Knock-on delays, how far can they go?

[Killingworth]

Try following this one. Sorry it's not totally in sequence but shows how one little problem reverberates around the network.

I was at Dore & Totley station this morning where passengers were waiting for the 10.53 into Sheffield, 2S78, the Northern 9.42 from Piccadilly. At 10.51 it was announced and showing on the CIS as on time, a fact that was attracting positive comments as Dore has an unhappy reputation for consistently featuring in the worst 100 stations in the country for timely trains. It's not whether the train will be late, but by how much - and if TPE whether it will run at all.

However EMR's westbound IR62, their 6.51 4 car 158 from Norwich to Liverpool, came into the station about 10.52, and slowly stopped. (158858 and another.) No stop booked and no signal to stop at. Driver alighted, walked to the other end, awaited a signal, and returned to Sheffield. See; https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:P53259/2022-11-29/detailed

It was 39 minutes late by the time it got back into Sheffield at 11.16 and cancelled due to a problem with the on-board safety systems (M0).Not much help for those wanting to get to Manchester and Liverpool, but what followed?

Northern's 2 car delayed 2S78 was due into Sheffield at 10.59 but arrived at 11.19. It set off back to Manchester as 2S79 (due out at 11.14) at 11.22, only 8 minutes down. Excellent platform work there, but was seemingly held before Dore Station Junction arriving at Dore 11 minutes late at 11.31 and at Piccadilly 11 minutes late.

It was waiting for TPE 5B73 Nova 3 from Cleethorpes to Piccadilly to overtake (ECS to wind people up more) and that growled through Dore at 11.28, it too having been held up both arriving at Sheffield and again at Dore Station Junction.

Following Northern's eastbound 2S78 was 6G65 from Earles Sidings to Walsall Freight Terminal. It should have left Earles at 9.19 but departed 72 minutes down at 10.31 to follow the Northern service. It then had to wait at Grindleford before entering Totley Tunnel, to be held again at Dore West Junction for a path to go south, finally clearing Dore South Junction at 11.24, 95 minutes late. It crawled up into Bradway tunnel but reached its final destination on time.

This, of course delayed services on the Midland mainline, both north and south, but in the queue eastbound along the Hope Valley was TPE's 10.18, 1B72, Manchester - Cleethorpes which was running close to time at Bamford but passed Dore West 23 minutes down and Dore Station Junction at 11.26. (It maintained about that until Scunthorpe where it was terminated due to signal failure.)

Meanwhile Cross Country Edinburgh - Plymouth 1V52 that was on time at Sheffield was 14 minutes late at 11.09 at Dore Station Junction, arriving at Penzance 23 minutes late.

East Midlands 1C41 Sheffield - St Pancras left Sheffield at 11.01 on time but passed Dore Station Junction 11 minutes late at 11.15, finally arriving at St Pancras 31 minutes late.

I'll leave others to follow this further but the TPE, Northern, Cross Country and EMR London services delayed by this mishap in the Sheffield suburbs will have delayed others across the country, on top of other reasons for delays. Follow all the rippling minutes lost across the network starting from this hour around Dore Station Junction; https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...2022-11-29/1104?stp=WVS&show=all&order=actual

Now if the double track had been restored and Dore & Totley station's second 6 car platform been operational this situation would have been less serious, and if the longer Dore chord were complete even less so. If one of the Dore platforms were made bi-directional there would be yet more flexibility. But the track work and station platforms due originally to be complete in 2018 may not now be ready until late 2023 or early 2024 - but won't be bi-directional.

This is why we need more investment around choke points before reopening most of the long closed lines. We have to make what's still open work a lot, lot better as a priority.

 

[ComUtoR]

In distance I think it would be hard to calculate.

In minutes; delays over 1k minutes aren't unheard of.

 

[SqUaShIe P]

Interesting reading the OP, I had a similar situation at Dore and Totley years ago when I was a new driver. I was working a Morning peak TPE 170 from Sheffield to Manchester. I had an issue with dragging brakes after departing Sheffield. I was booked to call at Dore and Totley. Managed to make it into the platform at Dore and Totley, and tried to rectify the fault there. After around 30 mins, I still couldn't get the brakes to fully release so the train was Terminated at Dore. Once all the passengers were off, I'd been in the platform for around 40 mins. I went empty back to Sheffield. The train that ran behind me from Sheffield was the Northern stopper to Manchester, and whilst I was in the platform at Dore, The Northern stopper was blocking the Up line towards Chesterfield and London. As I drove back to Sheffield, I passed a London bound EMT, A south bound XC, another EMT to London, And EMT to Liverpool and another south bound XC. All of them were stuck behind the Northern 142 to Manchester. About a week later, I saw my manager and he mentioned the delay cost from that day. He told me it was over £25,000 in delay minutes, and said the furthest knock on delays were a SWT service near Southampton and a ScotRail train near Edinburgh, around 12 hours after my initial train fault.
Soooo, The knock on can pretty much spread across the whole country and last for hours.
I really hope the double tracking and new platform at Dore and Totley eliminate this pinch point.

