Despite the government's announcement, should HS2 be cancelled?

[daodao]

Don't even get me started on her. She doesn't even live in the place from which the constituency gets its name, rather hanging out with the Cheshire set in Wilmslow.

Wilmslow is within the Tatton constituency, so the Right Honourable Esther McVey, MP does live in her constituency. Wilmslow will be adversely affected by withdrawal of the fast train service to London if HS2 phase 2b is built.

While the government has indicated its intention to proceed with EWR, HS2 phase 2b and NPR, it has given no indication of timescales. I suspect (and hope) that progress will be slow as there isn't the money to press full steam ahead.

Crewe is a 4-way branching point for long-distance trains from London. Given the current travel demand and provision on the WCML, the existing lines north of Crewe should be able to cope with the number of long-distance trains likely to be required and run (as distinct from those envisaged in the HS2 proposals) for quite a number of years following the opening of HS2 phases 1 and 2a. Building phase 2b of HS2, new lines for NPR and EWR east of Bedford can therefore be treated as "jam tomorrow".

 

[snowball]

Don't even get me started on her. She doesn't even live in the place from which the constituency gets its name, rather hanging out with the Cheshire set in Wilmslow. I'm more of a Tattonite than her and I don't even permanently live there anymore.

I don't like anything about McVey but I'm genuinely puzzled by your remarks here. The only Tatton I've heard of, apart from the constituency name, is Tatton Hall and Tatton Park. Isn't that posh enough for the Cheshire set?

 

[LOL The Irony]

Wilmslow is within the Tatton constituency, so the Right Honourable Esther McVey does live in her constituency.

Last time I checked, the area of Cheshire known as Tatton wasn't in Wilmslow. Wilmslow may very well be in the constituency of Tatton, but so is Northwich. Speaking of which, when Osborne was MP, he had the office in Tatton proper, with a 15 minute train journey from Northwich. Now Mrs failed children's TV presenter has them taking an hour bus ride, simply so she can be part of 'the set'.

Wilmslow will still be closer to a high speed service to London than Macclesfield, with that only getting a slight time saving over current timings. The Manchester Airport station will necessitate improved links between Wilmslow and the HS2 station. Even then, timing the trains right would lop at least a good 50 minutes off existing times.

Since you seem to like her and share her views, perhaps you can link arms and walk off into the sunset together when she gets the chop.

I don't like anything about McVey but I'm genuinely puzzled by your remarks here. The only Tatton I've heard of, apart from the constituency name, is Tatton Hall and Tatton Park. Isn't that posh enough for the Cheshire set?

Well it's not within the golden triangle, so clearly isn't posh enough for everyone's favourite But First This presenter.

 

[The Ham]

Wilmslow will be adversely affected by withdrawal of the fast train service to London if HS2 phase 2b is built.

Currently it's served by 6 fast direct services a day, the fastest of which takes 105 minutes (I assume that it's normally a better frequency than this, but the reduced timetable has impacted this).

Post HS2, even with a 25 minute journey time to Crewe and then the HS2 service taking 56 minutes, that allows a 25 minute change at Crewe and it still be as fast. Chances are there'll still be demand for a fast service which calls here between Manchester and Crewe, so chances are that leg of the journey could be quicker, increasing the allowable change time to still match the fastest existing journey time (also note that some of the services took longer than 105 minutes)..

However there'll be several services an hour between London/Crewe and a fairly decent frequency between Crewe/Wilmslow, to ensure that change times are likely to be comfortably less than 30 minutes.

That's assuming that there's zero direct services, which there could well still be, even if it's two a day. Which is probably sufficient for those who "must" have a direct service, whilst the vast majority of people would opt for the high frequency high speed of using HS2.

The reason people don't like changing trains is often down to the fact that they don't want to wait an hour if a connection is missed. If the next train is just 20 minutes away then it becomes a lot less of an issue for quite a lot of people. Obviously there will always be some who won't want to change, almost no matter what, however it's not likely to be a significant inconvenience for many.

Of course the main factor is how much would a ticket cost, well with lower staff and lease costs (as you need fewer staff and coaches to run the same frequency of service even with longer trains*) there's a good chance that use HS2 services would be cheaper than using any retained direct service.

* See my previous posts on this matter, although I'm willing to repeat the numbers again to demonstrate that this is the case and you are welcome to review and come back if you disagree with my reasoning.

