UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[trebor79]

I am hoping to buy a new car within the next 12 months but I am still unsure whether to go for a petrol or EV vehicle, and I don’t have a leaning either one way or another. I don’t think hybrid will fit the bill since you are effectively carrying two engines around with you which doesn’t really make sense. My annual mileage is circa 18,000 per year, a mixture of short and long journeys. I'm not considering the carbon footprint - there are arguments both ways as to which is better, so I will park this aspect.

Petrol -
Pros:

• Cheaper purchase price

Cons:

• ICE cars are unlikely to be developed any further given their limited saleroom life
• The number of petrol stations is likely to reduce overtime, and petrol prices could increase due to higher distribution costs (fewer filling stations to share the overheads) and reduction in competition between filling stations.
• Residual values may reduce if there is less demand for ICE cars

EV -
Pros:

• Cheaper running and maintenance costs

Cons:

• Range anxiety – whether assumed or real
• Lack of recharging points – I regularly do journeys of 300 miles via motorways, and don’t want to find charging points occupied or out of use, particularly at peak times like at summer holiday weekends or Bank Holidays.
• Lack of charging points when away from home, such as at holiday homes
• Why buy now when prices may reduce in the future or range could increase?
• Purchase cost under PCP could increase due to interest rate increases

I'm sure I am not the only one in this position - I really do not know wich way to turn.

EV. I had some of the same anxieties but none are really factors in the real world. My wife was even more nervous but is fully converted.
I'd never ever buy ICE again.

It literally costs pennies to run and is a *much* nicer drive than any ICE car.

Inflation and particular lithium and graphite.prices are soaring. They aren't going to get cheaper if you wait.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This, together with the fact that cheap power will likely be for short periods at random times means a proper EVSE is essential. Habitual 13A charging also isn't super safe and has led to consumer unit fires.
My EVSE is not connected via the main consumer unit to reduce the fire risk.

Nothing unsafe about habitual 13A charging, but it is indeed recommended that a dedicated supply with its own mini CU is installed to the outside socket rather than just plugging it into the ring main. This isn't in itself super expensive, it's very common to do it for e.g. electric showers or range cookers.

In my personal case I hardly use the car during the week so there's little to catch up. But most families don't do long trips every weekend or even most weekends.

 

[trebor79]

Nothing unsafe about habitual 13A charging, but it is indeed recommended that a dedicated supply is installed rather than just plugging it into the ring main.

In theory it should be fine. But there have been house fires caused due to poor connections in consumer units causing arcing and eventual ignition. The 3kW kettle for a few minutes gets away with it, the 3kW car charging for several hours not so much.
Personally it's not a risk I'd take.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Inflation and particular lithium and graphite.prices are soaring. They aren't going to get cheaper if you wait.

In real terms they absolutely are going to get cheaper and better. They are still quite early in their development bell curve, plus there is no real second hand market at the moment unless you want a Nissan Leaf or a Tesla. Give it 5-10 years and as with ICE cars there will be a thriving used market.

Inflation only really matters if you've got a bank account of savings to spend on one that is losing real terms value due to inflation being above interest rates.

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In theory it should be fine. But there have been house fires caused due to poor connections in consumer units causing arcing and eventual ignition. The 3kW kettle for a few minutes gets away with it, the 3kW car charging for several hours not so much.
Personally it's not a risk I'd take.

Did you not read this?

Nothing unsafe about habitual 13A charging, but it is indeed recommended that a dedicated supply is installed rather than just plugging it into the ring main.

Or did you just wilfully ignore it to make a non-point?

A dedicated 13A installation put in for car charging is not going to be less safe than a dedicated larger installation. That is just a ridiculous and ill informed suggestion.

 

[Bald Rick]

We still don't have the national grid capacity to charge up all these electric cars.

Yes we do. As others have shown. Besides it will be another 15 years before 80% of cars on the road are pure EVs, by which time we will have 3 x as much wind power as now, 2x as much solar, 10x as much grid storage, and much more grid transmission capacity both domestically and internationally.

I accept that there is no issue with the national grid but thats certainly not the case with the local grid where there simply isnt any where like enough capacity for every home to have a 7kw charger.

