UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Bletchleyite]

What I haven't seen anyone mention yet is how the long term battery life on an EV will fall the more times it is charged, or long term range reduction. Like a phone battery, the older it gets, the less use between charges it gives. The only way the cost of a new battery is offset is by the reduced maintenance costs of an EV and extra depreciation to the used value of the car when its battery is degraded. Some cheaper EVs will simply be uneconomical.

The effect of this isn't as big as mobile phones, because a car gives you the space to properly ventilate and manage the temperature of batteries in a way a phone doesn't. However, like the way an old small petrol car is normally relegated to "cheap runaround" duties, only ever making local journeys, so will be an EV with a degraded battery life. Nothing new to see there.

Fitting new batteries won't really be a thing for cars unless they are actually faulty.

 

[DelW]

What I haven't seen anyone mention yet is how the long term battery life on an EV will fall the more times it is charged, or long term range reduction. Like a phone battery, the older it gets, the less use between charges it gives. The only way the cost of a new battery is offset is by the reduced maintenance costs of an EV and extra depreciation to the used value of the car when its battery is degraded. Some cheaper EVs will simply be uneconomical.

There was plenty of discussion of battery life and alternative uses for old batteries earlier in this thread.
Admittedly it might take a bit of finding in over a thousand posts.

 

[trebor79]

Battery degradation isn't a huge issue. There are Teslas that have done hundreds of thousands of miles that are still at 90% of original capacity.
Also helped by not charging to 100% all the time. As well as the heat issue mentioned above, charging to 100% (particularly at night when it then stays at 100% for many hours) quickly trashes phone batteries. In fact I believe the latest iPhones "learn" what time in the morning you start to actually use the phone, and arrange things so that 100% charge is hot only shortly before that, to help manage this effect.

 

[JamesT]

Battery degradation isn't a huge issue. There are Teslas that have done hundreds of thousands of miles that are still at 90% of original capacity.
Also helped by not charging to 100% all the time. As well as the heat issue mentioned above, charging to 100% (particularly at night when it then stays at 100% for many hours) quickly trashes phone batteries. In fact I believe the latest iPhones "learn" what time in the morning you start to actually use the phone, and arrange things so that 100% charge is hot only shortly before that, to help manage this effect.

On the flip side, there's the Nissan E-NV200 that I've mentioned on here before. Which at 4-5 years old can barely make a trip from Oxford to Slough before running out, a journey of 45 miles. Whereas the quoted range is 124 miles.

 

[Noddy]

On the flip side, there's the Nissan E-NV200 that I've mentioned on here before. Which at 4-5 years old can barely make a trip from Oxford to Slough before running out, a journey of 45 miles. Whereas the quoted range is 124 miles.

That sounds like it should be replaced under warranty.

 

[trebor79]

On the flip side, there's the Nissan E-NV200 that I've mentioned on here before. Which at 4-5 years old can barely make a trip from Oxford to Slough before running out, a journey of 45 miles. Whereas the quoted range is 124 miles.

Doesn't that have the same rubbish passive air-cooled battery that the Leaf has? Leafs also suffer from degradation, particularly if rapid charged as there is no thermal management at all on the battery.

 

[jon0844]

What I haven't seen anyone mention yet is how the long term battery life on an EV will fall the more times it is charged, or long term range reduction. Like a phone battery, the older it gets, the less use between charges it gives. The only way the cost of a new battery is offset is by the reduced maintenance costs of an EV and extra depreciation to the used value of the car when its battery is degraded. Some cheaper EVs will simply be uneconomical.

You haven't seen anyone mention it? Here, or in general? It's one of the many common myths that gets mentioned. It all plays into the false narrative that an EV will only last for a few years before the battery dies.

As for phone batteries, many new phones have batteries that will take 1600+ charge cycles. That battery will be lasting longer than 95% of owners will probably keep the phone. Given most people do less than 5,000 miles a year, the figures coming out on some cars (like some Teslas) shows you'd possibly need about 30 years of owning your car to see a significant drop in performance.

Phones have for some time had smart charging routines that learn your usage, and can limit charging to 80-90% or manage the battery more effectively when it's full so it isn't always trickle charging to keep at 100%. In reality, most phones will lie and say 100% when it isn't actually the case - purely to protect the longevity of the battery.

