Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[nw1]

Would any constituency really want Raab

Look at Reigate's recent MPs and the answer could well be Yes

 

[jfollows]

It's not really a Boris thing to do, stand in something he's unlikely to win. Odds-on he'll lose it - and he desperately wants to win whatever he competes in.

I'm totally with you on on this one, in terms of hopeless causes it's hard to think of worse ones, and it's not in his character to do things that are doomed to fail.

 

[WizCastro197]

I would be amazed if Johnson stands again in Uxbridge as I really don't expect that to be held by the Tories.

I rather expect him to be parachuted into Dorries' seat, or possibly Reigate (which is also being vacated), though he may face a battle with his Brexit-buddy Raab for that one.

Not having him as MP! Help!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Dec 2022 ==

Look at Reigate's recent MPs and the answer could well be Yes

Reigate I think has a 20,000 majority so it could well be held against but who knows. Hopefully not anyway

 

[nw1]

Not having him as MP! Help!

Mind you someone who has previously publicly defended Imran Ahmad-Khan can't be much better. And the one before that, Gardiner, joined the Referendum Party, which was basically the same thing as UKIP.

But just to reassure you, I have not heard any suggestion this will happen. It's just a theory on my part: Esher doesn't look safe for Raab, and I'd guess he'd be looking elsewhere for a safer seat. Same with Johnson and Reigate, though I think someone else on the forum originally suggested that.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

New seat details at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Implied majority in 2019 on the new boundaries of 8,193 becomes a Labour ~500 vote majority over all other votes - however a much bigger margin of ~8,000 over second place (Boris) so a complete turn-around. On today's predictions, who knows what 2024 will be?

My reading of that is that the Uxbridge seat will probably be quite marginal, and could go either way in 2024. The current prediction of the seat heavily going Labour is presumably based on current opinion polls which have the Tories in a state of near-collapse. Governing parties usually recover ground in the year or two before an election, and the Government is looking a lot more stable now than it was for most of this year, so I'd expect the Tories to recover a lot of ground over the next 2 years (although not enough to stop Labour winning the next election)

 

[DC1989]

Boris will probably hang onto that seat, and with 200 tory MPs likely voted out he would probably win the next leadership contest at a canter

 

[WizCastro197]

Mind you someone who has previously publicly defended Imran Ahmad-Khan can't be much better. And the one before that, Gardiner, joined the Referendum Party, which was basically the same thing as UKIP.

But just to reassure you, I have not heard any suggestion this will happen. It's just a theory on my part: Esher doesn't look safe for Raab, and I'd guess he'd be looking elsewhere for a safer seat.

Yes. You are right. It hasn’t been a great past for Reigate.

Esher definitely isn’t safe at all, with a 3,000 majority or perhaps less. I think I may be confusing it with Guildford which is also scathingly a Conservative seat.

Is anyone aware whether the Chester’s by election results will be announced tonight or tomorrow. I can’t find any articles on the Times and BBC. EDIT: Never mind I found one on The Times.

Polling stations opened at 7am and close at 10pm, with the result expected in the early hours of tomorrow.

From the times, I am unaware if the article is behind paywall or not but I’ll link it anyway since it’s forum rules


Sunak faces first by-election test in Chester

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[nw1]

Boris will probably hang onto that seat, and with 200 tory MPs likely voted out he would probably win the next leadership contest at a canter

I'd rather hope the Tories would get the message from the likely electoral defeat.

Theory I've heard most is Mordaunt will be the likely leader. Who knows, but I rather suspect they'll want to put the past four and a half years to bed by then and regroup on a more centre-right platform for the 2029 election.

Mind you knowing Boris and his chameleon-like politics, maybe he will lead them to victory in 2029 on a cuddly centre-right internationalist platform.

 

[david1212]

.... More news not helping Sunak

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ocal-tories-will-stand-next-general-election/

Certainly as things stand now for me the surprise would be if Jihnson did not stand for a seat and most likely somewhere London or home counties.
If Sunak is still PM while Richmond in recent times is a very safe conservative seat ishould there be there a perceived significant change I would expect him to stand safer seat.

 

[WizCastro197]

Certainly as things stand now for me the surprise would be if Jihnson did not stand for a seat and most likely somewhere London or home counties.
If Sunak is still PM while Richmond in recent times is a very safe conservative seat ishould there be there a perceived significant change I would expect him to stand safer seat.

