Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[Bantamzen]

Counterpoint: new car sales at 30 year low https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64165689

Definitely more data needed there. Are people simply holding onto their existing cars waiting for the price of EVs to come down? Are they buying second hand instead, or leasing cars?

 

[Starmill]

This is only temporary

While I don't disagree with that we have now had almost three years of either restrictions, very unreliable or thinned out services. It's likely to be at least four before things could improve, and there's a chance it could be five or six. Solving the industrial disputes is only the first step on the road back to quality and reliability and we're some way off that.

 

[YorkshireBear]

While I don't disagree with that we have now had almost three years of either restrictions, very unreliable or thinned out services. It's likely to be at least four before things could improve, and there's a chance it could be five or six. Solving the industrial disputes is only the first step on the road back to quality and reliability and we're some way off that.

Oh yeah I know it isn't going to be quick! But I genuinely don't believe it will go on forever as at some point there will be a political change.

 

[Starmill]

Counterpoint: new car sales at 30 year low https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64165689

Indeed. This is a key reason why demand in the used market is so high.

 

[mike57]

in fact given the massive financial problems ongoing is rapidly becoming more likely. The railways in particular are being seen as more & more of a burden on public finances, and Ministers now & in the future are going to be facing tough decisions.

Which brings up a point which I have raised before, that I suspect that there are those in government who are relishing the current round of disputes, without getting into the rights and wrongs of the disputes, the DfT are acting behind the scenes to limit TOCs with respect to settling. Then as passengers continue to avoid the railway they can say that the railways are finished 'as no one uses them anymore' and pull the subsidies, and a topic which has been a political banana skin for various governments of both parties is confined to the waste basket, much relief in political circles.

I would not want my livelihood to depend on the rail industry in the UK in any way as things stand, either as a direct employee, or in any of the many supporting industries. What would a zero/minimal subsidy railway look like, just the main lines out of London and not much else I suspect.

 

[XIX7007177]

L

Petrol now in many parts of the country has fallen back to just under £1.50 a litre. An increase of 12p will take it up to around £1.60 which is far less than it was 6 months ago.

It should be much lower going by the price of a barrel. Companies will take the opportunity of duty increase to add a few more pence on a litre for their own pockets.

 

[Bletchleyite]

People keep saying that because it's true

It's not. Buying a car does not stop you using rail. Most rail users are also car owners, because most adults are car owners.

and many of these car parks aren't as well used as they were in the past

That's just reduced commuting. If the railway was perfect commuting would still be down.

I don't doubt that usage in some areas will be down a bit - for instance I'm avoiding Avanti, but once it's improved I will be back.

I'd rather travel by train but they just can't be relied upon, car hire companies must be loving it.

Bar the parking shysters there are few businesses more disreputable than car hire (a lot of the time, I'm not aiming this at any specific companies) - I'd rather not go than hire. Probably businesses are though.

But again outside London the vast majority of households already own a car so have no need to hire one.

 

[NI 271]

I wonder if he will have the balls to do it in a couple of months?

I'm pretty certain he will. The government seem more than happy to start any number of fires, knowing it is going to be someone else's problem in 18-24 months, at which point they'll do as they've done for the last 12 years, and blame Labour for causing the utter carnage they've inflicted on us themselves. If there was any hope they might somehow sneak the next general election, he'd be offering all sorts of sops (such as postponing this increase), sadly I feel what we'll see instead is slash and burn, deliberately sabotaging chances of the repair of our country for the next government, who they hope will bear the brunt when people get to breaking point - they are well aware of just how gullible the electorate are.

 

[Clip]

Indeed. This is a key reason why demand in the used market is so high.

It isnt though - as shown in my previous reply - they fell for 2 consecutive quarters and the last one - Q3 they were down 12%

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[Justin Smith]

Every passenger voluntarily making this lifestyle change won't be coming back to the railways, possibly ever. What a disappointment.

I think the unions are cutting their own necks. The government are warning a whole generation could be put off rail travel.
At the end of the day rail travel is heavily subsidised by the tax payer, it is, to a large extent, a public service and is not a free market business like most others. Rail employees are by and large well paid, we are all having to tighten our belts and most of us do not have the option to go on strike for more money anyway. Our only choice if we're unhappy with our wage is go and get another job !