PC laptops also seem to have this now, and Apple has certainly done the same for the iPhone and MacBooks.

All of this applies to cars also, but they have much better thermal management and space over a 9mm thick smartphone surrounded by heat generating components.

Remember also that when batteries do get taken out of cars years down the line, with 80-85% capacity remaining, they may be fitted in another vehicle as a refurb, or go into home battery storage where they'll last many more years again.

 

[AM9]

What I haven't seen anyone mention yet is how the long term battery life on an EV will fall the more times it is charged, or long term range reduction. Like a phone battery, the older it gets, the less use between charges it gives. The only way the cost of a new battery is offset is by the reduced maintenance costs of an EV and extra depreciation to the used value of the car when its battery is degraded. Some cheaper EVs will simply be uneconomical.

Most EVs to date have done over 100k miles on their original battery and some are tending towards 200k. That's excluding Teslas where there are examples of over 300k. Nissan Leafs, for all their virtues (mainly low purchase cost) with their unmanaged battery temperature, are not necessarily typical of EV to date and it is likely that even future Nissan EVs will have fully managed batteries like most other manufacter's models currently do.
At those mileages, the batteries are showing between 10 and 20% reductions in capacity. So with average annual mileage of between 7k and 10k miles, that 10-14 years full use. Most ICE cars on the road with those sort of mileages are as @Bletchleyite says not running the same type of critical journeys as they were for the first 5 years.

 

[reddragon]

What I haven't seen anyone mention yet is how the long term battery life on an EV will fall the more times it is charged, or long term range reduction. Like a phone battery, the older it gets, the less use between charges it gives. The only way the cost of a new battery is offset is by the reduced maintenance costs of an EV and extra depreciation to the used value of the car when its battery is degraded. Some cheaper EVs will simply be uneconomical.

A Petrol engine typically lasts 100,000 miles and will cost c£3k to rebuild and a new replacement isn't usually possible.
A Diesel engine typically lasts 150,000 miles and will coat c£5k to rebuild and a new replacement isn't usually possible.
An old Nissan LEAF battery typically lasts 200,000 miles before degradation becomes a real issue and will cost 4 hours of labour plus replacement cells to repair.
Most EV batteries are good for 400,000 miles before becoming grid storage.
LFP EV batteries are expected to last 1 million miles.

EV batteries can last as little as 500 cycles if only ever charged to full then run to flat. Last as in enough range loss to be an issue. Well cared for EV batteries kept mid range on charge percentage, 20-80% recommended will last c10,000 cycles. LFP batteries seem to last forever.

 

[MotCO]

Is there any significant degradation of EV batteries if they are usually charged quickly rather than slowly? Also, if car EVs batteries are used to feed into the power network, they would presumably need to be recharged afterwards. Thus there is a charge / recharge cycle which does not move the car; will this use also reduce the life (expressed in miles travelled) of the batteries?

 

[reddragon]

Is there any significant degradation of EV batteries if they are usually charged quickly rather than slowly? Also, if car EVs batteries are used to feed into the power network, they would presumably need to be recharged afterwards. Thus there is a charge / recharge cycle which does not move the car; will this use also reduce the life (expressed in miles travelled) of the batteries?

It has been found that slow, rapid & ultra rapid charging are fine if the battery temperature is managed, so the latest cars can charge much faster because the BMS is better, as is the cooling capability & size. The air cooled Nissan LEAF battery suffered under Rapid charging in the hot of Nevada, as did mine in 40C+ crossing Spain.

Grid usage mid charge band has negligible effects or none on LFP

 

[Energy]

It has been found that slow, rapid & ultra rapid charging are fine if the battery temperature is managed, so the latest cars can charge much faster because the BMS is better, as is the cooling capability & size. The air cooled Nissan LEAF battery suffered under Rapid charging in the hot of Nevada, as did mine in 40C+ crossing Spain.

Running your battery 100% to 0% all the time will have a bigger effect. than infrequent rapid charging.

 

[jon0844]

I doubt anyone would run to 0%, assuming they even could given the fact it seems cars not only lie a little to give a bit of extra range as a safety margin, but also have larger capacity batteries with artificial limits - a bit like hard drives and SSDs.

Letting a fuel tank run to empty isn't a great idea either!

