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Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

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Yew

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In the current situation, I'd expect any increase in demand to primarily cause more inflation.
But our current inflation is not causes by an excess of demand for consumer goods, but from the lack of affordable hydrocarbons as we've overelied on Russian imports.

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Which is based on the assumption that the public sector wages aren't spent of things that allow the private sector to be more productive and increase indirect returns through taxes on business.
Indeed, if your employee is out sick longer than needed because Nursing has became so unattractive a profession that we have tens of thousands of vacancies, that's taxable value that could be being created for your business.
 
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brad465

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Not really. It’s a very soft estimate on what they think they might have been able to collect based on historical averages. HMRC does chase people for past taxes due, they may well be able to recoup the money in the future now their staff aren’t working on the pandemic.

Even if the estimate is accurate, it’s hardly the whole story. £9bn is about 1% of government spending in a year. It’s also a one-off figure, whereas public sector salaries are recurring and rises usually compounding.
Even so, perception matters, and when finances are tight there has to be a case of all being in it together, which means chasing everything the coffers are entitled to, and if not possible some very credible analysis as to why must be provided.
 

brad465

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David Cameron is off to lecture at a University in Abu Dhabi:


David Cameron, Britain’s former prime minister, is returning to public life with a new job teaching politics at a university in the Gulf state of Abu Dhabi.
 

WizCastro197

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David Cameron is off to lecture at a University in Abu Dhabi:

Welll, it isn't as if he doing anything too bad. As long as he enjoys what he is doing, and isn't only in it for the money, there isn't enough to criticise upon. Seems only for three weeks however.
 

Typhoon

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Welll, it isn't as if he doing anything too bad. As long as he enjoys what he is doing, and isn't only in it for the money, there isn't enough to criticise upon. Seems only for three weeks however.
Provided he steers clear of discussing 'financial services' and 'lobbying'.
 

nw1

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Meanwhile the latest repulsive and revolting behaviour by a senior Tory (warning: tweet contains mildly offensive language):


If I were a nursing union official I'd be taking immediate action against Barclay personally for slander/libel. "Conscious choice to inflict harm on patients"? What is his evidence for that? Or is it just because he knows he and his kind are at least partially responsible for the problems in the NHS and wants to pass the blame to others, something the Tories are all too good at?

What qualifications does Barclay have to be health secretary anyway? Ex-army, solicitor, and involved in implementing Brexit. Yeah, right. Suitable qualifications for his position. Definitely. Just like that idiot Hunt.

This will do nothing other than increase anger towards the government and, after making such an unsubstantiated comment, Barclay needs to resign immediately. Just another well-off, well-connected, reactionary Tory who refuses to understand the reasons why people strike.
 
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Gloster

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I think that the government is now so out of touch and arrogant, partly from having been in power for so long, that it feels that the nurses and other health workers will be easy to defeat, after which they can roll up all the other unions. I somehow feel that they may have misjudged things: they have probably been getting all their feedback from the Hate Mail, The Daily T*t and GBNews.

Of course, it might be a deliberate plan to wreck everything so that Labour will be faced with the impossible job of untangling the mess and be unable to do anything positive in the next five years: the Conservatives can then present themselves as new, fresh and dynamic. Alternatively, it is a distraction tactic to turn our attention away from the results of Brexit, dodgy Covid/PPE contracts and filling their cronies pockets on the way out.
 

nw1

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I think that the government is now so out of touch and arrogant, partly from having been in power for so long, that it feels that the nurses and other health workers will be easy to defeat, after which they can roll up all the other unions. I somehow feel that they may have misjudged things: they have probably been getting all their feedback from the Hate Mail, The Daily T*t and GBNews.

Of course, it might be a deliberate plan to wreck everything so that Labour will be faced with the impossible job of untangling the mess and be unable to do anything positive in the next five years: the Conservatives can then present themselves as new, fresh and dynamic. Alternatively, it is a distraction tactic to turn our attention away from the results of Brexit, dodgy Covid/PPE contracts and filling their cronies pockets on the way out.

That really would not surprise me in the least. Yes, my opinion of the Conservative Party is now that low, that I believe that is a plausible theory. More plausible than the "nurses deliberately harming patients" theory, at least.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Meanwhile the latest repulsive and revolting behaviour by a senior Tory (warning: tweet contains mildly offensive language):


Hmmm. Are you sure you're not just gratuitously finding things offensive because it's a Tory saying them?

Look at it rationally: The unions have taken action - organising strikes, and there is no doubt that that action will inflict harm on patients. That is pretty much indisputable, and to that extent, what Steve Barclay has said is correct. It seems pretty strange to me to describe someone stating something that is broadly factually correct as 'repulsive and revolting behaviour'.

