Can and should Network Rail postpone the WCML engineering works over Christmas?

[philosopher]

On Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th December Network Rail have engineering works that will close the West Coast Main Line between Milton Keynes and Rugby:

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Tuesday and Wednesday only:

No services will operate between Milton Keynes Central and Rugby. No long distance services will run to / from London Euston.

Buses will replace trains between Rugby / Northampton and Milton Keynes Central, with extended journey times.

In normal circumstances, this is not much of an issue as passengers to / from Birmingham would typically use Chiltern, while those to / from Manchester and Liverpool who didn’t want part of their journey on a bus would use either Crosscountry and change onto Chiltern at Banbury or Birmingham or travel to Sheffield and then onto EMR. However on the 27th and 28th Chiltern are not running trains past Banbury due to the industrial action:

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Tuesday 27 December and Wednesday 28 December:

A VERY LIMITED timetable will be in operation:

1 train per hour London Marylebone - stations to Oxford Parkway (and vice-versa).
1 train per hour London Marylebone - stations to Banbury (and vice versa).
1 train per hour London Marylebone - stations to Aylesbury (via High Wycombe, and vice-versa).
2 buses per hour Aylesbury Vale Parkway - stations to Amersham (and vice-versa). You can use London Underground between Amersham and Baker Street.

Please note there will be NO Chiltern Railways service North of Banbury, nor to/from Oxford.
Start of service will generally be between 08.00 and 09.00, and end of service will generally be between 21.00 and 22.00.

This means there will be no direct trains between London and almost all the West Midlands. Passengers to / from the Midlands to London likely will not be unable to use Crosscountry services from New Street to Banbury as they will be full of passengers from further north. Also, the one train an hour from Banbury is unlikely to accommodate the passenger volume from further north. While there will be replacement buses from Rugby to Milton Keynes, there does seem a big risk they will not be able to accommodate all the demand that the lack of Chiltern services will result in. So we may get very lengthy waits for buses at Rugby and Milton Keynes. If there are not enough buses there is a risk that some passengers may get stranded overnight.

Therefore, to reduce the risk of severe overcrowding and passengers potentially not being able to complete their journey on these dates, can and should Network Rail postpone the engineering works on the WCML between Rugby and Milton Keynes? If it is too late to postpone, what could be done to mitigate this issue?

Mods, feel free to move this if I have put in the wrong section.

 

[The Planner]

The IA has caused the issue, when the work was planned all the operators were in agreement this is when it should be done. It is the replacement of a bridge at Wolverton with the crane hire etc that entails and needs all lines. If you remove it then its unlikely to be fitted in again before Xmas 23. If its not done before Easter 24, the funding doesn't carry over into CP7 and another job would have to be lost (which is going to put a lot of work on a risk list). Only way to mitigate it is to try and have enough RRBs or say do not travel I suspect.

 

[zwk500]

Therefore, to reduce the risk of severe overcrowding and passengers potentially not being able to complete their journey on these dates, can and should Network Rail postpone the engineering works on the WCML between Rugby and Milton Keynes?

Can they? No, it'd effectively be cancelling and starting the procees again. Should they? No. Delaying an all line block on the WCML is a major thing to replan, however inconvenient for passengers.

If it is too late to postpone, what could be done to mitigate this issue?

More buses.

 

[fandroid]

They should be able to reliably source a lot of buses, as there are no school contracts operating then. The only concern is that WCML passengers might try to maximise their time on trains and expect buses at Banbury, say, when the lack of trains there is down to industrial action, rather than engineering works.

 

[philosopher]

They should be able to reliably source a lot of buses, as there are no school contracts operating then. The only concern is that WCML passengers might try to maximise their time on trains and expect buses at Banbury, say, when the lack of trains there is down to industrial action, rather than engineering works.

If they can source enough buses, then the main risk I think would be the engineering works overrunning to the 29th as I doubt they could source enough buses for the 29th at short notice.

 

[The Planner]

If they can source enough buses, then the main risk I think would be the engineering works overrunning to the 29th as I doubt they could source enough buses for the 29th at short notice.