This will be a problem in some places, but for most the DNO does have capacity for this sort of electricity demand - after all it does cope with many home occupiers having their ovens / hobs on for half an hour or so at around 1800-2000 each night, which is more than 7kW. The main point behind this, though, is that on average, U.K. drivers will need to 5-6kWh into their EVs each day. My hunch (based on observation / discussion with the 15 or so people I know with EVs) is that almost all will either charge up at home roughly once a week, or use a charge point in the day at their place of work / car park / supermarket etc.

As an aside, two of my EV owning friends drive 25k+ miles a year (for work, in very different industries), and both wish they had switched earlier, and are never going back to ICE. One of them does 300 miles + a day every week at least, and is delighted he doesn’t have to go to petrol stations any more.

Again, only speculation from the National Grid, they are only estimating the hike in demand and in local areas it will vary hugely.

A report from the organisation that is responsible for managing overall electricity supply for the country is hardly speculation. Of course it includes estimates - that’s National Grid’s job and they would be negligent if they didn’t. What is speculation is comments suggesting that National Grid are wrong.

 

[jon0844]

The issue with your presumption that a granny charge suffices for day to day use is that you haven't considered how you cater for the longer trips. So I arrive home from a longer trip with 5% battery (because there's no point loading up at a public charger when I can charge for a tenth of the cost at home). Your granny charge model gets you though your day to do during the week, but now we come to the weekend and you want to go and visit great Auntie Mabel. Oh, you can't, or you have to buy more very expensive rapid charger electricity than you would if you charged at 7kW at home and we're able to "beat" the day to day use.

I've done one long trip this year. One.

If I had an EV and suddenly needed a rapid top up, paying for an overpriced fast charger once in a blue moon isn't going to bankrupt me.

Paying for more expensive fuel all the time isn't really sensible.

Obviously some people will drive longer trips more often, but then they'll pay for the 7KW charger.

For most people doing school runs and shopping trips etc, maybe 5-20 miles per day, they won't even need that extra expense - but may well get offered a cheap installation with their vehicle anyway.

As for paying more for faster charging, competition is already seeing some greedy companies reducing their rates. As more chargers are built, we may not even have that as an issue for all but places like service stations that, I am sure everyone has noticed, charge way more for petrol and diesel because of the 'convenience'.

 

[AM9]

In theory it should be fine. But there have been house fires caused due to poor connections in consumer units causing arcing and eventual ignition. The 3kW kettle for a few minutes gets away with it, the 3kW car charging for several hours not so much.
Personally it's not a risk I'd take.

The risk of any 3kW appliance causing overheating is mainly in the plug/socket interface. A 13A plug has flat contacts brushing against rectangular pins, and the more that the socket is mated and demated, the less reliable it is that a decent low resistance connection is made. There's plenty of 3kW immersion heaters hard wired into a fused connection unit that are on full load for hours on end. The 1.5mm flexible cable to the heater and 2.5mm (or 4mm) cable of the ring, (or mayybe a 4mm cable on a spur) to the consumer unit terminals are well rated to carry their fused value. That's provided it is installed properly and inspected occasionally.
Obviously, a 7kW charger will have it's own CU busbar connection or even it's own CU, but provided everything is installed and tested to the appropriate standard (which having poor connections in consumer units" clearly isn't), there should be no issues. But to the CU, a fully loaded ring circuit looks just like any other 30/32A load.

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From this thread it seems that the anti-EV conspiracy theorists are having quite a lot of success with their mis-information feeds.

 

[Class 317]

Average daily car usage is around 20-25 miles a day and we have around 31 million cars and vans .Can't remember the exact figures for either but it's in the right ball park.

The average EV efficiency is somewhere between 3 and 4 miles per KWH.

Combining the 2 figures an average EV driver will need to charge on a 7KW charger for around 1 hour a day if charged daily.

Smart chargers easily can shift that demand around so it want over load the national or local grid.

Indeed when we have 31 million EV's with vehicle to grid technology we essentially have 31 million energy storage systems to help balance the grid substantially reducing the risk of supply issues.

So many people are still stuck in a mindset focused sorely on supply side solutions and completely ignore that demand side solutions also have a huge role to play in equalising demand.

 

[trebor79]

Did you not read this?



Or did you just wilfully ignore it to make a non-point?

A dedicated 13A installation put in for car charging is not going to be less safe than a dedicated larger installation. That is just a ridiculous and ill informed suggestion.

