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Britain's railways in 50 years time

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Philip

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What do people expect the rail network in this country to look like, 50 years from now?
Could all trains be like the DLR in being driverless? Could ticket offices defy all expectations and outlast every other role and still be a thing in 2070 (sic)? Away from roles, could any of the rolling stock in use now still be in use in 50 years? Will running on diesel be 100% a thing of the past? Any major line closures? What about the status of the northern sections of HS2?

Interested to hear people's thoughts about 'the railway in the 70s', including wild predictions!
 
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chorleyjeff

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What do people expect the rail network in this country to look like, 50 years from now?
Could all trains be like the DLR in being driverless? Could ticket offices defy all expectations and outlast every other role and still be a thing in 2070 (sic)? Away from roles, could any of the rolling stock in use now still be in use in 50 years? Will running on diesel be 100% a thing of the past? Any major line closures? What about the status of the northern sections of HS2?

Interested to hear people's thoughts about 'the railway in the 70s', including wild predictions!
Bare bones of the current passenger "services" with slow goods trains using some of the current lines degraded to something like the S&C
 

Bletchleyite

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I'm not sure if 50 years is enough, but I would still expect that guard only operation (DLR style, but using more on-train tech plus a form of ETCS) will become a mainstream thing at some point.

I would predict it will first be trialled on the Stourbridge Shuttle.

The rest of it very much depends on what tech is developed both for rail and road, what political approaches are used, and if carbon-free aviation becomes a thing. If it's possible to make aviation non-damaging, the case for long distance high speed rail becomes very poor.
 

stuu

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Enthusiasts will be grumbling about the demise of the HST, still...
They will be grumbling about the demise of the classic 800s, to be replaced by some terrible modern rubbish
 

DanNCL

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Aventras, Desiros, 80xs and the first HS2 fleet will all be long gone. The national network fleet will be almost entirely unrecognisable compared to today.

Meanwhile TFL are still waiting for funding to replace the 1972 stock on the Bakerloo line, which by then have long ceased to provide any form of reliable service other than as a glorified museum line. And Network Rail or whatever their equivalent in 2072 will be will still be trying to use 37s, by that point over 100 years old, on RHTT work.
 

PTR 444

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NPR will have been built beneath Manchester, yet Castlefield still suffers from chronic congestion due to a lack of investment and everywhere wanting direct trains to Manchester Airport.
 

yoyothehobo

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A new Canfranc style station will be built at Carlisle and Berwick to deal with an independent Scotland and its border checks and the change onto the new "Scottish Gauge", which is 4 foot 7 and a half inches (to allow for deep fried batter thickness)

Colne to Skipton still wont be open (or have a business case)

Fort William to Mallaig will be turned into Harry Potter land entirely.

Bradford Crossrail will be built and all stations in Bradford demolished (true non stop running).

In all seriousness:

I can see a lot of lower used lines, S+C, FoB, Cumbrian Coast etc.. undergoing serious rationalisation due to infrastructure failures (earthworks due to climate change with more rainfall) and NR simply not having the resources and time and money to repair them. If Eden Brows had happened on a line that wasnt called the S and C i could see it lead to extended closures.

There wont be a strategy of closures but just a "we cant afford to fix this, we are dealing with this failure here etc..."
 

Bletchleyite

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An interesting question is whether, when Fairbourne is abandoned and demolished, the Cambrian Coast line will be rebuilt inland and higher up, or if it'll simply be truncated to Tywyn or even replaced entirely with a Traws bus from Machynlleth. A very long section of it between Fairbourne and lower Harlech will be very vulnerable to rising sea levels and rebuilding it will be hugely costly - the "annual Conwy Valley rebuild" (actually just a couple of wash-outs in most cases) would pale into insignificance in comparison.

Slight prediction: those damp conditions will cause a serious failure in the Ffestiniog tunnel and so the Conwy Valley will be truncated to Betws y Coed, but probably still exist because driving cars in the National Park will be seriously deprecated.
 

MattRat

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Either politicians get their act together and we end up catching up to rest of Europe, or the situation gets worse and we end up like the USA.
 

jj1314

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We'll have nuclear-powered trains, at least every 30 minutes, on every operational passenger line.

Meanwhile, the Night Riviera will continue to run using re-re-refurbished mk3s and tired class 57s...
 

Thirteen

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By 2072, the Government of the day will probably be looking to be building UHS1 which is a Hyperloop service. Crossrail 2 aka The Churchill Line will have been going for 10-15 years with Crossrail 3 in the planning stages.

The Island Line has Class 494s which are refurbished 2024 Tube Stock which replaced the ageing Class 484s.
 

yorksrob

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The rolling stock still won't be a patch on the old slam door trains in terms of comfort. (Realistic prediction).
 

Thirteen

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The rolling stock still won't be a patch on the old slam door trains in terms of comfort. (Realistic prediction).
I imagine commuter's bottoms will have become so used to the ironing board seats of the 2010s and 2020s that by the 2070s, they'll have shifted to hard plastic seating on public transport.
 

yorksrob

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I imagine commuter's bottoms will have become so used to the ironing board seats of the 2010s and 2020s that by the 2070s, they'll have shifted to hard plastic seating on public transport.