There is contingency built in via the DWWP (delivering work within possessions) process. Some say too much. Though with a bridge job its not as though you can stop half way through.

 

[DarloRich]

Therefore, to reduce the risk of severe overcrowding and passengers potentially not being able to complete their journey on these dates, can and should Network Rail postpone the engineering works on the WCML between Rugby and Milton Keynes

Can: yes, anything CAN be done.

Should: No. It is an important bridge replacement that cant be easily re planned for a later date without causing more disruption to passengers. it is also FAR to late in the day to cancel a big job like this without incurring massive expense.

If it is too late to postpone, what could be done to mitigate this issue?

Mitigate: More buses if possible and an only travel if absolutely necessary message. Solving the IA issues would help also.

 

[philosopher]

Chiltern on their website have said passengers can travel on CrossCountry to Banbury and change onto Chiltern

Chiltern Railways statement on the impact of industrial action | Chiltern Railways

We would like to sincerely apologise to our customers that our train service will be severely impacted throughout the four-week period of industrial action by the RMT union. This is not the service you have come to expect from Chiltern Railways, and we apologise for the impact this will have on...

www.chilternrailways.co.uk

The engineering work is still planned to go ahead and as a result there will be no direct rail service between Birmingham and London on 27th and 28th December and 1st January. Birmingham customers will be able to travel using CrossCountry to Banbury and then transfer to Chiltern services and vice-versa. However, trains are expected to be extremely busy during this engineering work period and so we advise customers to only travel if absolutely essential on these dates.

I do wonder if Chiltern would be better advising passengers to travel to Rugby / Northampton and onto replacement buses to Milton Keynes as this route I suspect would have more capacity. The one train an hour from Birmingham to Banbury could well be full with passengers from further north and may be unable to accommodate these passengers.

 

[cslusarc]

Why isn't Avanti diverting its trains via the Chiltern Main Line like Virgin?

 

[al green]

It is the replacement of a bridge at Wolverton with the crane hire etc that entails and needs all lines.

What bridge is being replaced at Wolverton? Nothing in local media about it so far.

 

[The Planner]

Why isn't Avanti diverting its trains via the Chiltern Main Line like Virgin?

No route knowledge. The other issue is that if only one 15 car 221 is showing in journey planner direct to Euston, everyone just tries to get on it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2022 ==

What bridge is being replaced at Wolverton? Nothing in local media about it so far.

Canal bridge, on the slows I think.

 

[al green]

Canal bridge, on the slows I think.

I don't think so. I walked under it a few days ago. No sign of any preparation works and no closure notices for the canal or the towpath.

 

[philosopher]

So it gets worse, London Northwestern Railway are not running any trains on either the 27th or 28th December due to yet more industrial action. This means passengers from Birmingham to London will have to use the one Avanti train an hour from Birmingham to Rugby that starts either in Liverpool or Preston on the 28th.

Industrial Action

www.londonnorthwesternrailway.co.uk

As a result of additional industrial action by the TSSA union, London Northwestern Railway services will not operate on Wednesday 28 and Thursday 29 December 2022.

You can run as many buses as you want between Rugby and Milton Keynes, but with only one train an hour from Birmingham to Rugby I suspect pretty much every train going south to Rugby or Banbury from Birmingham New Street will be crush loaded and passengers will end up waiting hours to board trains at New Street on the 28th.

I suspect the media will be having a field day!

 

[Bletchleyite]

What action is that on LNR? That is, which TSSA members?

 

[Ibex]

What action is that on LNR? That is, which TSSA members?

Here's the TSSA press release Link

"TSSA members at West Midlands Trains include Control staff, Duty Train Crew Managers, Driver Managers, Senior Conductor Managers (on board staff responsible for guards), station management and duty station management, as well as HQ staff at Birmingham Edmund St working on planning, heads of dept etc.

TSSA members work out of Birmingham commuter stations, including: Birmingham New Street, Birmingham Snow Hill, Bletchley, Coventry, Kidderminster, Rugby, Northampton, Tamworth, Wolverhampton, Walsall. Control staff work from the Saltley (Birmingham) centre and Rugby."

Its also noon to noon rather than the midnight to midnight approach which appears to be why it takes out two days.