better position than:

somebody who dismissed the possibility and was caught seriously unprepared - There are plenty of over-optimists around who put their fingers in their ears and shut their eyes because they think if they don't know something then it won't hurt them!​

or​

somebody who didn't notice the article because it had an inconspicuous headline​

who would say "well nobody told me!"

 

[GusB]

Bear in mind that the headline, when misinterpreted, would still be failsafe. So, anybody complaining after the event, i.e. when the likelihood of severe winter weather is over, with the benefit of hindsight, would still be in a far better position than:
somebody who dismissed the possibility and was caught seriously unprepared - There are plenty of over-optimists around who put their fingers in their ears and shut their eyes because they think if they don't know something then it won't hurt them!
or
somebody who didn't notice the article because it had an inconspicuous headline
who would say "well nobody told me!"

I agree with this completely and I'm failing to understand why we need to go round in circles with this argument about whether or not the media was scaremongering.

If there is potential for there to be rolling blackouts, I'd like to know about it in advance. This allows me to locate torches, batteries, candles, flasks, blankets and anything else I might need to get through a power cut, no matter how short. I'd rather not be fumbling around in the dark trying to find these things if it was to happen without warning.

In the event that there are no scheduled power cuts and I don't need any of the things I've gathered, there's no harm done. All the items I've listed are things I have in the house anyway, so I haven't spent any money on preparation. If anything there's a positive benefit in that I would probably have tidied up the cupboards and de-cluttered in the process!

 

[Annetts key]

In the real world, the first power cut is unlikely to be scheduled…
Any a well prepared person should already have the items listed in the post above ready.

 

[cjmillsnun]

The fact is the potential exists for power cuts at anytime i myself have suffered four significant outages one requiring a temporary generator for a week whilst they tracked down the fault so people need to be prepared.

True, but the power cuts you refer to are down to faults in the very local area (down to a single transformer normally) or are as a result of cables being damaged. The spun up hype was that a lack of gas could cause a national issue. Considering the ships full of LNG that have been off the coast of Europe, this was not likely to happen. We’ve not even had a sniff of getting near low pressures on the Gas National Transmission System despite exporting heavily to the continent.

 

[najaB]

The spun up hype was that a lack of gas could cause a national issue. Considering the ships full of LNG that have been off the coast of Europe, this was not likely to happen.

Perhaps you missed the facts reported in the news recently that this has been one of the warmest winters on record in Europe and we have hit multiple record peaks for both instantaneous and cumulative generation from wind.

Had there been cold, still days as often happens in winter...

 

[GusB]

Perhaps you missed the facts reported in the news recently that this has been one of the warmest winters on record in Europe and we have hit multiple record peaks for both instantaneous and cumulative generation from wind.

Had there been cold, still days as often happens in winter...

And the fact the winter is by no means over yet!

 

[Bald Rick]

Perhaps you missed the facts reported in the news recently that this has been one of the warmest winters on record in Europe and we have hit multiple record peaks for both instantaneous and cumulative generation from wind.

Had there been cold, still days as often happens in winter...

like now, sort of.

It’s cold, and current demand is 46GW. It’s also windy, with 15GW of wind power being generated. Gas is generating 19GW, coal and bio and nuclear have about 2GW spare between them. It’s also very cold in France - their demand is 76GW, and they don’t have much wind tonight so they have all working nukes on line, gas, bio, hydro, pumped storage all maxed out, and they are taking 0.5GW off us (rather than us taking 3.5 from them).

without the wind tonight we’d certainly be in demand reduction territory.

 

[DelayRepay]

Just had an email from the Loop app, they are running another Turn Down and Save hour from 9am tomorrow. I think this is the first one they've done during the daytime.

We had a power cut tonight, some problem with the local infrastructure. Luckily I was at work so I stayed there until someone told me the power was back on. But some of the village are still without power. I expect anyone who planned for blackouts is grateful, even if this blackout wasn't actually a demand reduction measure.

 

[Jammy Dodger]

It’s cold, and current demand is 46GW. It’s also windy, with 15GW of wind power being generated. Gas is generating 19GW, coal and bio and nuclear have about 2GW spare between them. It’s also very cold in France - their demand is 76GW, and they don’t have much wind tonight so they have all working nukes on line, gas, bio, hydro, pumped storage all maxed out, and they are taking 0.5GW off us (rather than us taking 3.5 from them).

without the wind tonight we’d certainly be in demand reduction territory.