Or commuters will have evolved additional fat to act as padding on hard surfaces :lol:
 

TT-ONR-NRN

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Enthusiasts will be grumbling about the demise of the HST, still...
:lol: And no doubt still trying to scrape together random carriages to put onto CrossCountry :lol:

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I imagine commuter's bottoms will have become so used to the ironing board seats of the 2010s and 2020s that by the 2070s, they'll have shifted to hard plastic seating on public transport.
That's standard on many trains worldwide!
 

HS2isgood

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- The UK will be very different in a railway sense from Continental Europe, by virtue of the use of battery trains and alternative fuels, similar to the United States, in non-electrified lines. There is a slow program of electrification though, the Cornish Main Line, and entire MML are electrified. The XC route only to the Southwest, as HS2 through services emerge thanks to a curve at Birmingham. These fancy trains are both more expensive than Continental Europe in operation and something European railfans love. On the other hand, some unexpected lines are electrified, like the S&C line, a major freight corridor.

- On the other hand, Wales and Scotland have more electrified infrastructure, the only exceptions being the Heart of Wales and the lines west of Carmarthen and the Stranraer and Highland lines.

- No relevant closures even though, with all transport being net-zero, there is talk about closing some branches, which the Welsh and Scottish government refuse. The only closure in this period (aside from some random freight spurs) is Barton to Habrough.

- Everything is either DOO or GOO (self-driving). The advent of unified European ticketing, and its really complicated routeing guide, saves some ticket offices, there are around 15 in the country.

- The UK has an interesting high-speed network: HS2 and NPR are open in full, and there's talk about high-speed rail to Newcastle, Scotland or a high-speed bypass to Bristol and Exeter. The UK enters Schengen, but not the EU, and a new chord allows HS2 to have through services from Europe, reversing at both St Pancras and Euston. The saturation of HS2 prompted talk about a direct line to East Midlands Parkway, but the advent of faster-than-HSR travel put paid to that. Sleepers from London to the EU appeared after Schengen but Hyperloop ended them. Lille-Europe is a very busy station with British travellers to the continent changing there for Hyperloop.

- The oldest stock still around is some 80X, which is soon to be replaced, due to its lack of level boarding in all doors.

- The London commuter network has grown in ridership, and some lines struggle with capacity. The GWML has 6 tracks to Heathrow Junction, Digswell Viaduct has a parallel viaduct and Crossrail 3 is being talked about. The SWML has 6 tracks out to New Malden, even though 2 are underground as part of XR2. The Green Belt was scrapped by the Government in the late 40s, and outer suburban services are way busier than in the 20s.

- Freight usage has skyrocketed with the phaseout of ICE trucks, which have no full road replacement, and passenger services are struggling to keep to the timetables in many mainlines. HS2 to Newcastle or the S&C electrification aim at increasing freight capacity, even though the capacity crunch is very real. Projects for a new line from the North London Line to the MML/WCML/ECML have started, using EWR as an axis. EWR is being wired.

- Despite the calls for a replacement on safety grounds, third rail is still around.

- There's been some modest expansion of the London Tube. Leeds still has no subway, but has 2 high-speed lines and a tram network. Merseyrail has expanded (Skem, Wrexham, the City Line link to Liverpool Central)

- Some limited reopenings but not a lot of them.

- Scottish rail is a ScotRail monopoly, except for the English trains running to Scotland, and freight. The Caledonian Sleeper was withdrawn on independence. The London chord allows for services from Scotland to Paris or Brussels.

- There's a consensus that the UK needs a new high-speed network, but there's a dispute between Maglev and Hyperloop. Maglev seems more reasonable for the UK's small size but the Scottish Government pushes for Hyperloop, as it's the European standard. It looks likely that a second, Hyperloop Chunnel will be built, and the rest of England will have to connect to Maglev.

- The EU pushed for a bridge to Ireland, and the North Wales Coast Line is now the Anglo-Irish Mainline. The Camden Chords connect Dublin and Belfast to Paris and Brussels, via London.
 

htafc

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I will be in my late 60s, this great forum will still be going (with me as a Veteran Member) and HS2 & NPR will have been constructed in some form. Electrification of all major and most minor routes will have been completed, with maglev technology the next big step for Britain (long distance, not Birmingham airport-style). The Green Party will have been elected to power for the first time, ensuring that all diesel passenger trains are retired. Most freight will travel by electric train, not road.
Scotland and NI will have left the union, with the rest of Britain run by a successful nationalised body.

I like to be positive!
 

Irascible

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Devon & Cornwall will be signalled by bobbies waving flags after the signalling has finally expired completely. There'll be no impetus to change it because it's seen as a quaint local practice by the south-east... meanwhile after everyone of working age emigrated there'll be vastly reduced need for all transport, so the rest of the network will look much the same.
 

