UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Noddy]

The real problem is the extra cost of an EV over an ICE. To take a random example - a Vauxhall Mokka ICE is £25,815 and a Mokka EV (same spec) is £34,910, a 35% increase. Many struggle to buy a new car at £25,000; at £35,000 it is impossible. So how will sales increase from 15% to 50% (i.e. over three times as much)?

I don’t know much about the Mokka and so can’t comment on exact specs, but despite the trims being the same have you also considered that to compare strictly like for like you also need to upgrade to an automatic. The electric motor will (I imagine) be much more powerful than the standard ICE in the Mokka and you will probably need to look at this as well? So comparisons are difficult. While you are clearly paying more outright if you just go for the same trim level, and I don’t dispute this, if you choose the EV you are getting a more powerful, easier to drive car.

However, more importantly most privately purchased cars are paid for on some sort of finance or lease-ie are paid for as part of a monthly budget. And because the running cost of EVs are lower this needs to be factored in and brings them much closer together.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don’t know much about the Mokka and so can’t comment on exact specs, but despite the trims being the same have you also considered that to compare strictly like for like you also need to upgrade to an automatic. The electric motor will (I imagine) be much more powerful than the standard ICE in the Mokka and you will probably need to look at this as well?

No, you don't. Often people will buy the cheapest model. They might not want an auto or more powerful.

Thus, if I want to buy a small engined manual petrol (typically the cheapest), the price of an EV has to be comparable.

 

[trebor79]

No, you don't. Often people will buy the cheapest model. They might not want an auto or more powerful.

Thus, if I want to buy a small engined manual petrol (typically the cheapest), the price of an EV has to be comparable.

I would say price of the EV + running costs needs to be comparable to price of the ICE + running costs.

 

[Noddy]

No, you don't. Often people will buy the cheapest model. They might not want an auto or more powerful.

Thus, if I want to buy a small engined manual petrol (typically the cheapest), the price of an EV has to be comparable.

Oh, I don’t deny that for one moment. My personal experience of buying fords on finance (until a couple of years ago) has been to has been to pay a little extra each month to get the 1.0 litre 3 cylinder ecoboost engines rather the cheaper 1.25l which has more expensive running costs. My personal experience may not be for everyone but I don’t think it’s uncommon.

And the EV will still have reduced monthly running costs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would say price of the EV + running costs needs to be comparable to price of the ICE + running costs.

Problem is "running costs" are likely to equalise over the next 5-10 years as taxation is equalised in various forms. Tax free EV use is a "pump primer", not a long-term strategy, as is rapidly being confirmed by the Government (e.g. the applicability of vehicle excise duty).

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And the EV will still have reduced monthly running costs.

If I buy a brand-new EV now, it's quite possible it won't by the end of the 5-6 years I'd probably keep it. VED is already set to be applied, and some form of road pricing etc will come.

 

[MotCO]

I would say price of the EV + running costs needs to be comparable to price of the ICE + running costs.

Most people would only look at the initial purchase price - only an accountant would look at lifetime costs (and I'm an accountant!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Most people would only look at the initial purchase price - only an accountant would look at lifetime costs (and I'm an accountant!)

It's also not easy to work out for everyone. All my car mileage is discretionary, I don't commute. And I've done more long distance driving the last 2 years, because of COVID, not wanting to wear a mask and then Avanti West Coast being useless. Once Avanti is back to normal my mileage will drop considerably.

 

[Noddy]

If I buy a brand-new EV now, it's quite possible it won't by the end of the 5-6 years I'd probably keep it. VED is already set to be applied, and some form of road pricing etc will come.

Has it been confirm the VED will be applied retrospectively though? The changes made in April 2017 weren’t. Quite possibly it will cost more over the next 5-6 years but you’ll be doing the environment a favour too!