All slowly pointing in the right direction (i.e. no gas usage at all), which I do understand will take a fair amount of time to achieve.

Sky came out with this today, which will also be seen as good news: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-renew...-since-september-new-analysis-claims-12789257

UK renewables generate more power than gas since September, new analysis claims​

The analysis of domestic renewable power counters claims that the transition to clean power in order to meet climate targets is responsible for current energy security problems.

Here's a thought - why don't we make a bunch of new reservoirs with hydroelectric dams, allows us to fix our power and water security issues at the same time!

 

[Bald Rick]

Here's a thought - why don't we make a bunch of new reservoirs with hydroelectric dams, allows us to fix our power and water security issues at the same time!

Because we don’t have the right topography!

 

[najaB]

Because we don’t have the right topography!

Nothing that can't be fixed by suitable application of large amounts of explosives.

 

[Annetts key]

Because we don’t have the right topography!

That’s only because we are currently ignoring that very big bit of water that completely surrounds this country…
Where is the investment in power generation from the movement of the tide? For the vast majority of days in the year there are two high tides, regardless of the weather.

I don’t know what our maximum CCGT capacity is, but at 19GW, that’s still below the figure that was generated in December last year at its peak, which was about 25GW.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Jan 2023 ==

Oh, and if there is a lack of natural wind, maybe we should build wind turbines in cities, then promote people eating curry…

 

[Dai Corner]

That’s only because we are currently ignoring that very big bit of water that completely surrounds this country…
Where is the investment in power generation from the movement of the tide? For the vast majority of days in the year there are two high tides, regardless of the weather.

I don’t know what our maximum CCGT capacity is, but at 19GW, that’s still below the figure that was generated in December last year at its peak, which was about 25GW.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Jan 2023 ==

Oh, and if there is a lack of natural wind, maybe we should build wind turbines in cities, then promote people eating curry…

I think one problem is that peak tidal generation is nearly always at a different time to peak demand?

 

[Jammy Dodger]

That’s only because we are currently ignoring that very big bit of water that completely surrounds this country…
Where is the investment in power generation from the movement of the tide? For the vast majority of days in the year there are two high tides, regardless of the weather.

I'm still surprised that we don't use this more to our advantage - IIRC we have the two biggest tidal ranges in the world (Severn/Bristol Channel, and Solent), that could possibly give us 1GW of generating capacity if done right. Combine that with batteries and pumped storage to cover this transient energy generation, and bingo - goodbye coal!

 

[Annetts key]

I think one problem is that peak tidal generation is nearly always at a different time to peak demand?

But some tidal generation technologies generate power for much of the time, it’s only during the relatively short period of time when the tide is turning that no power is produced. Hydroelectric systems or flywheel, or other short term systems could be developed/built/used to help cover for some of this predictable loss of generation capacity.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Jan 2023 ==

I'm still surprised that we don't use this more to our advantage - IIRC we have the two biggest tidal ranges in the world (Severn/Bristol Channel, and Solent).

The Bristol Channel has the second highest tidal range in the world.

 

[Bald Rick]

That’s only because we are currently ignoring that very big bit of water that completely surrounds this country…
Where is the investment in power generation from the movement of the tide? For the vast majority of days in the year there are two high tides, regardless of the weather.

As I and many others have said on this thread and others, whilst Tidal is predictable, it has three rather major problems:

1) it is intermittent, and can’t generate constantly from any one site
2) it’s peak power output varies round the clock, and therefore it will generate power when you don’t need it (lie wind farms), and therefore some form of energy storage is still required to deal with that.
3) the big one - it’s flippin’ expensive. At least twice the cost per MWh compared to Nuclear, and 6-7 times that of offshore wind.

Hence why there is no chase for tidal power on any scale anywhere in the world. But there is large scale investment in wind, solar, and strengthening long distance power networks. (It’s always windy and sunny somewhere)

I don’t know what our maximum CCGT capacity is, but at 19GW, that’s still below the figure that was generated in December last year at its peak, which was about 25GW.

In theory about 28GW, but there is always some off line for one reason or another. The peak of gas generation ever was in January 2019 at 27GW, but two power stations totalling 1.6GW have been mothballed since then, so 25-26GW is about the limit.