NoRoute

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I think it will largely depend on how self-driving technology develops. Once it becomes possible for articulated vehicles to automatically drive safely, at high speed within a narrow corridor along conventional roads or dedicated roadways then it becomes possible to remove the main weakness of the railways, the rails.
 

Thirteen

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The TOCs and British Railway Network have advanced robots who have replaced a number of human employees but unfortunately they have set up their own union called the Robotic and Automated Machinery Trade Union who threaten strike action for equal pay and rights to their human counterparts.
 

fwsmVor

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In an effort to curtail excess emissions of microscopic particles of metal caused by friction between pantographs and wires, nuclear propulsion will replace OHLE. The resulting trains will have no need for drivers, as is standard on main lines since 2060, but require a fireman to monitor the reactor and drop the control rods if the boiler runs dry. ASLEF will have a minor constitutional crisis, since it changed its name to ASLE in 2050 and now technically represents nobody.
The last 700 was scrapped in 2065 after the People's Republic of Scotland rejected a cascade to replace its Inter7City sets, by now staffed by the Ordo Seclorum Locomotivum. The Order's ancient chants are inscrutable but somehow cause the power cars, long since rusted into apparent uselessness, to roar into life with a noise that sounds like a Valenta with its exhaust connected to a Jericho trumpet. It was, of course, dragged to be scrapped by a 37.
 

RobShipway

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In an effort to curtail excess emissions of microscopic particles of metal caused by friction between pantographs and wires, nuclear propulsion will replace OHLE. The resulting trains will have no need for drivers, as is standard on main lines since 2060, but require a fireman to monitor the reactor and drop the control rods if the boiler runs dry. ASLEF will have a minor constitutional crisis, since it changed its name to ASLE in 2050 and now technically represents nobody.
The last 700 was scrapped in 2065 after the People's Republic of Scotland rejected a cascade to replace its Inter7City sets, by now staffed by the Ordo Seclorum Locomotivum. The Order's ancient chants are inscrutable but somehow cause the power cars, long since rusted into apparent uselessness, to roar into life with a noise that sounds like a Valenta with its exhaust connected to a Jericho trumpet. It was, of course, dragged to be scrapped by a 37.
I would imagine the engine hauling anything to scrap would be either Class 66, 68, 88 or 93. The only place you will see a class 37 is on a preserved railway line, if any of those still exist in 2065.
 

43172

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People will still be trying to expand 3rd rail land, meanwhile the gwr fleet of 769's will still not have opperated a passenger service.

In all seriousness all branch line and other local services are run without a driver, with only long distance IC services having a driver in the cab to act as standby if the computer fails. There is a scheme of bridge building where tunnels under rivers are closed (such as the Severn Tunnel) and bridges such as the Royal Albert bridge are replaced with bridges that allow for a 2 track railway across the Tamar.
 

MattRat

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The TOCs and British Railway Network have advanced robots who have replaced a number of human employees but unfortunately they have set up their own union called the Robotic and Automated Machinery Trade Union who threaten strike action for equal pay and rights to their human counterparts.
Honestly I like this version of the future. AI lives matter.
 

SynthD

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A lot more lines will be lost to the sea than predicted. Dawlish will be not just impassable, but the town will look different. Same for Norfolk and other low lying areas. All diesel gone. Crossrail 2 is new. HS2 has dedicated tracks going further north than the golbourne link.
 

Big Jumby 74

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What do people expect the rail network in this country to look like, 50 years from now?
I have deliberately not read any of the answers to your original post, as too often people, myself included (with the best intensions) can get bogged down in the minutae detail of a subject. Your question, as I have copied/pasted above, is something that has crossed my mind now and then. I'm long retired, so perhaps out of touch in many ways, but was an 'old school' railwayman who joined just after the end of steam, so the operations side of things in my early days were still 'of the steam age', and I make no apology for that, as I learnt (railway related) skills from my elders that stood me in good shape throughout my career, although in later days some amongst the new breed, would refer to those of my career generation as 'the cardigan department' (some on here will recognise and know exactly to what I refer!).
With the current industrial situation, brought about in part I guess by covid, things do not look good as far as I can see, and it has crossed my mind if things deteriorate too much further (in that those who use the railway who amount to something like 5-10% of the commuting population - as I understand? - and many of those people will be forced to find alternative ways of commuting etc., and once gone, a majority may not return) then what is left of the UK network will, perhaps with the exception of larger city/urban areas, where metro style services would always likely be financially viable, will start to fold up and die.
I am thinking here more of a US style scenario whereby the major long distance network is largely freight orientated as opposed to passenger, BUT, the difference here in the UK, is that long haul (ie London to Scotland in essence) is actually not that far, in distance or time, whichever transport mode is used, road or rail. I suspect, given the UK is far more over crowded in relation to its physical mass than the US, any mass transition to road usage as a result of current industrial issues etc, may just prove that we do still need a 'long distance' rail network - I do hope so, but those currently putting the entire industry in jeopardy need to put aside their differences and come to a compromise that is to the benefit of the UK overall. Give and take on ALL sides is the key.
 
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