Yes, if you put in a dedicated 13A circuit to a new mini CU in the meter box I agree that's absolutely as safe as doing the same for a 7kW EVSE. But if you're going to go to all that expense, you might as well spend a few hundred quid on the EVSE.
That or a lot of EV drivers like wasting money.

EV wouldn't work for me without the EVSE, and it still takes 2 to 3 days to fully charge after a long trip, provided I don't mess up and charge too much en route.

 

[AM9]

Yes, if you put in a dedicated 13A circuit to a new mini CU in the meter box I agree that's absolutely as safe as doing the same for a 7kW EVSE. But if you're going to go to all that expense, you might as well spend a few hundred quid on the EVSE.
That or a lot of EV drivers like wasting money.

I think the 13A socket issue is more about when visiting a household that doesn't own an EV.

 

[reddragon]

Again, only speculation from the National Grid, they are only estimating the hike in demand and in local areas it will vary hugely.

Doctor I don't believe you because it said in the Daily Fail . . . . .

Your posts are all lies made up by interest groups, move on to facts over Dogma

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EV - Cons:

• Range anxiety – whether assumed or real
• Lack of recharging points – I regularly do journeys of 300 miles via motorways, and don’t want to find charging points occupied or out of use, particularly at peak times like at summer holiday weekends or Bank Holidays.
• Lack of charging points when away from home, such as at holiday homes
• Why buy now when prices may reduce in the future or range could increase?
• Purchase cost under PCP could increase due to interest rate increases

I'm sure I am not the only one in this position - I really do not know wich way to turn.

• Range anxiety – whether assumed or real - Not Real
• Lack of recharging points – I regularly do journeys of 300 miles via motorways, and don’t want to find charging points occupied or out of use, particularly at peak times like at summer holiday weekends or Bank Holidays. - This can be a pain on summer weekends but not as bad as you think.
• Lack of charging points when away from home, such as at holiday homes - I only book holiday homes / hotels with charging, most sites allow you to filter.
• Why buy now when prices may reduce in the future or range could increase? - you can say that about anything so you have to look at the here & now
• Purchase cost under PCP could increase due to interest rate increases - Interest rates cannot changed, the deal is fixed. PCPs for EVs are now cheaper than ICEs due to residual values.

 

[Bletchleyite]

PCP is just financing depreciation. I really see no point in them at all. Might as well lease if you are happy not actually owning the car.

 

[trebor79]

PCP is just financing depreciation. I really see no point in them at all. Might as well lease if you are happy not actually owning the car.

In my case it's just a fiddle so I can let 3 years of rampant inflation take care of a big chunk of the cost for me. They're only charging me 2.9% and I went for the minimum mileage to keep the payments really low. I fully intend to make the balloon payment.
I wouldn't normally use a PCP but strange times.
I don't see the point in leasing. Usually about the same as a PCP, but you have no option to own and don't get paid the difference between the GFV and actual value when you hand it back. You're literally just buying someone else's asset for them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In my case it's just a fiddle so I can let 3 years of rampant inflation take care of a big chunk of the cost for me. They're only charging me 2.9% and I went for the minimum mileage to keep the payments really low. I fully intend to make the balloon payment.
I wouldn't normally use a PCP but strange times.
I don't see the point in leasing. Usually about the same as a PCP, but you have no option to own and don't get paid the difference between the GFV and actual value when you hand it back. You're literally just buying someone else's asset for them.

Interesting. So you are suspecting with high inflation that the value of the car by the end will be well in excess of the balloon payment which is presumably fixed at the point of signing the contract?

 

[trebor79]

Interesting. So you are suspecting with high inflation that the value of the car by the end will be well in excess of the balloon payment which is presumably fixed at the point of signing the contract?

Correct. That and I expect an annual uplift in my salary of more than 2.9% due to inflation putting upward pressure on pay rises.
£21k now is worth a lot more than £21k in 2025.

 

[reddragon]

Interesting. So you are suspecting with high inflation that the value of the car by the end will be well in excess of the balloon payment which is presumably fixed at the point of signing the contract?

Been working for me, EVs are going up in value, ICEs will go down.

I'm on interest free so it's win win. Value goes up, then I pay the balloon or sell early, it goes down I hand it back.

