UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Bletchleyite]

If you want the best value car you need to know what it costs you per month or mile.

Otherwise you ger fooled into 'cheap' ICE cars that cost you more than an EV.

Simple maths, people need to change their mindset.

That makes sense if doing a fixed mileage e.g. for a commute. All my car mileage is discretionary.

 

[reddragon]

That makes sense if doing a fixed mileage e.g. for a commute. All my car mileage is discretionary.

But from your MOT records you will know your typical annual mileage and you can choose your future annual mileage hence a cost per mile / month to own a car.

 

[Harpers Tate]

The true raw cost of owning any vehicle is not its purchase price. It is
- the purchase price
- minus the trade-in value when you change it
- plus the cost of finance (interest paid, or interest/income lost if you use your own funds).

If an EV is worth £2500 less than its purchase price after two years, then it has cost £1250 pa to own (excl. finance costs), regardless of what it cost to buy in the first place.
If (hypothetically) an ICE that cost half as much upfront lost £3500 over the same period then it was more expensive.

The cost of using any vehicle includes
- fuel (likely to be lower in an EV)
- tax (presently lower in most EVs, although for how long.....?)
- maintenance - service (likely to be lower in an EV)
- maintenance - replacement of consumable parts such as tyres and brakes (hard to judge tyres, but brake wear is hugely reduced in EVs; there is no exhaust system/catalyst/etc., so likely to be lower overall).

 

[johncrossley]

The true raw cost of owning any vehicle is not its purchase price.

Human nature suggests that it is the 'perceived' cost that counts rather than actual facts or logic. Ironically, that is one of the ways motorists have justified using their petrol car instead of public transport for the last few decades. The per mile cost once the 'sunk' costs have been spent. In other words "I've already paid £x000 pounds for my car so I might as well use it". But when it comes to electric cars (versus petrol) the objection now comes from the fixed cost.

 

[AM9]

There is of course an elephant in the room hter, - the oast of petrol/diesel. Forget projections of what the price per barrel of oil will be in 5-10 years (with an eye on the current Ukriane war), - it's how much a litre of fuel costs at the pump in a diminishing market, when the cost of running the supply network become larger than the cost at the refinery.

 

[reddragon]

Based on my current usage & costs my 1st 2 cars would have been the most expensive to own & cost me 69p/mile as they were heavy users of fuel. But due to me selling them at more than I bought them for and very low annual mileages their monthly cost was low. Old petrol cars were very thirsty!

My 1st diesel was an expensive car and despite fuel being less than half the cost per mile, still would now cost me 62p/mile due to high asset & maintenance costs. It worked then because I drove a lot in Europe where diesel was half the cost of Petrol. Today, owning a similar car would come at a prohibitive cost.

I then moved onto cheap diesel estate cars and they cost me 32p/mile to own as they were very cheap to maintain & reliable, so I kept them for years, my wife still has one at 20 years old going well. I couldn't get one for that price anymore & maintenance costs are higher on newer models probably adding 10p/mile.

My last diesel estate ended up costing me 49p/mile. Later diesels did not give the promised MPG & are a maintenance black hole!

My EVs have cost me around 40p/mile to own on PCPs but if I kept them longer that would drop to under 35p/mile.

I know my costs & nowt is better value than my EV for my set up & usage.

 

[trebor79]

Cost per mile makes no sense as that isn't how people see cars. It's more like "membership fee plus marginal per mile". 20K miles is quite high, I probably do about half that, so I guess that swings more in favour of petrol.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see car leases priced per mile (probably with an exponential reduction for higher mileages) being offered in the market at some point, including charging.

So about 8 months ago I ordered a Kia Niro EV to replace an ageing Renault Scenic. I then had to persuade the wife...
Based on the 10,000 miles a year the Renault was doing, I showed that over 6 years, the new car will break even compared to the Renault:
Avoidance of £2k repairs required for next MOT
Avoidance of £1k cam belt change due January
"Fuel cost" of 1.8p per mile (when charged at home, but we only do a few long journeys per year so public charging costs will be negligible) versus 30p per mile (and even more now).
Avoidance of whatever else was going to go wrong with it next for a 7 year warranty.

I mean, just the fuel savings alone almost pay for the monthly PCP payments! In reality we're saving even more because I use my Peugeot 208 less in preference for the EV.

In the real world it has 200 mile range at motorway speeds. In practical terms this means stopping around every 2.5 to 3 hours on a long journey. It's not the fastest charging car in the world, but 30 minutes will put in enough for another 2 hours of driving at motorway speeds. Norfolk to Cardiff with one stop is easy. Coming back we set off with 40% charge, stopped at Chippenham for 20 minutes and then for another 20 minutes somewhere on the M25. (And I never even got charged for the second charge because it just never came through on the account linked to the RFID card I used). It was at Shell, and given they make about £45k profit every minute of the day at the moment I don't think they'll miss it.

My wife was concerned about range, charging etc but is fully converted.

Much more relaxing drive, quiet and so effortless. I can do 5 or 6 hour journeys and not feel fatigued when I arrive. Overtaking on country roads is a doddle.