 

[MotCO]

Interesting in that SMMT data - in December Battery EVs outsold pure petrol cars for the first time ever, and more than 10 times the number of pure diesel cars. Albeit there has evidently been a big delivery of Teslas in December.

Harry Metcalfe of "Harry's Garage" * fame has a different point of view. Whilst I don't doubt that there was a shipment of Teslas in December (is that unusual?), he believes the increase in December EV sales is a consequence of manufacturers having to meet a target of EV sales as a proportion of their overall sales. If there were too many ICE cars sold up to November, then there has to be a large increase in EV sales in December to meet the target; failure to meet the target results in a very large fine.

I can understand what Harry is saying but it assumes that there as a stock of EVs available to be sold in December, which seems contrary to the reports of long delays, shortage of transistors etc.

Alternatively, maybe dealers are resorting to the old tactic of buying the cars themselves (pre-registering them), or restricting deliveries of ICE cars to meet the targets.

The SMMT data was reported by the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64165689.amp . What it also quoted was that to meet the number of new EV cars on the road, the SMMT believed that there needs to be 100 new charging points per day; up to Q3 of 2022, only 23 per day were being installed, which on the face of it is storing up problems for the future.

*

Harry is quite an objective reporter, and in his video, he explains why he gave up his EV car. Basically, whilst useful for short journeys and he appreciated the quiet, smooth running of the car, he was frustrated by the lack of range. He also felt the greenest option is to continue to run your existing cars for longer since they are now more reliable. Cars which used to be good for 100,000 miles, are now good for 150,000 miles.

 

[AM9]

Cars which used to be good for 100,000 miles, are now good for 150,000 miles.

How would a car that was good for 100,000 miles become good for an extra 50,000 miles just by the passing of time?

 

[jon0844]

I've seen videos that suggest the best time to switch from ICE to EV is.. now.

Obviously not everyone can afford to do that, and if you're doing very low mileage, the tipping point is probably different.

However, even with electricity going up in cost, I doubt we can see a time where electricity will cost more than petrol or diesel. The issue is of course the charging at places like service stations, but here you're paying convenience fees for faster charging, not the cost of the electricity itself.

I get that people will probably always have range anxiety issues, even though most cars now offer far more range than anyone would need in a day, possibly even a week. For people who will only ever charge at home, there's really no issue and nothing can beat starting every day with a fully charged (well, maybe 80%) car.

I doubt many people always top up their fuel tank on the way home!

 

[MotCO]

How would a car that was good for 100,000 miles become good for an extra 50,000 miles just by the passing of time?

I meant that 20 years ago, a car would struggle to do 100,000 miles; nowadays, cars are good for at least 150,000 miles.

 

[antharro]

^^^ This. A modern engine will go on for a long time if properly maintained. 100,000 would be my absolute minimum expected life. I have two cars in my yard that have over 200,000 miles, and still start, run and drive absolutely fine. Engines are often not the reason cars get scrapped now - it's often worn out suspension, steering problems, electrical problems, that are too expensive to repair. As long as the engine has been serviced regularly, it should carry on for a long time. I used to have an 1993 Honda Accord that had nearly 150,000 miles on it - the only reason I got rid of it was a combination of rust and unavailability of the ABS sensors, even aftermarket. The day the new owners collected it, it still started perfectly first time and drove onto their vehicle no problem.

 

[Bald Rick]

Harry Metcalfe of "Harry's Garage" * fame has a different point of view. Whilst I don't doubt that there was a shipment of Teslas in December (is that unusual?), he believes the increase in December EV sales is a consequence of manufacturers having to meet a target of EV sales as a proportion of their overall sales.

I think that’s unlikely. Four reasons:

1) 40% of the EVs sold in December were Teslas. As they only make electric cars, they would be excluded from such a target, and therefore not have that incentive to do this

2) Of all the cars Tesla registered in 2022, nearly a third were done in December. This suggests a big end of year push for them corporately - possibly to help Elon mitigate his rather large share prices losses (and implies that a few boat loads turned up)

3) None of the other manufacturers had a similar EV push in December

4) the EV % targets for manufacturers don’t start until 2024…

all data here:

UK New Car Registration Data - Latest Figures & Statistics | SMMT

Discover the latest UK car registration data: new car registration statistics, the number of cars in the UK, and more.

www.smmt.co.uk

 

[MotCO]

4) the EV % targets for manufacturers don’t start until 2024…

The regulations, according to Harry Metcalfe, came in in 2020, as shown in this extract of the video.
Regulation EU 2019/631 set the CO2 emission targets for 2020 to 2024. From 2025, the targets are stricter.