Why would he stand in London? It is pretty much an entire Labour and Lib Dem area especially when the next election comes around. Not many seats in London that are conservative are vacant if that. It could be none at all.

 

[birchesgreen]

Boris will probably hang onto that seat, and with 200 tory MPs likely voted out he would probably win the next leadership contest at a canter

Would he want to be leader though knowing that he would be just Leader of the Opposition for years? If Labour win really big (1997 levels at least) it would likely be the 2030s before the Tories could be back.

 

[Busaholic]

Couple of reasons I would have thought. He didn't spend weeks proclaiming his innocence, a few 'mutterances' about it being 'minor' but that is it (the Labour candidate was in place within days); on the contrary, Pincher is still around, and Paterson is now going to go to the European Court (or something similar with 'European' in it) - you can't drag them off the stage. Also, the resignation happened the day after Truss resigned. The story has been about Conservative infighting (still is), and no-one had ever heard of him.

I can see absolutely no reason why the conduct of the previous MP, which in no way affected his constituents, would influence the casting of votes for his potential successor, or is Mary Whitehouse alive and well and living in the City of Chester?

 

[Kite159]

I'm surprised he is standing again and isn't going to 'retire*' to make an easy living on the after dinner speech circuit

(* Dressed up so he can spend more time with baby)

 

[Gloster]

I'm surprised he is standing again and isn't going to 'retire*' to make an easy living on the after dinner speech circuit

Just because he is an MP doesn’t mean that he has to do anything tedious like attending sittings. He will turn up occasionally, either to make things difficult for his successors or to prepare the ground for his return as saviour of the nation.

 

[Typhoon]

I can see absolutely no reason why the conduct of the previous MP, which in no way affected his constituents, would influence the casting of votes for his potential successor, or is Mary Whitehouse alive and well and living in the City of Chester?

Two things - first, sections of the media can make a lot of, in particular, sexual misconduct. Second, it is perhaps less about their misdemeanor, more about their refusal to accept it. Paterson, for instance, could have accepted the suspension; he'd have been back in no-time, hardly anyone will have noticed; instead, it is dragging on and on. And, unless he is found completely innocent, this will harm his reputation still further. (The words 'mountain' and 'molehill' come to mind). Pincher, staying on. has not helped his or his party's cause. Of course, if he is innocent, he has every right to but this, too, is dragging on and resulted in publicity for previous misconduct. His real 'offence' was probably to accept the Deputy Chief Whip role, knowing that his past indiscretions were not a secret (and Johnson was damned stupid for offering him it).
In my opinion, the former MP for Chester did the right thing in resigning - quickly, and in this case, I agree it should have had minimal impact at the ballot box.

MPs make the law so need to keep rigidly to the law and be seen to do so, and, when they fail to do so, must accept the consequences in good grace. It is the failure of some members to adhere to this that gives MPs in general a bad name.

 

[The Ham]

An interesting story from the Guardian about a recent urgent question on the railways:

Urgent question on railways chaos sends the Tories running for the hills | John Crace

As frustration builds over failing services, the government accepted something must be done. They just don’t know what

www.theguardian.com

So it was no surprise that on Thursday Labour was granted an urgent question to see if there was any chance that the performance of these two rail franchises might improve anytime soon. Similar UQs about the railways get asked at least once a month and we were now long overdue. Not that anyone was expecting any more enlightening answers. But it was important to let everyone know that someone was bothered about it. This time it was junior transport minister, Huw Merriman, who was left with the unenviable job of trying to explain why the government still hadn’t been able to make the trains run. Not just on time, but at all. And, to his credit, Merriman made a better fist of it than other useful idiots, AKA ministerial sacrifices, sent out to defend the indefensible in the Commons while the secretary for state runs for cover in Whitehall. He didn’t just plead stupidity for 45 minutes while trying to wind down the clock, as most do. Not only did he actually appear to know something about trains, he also appeared to care. Unheard of. It won’t catch on. He started by making no excuses. The services were completely unacceptable. Something must be done, though he wasn’t quite sure what. The thing was, it was all a bit of a mess. There had been more people than usual who had called in sick over the past six months. And those who normally volunteered to do overtime had chosen instead just to work their regular hours. How very inconsiderate of them. Sadly though, Merriman was unable to join the dots. Perhaps Avanti and the TransPennine Express should rethink a business model that depended on only a few people going off sick and the rest filling in for them on overtime. How about actually employing a few more people to fill the vacancies? Heaven forbid. Or how about even accepting that Avanti and TPE had had their day in the sun and getting someone else in to run the franchises?