 

[AM9]

As I and many others have said on this thread and others, whilst Tidal is predictable, it has three rather major problems:

1) it is intermittent, and can’t generate constantly from any one site
2) it’s peak power output varies round the clock, and therefore it will generate power when you don’t need it (lie wind farms), and therefore some form of energy storage is still required to deal with that.
3) the big one - it’s flippin’ expensive. At least twice the cost per MWh compared to Nuclear, and 6-7 times that of offshore wind.

Apart from the cost of tidal power generation (which at the moment is the killer), tide times around the UK are unusual in that they are spread around the 12 hour 50 minute cycle fairly evenly. If they were developed at locations that were convenient to store high water (either just 'arrested' tides or pumped storage), there could be a healthy contribution to the base load. One thing though, large scale tidal storage (globally) would very very slightly slow down the earth's rate of rotation.*

* Much slower than we need to be concerned about, (before somebody accuses me of scaremongering).

 

[Annetts key]

As I and many others have said on this thread and others, whilst Tidal is predictable, it has three rather major problems:

1) it is intermittent, and can’t generate constantly from any one site
2) it’s peak power output varies round the clock, and therefore it will generate power when you don’t need it (lie wind farms), and therefore some form of energy storage is still required to deal with that.
3) the big one - it’s flippin’ expensive. At least twice the cost per MWh compared to Nuclear, and 6-7 times that of offshore wind.

Solar and wind also have drawbacks (as does coal, oil, gas, nuclear). In fact, every single electricity source has its own set of drawbacks. Some more significant than others. For example, nuclear sites need access to a suitable source of water for cooling. And it’s risky to locate them in areas that may be subjected to bad storms.

Solar and wind are intermittent and can’t be guaranteed to provide constant power from any one site.

There are a number of different technologies of tidal systems that have potential. No, they are not perfect, and yes, at the moment, for the amount of power generated, they are rather costly. But that’s not unusual for small scale development systems, or potential first generation systems. Wind and solar had similar problems of being expensive initially.

And if no one tries to develop tidal systems further, we may never know for certain what they can do for us.

And as I said in post #375, energy storage systems would need to be developed alongside our renewable systems.

But, to nick a tag line from a certain supermarket, every little helps

 

[Bald Rick]

And if no one tries to develop tidal systems further, we may never know for certain what they can do for us.

I suppose my point is that people have been trying with Tidal for decades, and never been remotely successful.

The answer is going to be a smallish baseload of nuclear (about twice what we have now), Wind, solar, batteries, and more interconnectors. It will take 20-30 years, but we’ll get there.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Perhaps you missed the facts reported in the news recently that this has been one of the warmest winters on record in Europe and we have hit multiple record peaks for both instantaneous and cumulative generation from wind.

Had there been cold, still days as often happens in winter...

I work in the industry. Please don’t lecture me.

 

[HSTEd]

3) the big one - it’s flippin’ expensive. At least twice the cost per MWh compared to Nuclear, and 6-7 times that of offshore wind.

Such comparisons are entirely dependent on real interest rates on the capital however!

For most of the last decade, had the state built such a plant it would have been comically cheap because the low interest rates and very very very long investment life would have caused the bulk of the real capital cost to dissapear into the aether!

[Potentially under 1p/kWh]

And diurnal load cycling like that from Tidal is far easier to manage than the longer term variations with wind (and solar has no chance), especially with modern dual generation concepts that would generate for a significant portion of the entire day.

If you go out to Ilfracombe-Gower, modern projections are for an average power approaching 10GW, which would be a significant fraction of our entire energy requirement in our decarbonised world.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2023 ==

The answer is going to be a smallish baseload of nuclear (about twice what we have now), Wind, solar, batteries, and more interconnectors. It will take 20-30 years, but we’ll get there.

To make that system work you will either have to many many more connectors than we have now. Or truly comical quantities of batteries (many terawatt hours)

Average UK demand in such a system will be 150GW over the entire year or more.

And it's worth noting that even the Government (which loves to depend on magical BECCS and CCS) suggests rather than more than twice current nuclear output in its scenarios [~20-25GWe total].....

 

[philosopher]

I suppose my point is that people have been trying with Tidal for decades, and never been remotely successful.

The answer is going to be a smallish baseload of nuclear (about twice what we have now), Wind, solar, batteries, and more interconnectors. It will take 20-30 years, but we’ll get there.

With tidal power, could the cost come down if it was deployed at scale? Wind and solar 30 years ago were quite expensive forms of electricity, but now they are relatively cheap, which must be in part due to their large scale deployment in the last 30 years.

