Is climate change only indicated by summer weather?

[102 fan]

Why is it that hot weather in the summer is climate change,

Climate change: Summer 2022 smashed dozens of UK records

Half of the UK’s oldest weather stations set new records in the July heatwave.

www.bbc.com

'Scientists at the Met Office who carried out the analysis described this summer's extreme temperatures as a "real indication of how our climate is changing.'

Yet cold weather in the winter doesn't garner any climate change alarmist headlines?

BBC News - UK weather: Met Office warns of below freezing temperatures

UK weather: Met Office warns of below freezing temperatures

People are urged to look out for friends and family amid unseasonably cold temperatures this week.

www.bbc.co.uk

'The Met Office has warned that severe cold weather is set to hit the UK this week, with overnight temperatures plummeting to -6C (21F) in some places.'

Is it harder to sell climate change in temperatures below 0C?

 

[Bletchleyite]

-6 is totally normal UK winter weather.

It's when it *isn't* cold in winter, or when there are extremes like storms, that highlights climate change.

 

[102 fan]

-6 is totally normal UK winter weather.

It's when it *isn't* cold in winter, or when there are extremes like storms, that highlights climate change.

Just the sort of answer I was expecting, to be honest.

 

[ainsworth74]

Just the sort of answer I was expecting, to be honest.

Then why did you ask the question if you already knew the answer? Or is there another answer that you think applies?

 

[Class172]

Climate change will be affecting both summer and winter weather, but my first thought as to why summer weather is more likely to feature in headlines is simply a result of the temperatures and conditions we are already familiar with. The heatwave we experienced this July was unprecedented with temperatures exceeding 40C in a number of places across England. These are temperatures that no-one has ever experienced before as ambient conditions in the UK, and as such will make big news. Global warming also affects winter weather, however when a winter is unusually warm, temperatures are those that everyone will have experienced before (just at different times of year) and there are no shocking conditions that people are unfamiliar with.

Most climate models do agree that the long term trend for UK winters is for them to become warmer but also wetter.

 

[Snow1964]

Most of the climate change is quoted against just a few decades of observations. Vast areas of the planet had no accurate records before 1950s

I understand from tree ring data that UK was warmer during Roman period than nowadays (all the big SUVs the Romans must have driven ) then particularly wet and cooler during dark ages, 16th century was warm and 17th century was cold.

The elliptical orbit of our warming sun which is sometimes further away, and the approx 13 year sunspot activity cycle (meaning heat levels from sun vary) probably affect the jet stream and thus our weather more than some realise.

And yes current cold weather pattern is not that different to 2010, 1981, perhaps 1962 etc. Less than average, but not climate change.

 

[Gloster]

Yes, there have always been periods (centuries) when the climate is generally warmer or colder than the one before, after which it cools down/warms up a bit to similar to the previous period. However, we, by our own actions, are adding extra warming to the normal natural cycle and the risk is that we may push the whole system past the tipping point so that it just continues to perpetually warm.

 

[deltic]

Human activity has been changing the climate for a long time - most of Europe was wooded and eventually cleared for agriculture impacting the climate. Researchers estimate that the death of 60m indigenous people by Europeans in the 15th and 16th centuries in South, Central and North America, caused large areas of farmland to be abandoned and reforested resulting in a decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere leading to the earth cooling.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

For anyone who thinks that we can somehow dismiss current climate change as being no different from what has happened before... this graph of how global temperatures have changed since Roman times is instructive. Yes, the climate does naturally vary, but what's been happening over the last 100 years as a result of all the fossil fuels we're burning is nothing like normal:

(Graph taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_last_2,000_years)

 

[DarloRich]

Just the sort of answer I was expecting, to be honest.

Why ask the question if you knew the answer?

Perhaps you could set out your view on climate change rather than dissembling.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Dec 2022 ==

-6 is totally normal UK winter weather.

it is in some areas. I think that kind of temperature in an urban area MK at this time of year might be a little sooner than expected. In the Highlands or the Moors things would be different.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Most of the climate change is quoted against just a few decades of observations. Vast areas of the planet had no accurate records before 1950s

I understand from tree ring data that UK was warmer during Roman period than nowadays (all the big SUVs the Romans must have driven ) then particularly wet and cooler during dark ages, 16th century was warm and 17th century was cold.

The elliptical orbit of our warming sun which is sometimes further away, and the approx 13 year sunspot activity cycle (meaning heat levels from sun vary) probably affect the jet stream and thus our weather more than some realise.

And yes current cold weather pattern is not that different to 2010, 1981, perhaps 1962 etc. Less than average, but not climate change.

Precisely and this why the climate evangelists now like to talk about extreme weather events as being the observable issue as its very difficult for us to really discern 0.1 deg temp changes from one year to the next.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I have noticed that in my lifetime winters have become undeniably milder. I grew up in the south-east and while it didn't snow every winter it was not unreasonable to expect that it would. Fast forward five decades or so and even in the north-west I have experienced multiple winters without any all-day frosts. But in terms of day-to-day life this is welcome as it results in less use of heating at home. However that's not the sort of story of much interest to the media.

