Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[brad465]

According to Wikipedia’s list Sunak is now equal to Truss by length of tenure as PM. So he can call an election tomorrow and not have that hanging over him. (If only!)

I'd expect him to want a bit more time than that, maybe over a year, which would exceed Douglas-Home. That said he does seem to be struggling to do anything, he's already had 2 Tory party rebellions force him to back down on housing targets and onshore wind farms, and I can see at least one more before April, that being the potential 12p increase in fuel duty forecast by the OBR.

 

[najaB]

I'd expect him to want a bit more time than that, maybe over a year, which would exceed Douglas-Home.

There's almost zero chance of an election before the end of summer next year, and I can't see any benefit in trying to hold on through winter next year. Much better (for the Tories) to lose the election early, before the real crunch comes, and be in a position to say "It wouldn't have been as bad as it currently is if we had been in power instead of them".

 

[david1212]

To cut the £5.6m per day currently being spent housing ( Channel migrants ) Asylum seakers in hotels the government is planning to use holiday camps instead

Channel migrants are set to be housed in holiday parks in a bid to slash the eye-watering £5.6million a day spent on hotels. The Government is expected to announce plans to use half a dozen disused and off-season camps.

Channel migrants to be housed in empty holiday parks

More than 44,000 people have made the perilous journey from France so far this year.

www.express.co.uk

However aside from the camp owners / operators potentially being unhappy many sites are now open all year. Are there any permanently closed sites in a condition fit for use?

This week several firms told the Sunday Express that they had not yet been approached, but pointed out that they no longer had 'off seasons' - with one accusing the Home Office of “clinging to outdated concepts” of the industry.

Holiday camps blast Home Office plan to house asylum seekers on sites

HOME Office proposals to use off-season holiday camps and caravan parks to process asylum seekers may hit the buffers - because most now operate all year round.

www.express.co.uk

Regarding progess with Dominic Raab's Bill of Rights

The Prime Minister told Mr Raab that the Bill would be "deprioritised" in order to address the Channel issue faster, amid concerns that the Bill of Rights as a whole would take too long and could be heavily amended.

Powers to crackdown on migrants fast tracked as Bill of Rights shelved

The Prime Minister told Mr Raab that the Bill would be "deprioritised" in order to address the Channel issue faster, amid concerns that the Bill of Rights as a whole would take too long and could be heavily amended.

www.express.co.uk

 

[brad465]

Tory MP Adam Afriyie has been declared bankrupt, which could lead to a by-election in Windsor:

Conservative MP Adam Afriyie declared bankrupt due to £1.7m debt

A court heard Mr Afriyie, who represents Windsor, owed around £1m to HMRC and £700,000 to Barclays bank.

www.bbc.co.uk

Conservative MP Adam Afriyie has been made bankrupt after a judge heard he owed around £1m to HMRC and £700,000 to Barclays bank.
A bankruptcy order was made against the MP at a hearing in the Insolvency and Companies Court on Tuesday.
The Windsor MP had already announced he would be standing down at the next election, saying with Brexit "concluded" it was the "right time".
Responding to the court order, Mr Afriyie said it was "a stressful time".
"This has been ongoing for many years following business failures some time ago.
"I am ultimately responsibly for some of the bank borrowing through personal guarantee. I've been trying to sell our home and downsize for some time, but it's a tough market."It'll be tough for a while, but I'm far from the only person in a difficult position, and I will continue to do my best to support my constituents until the next general election when I'll be standing down."
Mr Arfiyie had asked for the court proceedings to be adjourned until March arguing he would be able to pay off his debts by selling off a property.

However, HMRC and Barclays opposed pausing the case, with the bank's barrister arguing that the company had "lost patience" adding: "We have seen no credible evidence that the property will be sold any time soon."
Judge Nicolas Briggs agreed concluding: "There have been six hearings already of this matter so time really has run out.
"I shall make a bankruptcy order. It seems to me there is no evidence of there being any reasonable prospects of paying debts in full."
Windsor Conservative Association have declined to comment.
Mr Afriyie has represented the Berkshire constituency since 2005 and during that time has served as a shadow science minister and a trade envoy to Ghana.
He stood down from that role when the UK-Ghana bilateral trade deal was secured.
In 2013, there were reports MPs were working on a campaign to replace David Cameron with Mr Afriyie as Conservative leader, if the party lost the 2015 election.
However, Mr Afriyie insisted at the time there was "no truth" to the rumours and that he was "100% supportive" of Mr Cameron.