 

[Bletchleyite]

To be fair, if you are offered 0% finance it is almost always worth taking it whatever its form.

 

[RailWonderer]

Doctor I don't believe you because it said in the Daily Fail . . . . .

Your posts are all lies made up by interest groups, move on to facts over Dogma

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I don't read the DM. I am not an interest group just an EV skeptic, because I am always skeptical when something is being pushed so hard by governments, the media and local councils.

Eventually EVs sales will increase as more charging infrastructure comes about and the National Grid prepares, I accept that. I think only when the range and charging times improve and more variety of vehicles become EV (SUVs, estates, roadsters etc), they will really become more widespread since they are way cheaper to maintain without an engine and I suspect it will become like early digital cameras vs film compared to digital cameras today. They will improve and the case for owning an ICE will decline besides for enthusiasts.

 

[reddragon]

I don't read the DM. I am not an interest group just an EV skeptic, because I am always skeptical when something is being pushed so hard by governments, the media and local councils.

Eventually EVs sales will increase as more charging infrastructure comes about and the National Grid prepares, I accept that. I think only when the range and charging times improve and more variety of vehicles become EV (SUVs, estates, roadsters etc), they will really become more widespread since they are way cheaper to maintain without an engine and I suspect it will become like early digital cameras vs film compared to digital cameras today. They will improve and the case for owning an ICE will decline besides for enthusiasts.

The problem, at the moment is that EV news is dominated by the oil industry & it's news outlets / lobby groups telling you everything is bad about EVs often carefully choreographed as an opinion piece, experts or Scientists say or that Hydrogen is somehow a better option. There's a large group of oil & gas industry scientists / experts on the payroll who just make stuff up or twist the truth to the extreme that are easy to debunk.

EVs are already well ahead of ICE cars, charge speed is a red herring and range is not an issue.

Access to charging IS an issue.. Those without a drive, renters and areas of poor / inadequate charging. Spain is awful to navigate.
Costs are another issue. At home most of us pay 5-10p / unit whereas out on the road 20% VAT is levied and prices can hit £1 a unit.

If you have a drive & home charger with most trips based on home or free work / destination charging then an EV is a no brainer especially in rural areas.
If you live in a flat & rely on public charging the time probably isn't right for you in most areas.

 

[Bald Rick]

Eventually EVs sales will increase

They already have increased - and rather quickly. There’s well over half a million pure EVs on the road, already - that’s 5 times what there was two years ago.

 

[reddragon]

They already have increased - and rather quickly. There’s well over half a million pure EVs on the road, already - that’s 5 times what there was two years ago.

1 in 60 cars on the road are now EVs and 1 in 6 sold are EVs

 

[MotCO]

1 in 60 cars on the road are now EVs and 1 in 6 sold are EVs

But that still says that 5 in 6 (83%) cars are not EV which is still a hell of a lot. There will come a time when those who use them as business cars (and can take tax benefits), can afford the purchase price (or PCP price etc), have off-street parking for charging etc will be saturated with EVs, so who will buy the others to increase the take-up rate?

 

[jon0844]

It's only going to keep moving until it's 1 in 6 that is ICE.

I'm still better off with a petrol car, just, because of low mileage and the industry having started out focusing on big, heavy, SUV vehicles - with the smaller cars made by manufacturers who thought they could charge a hefty premium.

That's changing with the likes of MG and other new players coming next year. And suddenly those who do 10-30 miles a day can afford to get an EV.

Once supply chain issues can be helped a bit, second hand prices will drop too. This will hopefully mean the smaller battery MG4 of today will be available for £15-19k in a couple of years. Still with 4-5 years warranty left and a whole lot of car for the money, with a battery still having years of life left.

I doubt the maths will favour any petrol cars by then, as the cost at the pump will have risen a lot (especially if fuel duty is increased) and car makers won't have the economy of scale to keep them as cheap as some are today.

 

[reddragon]

But that still says that 5 in 6 (83%) cars are not EV which is still a hell of a lot. There will come a time when those who use them as business cars (and can take tax benefits), can afford the purchase price (or PCP price etc), have off-street parking for charging etc will be saturated with EVs, so who will buy the others to increase the take-up rate?