 

[Mikey C]

I think the unions are cutting their own necks. The government are warning a whole generation could be put off rail travel.
At the end of the day rail travel is heavily subsidised by the tax payer, it is, to a large extent, a public service and is not a free market business like most others. Rail employees are by and large well paid, we are all having to tighten our belts and most of us do not have the option to go on strike for more money anyway. Our only choice if we're unhappy with our wage is go and get another job !

Exactly

Public sympathy for say the nurses is FAR higher than railway workers.

 

[Starmill]

Buying a car does not stop you using rail.

I don't think anyone is claiming to this in the absolute though are they?

They're just pointing out that the fixed cost elements (purchase, any finance, VED) and the quasi-fixed costs (maintenance, insurance) combined with the government's huge tax cut on fuel compared to 2010 levels (6p/litre duty less in cash terms, 12 - 18p/litre less in real terms and including VAT https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/fuel-duty-rates) means that the balance is tipped very heavily against public transport for anyone who already has car access. Of course, some changes to the tax system would help this more than spending that bit more to get public transport back to a minimum standard of reliability.

 

[Thirteen]

Which brings up a point which I have raised before, that I suspect that there are those in government who are relishing the current round of disputes, without getting into the rights and wrongs of the disputes, the DfT are acting behind the scenes to limit TOCs with respect to settling. Then as passengers continue to avoid the railway they can say that the railways are finished 'as no one uses them anymore' and pull the subsidies, and a topic which has been a political banana skin for various governments of both parties is confined to the waste basket, much relief in political circles.

I would not want my livelihood to depend on the rail industry in the UK in any way as things stand, either as a direct employee, or in any of the many supporting industries. What would a zero/minimal subsidy railway look like, just the main lines out of London and not much else I suspect.

The railways aren't going to 'finished' as that would be political suicide to get rid of the main way of moving the population from A to B.

The way people go on, you'd think public transport is going to go extinct when the reality is more mundane.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think anyone is claiming to this in the absolute though are they?

I think several people are, yes, and are ignoring the reasons people use rail even if they have a car. A number of people are stating "rail is dead, they won't return" and it's just rubbish.

Sure, if @miklcct for example had a car he wouldn't be doing as many of the esoteric and awkward rail journeys as he sometimes does (and his stress levels would be well down), but driving into London, Manchester, Birmingham or Liverpool* is just grim, and most people simply won't consider doing it regardless (if the trains are in a mess they just won't go at all, hence the big impact on hospitality of the pre-Christmas strikes). And the vast majority of rail journeys are into the big cities and back - rural branch lines and intermediate journeys are just tinkering round the edges.

* Even near leafy Aughton Park, you go to Liverpool by train, you don't take the Jag or Rangie** (or the Tesla these days?). High frequency urban and InterCity services are totally different in their custom to branch lines.
** OK, maybe I'm overdoing it, my parents have a Vauxhall Mokka, albeit a brand new one, and my sister has a Zafira. But car ownership is as close to 100% as you're going to get, basically the only non-car-owners are those not old enough to own one and those medically disqualified, who have received a ban due to a transgression, or who have given up due to their age/infirmity even if still legally allowed. That is, basically everyone who wants a car and is allowed one has one, and most people want one.

 

[156421]

This is quite poorly publicised and the UI isn't too friendly though.

Probably as bus operators don't want to promote a third party website/app.

 

[Starmill]

I think several people are, yes, and are ignoring the reasons people use rail even if they have a car. A number of people are stating "rail is dead, they won't return" and it's just rubbish.

Sure, if @miklcct for example had a car he wouldn't be doing as many of the esoteric and awkward rail journeys as he sometimes does (and his stress levels would be well down), but driving into London, Manchester, Birmingham or Liverpool* is just grim, and most people simply won't consider doing it regardless (if the trains are in a mess they just won't go at all, hence the big impact on hospitality of the pre-Christmas strikes). And the vast majority of rail journeys are into the big cities and back - rural branch lines and intermediate journeys are just tinkering round the edges.

* Even near leafy Aughton Park, you go to Liverpool by train, you don't take the Jag or Rangie** (or the Tesla these days?). High frequency urban and InterCity services are totally different in their custom to branch lines.
** OK, maybe I'm overdoing it, my parents have a Vauxhall Mokka, albeit a brand new one, and my sister has a Zafira. But car ownership is as close to 100% as you're going to get, basically the only non-car-owners are those not old enough to own one and those medically disqualified, who have received a ban due to a transgression, or who have given up due to their age/infirmity even if still legally allowed. That is, basically everyone who wants a car and is allowed one has one, and most people want one.