 

[birchesgreen]

However aside from the camp owners / operators potentially being unhappy many sites are now open all year. Are there any permanently closed sites in a condition fit for use?

This is the government, they don't make announcements without carefully planning and working out if something is feasible first.

 

[jfollows]

Tory MP Adam Afriyie has been declared bankrupt, which could lead to a by-election in Windsor:

Conservative MP Adam Afriyie declared bankrupt due to £1.7m debt

A court heard Mr Afriyie, who represents Windsor, owed around £1m to HMRC and £700,000 to Barclays bank.

www.bbc.co.uk

Adam Afriyie had previously stated that he wouldn't stand for re-election at the next general election, and has today confirmed that he intends to remain as an MP until then. It does not appear that his bankruptcy requires him to step down, and I wouldn't expect that his party - at the national level - wants him to either. Whether or not his local party gets a say in the issue remains to be seen!

 

[brad465]

Adam Afriyie had previously stated that he wouldn't stand for re-election at the next general election, and has today confirmed that he intends to remain as an MP until then. It does not appear that his bankruptcy requires him to step down, and I wouldn't expect that his party - at the national level - wants him to either. Whether or not his local party gets a say in the issue remains to be seen!

If he's been found hiding assets and/or refuses to comply the he'll be forced to, but neither has been reported to have happened so far.

 

[jfollows]

Guardian report attached (https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...uit-as-conservative-mp-after-bankruptcy-order):

Politics

Adam Afriyie says he will not quit as Conservative MP after bankruptcy order​

Windsor MP will stand down at next election but not quit and trigger byelection


Jessica Elgot Deputy political editor
@jessicaelgot
Tue 13 Dec 2022 14.01 GMT


The Conservative MP Adam Afriyie has said he will not quit as an MP after being made bankrupt by a court ruling, which found he owed about £1.7m.
Afriyie was pursued by creditors including HMRC for £1m in unpaid tax and Barclays Bank. He asked for more time to sell the family home in order to pay his debts. But the judge ruled Afriyie had had long enough to make arrangements and ordered bankruptcy.

Under parliamentary rules, sitting MPs who are declared bankrupt do not have to step aside unless a more severe bankruptcy restrictions order is made against them, which can be imposed if the bankrupt refuses to cooperate with the process or is suspected of hiding assets.
In a statement, the Windsor MP said he would stand down at the next election but not trigger a byelection. “This has been ongoing for many years following business failures some time ago. I am ultimately responsible for some of the bank borrowing through personal guarantee. I’ve been trying to sell our home and downsize for some time, but it’s a tough market,” he said.
“It is a stressful time and it’ll be tough for a while, but I’m far from the only person in a difficult position, and I will continue to do my best to support my constituents until the next general election when I’ll be standing down.”
The order was made against Afriyie at an online hearing in the insolvency and companies court on Tuesday by Judge Nicholas Briggs.
Labour sources said they were likely to make the case that it is untenable for a sitting MP to owe so much to HMRC.
The judge was told Afriyie owed about £1m to HMRC and about £700,000 to Barclays and concluded he would not allow more time for Afriyie to sell the property.
“It seems to me there is no evidence of there being any reasonable prospects of paying debts in full,” he said.
Barrister Fiona Whiteside, who represented Barclays, said the bank had “lost patience”, and added: “We have seen no credible evidence that the property will be sold any time soon.”
Afriyie, who has said he will stand down at the next election, was previously a successful entrepreneur after setting up the IT firm Connect Support Services and then co-founding the political information provider DeHavilland. Shortly after he was first elected in 2005, that business, of which he owned 72%, was sold to the publishing giant Emap with his share worth £13m.

He paid £4m for a house in his Windsor constituency in 2008, according to Land Registry records. Connect Support Services went into insolvency in 2017 and it was reported at the time that it had racked up £1.7m of debts with HMRC, which is the lead creditor in Afriyie’s forthcoming bankruptcy case.
Afriyie announced his intention to stand down at the next election over the summer, during the Conservative leadership election. He said: “With Brexit concluded and the fourth leadership election under way, I feel that now it the right time for a new MP to represent our constituency and continue to protect and promote our beautiful area in the years ahead.
“There is no greater honour than to serve your country and your constituents, and I will diligently continue to perform my duties until the next election.”