When I bought my 1st EV, sales were <0.1% and sighting another EV was a big event! Now it's every day and 50% EV sales are expected by 2025.

 

[jon0844]

When I bought my 1st EV, sales were <0.1% and sighting another EV was a big event! Now it's every day and 50% EV sales are expected by 2025.

I forget how many charging bays there are at Hatfield Station (think it's 20 or 25) but when they first opened them, everyone moaned about how pointless they were.

Now, you can go in and see 10 or more cars using them. In a few years people will moan they didn't install enough.

 

[bspahh]

Once supply chain issues can be helped a bit, second hand prices will drop too. This will hopefully mean the smaller battery MG4 of today will be available for £15-19k in a couple of years. Still with 4-5 years warranty left and a whole lot of car for the money, with a battery still having years of life left.

FleetNews predicts that the residual value of an MG4 EV Hatch 5Dr 0.0Electric 51kWh 170 SE Auto 22MY will be £17688 in 3 years with 30,000 miles, £18,118 in 2 years with 40,000 miles or £14,911 in 2 years with 80,000 miles.

The retail price from a dealer would be higher. I think those prices might be from an auction.

 

[Bald Rick]

But that still says that 5 in 6 (83%) cars are not EV which is still a hell of a lot. There will come a time when those who use them as business cars (and can take tax benefits), can afford the purchase price (or PCP price etc), have off-street parking for charging etc will be saturated with EVs, so who will buy the others to increase the take-up rate?

I know you don’t get it, but there’s plenty of people out there who don’t fit that ‘demographic’ and/or don’t have off street parking who have EVs. As I’ve said previously I know about 15 people with EVs now, and some of them don’t have off street parking. It just means managing things in a different way.

 

[jon0844]

FleetNews predicts that the residual value of an MG4 MG4 EV Hatch 5Dr 0.0Electric 51kWh 170 SE Auto 22MY will be £17688 in 3 years with 30,000 miles, £18,118 in 2 years with 40,000 miles or £14,911 in 2 years with 80,000 miles.

The retail price from a dealer would be higher. I think those prices might be from an auction.

£14911 would be a steal, and for someone doing low mileage the fact it's done 80k is immaterial. It will likely take ten years to add another 50k!

The best bit about buying a second hand EV is there aren't going to be all the usual fears about something big about to go wrong that has been unseen or covered up by the seller.

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I know you don’t get it, but there’s plenty of people out there who don’t fit that ‘demographic’ and/or don’t have off street parking who have EVs. As I’ve said previously I know about 15 people with EVs now, and some of them don’t have off street parking. It just means managing things in a different way.

Well quite. I mean, I don't have a fuel pump at home either.

 

[The Ham]

But that still says that 5 in 6 (83%) cars are not EV which is still a hell of a lot. There will come a time when those who use them as business cars (and can take tax benefits), can afford the purchase price (or PCP price etc), have off-street parking for charging etc will be saturated with EVs, so who will buy the others to increase the take-up rate?

1 in 6 is pure EV or plug in hybrid:

Vehicle licensing statistics: 2021

www.gov.uk

Pure petrol/diesel is about 66%

The rest are other hybrids.

However the growth from the year before were about +70% for EV/PHEV whilst petrol car sales fell by 10% and diesel fell by about 1/3.

The year to date data shows a continuing trend with BEV/PHEV now showing as 1 in 5 cars, with +38% on last year comparisons for BEV and -41% for diesel and -13% for petrol.

Whilst that's still a long way to go before EV's get to the point where they are starting to outnumber the sales of petrol cars (583,000 vs 195,000), they are already selling in larger numbers than diesel cars (73,000 vs 195,000) even PHEV have larger sales than diesel (73,000 vs 83,000).

 

[reddragon]

BEV sales are now at 1 in 6, or 1 in 4 in October now second only to Petrol



But more noticeable is something else. First diesel and now Petrol sales are plummeting




This is the traditional transition history of all technologies.

Early adoption of EVs, tipping point 1 stops people buying old ICE tech & sales of new EV tech picks up gradually (current position started in 2019)

Tipping point 2 EVs become best option and old tech collapses area by area, starting with development, then manufacturing & then sales with diesel likely to be gone quite soon.

Tipping point 3 - the entire industry fails, petrol stations go, support dies out and only heritage remains.