 

[Purple Orange]

To those saying Wilmslow will lose out due to HS2, you could not be more wrong. ‘We’, as in Wilmslow residents and I, will have 3 tph to London taking 1 hour from Manchester Airport - it’s local to us. It’s more local to us than Piccadily is to much of Manchester, or Curzon Street, OOC & Euston are to most of Birmingham & London.

Nobody who lives in Wilmslow will get a train to Crewe or Piccadilly in order to go to London, Birmingham, Liverpool or Leeds. People will head directly to Manchester Airport, just as many in Wilmslow do generally anyway. It’s a 10-15 min drive.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Currently it's served by 6 fast direct services a day, the fastest of which takes 105 minutes (I assume that it's normally a better frequency than this, but the reduced timetable has impacted this).

It's usually 1tph and only calls at Crewe (but will additionally call at Stafford from the tt change). It's actually quicker from Manchester than the main route via Stoke under normal times.

To those saying Wilmslow will lose out due to HS2, you could not be more wrong. ‘We’, as in Wilmslow residents and I, will have 3 tph to London taking 1 hour from Manchester Airport - it’s local to us. It’s more local to us than Piccadily is to much of Manchester, or Curzon Street, OOC & Euston are to most of Birmingham & London.

Wilmslow is my nearest intercity station when at home and Manchester Airport wouldn't be any harder or slower to get to. The real losers are Stockport.

 

[HSTEd]

Currently it's served by 6 fast direct services a day, the fastest of which takes 105 minutes (I assume that it's normally a better frequency than this, but the reduced timetable has impacted this).

Post HS2, even with a 25 minute journey time to Crewe and then the HS2 service taking 56 minutes, that allows a 25 minute change at Crewe and it still be as fast. Chances are there'll still be demand for a fast service which calls here between Manchester and Crewe, so chances are that leg of the journey could be quicker, increasing the allowable change time to still match the fastest existing journey time (also note that some of the services took longer than 105 minutes)..

However there'll be several services an hour between London/Crewe and a fairly decent frequency between Crewe/Wilmslow, to ensure that change times are likely to be comfortably less than 30 minutes.

That's assuming that there's zero direct services, which there could well still be, even if it's two a day. Which is probably sufficient for those who "must" have a direct service, whilst the vast majority of people would opt for the high frequency high speed of using HS2.

The reason people don't like changing trains is often down to the fact that they don't want to wait an hour if a connection is missed. If the next train is just 20 minutes away then it becomes a lot less of an issue for quite a lot of people. Obviously there will always be some who won't want to change, almost no matter what, however it's not likely to be a significant inconvenience for many.

And all this is before we consider any esoteric arrangements that might be adopted to squeeze more money out of the capital investment.

You could do something more extreme like extending the Styal Line stoppers to Birmingham, or even London via Birmingham and flood them with advanced purchase tickets if you really wanted.

We are unlikely to be short of core paths now that the majority of the eastern branch options have been killed, at least for the near future.

 

[Chester1]

It's usually 1tph and only calls at Crewe (but will additionally call at Stafford from the tt change). It's actually quicker from Manchester than the main route via Stoke under normal times.

Wilmslow is my nearest intercity station when at home and Manchester Airport wouldn't be any harder or slower to get to. The real losers are Stockport.

They lose out on London and Birmingham train services. There is likely to be a significant boost to local services in the Stockport area. The Mid Cheshire line could support more services and stations, especially between Altrincham and Stockport but there is no capacity between Stockport and Piccadilly. Hazel Grove could support 4tph but it was a struggle to path 3tph. Stockport could support a service to Victoria, providing Reddish South and Denton with a real service. Currently 5tph of paths are reserved for Avanti and CrossCountry, meaning that paths for Northern services are heavily rationed and Sheffield services limited to 2tph.

 

[Watershed]

They lose out on London and Birmingham train services. There is likely to be a significant boost to local services in the Stockport area. The Mid Cheshire line could support more services and stations, especially between Altrincham and Stockport but there is no capacity between Stockport and Piccadilly. Hazel Grove could support 4tph but it was a struggle to path 3tph. Stockport could support a service to Victoria, providing Reddish South and Denton with a real service. Currently 5tph of paths are reserved for Avanti and CrossCountry, meaning that paths for Northern services are heavily rationed and Sheffield services limited to 2tph.

Stockport to Piccadilly is busy but the line itself still has spare capacity (which is how freight can slot through between the Mid Cheshire Line and Denton).