 

[The Ham]

This is the government, they don't make announcements without carefully planning and working out if something is feasible first.

Like the mini budget...

Although, TikTok seems to capture a majority younger audience who may be more supportive of strikes but this YouGov article seems to say otherwise



I have no idea what has happened with this like. Apologies in advance.


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...-unions-seen-more-negatively-following-2022s-

Twitter also comes in at about 3:1 support (although again those following Martin Lewis are more likely to support):

https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1602618934586494977?t=V_jfWXP4JSTfMIT894cNKw&s=19

 

[Lost property]

This is the government, they don't make announcements without carefully planning and working out if something is feasible first.

May I amend that to read " without woefully misplanning and working out if it sounds plausible first " please.

 

[brad465]

Johnson seems to be doing well post-premiership:

Boris Johnson makes more than £1m from speeches since leaving office

The former PM's paid appearances since September include speeches in America, India and Portugal.

www.bbc.co.uk

Boris Johnson has made more than £1m from giving speeches since leaving No 10, parliamentary records show.
The former prime minister was paid £754,000 for three speeches in America, India and Portugal last month, according to the latest register of MPs' interests.
It comes on top of £276,000 he made from a speech in October.
The records also show he and his family have continued to receive accommodation from Tory donor Lord Bamford.
Mr Johnson registered a further £3,500 in accommodation from the JCB boss and his wife Carole for November and December.
That was in addition to the £37,000 for accommodation he had previously registered from the couple since leaving office in September.

The couple donated £23,853 towards a summer wedding celebration for Mr Johnson and his wife Carrie, who married last year.
A previous entry specified it covered the cost of hiring a marquee, portable toilets, waiting staff, flowers, a South African BBQ and an ice cream van.
According to the latest update to the register, Mr Johnson was paid £277,723 by New York-based investment banking firm Centerview Partners for a speech on 9 November.
He then received £261,652 from the Hindustan Times for a speech on 17 November, and £215,275 from Portuguese TV station Televisao Independente for a speech on 23 November during the CNN Global Summit in Lisbon.
Mr Johnson was replaced as prime minister by Liz Truss in September, after his resignation in June.
His downfall followed a mass revolt by ministers over controversies including his handling of sexual misconduct allegations against former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.
Mr Johnson faced criticism for being too slow to suspend Mr Pincher from the parliamentary party, following allegations he had groped two men in a private members' club.
Mr Pincher stepped down from his government job in July, when he apologised for drinking "far too much" and embarrassing "myself and other people".
The MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip attempted a surprise comeback in October, when he emerged as a possible replacement for Ms Truss after she resigned.
But he later ruled himself out of the leadership race, saying it was not possible to govern effectively without a united party.
There had been suggestions Mr Johnson would stand down from Parliament after he was ousted as prime minister but he has told his local Conservative Party he will stand again as an MP at the next general election.

 

[Thirteen]

The real benefit of being PM is the speech circuit. Theresa May makes a lot of dosh there as well.

 

[brad465]

The real benefit of being PM is the speech circuit. Theresa May makes a lot of dosh there as well.

That and also going onto be envoys/advisors for big organisations, which Blair and Cameron have notably done, and in all cases, writing memoirs.

 

[Thirteen]

That and also going onto be envoys/advisors for big organisations, which Blair and Cameron have notably done, and in all cases, writing memoirs.

I suspect Sunak's next job will be a CEO of some hedge fund.

 

[Lost property]

That and also going onto be envoys/advisors for big organisations, which Blair and Cameron have notably done, and in all cases, writing memoirs.

Not sure if Cameron's book was what you would call a best seller....after all, two chapters " How I screwed millions with my austerity programme " and " How I capitulated to the ERG and screwed the UK with a referendum " doesn't really amount to much reading.

Boris's memoirs ?...as Boris is incapable of telling the truth, then Boris's memoirs should be an uncontested Booker Prize winner.