 

[The Planner]

Only 39 minutes were attributed to this, 1R62 was reported with brake issues. 2O82 was the furthest train attributed with minutes at Oxford Road. 1V52 was reactionary attributed to late 6M61 which was due to a track circuit failure.

In distance I think it would be hard to calculate.

In minutes; delays over 1k minutes aren't unheard of.

1000 minutes is tiny, there were over 100 incidents alone on the LNE last year over 1000 minutes. The de-wirement at Biggleswade in August was up to 11700 minutes. A points failure at New St yesterday has got 2400 minutes and counting.

 

[Killingworth]

In distance I think it would be hard to calculate.

In minutes; delays over 1k minutes aren't unheard of.

In the case I've used the direct delays stretched to Penzance, London, Livrrpool and Cleethorpes but will almost certainly have gone further when those delayed trains then delayed other trains in their turn.

It seems the impacts of one small incident are iinadequately understood across the railway or are they swept under the carpet?

 

[Falcon1200]

But the track work and station platforms due originally to be complete in 2018 may not now be ready until late 2023 or early 2024 - but won't be bi-directional.

But at least the work is being done, eventually.

It seems the impacts of one small incident are inadequately understood across the railway or are they swept under the carpet?

The railway fully understands how delays occur, and they are certainly not swept under the carpet, serious questions will be asked of any incident causing huge delay (which is part of the purpose of the much-maligned Delay Attribution system). The problem is, on an extremely busy and congested network, how can such disruption be avoided? To give an example from my experience some years ago:

A track circuit (TC) failure on the Up (southbound) East Coast Main line in Scotland caused direct delays of up to 10 minutes, resulting in trains heading to Kings Cross, Leeds, Birmingham etc running late (and there is no spare time in the schedules to enable such delays to be recovered). One of the late running Scottish trains delayed a Scarborough-Liverpool service at York, that train then ran late all the way to Liverpool, delaying other services and losing more time itself. Its late arrival at Liverpool meant a late start to its return working, which again delayed other trains and lost more time itself. So reactionary delays to the TC failure were still occurring late into the evening and the eventual total was hundreds of, if not more than a thousand, minutes! Knowing that at some point I would be asked to explain how one simple fault had caused such massive delay, I kept a close eye on the reactionary delay being attributed to our incident, but I could not see how the train service could have been managed any differently.

 

[FGW_DID]

I once saw a ‘spider diagram’ for delays attributed to and reactionary to an ECS move which departed the old Reading Triangle Sidings to Reading Station 5 late. One of the furthest services affected was at Glasgow Queen Street!
I think the ECS had delayed a northbound XC service which in turn had delayed a freight service somewhere up north and so on.

 

[ComUtoR]

1000 minutes is tiny, there were over 100 incidents alone on the LNE last year over 1000 minutes. The de-wirement at Biggleswade in August was up to 11700 minutes. A points failure at New St yesterday has got 2400 minutes and counting.

Yikes ! Our highest was a little over 2k when I checked recently.

It seems the impacts of one small incident are iinadequately understood across the railway or are they swept under the carpet?

I've never seen distance or any form of mileage measured as a listed metric. Minutes/Cost are well known and are strict performance measures.

I guarantee we understand and it's often talked about across this forum how a single minute can spread like wildfire.

 

[najaB]

I once saw a ‘spider diagram’ for delays attributed to and reactionary to an ECS move which departed the old Reading Triangle Sidings to Reading Station 5 late. One of the furthest services affected was at Glasgow Queen Street!

I guarantee we understand and it's often talked about across this forum how a single minute can spread like wildfire.

Hence the "Because of knock-on delays" answer to the oft-asked "Why couldn't they hold the train for a few minutes?" question.