 

[Bald Rick]

The regulations, according to Harry Metcalfe, came in in 2020, as shown in this extract of the video.
Regulation EU 2019/631 set the CO2 emission targets for 2020 to 2024. From 2025, the targets are stricter.

those are emissions targets, not EV targets. And as I said, the big increase in December was Tesla, who don’t make cars that have emissions.

 

[trebor79]

I think that’s unlikely. Four reasons:

1) 40% of the EVs sold in December were Teslas. As they only make electric cars, they would be excluded from such a target, and therefore not have that incentive to do this

I believe Tesla do make substantial profit selling EV credits (or whatever the terminology is) tomother manufacturers who haven't hit the target. Same way biomethane to transport fuel suppliers makes load of money selling RTFCs to the likes of Shell and BP who have massive short positions.
So there will be some incentive there.

 

[AM9]

I meant that 20 years ago, a car would struggle to do 100,000 miles; nowadays, cars are good for at least 150,000 miles.

IO suspected that, but it is a false claim. A car today is a totally different vehicle from that produced 20 years ago, - not in fundamental technology, but in reliability, durability and servicability. However those improvements come at a price, much of the maintenence of current vehicles requires specialist equipment, often required to demonstrate compliance with current vehicle legislation.

 

[bspahh]

IO suspected that, but it is a false claim. A car today is a totally different vehicle from that produced 20 years ago, - not in fundamental technology, but in reliability, durability and servicability. However those improvements come at a price, much of the maintenence of current vehicles requires specialist equipment, often required to demonstrate compliance with current vehicle legislation.

I have driven a few cars until they were scrapped.

A 1984 Maestro did 140k miles in 10 years until it overheated on a motorway to the point where all the wiring on the engine block melted. The warning light for an overheating engine had long since stopped working usefully, so I had covered it with insulating tape.

A 1986 Fiesta did 140k miles in 14 years. It still worked but was rusty, the suspension was saggy and it needed leaded petrol every so often, unless you wanted to spend some money. The starter motor would sometimes need percussive maintenance with a lump hammer to stop it from churning the engine over.

Next was a Focus with the 1.6 petrol engine from 2000, which was still running well with 220k miles when it was written off after another car drove into the back of it. It was only at low speed, but it bent too many panels to be economic to repair. I could keep driving it, but the worry was that crumple zones would have been damaged. If I was the only user, I wouldn't have been bothered about this, but I was using it for the school run with other peoples' kids, so I was.

I now have a diesel Mondeo from 2012 with 196k miles. Mechanically and structurally it is fine. However, there is a problem with the central locking and electric window on one of the back doors. There is a warning chime about the child lock on that door. Warning lights are now a reason for an MOT failure. I don't know if that would cause it to fail. I replaced the main engine management board a few years ago. I can see it being scrapped when the electronics, wiring or sensors fail, rather than mechanical problems.

 

[The Ham]

I now have a diesel Mondeo from 2012 with 196k miles. Mechanically and structurally it is fine. However, there is a problem with the central locking and electric window on one of the back doors. There is a warning chime about the child lock on that door. Warning lights are now a reason for an MOT failure. I don't know if that would cause it to fail. I replaced the main engine management board a few years ago. I can see it being scrapped when the electronics, wiring or sensors fail, rather than mechanical problems.

As long as the garage can turn it off and it be off for the point of inspection then it's not going to cause the car to fail.

Whilst this arguably defeats the point of such a rule, it does avoid a minor sensor failure (which could cost hundreds to fix but cause no increased risk to safety) causing an otherwise fine car to be scrapped.

 

[Noddy]

As I’ve been pretty clear through the discourse I think the answer to the title of this thread is yes!

However, this is bad news for the UK car industry (which clearly isn’t ready) and the wider manufacturing industry. It sends out a terrible message. The Chinese and US (through the inflation reduction act) have made great efforts to support (subsidise) the gigafactory ‘industry’, a key component is the so called fourth Industrial Revolution. The UK is getting seriously left behind here.