The bigger picture is that the effects of climate change will not be experienced evenly around the globe. Check out long-term records of the winter freezing of the Arctic Ocean or simple weather reports from somewhere like Svalbard, or even the very noticeable shrinkage of European glaciers, and you will see much more dramatic changes over a relatively short time. The wildcard for the UK is whether gradual melting of the Greenland ice shelf will have any significant effect on the Gulf Stream. If it does we might have winters more like places at a similar latitude (Newfoundland). At this point we don't know about this factor either way.

 

[philosopher]

I have noticed that in my lifetime winters have become undeniably milder. I grew up in the south-east and while it didn't snow every winter it was not unreasonable to expect that it would. Fast forward five decades or so and even in the north-west I have experienced multiple winters without any all-day frosts. But in terms of day-to-day life this is welcome as it results in less use of heating at home. However that's not the sort of story of much interest to the media.

The previous winter (2021 to 2022) had no snow at all in London, which I would say seems to be the case in about a third of winters. Another third will have snow, but only one or two short lived falls that does not settle. Only a third of winters I would say actually have snow that settles.

That said, so far every winter while I have lived in London has had at least one frost and almost all have had a few cold days when it does not get above 5c.

I am not sure what winters were like in London before 2005 though. Where I grew up, in Birmingham, snow was and I would say is still expected every winter.

 

[Garmoran]

it is in some areas. I think that kind of temperature in an urban area MK at this time of year might be a little sooner than expected. In the Highlands or the Moors things would be different.

My perception is that temperature differences tend to be much more an east-west thing than north south. In more than one winter I have made my way from a snowy southeast of England to a balmy NW Highlands basking in 7 or 8 degrees. In winter cold weather comes from the east, from the continent, so the east side of Britain gets more snow.

In my lifetime the west hasn't got the kind of snowfalls that appear on the news in Aberdeenshire and Yorkshire. However, the NW coast used to see a few light falls of snow each winter - not true of the last two years, however, when the thermometer has remained above zero for all but a few winter days.

 

[DC1989]

Didn't we just have the warmest November on record? There was plenty of news about that??

 

[Giugiaro]

We don't talk about global warming like before because the global atmosphere is causing a shift in the climate as natural flows are disrupted and physical barriers/sinks are destroyed.
That is why we now refer to it as climate change.

It's no surprise that summers for some will be hotter, and winters for others will be colder.
Some suffer from winter draughts, while others suffer all-year-rain on a single summer day.
And while mountain tops dry up and barely get any snow, sea levels keep rising and are already causing damage to the shoreline.

Extremes are also going to be prevalent: Mildly hot summers may have one or two extremely hot heat waves and relatively banal winters may have one or two extremely cold days.

 

[ChrisC]

Didn't we just have the warmest November on record? There was plenty of news about that??

The weather throughout the autumn months of September, October and November generally seems to be getting warmer. Warm summer type days are becoming quite normal right through September and even into the beginning of October. The cold weather forecast for this week with hard frosts is the first real cold weather this winter but it is now December. Only 20-30 years ago the first frosts of the winter would come weeks earlier than this. I remember the farmers working very hard during early October to get the potatoes harvested before the frosts arrived. Just looking at my garden now, there are so many plants still in flower, and so much greenery that in the past would have died off, been cut down or be frost damaged by now.

 

[2192]

If we don't do something about it, there will be a lot more than just hotter summers, for instance:
1. The ice melting at the poles causing sea level rise and significant massive flooding in low lying countries, cutting the area available to grow food, and for people to live.
2. Glaciers disappearing which up to now have fed the major rivers to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh amongst other places, leading to a severe shortage of drinking water -- and armed conflict to get what small supplies there are.
3. Lots of out-of-control forest fires. We are experiencing these already, for instance, in Australia and Canada.
4. Lots of biting insects coming to Britain -- it has previously been too cold for a lot of varieties.

I have bought nine copies of Bill McGuire's book "Hothouse Earth" to give to relatives at Christmas. It's under a tenner on the internet. I recommend it.

 

[brad465]

If winter weather sees extreme flooding/strong winds, then it's used in climate change indicators, which 2013-14 was, and in 2015 when Storm Desmond hit.

 

[nw1]

Winters are definitely less cold and in particular less snowy than in the 80s.

Widespread January snow, which persisted for at least a few days, fell in the south in 1979, 1982, 1985 and 1987. Since then it's only occurred twice, in 2010 and 2013. If we extend that to the whole winter and into early spring, we got proper snowy spells of this kind in (Jan-Feb year) 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1991 and 1996 - but since then only in 2009, 2010, 2011 (actually Dec 2010), 2013 and 2018. (Interestingly the period 2009-13 seemed to feature a reversion to an 80s-style climate with colder winters and also generally cool summers).