The main constraints are the Piccadilly station throat (which, unlike the plans for the adjacent HS2 station, is not grade separated) and Slade Lane Jn (again, not grade separated).

However I can't see either being grade separated within my lifetime - unless Phase 2b is scrapped!

 

[Chester1]

Stockport to Piccadilly is busy but the line itself still has spare capacity (which is how freight can slot through between the Mid Cheshire Line and Denton).

The main constraints are the Piccadilly station throat (which, unlike the plans for the adjacent HS2 station, is not grade separated) and Slade Lane Jn (again, not grade separated).

However I can't see either being grade separated within my lifetime - unless Phase 2b is scrapped!

By transferring 5tph from Piccadilly to Piccadilly HS2 there will be space for additional local services as long has tracks into Piccadilly HS2 continue to be kept seperate. Stockport will lose in some ways but benefit in others.

 

[Purple Orange]

They lose out on London and Birmingham train services. There is likely to be a significant boost to local services in the Stockport area. The Mid Cheshire line could support more services and stations, especially between Altrincham and Stockport but there is no capacity between Stockport and Piccadilly. Hazel Grove could support 4tph but it was a struggle to path 3tph. Stockport could support a service to Victoria, providing Reddish South and Denton with a real service. Currently 5tph of paths are reserved for Avanti and CrossCountry, meaning that paths for Northern services are heavily rationed and Sheffield services limited to 2tph.

Only a small proportion of Stockport loses out, not the whole lot. Many use Stockport as a transfer anyway, so staying on the local stopping service for another 10 mins to Piccadilly is no big deal. In fact I wouldn’t call it losing out either - it’s not like a Coventry or Wolverhampton situation.

 

[Purple Orange]

By transferring 5tph from Piccadilly to Piccadilly HS2 there will be space for additional local services as long has tracks into Piccadilly HS2 continue to be kept seperate. Stockport will lose in some ways but benefit in others.

Out of those 5, I’d expect at least 1 XC and 1 London service to be retained too.

 

[Chester1]

Out of those 5, I’d expect at least 1 XC and 1 London service to be retained too.

I agree its likely but the current plan appears to be to switch all 5 to HS2. Retaining 2, gaining 3 local services and having HS2 services via changing at Piccadilly would be a very good outcome for Stockport.

The basis for keeping 1tph of CrossCountry services would be national connectivity but I am less convinced there is a non political rationale for retaining a London service. If HS2 phase 2b is completed it will be faster to travel from Stockport to Piccadilly to change onto HS2 services than take a direct train to London that uses WCML until Lichfield. The current plan to terminate the service at Macclesfield would be more reliable and would enable a 4th additonal local service (or Sheffield service).

 

[Watershed]

I agree its likely but the current plan appears to be to switch all 5 to HS2. Retaining 2, gaining 3 local services and having HS2 services via changing at Piccadilly would be a very good outcome for Stockport.

The basis for keeping 1tph of CrossCountry services would be national connectivity but I am less convinced there is a non political rationale for retaining a London service. If HS2 phase 2b is completed it will be faster to travel from Stockport to Piccadilly to change onto HS2 services than take a direct train to London that uses WCML until Lichfield. The current plan to terminate the service at Macclesfield would be more reliable and would enable a 4th additonal local service (or Sheffield service).

I can't see there being no fast services at all between Wilmslow/Macclesfield/Stoke etc. and Manchester. So the XC/Avanti-type services will still need to exist in some guise, just perhaps operating at a lower frequency (i.e. roughly what's running right now!).

 

[Bald Rick]

I can't see there being no fast services at all between Wilmslow/Macclesfield/Stoke etc. and Manchester. So the XC/Avanti-type services will still need to exist in some guise, just perhaps operating at a lower frequency (i.e. roughly what's running right now!).

Is the right answer!

 

[Purple Orange]

I can't see there being no fast services at all between Wilmslow/Macclesfield/Stoke etc. and Manchester. So the XC/Avanti-type services will still need to exist in some guise, just perhaps operating at a lower frequency (i.e. roughly what's running right now!).

I expect that post HS2 the current 5 paths for Avanti and XC will be turn in to:

• 1 tph Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Milton Keynes, Watford, Euston
• 1 tph Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Congleton, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, New Street… stations onwards.
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Crewe stopper via Stockport
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Macclesfield stopper
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Sheffield

Wilmslow would still have the service to Cardiff under that scenario, and it wouldn’t have a need for a London service to call there any more.