The only thing that's questionable about Steve Barclay's comment is that the way he's said it seems to imply that the harm might be intended. It clearly isn't - the unions are taking strike action in order to try to get higher pay, and the fact that patients are likely to be harmed is - in effect - collateral damage that the unions probably don't intend but feel they can't avoid. To that extent I think Steve Barclay should have phrased his remarks better. But I don't think I'd take offense at them, I'd simply disagree with the way he said it.

By the way, I find it amusing that you've apparently taken offence at a Tory MP making a generally factually correct (but badly expressed) statement, but you haven't complained about the text of the tweet you've linked to: "Steve Barclay is a vicious *******". Personally, I'd have thought that describing anyone (of whatever political hue) as a 'vicious *******' is far more offensive, and generally toxic to politics.

(EDIT: And I see railforums has auto-blanked out the text of that tweet too!)
 
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Yew

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Hmmm. Are you sure you're not just gratuitously finding things offensive because it's a Tory saying them?

Look at it rationally: The unions have taken action - organising strikes, and there is no doubt that that action will inflict harm on patients. That is pretty much indisputable, and to that extent, what Steve Barclay has said is correct. It seems pretty strange to me to describe someone stating something that is broadly factually correct as 'repulsive and revolting behaviour'.


"inflicting harm" makes it sound like they're wandering around wards with scalpels
 

Arglwydd Golau

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It clearly isn't - the unions are taking strike action in order to try to get higher pay,
....and you have chosen to ignore that the unions are not solely striking for higher pay, they are also highlighting the damage that twelve years of a Tory government have done to the NHS! (but I don't suppose that is mentioned in the Mail and Telegraph)
 

nw1

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Hmmm. Are you sure you're not just gratuitously finding things offensive because it's a Tory saying them?

Look at it rationally: The unions have taken action - organising strikes, and there is no doubt that that action will inflict harm on patients. That is pretty much indisputable, and to that extent, what Steve Barclay has said is correct. It seems pretty strange to me to describe someone stating something that is broadly factually correct as 'repulsive and revolting behaviour'.

The only thing that's questionable about Steve Barclay's comment is that the way he's said it seems to imply that the harm might be intended. It clearly isn't - the unions are taking strike action in order to try to get higher pay, and the fact that patients are likely to be harmed is - in effect - collateral damage that the unions probably don't intend but feel they can't avoid. To that extent I think Steve Barclay should have phrased his remarks better. But I don't think I'd take offense at them, I'd simply disagree with the way he said it.
But he did imply that the unions were deliberately trying to cause harm. Are you sure you are not trying to defend Barclay just because he is a Tory? ;)
By the way, I find it amusing that you've apparently taken offence at a Tory MP making a generally factually correct (but badly expressed) statement, but you haven't complained about the text of the tweet you've linked to: "Steve Barclay is a vicious *******". Personally, I'd have thought that describing anyone (of whatever political hue) as a 'vicious *******' is far more offensive, and generally toxic to politics.
And therein is the problem with the whole Conservative attitude. Being called names by some random person on Twitter when you say or do something outrageous is worse than making unsubstantiated allegations about the nursing unions, or a whole raft of other things that the Conservative Party has done throughout most of the past 43 years. It's always been their way. Everything is always someone else's fault, and it's never, ever the fault of the Tories. They are experts at twisting things to make it look like someone else is to blame.

Maybe if Barclay doesn't want to be called a vicious so-and-so, he should stop acting like one. And maybe the whole party should reflect on the fact that so many of us dislike them with a passion. There must be a reason for that, and if they were a more neutral and centrist party I suspect they would not invoke such a negative reaction.
 
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jon0844

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The Republicans managed to convince a lot of people that US healthcare workers were literally murdering people to get Covid payments, so I guess it's a strategy the Tories think will work. Make out the people who work to save lives are in fact evil, greedy and uncaring.

They've massively misread the room on this.
 

Gloster

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The front page of today’s Daily Telegraph, a paper well-known for not having the slightest connection with and sympathy for the Conservative Party, had as its front page today, ‘Unions have made conscious choice to inflict harm on patients, says Barclay.’ Of course, I would be utterly amazed if Barclay’s latest quote were to appear on the front page of at least one of the Hate Mail, Daily T*t or Torygraph tomorrow. Together with a story of how sweet old grandmother subs-think-of-a-name had to get a taxi to hospital to have her bruised finger treated, only to have it set on fire by a mob of screaming, axe-wielding, hate-filled nurses egged on by Keir Starmer.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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But he did imply that the unions were deliberately trying to cause harm.

But it's not so far off. The unions are after all knowingly inflicting harm on patients as a side-effect of a pay demand which they must surely realise is unaffordable. To that extent they are accepting and going along with that harm to patients, even though that's not their aim.

Are you sure you are not trying to defend Barclay just because he is a Tory? ;)

Haha touche. But yes I'm fairly sure I'm not - and I did after all somewhat criticise him myself in my own post. The way I see it, I was calling out comments in your post that were totally over the top.