Whilst fairly anti Tory in tone, it at least gives credit to the minister for not just listing excuses and therefore appearing to care about the lack of rail services and looking like they may actually do something.

Unfortunately it goes on to say:

Especially when Tory MP after Tory MP weighed in to say that train services were in a terrible state all across the country and that they wanted something done about it. Merriman ran his fingers through his hair and promised everyone a one to one meeting with him to discuss what they weren’t going to do to make things better. He won’t have a lot of spare time between now and Christmas.

Which means even the Tories are understanding that something needs to change, they are just not sure what to do.

Some might suggest fixing industrial relations, which would likely help (but then likely have consequences on other strikes - like the nurses), but it's likely to need something more significant is also needed.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Labour’s win in Chester by just under 11k majority and by over 39% on a 13.75% swing, was the 6th biggest By-Election swing post war and the biggest since Wirral South in 1997.

This is an amazing result for my party and with me running in a marginal Council seat in Wolverhampton next year, makes me more optimistic.

 

[takno]

Which means even the Tories are understanding that something needs to change, they are just not sure what to do.

Some might suggest fixing industrial relations, which would likely help (but then likely have consequences on other strikes - like the nurses), but it's likely to need something more significant is also needed.

I think a lot of Tory backbenchers have just found out that all the cancellation figures they've been fed excluded cancellations the night before, and they don't especially like being blatantly lied to for years.

 

[Gloster]

An interesting story from the Guardian about a recent urgent question on the railways:

Urgent question on railways chaos sends the Tories running for the hills | John Crace

As frustration builds over failing services, the government accepted something must be done. They just don’t know what

www.theguardian.com

Whilst fairly anti Tory in tone, it at least gives credit to the minister for not just listing excuses and therefore appearing to care about the lack of rail services and looking like they may actually do something.

Unfortunately it goes on to say:



Which means even the Tories are understanding that something needs to change, they are just not sure what to do.

Some might suggest fixing industrial relations, which would likely help (but then likely have consequences on other strikes - like the nurses), but it's likely to need something more significant is also needed.

It should be remembered that this was the Political Sketch: anything it says is going to be a bit tongue in cheek.

 

[brad465]

Javid standing down at next election, must be the biggest name so far to declare this:

Sajid Javid to stand down as MP at next election

The former chancellor and health secretary is the latest Tory MP to say they will quit Parliament.

www.bbc.co.uk

Former chancellor and health secretary Sajid Javid has said he will stand down as an MP at the next general election.
Mr Javid, MP for the Worcestershire seat of Bromsgrove, announced on Twitter he had made the decision "after much reflection".
He joins 11 other sitting Conservative MPs who have said they will not stand at the next election, expected in 2024.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Labour’s win in Chester by just under 11k majority and by over 39% on a 13.75% swing, was the 6th biggest By-Election swing post war and the biggest since Wirral South in 1997.

I don't think 6'th biggest swing can be correct. The Wikipedia by-election records page lists dozens of by-elections with 20%+ swings. 13.75% doesn't even come close to featuring.

In terms of result - a 13.75% swing from 2019 would, if repeated across the country, give something similar to Tony Blair's 1997 win. So it's definitely not good news for the Tories, even allowing for the usual Government recovery that tends to happen as a general election draws near. On the other hand, it's not a disaster for them on the scale of Tiverton/Honiton or North Shropshire. Seems to suggest normal politics is starting to return after the chaos of the last year or so.

 

[KashmireHawker]

I don't think 6'th biggest swing can be correct. The Wikipedia by-election records page lists dozens of by-elections with 20%+ swings. 13.75% doesn't even come close to featuring.

In terms of result - a 13.75% swing from 2019 would, if repeated across the country, give something similar to Tony Blair's 1997 win. So it's definitely not good news for the Tories, even allowing for the usual Government recovery that tends to happen as a general election draws near. On the other hand, it's not a disaster for them on the scale of Tiverton/Honiton or North Shropshire. Seems to suggest normal politics is starting to return after the chaos of the last year or so.