I will never, ever buy another ICE car again. BEV is just better in every way and if it's got a WLTP range of 250+ miles that's enough for all practical purposes.
Public charging costs will come down again (in fact one network has already reduced their prices from the peak) and over the next 5 years electricity is going to get super cheap so I'm not sure why anyone would want to continue paying £2/litre for fuel.

Until about 12 month ago I was an EV sceptic, thought they were useless and impractical etc. Then I drove one...

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm by no means a cynic. I just don't like PCP purchase (I don't treat cars well, so don't want to be being fined for a bashed-up interior, so I prefer to own using an unsecured personal loan) and I don't fit a lot of cars (the Niro looks good but I don't fit!)

I just about fit the MG5 but I think it's a bit small.

There's be some logic in saying I should actually buy an electric van, but 5 seats occasionally come in handy, and while taking car no claims bonus to van is easy, "laundering" it back again is really hard, very few insurers will do it!

 

[bspahh]

Cost per mile makes no sense as that isn't how people see cars. It's more like "membership fee plus marginal per mile". 20K miles is quite high, I probably do about half that, so I guess that swings more in favour of petrol.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see car leases priced per mile (probably with an exponential reduction for higher mileages) being offered in the market at some point, including charging.

I picked Fleet News's default setting. They have similar numbers for different periods and mileages. You can click on the individual hits and get a breakdown of their working. I don't think the pricing will be updated for the daily fluctuations of the deals on offer. However, I think they are useful as a general guideline. The Fleet car sector buys a lot of cars, and their predictions of future resale values are generally pretty good, for the relative values between different cars, even if they get it wrong if there are global events that affect the resale values of cars.

There's be some logic in saying I should actually buy an electric van, but 5 seats occasionally come in handy, and while taking car no claims bonus to van is easy, "laundering" it back again is really hard, very few insurers will do it!

The owners of A to B magazine https://www.atob.org.uk/ bought a Peugeot electric "van" with side windows. They got some floor rails which mean that they can fit seats in the back as and when they need them.

It didn't all go well. It was a couple of years ago, and the model they bought only has a real world range of about 80 miles on a charge. They wrote about a long point to point journey where they had to recharge a few times. They didn't have a phone with mobile internet, which meant that they didn't just have to struggle with the different apps for various chargers, but also how to connect up with free Wifi. More recent vans should have a longer range, and a phone contract would have saved them a load of hassle.

 

[johncrossley]

I'm not interested in PCP or loans. I would rather pay in cash unless it there is a special deal which means paying in cash is dearer. But I still don't want to pay silly money for a car even if I can afford it. That means electric cars are still too expensive at the moment.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It didn't all go well. It was a couple of years ago, and the model they bought only has a real world range of about 80 miles on a charge. They wrote about a long point to point journey where they had to recharge a few times. They didn't have a phone with mobile internet, which meant that they didn't just have to struggle with the different apps for various chargers, but also how to connect up with free Wifi. More recent vans should have a longer range, and a phone contract would have saved them a load of hassle.

The Rifter is the car version of that. It indeed has far too short a range otherwise I might be interested.

Here's one that surprised me - that Ford have brought out a new Tourneo Connect (collab with VW) and it isn't an EV.

 

[jon0844]

EVs are going to hopefully keep getting cheaper. The MG4 is a stunning car (bar no rear wiper and a few cost cuts on the interior that I wish the Trophy trim had addressed) and other Chinese entrants this year and next will want to compete with.

Then the incumbents will have to compete, and not just with further cost cutting but also introducing smaller cars for those who don't do more than 10k, even 5k, a year.

I would hope the next MG3 will have an EV option or be EV only and nearer to £20k in basic trim. That could be a massive gamechanger, especially appealing to those who have more than one vehicle.

MG is getting all the deserved attention right now, because it has made EVs more accessible. Sure there are nicer cars out there also, and it's choice that is so important.

To start with the industry just gave everyone a SUV. Now it's MG that offers an estate and affordable hatchback, but give it six months and we'll be seeing more great cars.

I am hoping that BYD will get pricing right when it launches here. That's another company to watch. I had hoped the Ora Cat might be affordable, but it seems not yet.

 

[JohnMcL7]

Deleted

 

[trebor79]

I just don't like PCP purchase (I don't treat cars well, so don't want to be being fined for a bashed-up interior, so I prefer to own using an unsecured personal loan) and I don't fit a lot of cars (the Niro looks good but I don't fit!)

I'm not interested in PCP or loans. I would rather pay in cash unless it there is a special deal which means paying in cash is dearer. But I still don't want to pay silly money for a car even if I can afford it. That means electric cars are still too expensive at the moment.

I've never used a PCP before. Prefer cash or bank loan.
The only reason I did it this time is they were offering a stupidly low interest rate at launch of the new model. I chose the lowest annual mileage I could which makes the monthlies relatively tiny. I have no intention of handing back after three years, the balloon payment is rather hefty but a couple of years of rampant inflation is going to take care of a lot of that for me.

 

[reddragon]

I've never used a PCP before. Prefer cash or bank loan.
The only reason I did it this time is they were offering a stupidly low interest rate at launch of the new model. I chose the lowest annual mileage I could which makes the monthlies relatively tiny. I have no intention of handing back after three years, the balloon payment is rather hefty but a couple of years of rampant inflation is going to take care of a lot of that for me.