 

[class 9]

O911 1V50 Leeds to Plymouth HST, bang on time arriving at Leeds, departed 3 late waiting signal, then was 25mins down by Bristol PW, all due to following late runners and subsequent on time stoppers, only 6 late into Plymouth though.

 

[6Gman]

Baking hot day. Exeter St Davids. Train to Penzance announced 30 minutes late "due to flooding". Waiting passengers look at each other in astonishment and disbelief.

I knew the train had come from Dundee.

Wet in Scotland.

 

[306024]

On the other hand you can get some creative delay attribution if you don’t watch it. Recall some delays in Glasgow being attributed due to a late running Sudbury to Marks Tey train once. Didn’t take long to find it was totally spurious.

 

[Bald Rick]

My specialist subject. Well, one of them.

there are delay maps produced for big incidents, and there are regular incidents that can cause reactionary delay all over the country. any delay that can affect cross country or TPE or the Norwich - Liverpool can quickly knock on to Cornwall, Scotland, Anglia, etc.

On the other hand you can get some creative delay attribution if you don’t watch it. Recall some delays in Glasgow being attributed due to a late running Sudbury to Marks Tey train once. Didn’t take long to find it was totally spurious.

that’s very likely due to a typo by the delay attribution team member doing the allocation. Just one difit out can cause all sorts of isues!

 

[306024]

that’s very likely due to a typo by the delay attribution team member doing the allocation. Just one difit out can cause all sorts of isues!

I see what you did there

 

[Bald Rick]

I see what you did there

that was deliberate, h0nest!

 

[ComUtoR]

My specialist subject. Well, one of them.

Just a quickie then....

Why would "approach control signals". Be kicked back to TOC attribution and not attributed to Network Rail. ?

Is it true that if you press SG when stopped, it prevents getting the attribution but if you don't SG then your stuck with the delay ?

Disclosure, I have a small but vested interest in the subject at the moment.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why would "approach control signals". Be kicked back to TOC attribution and not attributed to Network Rail. ?

I guess it depends how long the train concerned was in the section for. If the signalling system was working correctly, and the driver took an extra long time to go through it compared to normal, then it would get attributed to the driver.

Is it true that if you press SG when stopped, it prevents getting the attribution but if you don't SG then your stuck with the delay ?

I don’t think so. There may be some circumstances where a signaller forgets a train, doesn’t give the road, and where the driver does not remind the signaller (via SG or anything else), that the attribution is split.

 

[Falcon1200]

Recall some delays in Glasgow being attributed due to a late running Sudbury to Marks Tey train once. Didn’t take long to find it was totally spurious.

Perhaps an effort to ensure delay was attributed to anyone but us! Although as @Bald Rick says, possibly just a simple mistake.

 

[MadMac]

I stumbled across this gem while searching for a similar one about the Master Cutler.

 

[Javelin_55]

Just a quickie then....

Why would "approach control signals". Be kicked back to TOC attribution and not attributed to Network Rail. ?

Is it true that if you press SG when stopped, it prevents getting the attribution but if you don't SG then your stuck with the delay ?

Disclosure, I have a small but vested interest in the subject at the moment.

At my TOC, any delay incurred running through signals set for approach control (additional to the time allowed in the schedule) is coded TW - driver adhering to the professional driving policy, i.e. defensive driving. A ton of TW codes in one area may prompt a driver re-brief or (in one exceptional case) a consultation for resignalling.

There may be some circumstances where a signaller forgets a train, doesn’t give the road, and where the driver does not remind the signaller (via SG or anything else), that the attribution is split.

Again I can only speak for my TOC, but the policy is that if the driver sees no obvious cause for the red, they should SG after 2 mins. Thus in the scenario above, 2 mins go to the signaller and any excess to the driver, with reasonable allowances given for the train to slow to a stand, the road to be given, and accelerating away.

There are some locations where a red must be SG'd immediately, and those signals are clearly marked as such - so all delay here should be going back to the signaller unless the driver doesn't make themselves known.

 

[Horizon22]

Evidently it depends where and what the issue is. A points issue at Birmingham New St (like in post #4) will probably effect most of the country to some degree. Likely that would affect a freight somewhere which presents late and impacts a passenger operation. The chain can stretch back 5+ trains to find the true root attribution.

At the same time, an incident can be fairly well self-contained, depending on where it is. During 1st Covid lockdown, the knock-on delays dropped significantly more than the actual delays did (in % terms) I believe as the extra capacity gave some slack to schedules and incidents.