Lockdown effects now killing/harming more people than Covid

[Razorblades]

During the 80s when I was working at ICI, due to cutbacks most staff over 50 took early retirement many of them died not long after.I believe we have a situation now where thousands of over 50s have given up work post Covid.So could be the cause?

Back to the 'died of' rather than 'died with' conundrum!

I don't think 'died because of retirement' has ever appeared on a death certificate!

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Back to the 'died of' rather than 'died with' conundrum!

I don't think 'died because of retirement' has ever appeared on a death certificate!

I rather suspect also that there is a tendency for those who are in less good health to start with the be more likely to take early retirement?

 

[Razorblades]

I rather suspect also that there is a tendency for those who are in less good health to start with the be more likely to take early retirement?

...or comfortably 'well-off' and able to pursue higher risk lifestyles, rather than sit around all day reading People's Friend (which would probably bore me to death!!!).

 

[Stephen42]

The paper can be found here

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full

I suppose there may be some people out there who are both still scared of getting covid *and* haven't been vaccinated for some reason or other, but I strongly suspect that the vast majority of those still unvaccinated are those like myself who thought the whole thing was a massive overreaction, thought the vaccines failed to pass a benefit-risk ratio for their own personal case, and only changed behaviour to the extent that the law demanded it, and hence have been doing all the 'normal' things they would usually be doing for many months now.

A bigger problem with the study would appear to be that testing was voluntary, and it is quite plausible that those who decided not to get vaccinated also avoided doing tests for the same reasons. So that may be adding some bias to the results, in much the same way as the UKHSA data from last winter/spring was potentially biased by this factor.

I'd agree that for that paper testing being voluntary is a large source of potential bias. There aren't any stats on either number of tests or positivity rates (presumably as only positives were recorded) to understand that. Only 40% had prior infection by September 2022 which is low.

The other issue is it's a cox regression and there are signs of poor fit in the model. Clinical only being 11% higher hazard with male gender 22% lower are surprising. In the other stratification has a year since infection/vaccination as less likely to be infected than 9-12 months. If there is poor fit it can impact every ratio present and can't see any analysis about the quality of the fit.

The UKHSA table of crude rates would have been impacted by this factor, but the far bigger problem was the actual vaccinated/unvaccinated proportion is unknown. The dataset used was more reliable for older people than the alternatives but miles out for younger adults. Coupled with other behavioural differences and relevant risk factors impacting vaccination takeup the table and any comparisons based on it were essentially worthless. The other data used better methodologies which would have reduced or eliminated the various biases.

Jamie Jenkins, formerly of the ONS, has been pointing the change in age demographics for some months, and issues his own figures that try to correct for that. That does reduce the excess deaths from the headline figure, but even on these modified figures there has still been a considerable amount every week for about 8 months now.

His analysis is interesting though haven't been able to replicate his numbers. The pandemic means plenty of deaths have occurred at a different time than they otherwise would both later and earlier likely with different demographics for each. It's also difficult to quantify how much higher the expected numbers should be to reflect the new covid risk. The expected level without the pandemic should become clearer later in the year when the post census activities improves the projected/historic population estimates.

 

[brad465]

Can't source a link due to being on phone, but news in that 2022 excess deaths are among the highest for 50 years outside a pandemic. One wonders if effects of covid restrictions have something to do with it.

 

[Simon11]

Can't source a link due to being on phone, but news in that 2022 excess deaths are among the highest for 50 years outside a pandemic. One wonders if effects of covid restrictions have something to do with it.

Here is the link https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64209221

Start of what could have been a good article. I don't understand why they don't have a graph of deaths over the last ten years, broken out by core reason. Would provide for some interesting reading....! Could also look at other countries too.

It would also be interesting to go through the old BBC scare mongering news and put these in front of the BBC, as they realise that lockdown causes more deaths than covid itself.

 

[Bantamzen]

Here is the link https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64209221

Start of what could have been a good article. I don't understand why they don't have a graph of deaths over the last ten years, broken out by core reason. Would provide for some interesting reading....! Could also look at other countries too.

It would also be interesting to go through the old BBC scare mongering news and put these in front of the BBC, as they realise that lockdown causes more deaths than covid itself.

You do kind of get a sense of disappointment from the author in that article. They were clearly hoping to find correlation between the virus / new variant and the higher excess deaths, hence the graphical focus on covid. However they've discovered that the reasons are not covid but something else, very possibly related to the restrictions imposed, which they won't want to start a debate on.

 

[brad465]

You do kind of get a sense of disappointment from the author in that article. They were clearly hoping to find correlation between the virus / new variant and the higher excess deaths, hence the graphical focus on covid. However they've discovered that the reasons are not covid but something else, very possibly related to the restrictions imposed, which they won't want to start a debate on.

Indeed, politicians and many journalists presumably don't want to consider the prospect because that would mean everyone sees what a massive failure they and what they pursued/enabled was. The best saying that sums up the world of journalism now is this: "If someone says it's raining and another person says it isn't raining, the job of a journalist is not to quote both, it's to look out of the ******* window and see which is true."