OK. But I'm sure everyone can accept that the unjustified large tax cuts on motoring while starving the bus and rail industries of public funding shouldn't continue.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jan 2023 ==

The railways aren't going to 'finished' as that would be political suicide to get rid of the main way of moving the population from A to B.

The way people go on, you'd think public transport is going to go extinct when the reality is far from from.

I think it's more true to say that public transport is in managed decline, which is at times unmanaged and messy. Certainly this is true across all of England outside London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jan 2023 ==

It should be much lower going by the price of a barrel. Companies will take the opportunity of duty increase to add a few more pence on a litre for their own pockets.

Fuel retail is a very difficult business to make any profit at all in, even the basline 1-2% margin. Costs for deliveries and for staff in petrol stations have risen significantly in the past few years. If the customer isn't tempted to buy anything in addition to their fuel the retailer isn't going to be able to make any substantial profit.

 

[Bletchleyite]

OK. But I'm sure everyone can accept that the unjustified large tax cuts on motoring while starving the bus and rail industries of public funding shouldn't continue.

This is more for another thread, but in short yes I agree, as the cost of fuel came down the tax should probably creep back up again, it was reduced as an emergency measure (I do agree with that measure, just not keeping it low).

Fuel retail is a very difficult business to make any profit at all in, even the basline 1-2% margin. Costs for deliveries and for staff in petrol stations have risen significantly in the past few years. If the customer isn't tempted to buy anything in addition to their fuel the retailer isn't going to be able to make any substantial profit.

Indeed, the money is made from the associated convenience stores. Which is quite handy, because they're generally quite good these days, it's not just a bloke in a shed any more.

 

[Thirteen]

Perhaps being London based this is true but there are more disincentive to not drive than to drive with things like the Congestion Charge and ULEZ which is why I think public transport isn't going to be abandoned anytime soon by the population. Indeed it's a massive pain to get into Central London even by bus that I honestly couldn't see the railways within this part of the world ever getting closed or trimmed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Perhaps being London based this is true but there are more disincentive to not drive than to drive with things like the Congestion Charge and ULEZ which is why I think public transport isn't going to be abandoned anytime soon by the population. Indeed it's a massive pain to get into Central London even by bus that I honestly couldn't see the railways within this part of the world ever getting closed or trimmed.

Exactly.

1. Driving into big cities is grim. Most people won't even contemplate doing so - if the trains are off they just go a different day instead. Meetings are rearranged, shopping trips you go next week, and perhaps you just don't bother with the Christmas social at all.

2. Most rail journeys are into or within big cities.

Thus, the traffic will return. If anything, the negative effect will be on local bus - who'd use Arriva Milton Keynes' shoddy service if they owned a car? Certainly I hardly ever do as it's never been great and is slowly getting worse.

There might be a bit of impact on odd journeys/branch lines and a bit of moving around lines* but it won't be massive.

* e.g. instead of going in from Aylesbury which is slow and infrequent a lot of Aylesburyites drive to Tring, and driving to outer Tube stations isn't unknown, but again these aren't huge numbers and they're not total losses to rail.

 

[Edsmith]

It's not. Buying a car does not stop you using rail. Most rail users are also car owners, because most adults are car owners.

Strikes make people use cars more, they just see trains as unreliable plus the increase in working from home.

 

[Thirteen]

Exactly.

1. Driving into big cities is grim. Most people won't even contemplate doing so - if the trains are off they just go a different day instead.
2. Most rail journeys are into or within big cities.

Thus, the traffic will return. If anything, the negative effect will be on local bus - who'd use Arriva Milton Keynes' shoddy service if they owned a car? Certainly I hardly ever do as it's never been great and is slowly getting worse.

There might be a bit of impact on odd journeys/branch lines and a bit of moving around lines* but it won't be massive.

* e.g. instead of going in from Aylesbury which is slow and infrequent a lot of Aylesburyites drive to Tring, and driving to outer Tube stations isn't unknown, but again these aren't huge numbers and they're not total losses to rail.

