SWR 701s if Crossrail 2 goes ahead

[YSTrains]

Crossrail 2 is expected to be operational by the 2030s. The Class 701s would already be in service at that time and the 455s would be long gone. However they are taking over the Shepperton, Hampton Court and Chessington South branches. Even Epsom will be part of this service. Wouldnt that make many class 701s surplus?

 

[JonathanH]

Crossrail 2 is expected to be operational by the 2030s.

It really isn't.

The Class 701s would already be in service at that time and the 455s would be long gone. However they are taking over the Shepperton, Hampton Court and Chessington South branches. Even Epsom will be part of this service. Wouldnt that make many class 701s surplus?

It would make them surplus if Crossrail 2 was happening in the time frame you suggest. However, there is nothing to indicate the Crossrail 2 is happening. The need to replace 455s is now.

If Crossrail 2 happens in the lifetime of the 701s, they could be used elsewhere - eg as replacements for 377s on Southern metro routes or 450s on SWR.

I note that Crossrail 2 may have been more likely when the 701s were ordered. I guess there was some plan as to where they might end up when Crossrail 2 opened. Some would clearly still be needed on the Windsor side of Waterloo, while others could have continued to run parts of the residual service into the current suburban platforms at Waterloo.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Crossrail 2 is expected to be operational by the 2030s. The Class 701s would already be in service at that time and the 455s would be long gone. However they are taking over the Shepperton, Hampton Court and Chessington South branches. Even Epsom will be part of this service. Wouldnt that make many class 701s surplus?

They’d be perfect to start replacing Southern Metro 377s which would be heading towards live expiry in the 2030s of this every gets off the ground which seems increasingly unlikely.

 

[Bald Rick]

Crossrail 2 is expected to be operational by the 2030s.

It isn’t!

If Government decided, tomorrow, that it wanted to proceed with Crossrail 2, it would be 5 years before construction started, and it’s a 13 year construction programme.

 

[Mikey C]

Crossrail 2 is expected to be operational by the 2030s. The Class 701s would already be in service at that time and the 455s would be long gone. However they are taking over the Shepperton, Hampton Court and Chessington South branches. Even Epsom will be part of this service. Wouldnt that make many class 701s surplus?

It might be more accurate to start with :-

Class 701 are expected to be operational by the 2030s

 

[The Ham]

It isn’t!

If Government decided, tomorrow, that it wanted to proceed with Crossrail 2, it would be 5 years before construction started, and it’s a 13 year construction programme.

On that timeline (which is still fairly heroic) the 450's would be needing replacing, whether the 701's would be a suitable replacement is another matter.

However the introduction of Crossrail 2 (XR2) is almost a rip it up and start again in terms of what SWR looks like, as there's the possibility of an extra 8tph from Waterloo from the services which switch to XR2 services.

As such there's almost an element of anything goes.

Arguably the 444's could be up for replacement first if there was any form of bimodal/battery option being purchased for the WofE line (create a single fleet to replace the 158/159's and 444's, to make it much easier operationally and cheaper to maintain).

Depending on passenger numbers at the time it could allow the fleet to shrink a little or grow a little, however an overall fleet of 65-70 * 5 coach trains would be a near like for like replacement.

 

[stuu]

Arguably the 444's could be up for replacement first if there was any form of bimodal/battery option being purchased for the WofE line (create a single fleet to replace the 158/159's and 444's, to make it much easier operationally and cheaper to maintain).

That would surely be the tail wagging the dog in terms of numbers of units. There's about twice as many 444 cars than 159s, the capital cost alone would make that an uneconomic choice

 

[The Ham]

That would surely be the tail wagging the dog in terms of numbers of units. There's about twice as many 444 cars than 159s, the capital cost alone would make that an uneconomic choice

It depends, there's a chance that the 444's would be circa 25 years old at about the point in time that this would likely happen (maybe a bit older if the 159's make it beyond 35). That's about new enough that they could be used elsewhere (and with a pantograph being able to be fitted they have plenty of places where they could go) but also old enough that if they didn't find a home that wouldn't be a complete deal breaker.