Due to a certain conflict, the once well established supply source has been diluted somewhat, hopefully never to return. Thankfully, a bit of searching across the globe has found a potentially lucrative alternative (membership of the House of Lords duly pending)

Tories make billionaire ex-Mubarak minister senior treasurer

Mohamed Mansour, who served under Egyptian autocrat, given role fundraising in run-up to election

www.theguardian.com

 

[nw1]

and the new Chester Labour MP is a 'Member of the British Empire'.

Who really cares??? Many people are MBEs, often for doing works of good; she got it for "political service" (not sure what that entails, but whatever it is, it isn't inherited wealth).

I doubt she is a millionaire, unlike the likes of Hunt and Sunak.

 

[birchesgreen]

Well, I do - it seems hypocrisy. Because of bad experiences in my childhood and youth I have a deep resentment of 'the Establishment', i.e. people who, baselessly, think that they are superior and accordingly boss us plebs about. I would have thought that the Labour Party would be pro-egalitarianism/meritocracy; but Starmer accepted a knighthood and the new Chester Labour MP is a 'Member of the British Empire'.

So what, my Dad's cousin-in-law was an MBE and all he did was kick a ball about (and break a few defender's legs) in Scouseland.

 

[nw1]

Adam Afriyie had previously stated that he wouldn't stand for re-election at the next general election, and has today confirmed that he intends to remain as an MP until then. It does not appear that his bankruptcy requires him to step down, and I wouldn't expect that his party - at the national level - wants him to either. Whether or not his local party gets a say in the issue remains to be seen!

I think Windsor is the kind of seat almost certain to return a Tory no matter what, so any by-election would be pretty unexciting in any case, in the same way that a by-election in inner London or central Manchester would be pretty unexciting.

Now if Pincher would only stand down (heaven knows why he hasn't) it might be a little more interesting. Granted the small-town Midlands has seemed, in recent years, to be the new home of conservatism; but I also get the impression it was Johnson conservatism in particular that was popular in that part of the world. Without Johnson other parties might have a chance. Same goes for that rather controversial Somerton and Frome guy.

 

[Merle Haggard]

So what, my Dad's cousin-in-law was an MBE and all he did was kick a ball about (and break a few defender's legs) in Scouseland.

And also in reply to 'NW1' although my multi quote failed


My point about the Labour M.P.'s MBE was not so much about people receiving the award for just doing their job or even a hobby, like your relative (though that's a fair point) - but what I saw as a conflict (on several levels) between 'empire', and the attitudes implied by that word, and socialism. I did infer a connection between Labour and Socialism - that must have been my error...

 

[jfollows]

I think Windsor is the kind of seat almost certain to return a Tory no matter what, so any by-election would be pretty unexciting in any case, in the same way that a by-election in inner London or central Manchester would be pretty unexciting.

Electoral Calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=sl41nq) gives a 62% chance of winning, but that's on recent opinion polls:
Conservative 38.5%
Labour 34.1%
Liberal 16.2%
others ~10%

However, confusingly, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Windsor&postcode=SL4 1NQ gives Labour a 59% chance of winning. Go figure. I think a by-election now could be interesting, but by next general election it'll settle down.

 

[brad465]

The current Parliamentary session has been extended into Autumn 2023, apparently to give more time for the current legislation to pass (which means Charles III will have to wait a bit longer for his first State Opening of Parliament as Monarch, ignoring the last one which he did covering for the now late Queen):

Rishi Sunak extends time to pass current crop of laws

The move gives the prime minister more time to work through laws tabled under Boris Johnson.

www.bbc.co.uk

Rishi Sunak has decided to give himself longer to pass laws that began their passage through Parliament under predecessor Boris Johnson.
Downing Street has confirmed the current parliamentary session, which had been expected to end next spring, will now be extended until autumn 2023.
A spokesman for the prime minister said it would enable the government to get through a "packed" agenda.
The move could help ministers pass laws including the Online Safety Bill.
The PM's spokesman also confirmed a current bill to limit strike action on public transport will be paused, whilst ministers look at widening its scope.
Mr Sunak has been facing pressure from his MPs to extend minimum service requirements for public services following an ongoing series of walkouts.
He has also promised to introduce legislation early in the new year to ban illegal immigrants from claiming asylum.
The bill is likely to prove controversial, with the UN and several charities saying it will breach international law - something denied by ministers.