Who knows what will happen but personally I think it is likely we will have a Labour government in April 2025, and they may look to do something different with VED. Fuel duty may* go up (Hammond seems to have denied it this morning?) and any form of road pricing is just as likely to apply to an ICE. So all this is a great unknown. As is the price of fuel vs electricity. But I can’t see the price of fuel dropping significantly in the next 5-6 years unless there’s another pandemic or the like, but I can see electricity returning to broadly pre-Ukraine invasion levels in the same time frame.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Nov 2022 ==

Most people would only look at the initial purchase price - only an accountant would look at lifetime costs (and I'm an accountant!)

But most people (90% or so) do it via a monthly cost because they are on finance or lease! I don’t even know what my car costs outright!

 

[Bletchleyite]

But most people (90% or so) do it via a monthly cost because they are on finance or lease! I don’t even know what my car costs outright!

I think I'd still separate the monthly membership fee to car ownership (loan/finance/lease payment plus any servicing which is annual except on very high mileages) and the usage charge (fuel or electricity plus parking, tolls etc), with the occasional randomish tyre/brake job which is hard to fit into either so just goes into the "random unplanned expense" pot like having to replace a household appliance.

I don't after all work out a per-mile from my train fares and Network Railcard annual cost.

 

[Bald Rick]

The real problem is the extra cost of an EV over an ICE. To take a random example - a Vauxhall Mokka ICE is £25,815 and a Mokka EV (same spec) is £34,910, a 35% increase. Many struggle to buy a new car at £25,000; at £35,000 it is impossible. So how will sales increase from 15% to 50% (i.e. over three times as much)?

Most people buy through lease or PCP, which take into account anticipated resale values and therefore the monthly values, although still more expensive than equivalent ICE, are much more aligned.

The real problem about adopting EVs now is availability, both of the vehicles and charging infrastructure (the latter of which is improving rapidly).

 

[Noddy]

I think I'd still separate the monthly membership fee to car ownership (loan/finance/lease payment plus any servicing which is annual except on very high mileages) and the usage charge (fuel or electricity plus parking, tolls etc), with the occasional randomish tyre/brake job which is hard to fit into either so just goes into the "random unplanned expense" pot like having to replace a household appliance.

And that’s totally understandable for you - as you’ve said you only use your car on a ‘discretionary’ basis. However, a lot of folk (majority?) have some sort of fixed commute and/or school run and as such are likely to broadly do the same average mileage every year. Personally I’ve always factored in mileage and fuel efficiency when buying new cars. I can’t speak for anyone else but that’s what the AA, MoneySavingExpert etc all recommend…

 

[Ediswan]

Has it been confirm the VED will be applied retrospectively though? The changes made in April 2017 weren’t.

According to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63660321

Under the plans laid out today, electric cars registered from April 2025 will pay the lowest rate of £10 in the first year, then move to the standard rate which is currently £165.
The standard rate will also apply to electric vehicles first registered after April 2017.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And that’s totally understandable for you - as you’ve said you only use your car on a ‘discretionary’ basis. However, a lot of folk (majority?) have some sort of fixed commute and/or school run and as such are likely to broadly do the same average mileage every year. Personally I’ve always factored in mileage and fuel efficiency when buying new cars. I can’t speak for anyone else but that’s what the AA, MoneySavingExpert etc all recommend…

I do factor it in in a sense, but on a much looser basis, e.g. this time I chose diesel over petrol (though other arguments are pushing it the other way again).

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According to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63660321

So is this maybe also a nudge to early adoption?

 

[MotCO]

The real problem about adopting EVs now is availability, both of the vehicles and charging infrastructure (the latter of which is improving rapidly).

There have been various comments about not being able to find charging points which are working and unoccupied, which is particularly important when making long journeys. Can any of the EV car drivers on here say how often they have not been able to find somewhere to recharge when away from home?

 

[Noddy]

According to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63660321

Oh interesting I hadn’t seen that. What is it about April 2017 that they don’t want to change VED for cars registered before this date, but they are appearing to do so for those registered afterwards?

 

[JamesT]

Oh interesting I hadn’t seen that. What is it about April 2017 that they don’t want to change VED for cars registered before this date, but they are appearing to do so for those registered afterwards?