 

[Watershed]

I expect that post HS2 the current 5 paths for Avanti and XC will be turn in to:

• 1 tph Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Milton Keynes, Watford, Euston
• 1 tph Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Congleton, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, New Street… stations onwards.
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Crewe stopper via Stockport
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Macclesfield stopper
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Sheffield

Wilmslow would still have the service to Cardiff under that scenario, and it wouldn’t have a need for a London service to call there any more.

Which is broadly what runs today, except with the Macclesfield stopper being a Stoke stopper. Curtailing it to Macclesfield would save a unit diagram and to be honest, this is the sort of cutback I'd expect to see in this May's timetable (if it weren't for the fact that XC calling at Congleton is a pain with double Voyagers).

Which Sheffield service are you referring to there? A stopper via Hazel Grove?

I'm unconvinced that Wilmslow would completely lose direct London services, although Avanti and indeed XC have shown very little interest in serving Wilmslow over the last couple of years.

 

[Purple Orange]

Which is broadly what runs today, except with the Macclesfield stopper being a Stoke stopper. Curtailing it to Macclesfield would save a unit diagram and to be honest, this is the sort of cutback I'd expect to see in this May's timetable (if it weren't for the fact that XC calling at Congleton is a pain with double Voyagers).

Which Sheffield service are you referring to there? A stopper via Hazel Grove?

I'm unconvinced that Wilmslow would completely lose direct London services, although Avanti and indeed XC have shown very little interest in serving Wilmslow over the last couple of years.

No, those stoppers would be in addition to the current service meaning via Stockport there would be:

• 2 x Piccadilly - Crewe via Stockport
• 1 x Piccadilly - Alderley Edge via Stockport
• 1 x Piccadilly - Macclesfield
• 1 x Piccadilly - Stoke

I suspect the 5th path vacated by Avanti & XC between Piccadilly & Stockport will be given to a fast service to Sheffield.

As for Wilmslow, I don’t see why Wilmslow station would need a London service taking 2 hours. The town will be served by 3 tph to London taking 1 hour from the airport. People who live there wont use it.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I'm unconvinced that Wilmslow would completely lose direct London services, although Avanti and indeed XC have shown very little interest in serving Wilmslow over the last couple of years.

For the faster route serving the more affluent area, it certainly is the ginger stepchild of the InterCity routes to Manchester. Are XC even bringing back their token service?

 

[PTR 444]

I expect that post HS2 the current 5 paths for Avanti and XC will be turn in to:

• 1 tph Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Milton Keynes, Watford, Euston
• 1 tph Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Congleton, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, New Street… stations onwards.
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Crewe stopper via Stockport
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Macclesfield stopper
• 1 tph Piccadilly-Sheffield

Wilmslow would still have the service to Cardiff under that scenario, and it wouldn’t have a need for a London service to call there any more.

What are you doing about the Manchester - Bristol XC service which runs to Birmingham via Crewe?

 

[Purple Orange]

What are you doing about the Manchester - Bristol XC service which runs to Birmingham via Crewe?

That service goes via Macclesfield & Stoke. There is/was a once per day XC service that ran via Crewe but, I don’t think it’s worth running that service on that branch to the detriment of Stoke branch which doesn’t benefit from HS2 in the same way.

 

[PTR 444]

That service goes via Macclesfield & Stoke. There is/was a once per day XC service that ran via Crewe but, I don’t think it’s worth running that service on that branch to the detriment of Stoke branch which doesn’t benefit from HS2 in the same way.

Ahh fair enough. I thought Bristol - Manchester went via Crewe all day but maybe that was a post-COVID change.

I expect when HS2 2a opens, all XC trains to Manchester will have to go via Stoke since there will be no room via Wilmslow with 3tph London - Manchester HS2 running that way.

 

[The Planner]

That service goes via Macclesfield & Stoke. There is/was a once per day XC service that ran via Crewe but, I don’t think it’s worth running that service on that branch to the detriment of Stoke branch which doesn’t benefit from HS2 in the same way.

Unless XC decide to bin off any route retention then I would suspect they keep the 1tpd via Crewe, probably Alsager too.

 

[Purple Orange]

Ahh fair enough. I thought Bristol - Manchester went via Crewe all day but maybe that was a post-COVID change.

I expect when HS2 2a opens, all XC trains to Manchester will have to go via Stoke since there will be no room via Wilmslow with 3tph London - Manchester HS2 running that way.

Exactly. That section between Crewe & Manchester is expected to see 3 London & 1 Cardiff fasts, plus 2 stoppers.