I do also think there is another factor potentially increasing deaths that the article didn't really cover: increasing population. By definition the higher the population, the more deaths they'll be in a given timeframe, and we're starting to see the baby boomer generation reach life expectancy, so registered deaths will be upward from here. Our attitude to covid makes me somewhat worried that this natural foreseeable situation will cause a lot of panic.

 

[island]

Can't source a link due to being on phone, but news in that 2022 excess deaths are among the highest for 50 years outside a pandemic. One wonders if effects of covid restrictions have something to do with it.

Clearly, immune deficit arising from lack of exposure will have been a major factor.

 

[bramling]

Can't source a link due to being on phone, but news in that 2022 excess deaths are among the highest for 50 years outside a pandemic. One wonders if effects of covid restrictions have something to do with it.

Good that this is finally receiving some publicity, albeit half-hearted. Though most of the media still more interested in other stuff.

This should certainly be one of the frontline issues now.

 

[Crossover]

Interesting thought about extra drinking. I remember seeing a lot of multipacks being carried home from supermarkets and corner shops during the various lockdowns. As well as creating some new alcoholics the whole thing may well have exacerbated some pre-existing issues. In fact, come to think about it I can think of a couple in my arms-length circles.

Almost certainly. My drinking went up during the lockdowns (not to the point of being an alcoholic, as much as my parents jibed me about it - went from very occasional to maybe 4 or 5 pints over the course of a week)

In my case, it has gone back to very occasional again, largely because I am driving a fair bit again and to be honest, I'm not that interested and would prefer to stick largely to squash!

 

[greyman42]

Interesting thought about extra drinking. I remember seeing a lot of multipacks being carried home from supermarkets and corner shops during the various lockdowns. As well as creating some new alcoholics the whole thing may well have exacerbated some pre-existing issues. In fact, come to think about it I can think of a couple in my arms-length circles.

A friend of mine only used to drink in the pub and would only have one night out a week, he had no interest in drinking at home. Come lockdown and the pubs being shut he started drinking in the house and now does so every night to excess. He is aware that he drinks too much but has got into the habit and is finding it hard to kick.

 

[DustyBin]

A friend of mine only used to drink in the pub and would only have one night out a week, he had no interest in drinking at home. Come lockdown and the pubs being shut he started drinking in the house and now does so every night to excess. He is aware that he drinks too much but has got into the habit and is finding it hard to kick.

I suspect there will be tens of thousands (if not more) in the same position. I began drinking more during lockdown and it does indeed quickly become a habit. Even before it gets to what would be widely considered "out of control", it can take a fair amount of effort and discipline to cut back again. I found that having a selection of nice soft drinks in the fridge helped massively (elderflower tonic is one of my favourites!). Sometimes I just wanted to relax with a cold, refreshing drink; it didn't actually need to be a beer/other alcoholic drink.

 

[Cdd89]

I suspect there will be tens of thousands (if not more) in the same position. I began drinking more during lockdown and it does indeed quickly become a habit

I didn’t go in for alcohol, but in the first month of the first lockdown (before I established other coping mechanisms, and rules relaxed a bit) I became seriously addicted to chocolate. Like eating about 1kg of it per day, and nothing else. Looking back I was lucky that it was “only” chocolate.

Luckily it only lasted a relatively short period of time but it was certainly a shock as I didn’t think I had an addictive personality at all.

 

[brad465]

Considering alcohol deaths were at a record high during the pandemic, none of the above is a surprise:

Record alcohol deaths from pandemic drinking

The number of people dying rose by 27% between 2019 and 2021, to more than 9,000.

www.bbc.co.uk

A record number of people died from alcohol last year, which is likely to be the result of increased drinking during the pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics.
There were 9,641 deaths in the UK in 2021, compared to 7,565 in 2019 - a 27% increase.
The ONS says people who were already big drinkers before the pandemic drank more during the Covid years.
Charity Drinkaware said the numbers were "devastating" and "unacceptable".
The 2021 figures are alcohol-specific deaths, which are defined as a direct consequence of alcohol. Most are from alcoholic liver disease.
They account for around a third of all deaths linked to alcohol.
In 2021, UK rates of alcohol-specific deaths per 100,000 people were highest in Scotland and lowest in England:

• 22.4 in Scotland
• 19.3 in Northern Ireland
• 15 in Wales
• 13.9 in England

"Research has suggested that people who were already drinking at higher levels before the pandemic were the most likely to have increased their alcohol consumption during this period," says James Tucker, from the Office for National Statistics.

 

[yorksrob]

I must be one of the few people who drank less during lockdown, mainly due to there being no nice pubs to visit. Back to normal as soon as they opened though.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I must be one of the few people who drank less during lockdown, mainly due to there being no nice pubs to visit. Back to normal as soon as they opened though.