April 2017 is when the current system of VED came in for all types of cars, I suspect they don't want to have to retrospectively update superseded rules to add charging electric cars.

 

[Bald Rick]

There have been various comments about not being able to find charging points which are working and unoccupied, which is particularly important when making long journeys. Can any of the EV car drivers on here say how often they have not been able to find somewhere to recharge when away from home?

see post #663 from @trebor79

 

[william.martin]

Source please?

I can not do a hyperlink because I learnt it from a person not online

 

[quantinghome]

What we're seeing with EVs is pretty standard in terms of the roll out of a new technology. I'm sure people said the same sort of thing when CDs came out - "too expensive, hardly any music available", or earlier when TVs came out "such a small screen, and the cinema only costs 2 and 6". Then suddenly it became the standard. The same will happen with EVs when economies of scale kick in. Currently we're at the "growing pains" stage where the industry is having to expand from early adopters into the mainstream.

 

[MotCO]

What we're seeing with EVs is pretty standard in terms of the roll out of a new technology. I'm sure people said the same sort of thing when CDs came out - "too expensive, hardly any music available", or earlier when TVs came out "such a small screen, and the cinema only costs 2 and 6". Then suddenly it became the standard. The same will happen with EVs when economies of scale kick in. Currently we're at the "growing pains" stage where the industry is having to expand from early adopters into the mainstream.

But we're still not seeing any drastic price reductions you might have expected. Presumably the batteries are the expensive commodity, and I cannot see how the price of the rare elements will tumble anytime soon.

 

[AM9]

My point is you need to be on a plan that will adjust as per your tariff. The conspiracy theorists are suggesting once you get a smart meter, you'll be charged anything at any time or be cut off at will.

Well if the theorists are that stupid then they'll be telling everybody (including mugs like themselves) that even without an EV, the power could be switched off by the supplier on a whim.

 

[HSTEd]

Well if the theorists are that stupic then they'll be telling everybody (including mugs like themselves) that even without an EV, the power could be switched off by the supplier on a whim.

The only ways to shut someones power off without a smart meter is to take out the entire street, or attain a court order and then get to the main fuse (which can quite easily be behind a locked door).

With a smart meter they literally have to press a button.
We already have reports of operators moving customers to pre-payment meters remotely without going through the traditional consultation process. Which is effectively disconnection by stealth.

Yes, suppliers can technically cut people off today, but it costs thousands of pounds and takes months.
With smart meters it costs nothing and takes five seconds.

 

[Bald Rick]

What we're seeing with EVs is pretty standard in terms of the roll out of a new technology. I'm sure people said the same sort of thing when CDs came out - "too expensive, hardly any music available", or earlier when TVs came out "such a small screen, and the cinema only costs 2 and 6". Then suddenly it became the standard. The same will happen with EVs when economies of scale kick in. Currently we're at the "growing pains" stage where the industry is having to expand from early adopters into the mainstream.

Or, more pertinently… Cars “too expensive, very difficult to maintain and drive, I’ll stick with the horse”

But we're still not seeing any drastic price reductions you might have expected.

Well we kind of have, in that 8 years ago if you wanted an EV that wasn’t a Zoe, Leaf or i3 (which back then had rubbish ranges) you were buying a Tesla S. Now there are many more EV models available, across a wide price range, almost all of which have decent mile ranges.

 

[reddragon]

EV prices have stayed static because the range has progressively increased from <100 miles to >250 miles whilst charging speed has increased from up to 50kW/h to well over 100 kW/h

Now only demand far exceeding supply keeps the price up.

With growing Chinese imports expect a huge step down in price. The MG4 is £10k below the ID3, next year many more entrants arrive in the UK

 

[trebor79]

There have been various comments about not being able to find charging points which are working and unoccupied, which is particularly important when making long journeys. Can any of the EV car drivers on here say how often they have not been able to find somewhere to recharge when away from home?