Maybe if Barclay doesn't want to be called a vicious so-and-so, he should stop acting like one.

But he isn't acting like one (unless there's something else really bad that he's done that I'm unaware of) - certainly there is nothing in the remarks you quoted that would justify labelling him as 'vicious'. You're basically just making that up.
 

nw1

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But it's not so far off. The unions are after all knowingly inflicting harm on patients as a side-effect of a pay demand which they must surely realise is unaffordable. To that extent they are accepting and going along with that harm to patients, even though that's not their aim.
Is it unaffordable or is that Tory propaganda?
It was perfectly affordable, apparently, for Truss and Kwarteng to offer tax cuts to the rich. Because bankers are the Tories' "kind of people" and public sector workers are not.
Haha touche. But yes I'm fairly sure I'm not - and I did after all somewhat criticise him myself in my own post. The way I see it, I was calling out comments in your post that were totally over the top.
Or rather, not being afraid to speak out robustly against the Tories.
But he isn't acting like one (unless there's something else really bad that he's done that I'm unaware of) - certainly there is nothing in the remarks you quoted that would justify labelling him as 'vicious'. You're basically just making that up.

To quote from @Gloster above:

"‘Unions have made conscious choice to inflict harm on patients, says Barclay."

I'm not making that up, that's basically straight from the Torygraph!
 

DynamicSpirit

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It was perfectly affordable, apparently, for Truss and Kwarteng to offer tax cuts to the rich. Because bankers are the Tories' "kind of people" and public sector workers are not.

No, that was never affordable either. That was Truss and Kwarteng acting really stupidly - which of course is partly why they ended up kicked out and the Government reversed course on that.

"‘Unions have made conscious choice to inflict harm on patients, says Barclay."

I'm not making that up, that's basically straight from the Torygraph!

So? What aspect of that headline is factually incorrect? The unions have indeed - in this case - made a conscious choice to do something that inflicts harm on patients (even though that's not their ultimate aim). Is there something wrong with pointing that out?

Once again you seem - for reasons that I cannot fathom - to be taking objection to correct statements being made.
 

Gloster

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"‘Unions have made conscious choice to inflict harm on patients, says Barclay."

I'm not making that up, that's basically straight from the Torygraph!

It is not basically from the Daily Telegraph: it is a direct quote of the main headline on the image of the Telegraph’s front page to be found on the ‘ Wednesday’s national newspaper front pages ‘ page on the news.sky.com website.
 

nw1

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No, that was never affordable either. That was Truss and Kwarteng acting really stupidly - which of course is partly why they ended up kicked out and the Government reversed course on that.



So? What aspect of that headline is factually incorrect? The unions have indeed - in this case - made a conscious choice to do something that inflicts harm on patients (even though that's not their ultimate aim). Is there something wrong with pointing that out?

Once again you seem - for reasons that I cannot fathom - to be taking objection to correct statements being made.
The quote makes it sound that the unions deliberately want to cause harm. Because, in my opinion, Barclay wants to divert blame away from him and his government. Classic government tactic.

I know that I am not the only one to believe that!

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It is not basically from the Daily Telegraph: it is a direct quote of the main headline on the image of the Telegraph’s front page to be found on the ‘ Wednesday’s national newspaper front pages ‘ page on the news.sky.com website.

Yes, that's essentially what I meant.
 

43096

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The quote makes it sound that the unions deliberately want to cause harm. Because, in my opinion, Barclay wants to divert blame away from him and his government. Classic government tactic.
And of course the unions never do anything like that, do they?
 

brad465

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But it's not so far off. The unions are after all knowingly inflicting harm on patients as a side-effect of a pay demand which they must surely realise is unaffordable. To that extent they are accepting and going along with that harm to patients, even though that's not their aim.
Almost all negotiations see sides have unrealistic opening positions, but a compromise is often met that becomes acceptable. The problem is we're not getting any serious negotiations here, so no such compromise is likely until then. For example, Barristers demanded a 25% pay rise when they went on strike, but settled for 15%.
 

jon0844

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For our economy to grow, especially with Brexit doing everything to stifle things, people not only need enough money to live but also to have some disposable income to support pubs, restaurants, hotels, theatres, cinemas, leisure and retail facilities. If they don't, they'll go out of business and unemployment will rocket.

Surely anyone with a brain can work that out, especially as most working class and middle class people are going to put that money back into the economy, not sit on it.

All these Tory MPs suggesting that a nurse can cut out luxuries and afford to live seem to forget that. The classic tropes about not going to Costa, or subscribing to Netflix, or buying smashed avocado, all ignore the fact that these businesses need our money. Okay, so maybe Netflix isn't a great example (but it often gets cited) but replace that with any other UK based business.