The government's current legislative agenda, announced at the start of the current parliamentary session in May, included a bumper 38 laws that Mr Johnson intended to pass before spring next year.
But parliamentary time to get through the measures has been eroded due to leadership changes in the Conservative Party.
Mr Johnson was replaced by Liz Truss in September after a summer leadership race, before she was then replaced by Mr Sunak after 45 days.
Mr Sunak took power after a truncated four-day leadership race in October, without announcing any policies or giving any interviews.
He has since distanced himself from some of the pledges he made during his unsuccessful campaign to replace Mr Johnson over the summer.
Last month, his spokesman said he would be taking time to review "what is deliverable and what is possible" from what he promised to do.

Presumably changing PM twice and Monarch once in one session has cost business time, as well as having to sort out some backbench rebellions.

 

[nw1]

And also in reply to 'NW1' although my multi quote failed


My point about the Labour M.P.'s MBE was not so much about people receiving the award for just doing their job or even a hobby, like your relative (though that's a fair point) - but what I saw as a conflict (on several levels) between 'empire', and the attitudes implied by that word, and socialism. I did infer a connection between Labour and Socialism - that must have been my error...

Doesn't mean that MBEs support the concept of the British Empire though. It's just a name, at the end of the day.

Also doesn't mean they can't be socialist.

 

[dgl]

My great Uncle received his OBE and later CBE for the work be did out in what became Botswana, and helped them not only with their independence becoming Botswana's first Attorney General, so no they don't have to be pro-empire and can actually work to reduce it!

 

[brad465]

Found out the reason there's no money to improve pay for nurses and other public sector workers on strike:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

HM Revenue & Customs is under pressure to urgently recoup tax revenue after the parliament spending watchdog revealed that a sharp fall in investigations over the pandemic had cost the government as much as £9bn.

 

[WizCastro197]

Stretford and Urmston by-election: Labour easily hold seat https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-63971038

Stretford and Urmston by-election: Labour easily hold seat

Andrew Western, who secured 70% of the vote, declared "the British people are giving up" on the Conservatives.

I wasn’t even aware this by-election was occurring until yesterday…

 

[JamesT]

Found out the reason there's no money to improve pay for nurses and other public sector workers on strike:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

Not really. It’s a very soft estimate on what they think they might have been able to collect based on historical averages. HMRC does chase people for past taxes due, they may well be able to recoup the money in the future now their staff aren’t working on the pandemic.

Even if the estimate is accurate, it’s hardly the whole story. £9bn is about 1% of government spending in a year. It’s also a one-off figure, whereas public sector salaries are recurring and rises usually compounding.

 

[Yew]

It’s also a one-off figure, whereas public sector salaries are recurring and rises usually compounding.

Fortunately, most of the money of public sector wages either go directly back to the exchequer (in the form of income tax and NI) or spent on goods and services which accrue VAT, stimulate the economy, and support jobs which also pay income tax and NI.

 

[nr758123]

However, confusingly, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Windsor&postcode=SL4 1NQ gives Labour a 59% chance of winning. Go figure.

Maybe some assumption of anti-Tory tactical voting

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Fortunately, most of the money of public sector wages either go directly back to the exchequer (in the form of income tax and NI) or spent on goods and services which accrue VAT, stimulate the economy, and support jobs which also pay income tax and NI.

A fair proportion of public sector wages comes back to the exchequer in taxes etc. But that still leaves a big chunk that isn't recouped and therefore, if not accounted for by raising taxes or cutting expenditure elsewhere, will increase the deficit with all the economic problems that entails.

As for money being spent on goods and services - that would be a reasonable argument if there was a shortage of jobs and lots of people looking for work, but the logic breaks down when we have a surplus of jobs and many unfilled vacancies - and therefore - presumably, - little capacity for companies to increase production. In the current situation, I'd expect any increase in demand to primarily cause more inflation.

 

[najaB]

But that still leaves a big chunk that isn't recouped and therefore, if not accounted for by raising taxes or cutting expenditure elsewhere, will increase the deficit with all the economic problems that entails.

Which is based on the assumption that the public sector wages aren't spent of things that allow the private sector to be more productive and increase indirect returns through taxes on business.