I'm in the same boat, in fact I don't think I drank at all during the lockdowns (I may have had a beer or two over the entire period pubs were shut). However, I did find my drinking increased significantly afterwards relative to beforehand and is still a bit more than I'd like. I do wonder if subconsciously I'm making up for lost time - certainly a lot of other people my age (early to mid 20s) are saying similar things.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I must be one of the few people who drank less during lockdown, mainly due to there being no nice pubs to visit. Back to normal as soon as they opened though.

Me too, I did get a few boxes of beer in from various new online brewery shops but I don’t really enjoy drinking in my house.

The odd scotch here and there but for me it’s an out and about with people thing

 

[yorksrob]

I'm in the same boat, in fact I don't think I drank at all during the lockdowns (I may have had a beer or two over the entire period pubs were shut). However, I did find my drinking increased significantly afterwards relative to beforehand and is still a bit more than I'd like. I do wonder if subconsciously I'm making up for lost time - certainly a lot of other people my age (early to mid 20s) are saying similar things.

Same here I think (although to be fair, I've probably made up for it by now).

 

[VauxhallandI]

BBC showing no signs of self awareness in this article regarding the death of someone who may well have been saved if he had been given a face to face GP appointment.

One death is too many was the cult mantra wasn’t it?

David Nash inquest: Student 'likely to have lived' if seen in-person by GP

A failure to see David Nash face-to-face meant he underwent surgery 10 hours later than was possible.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[brad465]

BBC showing no signs of self awareness in this article regarding the death of someone who may well have been saved if he had been given a face to face GP appointment.

One death is too many was the cult mantra wasn’t it?

David Nash inquest: Student 'likely to have lived' if seen in-person by GP

A failure to see David Nash face-to-face meant he underwent surgery 10 hours later than was possible.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes I saw this, saying covid restrictions was the cause of x deaths/pain is now like saying "Voldemort" in the Wizarding World.

 

[Eyersey468]

BBC showing no signs of self awareness in this article regarding the death of someone who may well have been saved if he had been given a face to face GP appointment.

One death is too many was the cult mantra wasn’t it?

David Nash inquest: Student 'likely to have lived' if seen in-person by GP

A failure to see David Nash face-to-face meant he underwent surgery 10 hours later than was possible.

www.bbc.co.uk

Aah but it was only one death from Covid, nothing else mattered

 

[Drogba11CFC]

BBC showing no signs of self awareness in this article regarding the death of someone who may well have been saved if he had been given a face to face GP appointment.

One death is too many was the cult mantra wasn’t it?

David Nash inquest: Student 'likely to have lived' if seen in-person by GP

A failure to see David Nash face-to-face meant he underwent surgery 10 hours later than was possible.

www.bbc.co.uk

To quote zerobrainszoe, he "Died DURING a lockdown, not because of lockdown."

 

[greyman42]

BBC showing no signs of self awareness in this article regarding the death of someone who may well have been saved if he had been given a face to face GP appointment.

One death is too many was the cult mantra wasn’t it?

David Nash inquest: Student 'likely to have lived' if seen in-person by GP

A failure to see David Nash face-to-face meant he underwent surgery 10 hours later than was possible.

www.bbc.co.uk

The BBC covered it on Saturdays breakfast programme.

 

[VauxhallandI]

The BBC covered it on Saturdays breakfast programme.

With any sense of remorse?

 

[greyman42]

With any sense of remorse?

I didn't get that impression. They failed to mention that they were part of the media shouting for more restrictions.

 

[Eyersey468]

I didn't get that impression. They failed to mention that they were part of the media shouting for more restrictions.

Doesn't surprise me

 

[duncanp]

To quote zerobrainszoe, he "Died DURING a lockdown, not because of lockdown."

But he didn't die during a lockdown.

The timeline on the BBC article says that he first sought help on 14th October 2020, and died on 4th November, the day before the second lockdown started.

Just another example of being failed by the inadequate GP service in the UK.

 

[Howardh]

I must be one of the few people who drank less during lockdown, mainly due to there being no nice pubs to visit. Back to normal as soon as they opened though.

Indeed.

I really constrained myself during lockdown, even keeping a "diary" of my intake - heck, there was little else to do! Managed two days off, one day (evening) on the booze, and those "on" days were never more than 10 units. Could easily have drank myself into a stupor every day just to get through, but resisted the temptation.

Now everything's open again I do drink a little more, but no more than 28 units/week with dry spells inbetween. Think the busybodies tell us that a man should keep to 15 units/wk....they can take a walk!!!!

 

[duncanp]

Indeed.

I really constrained myself during lockdown, even keeping a "diary" of my intake - heck, there was little else to do! Managed two days off, one day (evening) on the booze, and those "on" days were never more than 10 units. Could easily have drank myself into a stupor every day just to get through, but resisted the temptation.

Now everything's open again I do drink a little more, but no more than 28 units/week with dry spells inbetween. Think the busybodies tell us that a man should keep to 15 units/wk....they can take a walk!!!!

Go to Belgium.

The limit there is 21 drinks per week, not alcohol units.

Cheers.