 

[Jammy Dodger]

With tidal power, could the cost come down if it was deployed at scale? Wind and solar 30 years ago were quite expensive forms of electricity, but now they are relatively cheap, which must be in part due to their large scale deployment in the last 30 years.

Most likely, yes. For 95% of everything that is ever made, economies of scale can be applied - the more you make, the cheaper each individual unit gets. Solar has had this because they are no longer an emerging technology, and are now coming off of manufacturing lines like cars. Nothing to suggest tidal wouldn't be any different, assuming there is a viable design for said mass manufacture.

 

[Dai Corner]

Most likely, yes. For 95% of everything that is ever made, economies of scale can be applied - the more you make, the cheaper each individual unit gets. Solar has had this because they are no longer an emerging technology, and are now coming off of manufacturing lines like cars. Nothing to suggest tidal wouldn't be any different, assuming there is a viable design for said mass manufacture.

How do you mass manufacture a tidal power installation?

 

[Bald Rick]

With tidal power, could the cost come down if it was deployed at scale? Wind and solar 30 years ago were quite expensive forms of electricity, but now they are relatively cheap, which must be in part due to their large scale deployment in the last 30 years.

Most likely, yes.

Definitely no.

Offshore Wind has become much cheaper through significant economy of scale through a) scaling up individual turbine size and b) the installation of thousands of them just around the U.K., in a production line process.

Solar has become cheaper through a) technological development of different solar panel technology and b) ramping up production to millions of panels in centralised factories then easily shipped all round the world.


Large tidal projects are using essentially the same technology from the early days of hydropower - concrete or mass dams (barrages), locks, sluices, large generators. If there’s a revolution in technology coming here, then hydropower would benefit more easily and rather more quickly than damming the Bristol Channel.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2023 ==

For most of the last decade, had the state built such a plant it would have been comically cheap because the low interest rates

But interest rates are now not so cheap. So it would have been a gamble that went wrong.

And diurnal load cycling like that from Tidal is far easier to manage than the longer term variations with wind

Agreed it is easier. But it still needs managing.

To make that system work you will either have to many many more connectors than we have now. Or truly comical quantities of batteries (many terawatt hours)

we will have many more connectors, and lots of batteries (Not least in 40 million road vehicles)

 

[HSTEd]

But interest rates are now not so cheap. So it would have been a gamble that went wrong.

Changes in interest rates cannot effect impact rates on gilts that were already issued!

The interest rate on very long issue gilts is fixed at the moment of issue.

What interest rates are some arbitrary point in the future is of no consequence for the issuer of said gilt.

 

[Bald Rick]

Changes in interest rates cannot effect impact rates on gilts that were already issued!

The interest rate on very long issue gilts is fixed at the moment of issue.

What interest rates are some arbitrary point in the future is of no consequence for the issuer of said gilt.

That misunderstands how Government borrowing works. Borrowing is not hypothecated to where it is spent. Whilst you might have borrowed last year at low interest rates, you are borrowing this year at higher rates. What matters to Government is the Average Weighted Cost of Capital (AWCC).

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Changes in interest rates cannot effect impact rates on gilts that were already issued!

It does, however, affect the price of the bond if traded (bought/sold) in a secondary market before maturity.

 

[JamesT]

Changes in interest rates cannot effect impact rates on gilts that were already issued!

The interest rate on very long issue gilts is fixed at the moment of issue.

What interest rates are some arbitrary point in the future is of no consequence for the issuer of said gilt.

Not entirely correct. There is such a thing as an index-linked gilt, where the interest payments and the value of the gilt itself vary with RPI. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gove...calculationofinterestpayableongovernmentgilts has various gory details.

Index-linked gilts accounted for around a quarter, or £503.7 billion, of the UK government’s stock of debt in March 2022

So high levels of inflation will have a direct impact on at least that portion of the government debt.

 

[Annetts key]

Definitely no.

Definitely not no. Depends on the system and technology used.

Large tidal projects are using essentially the same technology from the early days of hydropower - concrete or mass dams (barrages), locks, sluices, large generators. If there’s a revolution in technology coming here, then hydropower would benefit more easily and rather more quickly than damming the Bristol Channel.

That’s just one form. There are others. For example, one type is basically an underwater turbine that operates with the slow flow of water. No big concrete dam needed. So if these were mass produced (so hopefully cheaper than conventional if enough are made) and all connected together, they could generate a significant amount of electricity.