Are the Tories saying nobody should have any money to spend besides giving money to their landlord/bank, and paying as little as possible on essentials food, to live?
 

The Ham

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For our economy to grow, especially with Brexit doing everything to stifle things, people not only need enough money to live but also to have some disposable income to support pubs, restaurants, hotels, theatres, cinemas, leisure and retail facilities. If they don't, they'll go out of business and unemployment will rocket.

Surely anyone with a brain can work that out, especially as most working class and middle class people are going to put that money back into the economy, not sit on it.

All these Tory MPs suggesting that a nurse can cut out luxuries and afford to live seem to forget that. The classic tropes about not going to Costa, or subscribing to Netflix, or buying smashed avocado, all ignore the fact that these businesses need our money. Okay, so maybe Netflix isn't a great example (but it often gets cited) but replace that with any other UK based business.

Are the Tories saying nobody should have any money to spend besides giving money to their landlord/bank, and paying as little as possible on essentials food, to live?

Indeed, especially given that about 40% would come straight back to the government in PAYE taxes, however the other 60% would be going into the economy through paying for life, which then pays others (more taxes and more boost to the economy) which then....

Whilst it may not earn back all the money through taxes, it may also boost the economy so that there's less need for benefits (especially in work benefits) and so the net cost to the government may actually be positive.

Whilst there's always a risk paying someone more may increase inflation, currently the big driver of inflation is fuel costs from external factors. As such ensuring that pay isn't eroding in real terms or is only increasing a small amount above that point isn't likely to cause those issues.

Many of the very wealthy are only wealthy because they've earned money from selling stuff to lots of people, if those lots of people stop being able to buy those things, then those very wealthy people aren't going to be as well off.

Likewise those who have buy to let properties, if fewer people can afford rent then they're not going to be able to rent those properties out.

If generational houses (so parents, kids, grand kids) become more the norm (with built in childcare, sharing the household costs, more to share the household tasks, etc.) there's the potential that buy to let could become harder to maintain (especially with the new rules, such as EPC rates of C or higher needed to rent a property, making renting out harder to turn a profit when mortgage interest rates increasing pushing costs up).

The government is right we need a high wage economy, the problem is when they comes to what they are willing to pay that doesn't appear to be something that they are willing to do. Guess what that does, it means staff leave for other roles. As such either you pay them more now or you pay a lot more later to try and tempt them back. Ask the pubs and restaurants how well that worked out for them at the end of the furlough scheme (it didn't go well).
 

SuspectUsual

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Whilst there's always a risk paying someone more may increase inflation

That’s a big risk for “normal” businesses, where they have to increase selling prices to offset increased costs, but for something essentially Government funded like the NHS that isn’t really the case, surely? Or am I being stupid again and/or overly simplifying it?
 

The Ham

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In Q2 of 22/23 there were 133,000 job vacancies in the NHS (9.7% of total NHS jobs), this compares with Q2 of 18/19 where it was 105,000 (8.9% of total NHS jobs), however it reached a low of 6.9% of total NHS jobs between the two in Q2 of 20/21 (there were lower rates, but I've only compared Q2 data).

With talk of nurses needing to use foodbanks, long hours, low moral, etc. it's hardly going to be an attractive proposition to many young people as a career of choice. Making it harder to keep staffing levels high enough to offer a good service.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Indeed, especially given that about 40% would come straight back to the government in PAYE taxes, however the other 60% would be going into the economy through paying for life, which then pays others (more taxes and more boost to the economy) which then....

That looks to me suspiciously like you're trying to argue that the Government should just spend money with abandon on the (rather dubious) basis that it all helps the economy. A couple of months ago, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng provided us with ample demonstration of how well that approach doesn't work 8-)

The reality is that when the Government spends money, it usually gets some of that spending back in the form of increased tax receipts, but it doesn't get it all back. It still leaves a hole in public finances which ultimately causes economic harm. The Government cannot, on the whole, just spend money without trying to balance the books.
 

dosxuk

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Indeed, especially given that about 40% would come straight back to the government in PAYE taxes, however the other 60% would be going into the economy through paying for life, which then pays others (more taxes and more boost to the economy) which then....
Are you really suggesting that everybody currently arguing for a pay rise, is intending to spend every penny of that pay rise immediately?

I'd argue far more people are concerned that they need to increase / start their savings, and the effect of inflation / interest rate hikes on their normal spending. None of those people will be putting any increased wages back into the economy any time soon.
 

edwin_m

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Are you really suggesting that everybody currently arguing for a pay rise, is intending to spend every penny of that pay rise immediately?

I'd argue far more people are concerned that they need to increase / start their savings, and the effect of inflation / interest rate hikes on their normal spending. None of those people will be putting any increased wages back into the economy any time soon.
Getting more people saving helps the government too, as they'd be less likely to be destitute and on benefits if they aren't able to work.
 
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