Proper snow is now a rarity in the south and is probably harder to achieve than a temp of 35C in the summer.

That said, summers in general actually seem to be more disappointing than in the 90s, with a lot of cloud and damp most years, and unremarkable daytime temperatures but with short-lived extreme heat spikes. But what is noticeable is warm summer nights - even in the bad summers, such as 2021 - the nights were mild. In the 80s and before we often got summers featuring cool days and nights. In the 90s and surrounding years, starting with the summer of 1989, we had a good cluster of fine, warm and sunny summers which makes that era seem like a "golden age" for summer weather.

Through the year it seems to be (compared to previously):

Spring is warmer, sunnier and drier
Summer has warmer nights, but mostly unremarkable days with short lived heat spikes. Also cloudy and sometimes damp most years - essentially "tepid" weather from fairly low latitudes in the Atlantic.
Autumn is mild or warm, though varies as to whether it's wet or dry
Winter is mild and generally snowless.

So a lot of mild/warm in there, but only in the spring is it accompanied by drier and sunnier weather.

 

[Essan]

Global warming also manifests in winter. Indeed, it's notable how rare snow (and even a decent frost) has become in England, such that a spell of weather such as we are now experiencing has become so remarkable. A snow free winter is now the norm

Meanwhile, elsewhere this winter:

Heat in the southern U.S. is off the charts to start December

Numerous daily and some monthly records have fallen

The South has roasted to start December, with record-breaking warmth from Houston to Tallahassee.

High temperatures have reached well into the 80s, some 15 to 20 degrees above normal, more like September than the first winter month. Occurrences of such record-breaking warmth are increasing worldwide because of human-caused climate change.

Over the past week, more than three-dozen high-temperature records have fallen across the South. Because of abnormally mild nights, more than 100 record warm lows — only dipping into the 60s — have occurred.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/12/09/south-record-warmth-heat-december/

Alaska’s northernmost city posts warmest winter temperature on record

Despite total darkness, Utqiagvik hit 40 degrees Monday — its highest temperature ever observed between November and March

At the northern tip of Alaska, the city of Utqiagvik on Monday reached its warmest temperature ever observed between November and March, when the mercury shot up to 40 degrees — 36 degrees above the norm.

The record-crushing high temperature was six degrees higher than the next warmest December reading ever measured there, in more than a century of records. It marked yet another exceptional extreme event in a region that is rapidly warming because of human-caused climate change.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/12/06/alaska-winter-temperature-record-utqiagvik/

It's also worth remembering that global warming does not mean everywhere gets warmer all the time - not only can colder conditions still occur, but it's even possible for some parts of the world to become colder on average. Also, we can experience more/heavier snow (for same reason as we do with rain - because of more moisture in the atmosphere).

 

[brad465]

Global warming also manifests in winter. Indeed, it's notable how rare snow (and even a decent frost) has become in England, such that a spell of weather such as we are now experiencing has become so remarkable. A snow free winter is now the norm

Nearly 4 years ago we also saw 20C in February for the first time on record:

UK basks in warmest February day on record

The Met Office records 20.6C in Ceredigion - the first UK temperature over 20C reached in winter.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK is experiencing its warmest February day on record, with the Met Office reporting a temperature of 20.6C (69.08F) at Trawsgoed, Ceredigion.
It is the first time a temperature of over 20C has been recorded in winter.
It breaks the UK's record for February, set when the temperature reached 19.7C in Greenwich in 1998.
A new English record has also been set with temperatures rising to 20.1C in Hampton Water Works, in south-west London.

It is the second day running the Welsh record has been broken.
On Sunday, temperatures reached 19.1C, breaking the record of 18.6C (65.48F) set 29 years ago in the south Wales village of Velindre.
The BBC Weather Centre says Tuesday's weather conditions are likely to be very similar.
It says to expect a largely sunny, but chilly, start with frost in places. The rest of the day will become increasingly warm with lengthy spells of sunshine, threatening February temperature records once again.
The warmest areas are likely to be around the London area and across north and west Wales again.

 

[najaB]

The elliptical orbit of our warming sun which is sometimes further away, and the approx 13 year sunspot activity cycle (meaning heat levels from sun vary) probably affect the jet stream and thus our weather more than some realise.

I'm sure that none of the thousands of climate scientists around the world, of whom more than 97% agree that anthropogenic climate change is a thing, have realised that the sun goes through a sunspot cycle.

 

[Howardh]

Glad this coldwave is about to end. Twice now I've woken up to no boiler, had to go outside and defrost the condensation pipe (first time in 5 years) despite the lagging, which I admit is minimal.. Need to address that when it's warmer! Up here in Bolton snow is quite rare in December, so he've had it now two years running, although last year it was a fairly miserable effort.