Would that be the case, however if it had a more 'normal' service level? I don't know the line that well or the towns along it, but if it had, say, a two hourly service every day of the week, would the passenger numbers be able to sustain that? In other words, is it 'obscure' through accident, or through inherently low usage?
I like to look at the bus services in an area to assess whether there’s much demand/ where the demand is to
If a flow can’t sustain a commercial minibus every couple of hours then a heavy rail service seems over the top
Looking at Brigg (on BusTimes.org , so it’s hard to know what’s commercial/ tendered) there’s an hourly bus to Scunthorpe, five a day to Humberside Airport, a “demand responsive” service to local villages, a town service a couple of days a week, every couple of hours to Kirkton in Lindsay, a weekly service from Market Rasen to Scunthorpe…
… but none of that to anywhere that a train service would presumably serve - no buses to Grimsby/ Cleethorpes/ Gainsborough/ Retford or beyond, from what I can see (happy to be corrected, of course)
Looking at the roads, the fast route is east-west, taking trucks from the docks to distribution centres (and Sheffielders to the seaside at Cleethorpes!)
So what trains would you run?
I’ve seen suggestions that we should have through trains from the Barton branch, but that line struggles with a train to the more obvious destination of Grimsby, so I doubt there’s going to be much demand there
Which presumably leaves services from Sheffield/ Worksop/ Retford / Gainsborough to Grimsby/ Cleethorpes?
Arriva introduced an hourly Sheffield/ Worksop/ Retford / Gainsborough stopper, which would have been something you could extend every couple of hours to Grimsby, but the Government (aka DOR) scrapped that and slowed the Lincoln service down by making it stop everywhere west of Worksop
But if there’s no such hourly service terminating at Gainsborough now (and, it’s not coming back AFAIK), any Sheffield to Grimsby service would be a long way any require a lot of scarce DMUs to run regularly enough to provide a “normal” service level like bi-hourly (because if it only ran every four hours then we’d get complaints that the inevitably low passenger numbers weren’t fair because “it’d have more passengers if there were more trains” etc)
And it’s never going to be faster from Sheffield to Grimsby than the existing hourly Doncaster service (trains via Brigg may be overtaken given the slower route)
So maybe you only run a shuttle from Grimsby to Retford (because the Lincoln train doesn’t serve the same station in Gainsborough)? But that’s not a big destination, other than for changing into the ECML. And Grimsby already has London connections at Doncaster/ Lincoln/ Newark
Ultimately, Brigg is a place with a population of just five thousand. Someone will feel the need to point out that there’s a wider area that might drive (villages in the hinterland etc), but then those people could equally drive to Barnetby/ Scunthorpe, and those other trains stations will always get a better service than Brigg (better frequency/ fast trains to Doncaster/ Sheffield etc), so why would you drive to Brigg unless you wanted a train to Gainsborough/ Retford, and how Many people would that be?
Or, to put it another way, look at Breich. It had one DMU (generally a class 156) a day to Edinburgh, and essentially one other a day too. But then it has loads of money spent on it, the line was upgraded, it now has an hourly modern EMU (Class 385) to Edinburgh and Glasgow from about half six in the morning until about eleven at night, it’s got the perfectly decent service that people defending it from closure had demanded…
…And it’s got a whopping FIVE departing passengers a day. Statistically that’s a big increase, sure, but spending all the money upgrading the station and slowing down dozens of three coach EMUs a day (inconveniencing other passengers given the time taken to show down/ dwell/ get back to line speed) … All for five people a day? Seems like overkill to me
I’ve argued in the past that sometimes a line closing is the best thing to ever happen to it because its supporters will paint a picture of it as this hugely important route that would be massively busy today if only Beeching/ Marples/ FBI etc hasn’t conspired to close it. So Skipton to Lancaster gets a Sprinter every couple of hours and underwhelming passenger numbers, Skipton to Carlisle gets a Sprinter every couple of hours and underwhelming passenger numbers.., but the SELRAP campaign to reopen Skipton to Colne suggests that their favourite line would sustain three EMUs an hour with through services to Manchester Airport/ Hull/ Liverpool etc - a closed line has unlimited potential whereas an open line will never match that
It feels like the same is true of Breich - when there was one train a day you could always claim that it’d have tens of thousands of passengers a year from a wide railhead “if only” it had a decent service, it’d be unfair to close it without giving it a chance, we need a trial where it has at least an hourly service etc etc… but if you give that and only four more people start using it then do people finally accept that it only had that token service for years because it had such a rubbish business case (and should probably be closed)? Or do they demand it gets a half hourly train instead? Find new excuses?
If you do find a couple of spare DMUs then I think I’d be off much more use too North Lincolnshire to extend some of the Doncaster - Scunthorpe stoppers through to Barnetby/ Grimsby/ Cleethorpes, doubling the frequency east of Scunthorpe. But it’s always going to be an area of fairly low population density, where heavy rail will struggle