Likewise the 444's could be replaced on a rolling program beyond the 159's, pushing their age a little more (i.e. an option for x number of coaches within y years).

One thing to consider is that the Desiro Cities resumes in a significant maintenance cost reduction by building for maintenance rather than ease of building, those costs soon mount up. Which could result in enough of a saving to justify the extra cost (if there is one).

One of the advantages would be the ability to run longer trains and/or more services towards Weymouth.

 

[Mikey C]

It depends, there's a chance that the 444's would be circa 25 years old at about the point in time that this would likely happen (maybe a bit older if the 159's make it beyond 35). That's about new enough that they could be used elsewhere (and with a pantograph being able to be fitted they have plenty of places where they could go) but also old enough that if they didn't find a home that wouldn't be a complete deal breaker.

Likewise the 444's could be replaced on a rolling program beyond the 159's, pushing their age a little more (i.e. an option for x number of coaches within y years).

One thing to consider is that the Desiro Cities resumes in a significant maintenance cost reduction by building for maintenance rather than ease of building, those costs soon mount up. Which could result in enough of a saving to justify the extra cost (if there is one).

One of the advantages would be the ability to run longer trains and/or more services towards Weymouth.

Isn't the cheap electrification the restriction on the length of trains running between Bournemouth and Weymouth?

 

[swt_passenger]

Crossrail 2 is expected to be operational by the 2030s. The Class 701s would already be in service at that time and the 455s would be long gone. However they are taking over the Shepperton, Hampton Court and Chessington South branches. Even Epsom will be part of this service. Wouldnt that make many class 701s surplus?

Agree with others this is pretty much academic because CR2 is now on the very furthest back burner.

I think though that it’s an oversimplification to assume CR2 taking over some branches would automatically allow the displaced stock to be surplus, because the idea was firstly that some other branches would retain their SWR services alongside CR2, and secondly that many longer distance routes would have frequency increases, with the current outer suburban services that switch to the main fasts between Woking and Surbiton, (about 6 or 7 in the peak hours), staying on the main suburban lines all the way into Waterloo. Then all those intended Waterloo main fast services with increased frequencies would also need extra rolling stock, and I think it would have been achieved by cascading more 701s onto slightly longer outer suburban services, releasing 450s. For example 5 car 701s could easily be used on the Guildford/Farnham/Ascot short workings, or even on Portsmouth - Southampton stoppers.

 

[Horizon22]

Agree with others this is pretty much academic because CR2 is now on the very furthest back burner.

I think though that it’s an oversimplification to assume CR2 taking over some branches would automatically allow the displaced stock to be surplus, because the idea was firstly that some other branches would retain their SWR services alongside CR2, and secondly that many longer distance routes would have frequency increases, with the current outer suburban services that switch to the main fasts between Woking and Surbiton, (about 6 or 7 in the peak hours), staying on the main suburban lines all the way into Waterloo. Then all those intended Waterloo main fast services with increased frequencies would also need extra rolling stock, and I think it would have been achieved by cascading more 701s onto slightly longer outer suburban services, releasing 450s. For example 5 car 701s could easily be used on the Guildford/Farnham/Ascot short workings, or even on Portsmouth - Southampton stoppers.

What would probably happen would be a phased approach anyway with the new operator taking over the branding, stations and route but continuning to run the same stock to same destinations in the beginning, much in the way TfL Rail existed as a product before the Elizabeth Line came to be.

 

[swt_passenger]

What would probably happen would be a phased approach anyway with the new operator taking over the branding, stations and route but continuning to run the same stock to same destinations in the beginning, much in the way TfL Rail existed as a product before the Elizabeth Line came to be.

Yes, that’s also quite possible.

I do wonder though if they ever got as far as planning for future rolling stock changes, it always seemed to be receding into the distant future…

 

[Bald Rick]

I do wonder though if they ever got as far as planning for future rolling stock changes, it always seemed to be receding into the distant future…

No, they didn’t.