This is the 6th biggest Conservative to Labour swing post-war for clarity.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

This is the 6th biggest Conservative to Labour swing post-war for clarity.

Ah OK, that seems more plausible. Do you have a source for that?

Checking the wikipedia list I linked to, I see five 20%+ Tory-Labour swings:

• 29.2% in Dudley West (1994)
• 23.1% in Dagenham (1994)
• 22.1% in SE Staffs (1996)
• 22.0% in Barking (1994)
• 21.3% in Mid Staffs (1990)

So if there was nothing else between 14% and 20%, that would make Chester the 6th biggest. Unfortunately the wikipedia list only lists swings above 20%, so doesn't allow checking that range.

 

[Typhoon]

Javid standing down at next election, must be the biggest name so far to declare this:

Sajid Javid to stand down as MP at next election

The former chancellor and health secretary is the latest Tory MP to say they will quit Parliament.

www.bbc.co.uk

Pretty safe Conservative (even parts of the town where I might have expected to have a Labour councillor, don't). (My knowledge of the area is over ten years old).

Javid will have no problem obtaining extremely well-paid employment (and may even return to being a non-dom) and has probably reached as far up the greasy pole as he is ever likely to.

 

[takno]

Pretty safe Conservative (even parts of the town where I might have expected to have a Labour councillor, don't). (My knowledge of the area is over ten years old).

Javid will have no problem obtaining extremely well-paid employment (and may even return to being a non-dom) and has probably reached as far up the greasy pole as he is ever likely to.

IIRC Bromsgrove hasn't been anything other than Tory since a by-election win in the 1970s. The proximity to Birmingham mean it's not quite a traditional Tory shire constituency anymore, but I'd imagine it would take a really dramatic national swing to Labour for it to change hands. Having being passed over for the emergency chancellor role, I'd guess Javid just sees no real opportunity in government and wants to go back to a lower profile higher-paid job in finance. Can't say I blame him tbh.

 

[Thirteen]

Javid will probably go back to banking or some CEO role. 14 years is still good innings though.

 

[david1212]

Sajid Javid to stand down as MP at next election

The former chancellor and health secretary is the latest Tory MP to say they will quit Parliament.

www.bbc.co.uk

Pretty safe Conservative (even parts of the town where I might have expected to have a Labour councillor, don't). (My knowledge of the area is over ten years old).

Away from town and HS2 will not be running for several years but an option for Johnson?

Why would he stand in London? It is pretty much an entire Labour and Lib Dem area especially when the next election comes around. Not many seats in London that are conservative are vacant if that. It could be none at all.

May I'm wrong but I think he would not want to be far from London for meetings aka parties etc.

Would he want to be leader though knowing that he would be just Leader of the Opposition for years? If Labour win really big (1997 levels at least) it would likely be the 2030s before the Tories could be back.

Probably not but he will not believe in anything other than the Tories winning.

 

[Kite159]

Labour’s win in Chester by just under 11k majority and by over 39% on a 13.75% swing, was the 6th biggest By-Election swing post war and the biggest since Wirral South in 1997.

This is an amazing result for my party and with me running in a marginal Council seat in Wolverhampton next year, makes me more optimistic.

Other than the large drop of labour voters from 27,082 in 2019 to 17,309 yesterday.

Shows that even the voters for the party of restrictions couldn't even be bothered to vote

 

[WelshBluebird]

Shows that even the voters for the party of restrictions couldn't even be bothered to vote

Its a byelection. They always get a lower turnout.
In this case turnout was 41% compared to 71% in 2019.
Which is why the percentages matter rather than the number of voters, and in this case Labour increased their percentage lead by a decent amount.

 

[JamesT]

Its a byelection. They always get a lower turnout.
In this case turnout was 41% compared to 71% in 2019.
Which is why the percentages matter rather than the number of voters, and in this case Labour increased their percentage lead by a decent amount.

Though if you're looking forward to the next general election then the number of voters do matter. Labour's vote was reduced by ~10K compared to the previous election, whereas the Conservatives was ~15K. The crystal ball gazing is working out how many of those just couldn't be bothered this time and will return, versus those who have given up on the party completely.