So far I've had to wait twice. Once at Rugby services because half the chargers were bust.10 minute wait.
Second time today, just under 15 minutes wait at a Shell because all the chargers were occupied by idiots charging to 100%, and annoyingly the app I use told me there were 2 vacant or I'd have gone elsewhere, so I guess something in the cloud fell over. I could have made it to Baldock services but elected to wait

In general no issue at all. I use ABRP which is a bit like Google maps but works out where you will need to stop to charge (you can tell it only to take you to hubs with more than x chargers etc) and displays how many are vacant/in use/broken whilst you're driving.

Today I set off from Cardiff with 75% battery, saw a friend in Bristol and arrived at the charge station near Watford with about 15% charge. Charged for 28 minutes to 55% and that gave me enough to get home easily. I could have cut 10 minutes off that at stoped the charge at 45% and still got home. Ended up setting the cruise control to a naughty number to get home a bit quicker, charging costs at home are so cheap it's not worth conserving battery do might as well burn it off and get back quicker.

 

[skyhigh]

Second time today, just under 15 minutes wait at a Shell because all the chargers were occupied by idiots charging to 100%

I have to say that annoys me too. Given CCS allows the charger to know % charge, I'm surprised operators haven't tried a scheme where charging over say 90% leads to an increased unit rate for that portion of the charge. 50p up to 90% and £1 for every kWh after that would change behaviour pretty rapidly if advertised well.

 

[trebor79]

I have to say that annoys me too. Given CCS allows the charger to know % charge, I'm surprised operators haven't tried a scheme where charging over say 90% leads to an increased unit rate for that portion of the charge. 50p up to 90% and £1 for every kWh after that would change behaviour pretty rapidly if advertised well.

I had the exact same thought.
There was a Zoe at 85% when I arrived. Still there charging at 97% when I left, charging at some pitifully slow rate. Airhead sat inside it watching videos on her phone, completely oblivious to the queue or the fact she was wasting her life sat at a petrol station. Car had been on charge for over an hour, so in theory she'll get hit with the £100 fine Shell threaten for overstating, but I couldn't see they had any ANPR cameras to actually do it.
I did notice it was an OnTo car which I believe comes with charging bundled, so she wouldn't be paying any charge costs directly anyway.
The other thing they could do is set the chargers to just chuck you off when the car gets to 80%. Really beyond that it's quicker to drive on and charge again if necessary.

 

[py_megapixel]

The pollution created by mining for materials that make electric car batteries is equal to the amount of pollution a petrol/ electric car makes, so why not stick to the old dinosaurs and get to here those V8'S continue to roar.

Because not everyone likes gratuitous noise pollution?

 

[cactustwirly]

Your opinion is wrong.

How much pollution is created by mining for materials that make petrol and diesel, and then refining them, and then transporting them? And the materials that make engines, cooling systems, transmissions, exhaust systems, catalytic converters, etc?

The payback time of an EV is about 8 years or 80000 miles.
Which is also the lifetime of the batteries....

There is also the CO2 produced by burning gas and coal to produce the electricity to fuel your EV (some renewables are used, but 50% is still fossil fuels)
.
To say they eco friendly is a complete and utter fallacy.

This is a very interesting read, comparing the total emissions of the electric C40 and petrol XC40

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.volvocars.com/images/v/-/media/Market-Assets/INTL/Applications/DotCom/PDF/C40/Volvo-C40-Recharge-LCA-report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwienffr9Ln7AhXoRUEAHWtjBH8QFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw31SHtTYO6Vws4KqgiZjvlL

 

[jon0844]

Batteries lasting 80,000 miles? People are estimating them to be good for up to a million miles, and then getting more life after that.

Warranties are often for 100,000 miles and while the capacity will drop, modern batteries won't decrease too much. Maybe 70-80% after a decent number of years (bear in mind they're not on a timer - their life is based on usage and charge cycles).

As for electricity generation, we all need to be generating as near to 100% green energy as possible, which isn't just an EV issue, and EVs remove pollution at street level to help the environment.