Britishvolt: UK battery start-up collapses into administration

The majority of Britishvolt's 232 employees have been made redundant after last minute attempts to find a buyer failed.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK battery start-up Britishvolt has collapsed into administration, with the majority of its 232 staff made redundant with immediate effect.
Employees were told the news at an all-staff meeting on Tuesday morning.
The firm had planned to build a giant factory to make electric car batteries in Blyth, Northumberland.
Ministers had hailed it as a "levelling up" opportunity that would boost the region's economy and support the future of UK car making.
But Britishvolt struggled to turn a profit and ran out of money. Its board is believed to have decided on Monday that there were no viable bids to keep the company afloat.
Plans for the £3.8bn factory in Blyth were part of a long-term vision to boost UK manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries and create around 3,000 skilled jobs.
The project was championed by government ministers due to the area being one of the main so-called "red wall" seats to change hands from Labour to the Conservatives in the 2019 General Election.
The UK currently only has one Chinese-owned battery plant next to the Nissan factory in Sunderland, while 35 plants are planned or already under construction in the European Union.
Industry experts have said the UK will need several battery factories to support the future of UK car making as pure petrol and diesel engines are phased out over the next decade.

 

[johncrossley]

As I’ve been pretty clear through the discourse I think the answer to the title of this thread is yes!

However, this is bad news for the UK car industry (which clearly isn’t ready) and the wider manufacturing industry. It sends out a terrible message. The Chinese and US (through the inflation reduction act) have made great efforts to support (subsidise) the gigafactory ‘industry’, a key component is the so called fourth Industrial Revolution. The UK is getting seriously left behind here.

Britishvolt: UK battery start-up collapses into administration

The majority of Britishvolt's 232 employees have been made redundant after last minute attempts to find a buyer failed.

www.bbc.co.uk

Why does it matter where the batteries are produced?

 

[Noddy]

Why does it matter where the batteries are produced?

1) Jobs
2) Access to batteries. We know that Chinese auto manufacturers have greater access to batteries, whereas European manufacturers are struggling to source them. This is extremely ‘useful’ for the Chinese and partly why we’re seeing so many new Chinese car companies enter western markets.
3) Jobs.
4) Greater control/influence of where the raw materials are sourced from.
5) Jobs
6) In future the battery industry will be mostly circular through recycling. We can either be in this multi-billion (multi-trillion?) dollar industry or not.
7) Jobs

 

[johncrossley]

1) Jobs
2) Access to batteries. We know that Chinese auto manufacturers have greater access to batteries, whereas European manufacturers are struggling to source them. This is extremely ‘useful’ for the Chinese and partly why we’re seeing so many new Chinese car companies enter western markets.
3) Jobs.
4) Greater control/influence of where the raw materials are sourced from.
5) Jobs
6) In future the battery industry will be mostly circular through recycling. We can either be in this multi-billion (multi-trillion?) dollar industry or not.
7) Jobs

Jobs might be provided by other industries. Tying up staff making batteries might not be the best use of their talent if there are staff shortages elsewhere.

A nominally Chinese/Asian/American/European manufacturer may well have shareholders throughout the world. The head office may be in a certain part of the world but their staff and shareholders may be located worldwide. Clearly in the case of a listed company anyone can buy shares. Most of the people on this thread probably own part of Tesla through their pension. You can even buy Hyundai shares on the London Stock Exchange.

 

[Domh245]

1) Jobs
2) Access to batteries. We know that Chinese auto manufacturers have greater access to batteries, whereas European manufacturers are struggling to source them. This is extremely ‘useful’ for the Chinese and partly why we’re seeing so many new Chinese car companies enter western markets.
3) Jobs.
4) Greater control/influence of where the raw materials are sourced from.
5) Jobs
6) In future the battery industry will be mostly circular through recycling. We can either be in this multi-billion (multi-trillion?) dollar industry or not.
7) Jobs

4 jobs is probably about right given the highly automated nature of battery manufacture!

I was under the impression that raw materials is very much the sellers market - there's only so many countries producing the necessary metals, so whilst you can perhaps source them from terrible option B rather than A, if you want to do it at scale (as implied by the rest of the post) then isn't your hand rather forced?