It's why this idea that the railway is heading for destruction is simply not true. Some may be able to drive or WFH but many people can't do either or both and cutting the railways would have a huge detrimental impact that goes beyond increased traffic. Indeed employment and the economy would take a huge hit if the Government decided to close the entire network.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Strikes make people use cars more

To an extent. As I said, few people will be willing to drive into central London, Manchester etc. They'll just reschedule or cancel their trip.

they just see trains as unreliable plus the increase in working from home.

The trend to WFH has relatively little to do with the trains being rubbish. Commuting daily is horrid anyway even if the railway is behaving itself - loss of chunks of your day, lack of sleep etc - people who could stop doing it did anyway, again regardless of the trains, and the people who actually enjoy it will return when the trains are OK again because why wouldn't you return to something you enjoy when it becomes possible again?

 

[al78]

Traffic light cycle times are typically 60 to 90 seconds. For 90 seconds; if there's 4 phases that's an average of 22.5 seconds. However within that 22.5 second you need to allow 5 seconds for intergreen, leaving an average green time of 17.5 seconds and 72.5 seconds of waiting.

Within an urban setting the lights should be linked so that once you pass through one green and keep to a given speed you should then pass through all the lights you then get to.

That definitely doesn't happen on the inner ring road in Horsham (aka Albion Way). If I drive through Horsham from the west on the A281, there are four sets of traffic lights on that stretch of road where it bypasses the town centre. It is normal to get three or four consecutive red lights, and often when I get through one junction, the light will go amber-red on approach to the next one. It is as if it has been set up so the primary through route has the lowest priority.

 

[miklcct]

if the trains are off they just go a different day instead. Meetings are rearranged, shopping trips you go next week, and perhaps you just don't bother with the Christmas social at all.

How about events that can't be rescheduled? For example, getting into London to race in a national-level sport event?

 

[Starmill]

To an extent. As I said, few people will be willing to drive into central London, Manchester etc. They'll just reschedule or cancel their trip.

Traffic in Greater Manchester this week has been very, very low despite the strikes. Much lower than the usual. My bus journey on Tuesday was very frustrating because we were waiting time at every timing point as the traffic was totally free-flowing. No doubt largely down to office workers who don't want to get out of bed yet!

 

[al78]

The 12p fuel duty rise will get people off the roads.

And probably push people on modest incomes for whom the car is the only practical way to get to work over the edge. Here lies the problem with trying to punish people in the wallet. The rich are the greatest consumers of resources and the greatest polluters but they can easily absorb any hike in costs from tax rises. Poor people barely managing to get by at the moment can't. If you want to discourage car usage, you need a method which discourages everyone, not just a relatively powerless easy target.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

A load of twaddle by Autotrader. Majority of people have a car anyhow and make most journeys by car the railway will always have its place on intercity routes and urban areas. The issue at hand is between govt and unions they are going to make rail less appealing for years leading to poor services holding back recovery. Decades ago by now the senior leaders would have all put their names to a letter to The Times point out to both sides the long run damage they are both doing to the prospects for the industry and thus its workforce but they all just happy to keep stum and take the big salaries now.

 

[Thirteen]

Slightly off topic but Jeremy Vine Extra is debating about the railways, it's making my head hurt.

 

[al78]

To an extent. As I said, few people will be willing to drive into central London, Manchester etc. They'll just reschedule or cancel their trip.

In and around Manchester the local authorities have made driving much less pleasant through reallocating road space to buses and cyclists, which is arguably a good thing but not good for those who don't have an alternative to the car. I suspect one reason for the UK's lack of productivity in recent years is because the transport networks have deteriorated through a combination of increased traffic congestion and deteriorating reliability of public transport. Transport routes are the arteries of an economy like the UK's, and using that analogy the UK's economy is on its way to heart disease.

 

[Bantamzen]

Which brings up a point which I have raised before, that I suspect that there are those in government who are relishing the current round of disputes, without getting into the rights and wrongs of the disputes, the DfT are acting behind the scenes to limit TOCs with respect to settling. Then as passengers continue to avoid the railway they can say that the railways are finished 'as no one uses them anymore' and pull the subsidies, and a topic which has been a political banana skin for various governments of both parties is confined to the waste basket, much relief in political circles.

I would not want my livelihood to depend on the rail industry in the UK in any way as things stand, either as a direct employee, or in any of the many supporting industries. What would a zero/minimal subsidy railway look like, just the main lines out of London and not much else I suspect.

There's little doubt that some inside the corridors of power would see this dispute as an opportunity for political or financial gain. Its pretty much how all disputes in the public sector run.