Yes my PCP is 0%, no brainer! Also went for lower than actual mileage.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes my PCP is 0%, no brainer! Also went for lower than actual mileage.

Certainly it makes sense to go with finance if it is at 0% interest. Not always offered, though.

 

[Bald Rick]

I wonder what effect this will have on the value of used ICEs, particularly petrols? Will scarcity make them expensive, or will everyone be sold on EVs? I'm half wondering the latter, i.e. that (as there's not an EV to perfectly suit me yet) a brand-new petrol-engined car (not diesel) might actually be a good investment in the next 6 months to a year, which it might be feasible to trade in for a used EV in 3-5 years' time with very little uplift?

good question. I guess ot all depends on what (if any) additional punitive taxes are levied on petrol and diesel, or their cars, in about 5-7 years time.

My theory, for what it’s worth, is that the ICE cars that will be sought after are those with a long range for people who routinely and frequently do 400m+ journeys in a hurry where they don’t like to stop for long. There’s not many of those people though.

As the vast majority of people rarely do a car trip over 200-250 miles, EVs will be fine for them, once they have had the @trebor79 epiphany.

 

[Ken H]

good question. I guess ot all depends on what (if any) additional punitive taxes are levied on petrol and diesel, or their cars, in about 5-7 years time.

My theory, for what it’s worth, is that the ICE cars that will be sought after are those with a long range for people who routinely and frequently do 400m+ journeys in a hurry where they don’t like to stop for long. There’s not many of those people though.

As the vast majority of people rarely do a car trip over 200-250 miles, EVs will be fine for them, once they have had the @trebor79 epiphany.

And people who cant charge at home.

 

[JohnMcL7]

As the vast majority of people rarely do a car trip over 200-250 miles, EVs will be fine for them, once they have had the @trebor79 epiphany.

Unless my car suddenly has multiple catastrophic failures annually as well as stops being quiet, comfortable and soaks up long miles with ease then no, I'm not going to be having such an epiphany because I don't drive a garbage petrol/diesel. My current car is 12 years old and the biggest MOT it's had was for £550 which includes the service and MOT costs and was higher for brake work that an electric car would need as well. It's strange as it's always painted that people who aren't suited to electric cars are the minority but then you get posts claiming utterly absurd maintenance costs as justification for an electric car and those most certainly aren't normal.

With no decent electric estates even on the horizon never mind the money side I think increasingly it looks like I'll be changing to an electric vehicle when they make it punitive to keep driving a petrol vehicle.

 

[Ken H]

Unless my car suddenly has multiple catastrophic failures annually as well as stops being quiet, comfortable and soaks up long miles with ease then no, I'm not going to be having such an epiphany. My current car is 12 years old and the biggest MOT it's had was for £550 which includes the service and MOT costs and was higher for brake work that an electric car would need as well. It's strange as it's always painted that people who aren't suited to electric cars are the minority but then you get posts claiming utterly absurd maintenance costs as justification for an electric car and those most certainly aren't normal.

With no decent electric estates even on the horizon never mind the money side I think increasingly it looks like I'll be changing to an electric vehicle when they make it punitive to keep driving a petrol vehicle.

You have to keep getting your old car serviced regularly by a reliable garage. Thats the way to keep em going. And drive them carefully so you dont strain stuff.

 

[Eyersey468]

Unless my car suddenly has multiple catastrophic failures annually as well as stops being quiet, comfortable and soaks up long miles with ease then no, I'm not going to be having such an epiphany because I don't drive a garbage petrol/diesel. My current car is 12 years old and the biggest MOT it's had was for £550 which includes the service and MOT costs and was higher for brake work that an electric car would need as well. It's strange as it's always painted that people who aren't suited to electric cars are the minority but then you get posts claiming utterly absurd maintenance costs as justification for an electric car and those most certainly aren't normal.

With no decent electric estates even on the horizon never mind the money side I think increasingly it looks like I'll be changing to an electric vehicle when they make it punitive to keep driving a petrol vehicle.

I agree, my current car is 7 years old and I intend to run it for at least another 5-6 years.

 

[Bald Rick]

Unless my car suddenly has multiple catastrophic failures annually as well as stops being quiet, comfortable and soaks up long miles with ease then no, I'm not going to be having such an epiphany because I don't drive a garbage petrol/diesel. My current car is 12 years old and the biggest MOT it's had was for £550 which includes the service and MOT costs and was higher for brake work that an electric car would need as well. It's strange as it's always painted that people who aren't suited to electric cars are the minority but then you get posts claiming utterly absurd maintenance costs as justification for an electric car and those most certainly aren't normal.

I wasn’t suggesting that people are going to give up their current ICE cars right now en masse and switch to EVs. As an owner of a very comfortable, smooth running, 15 year old fully depreciated petrol estate, that has never had a maintenance bill of more than £300, I‘m in no hurry to change it. However when the time does come to look for a newer car, I’ll be looking at an EV, and not another petrol estate. (Unless someone wants to sell me an RS6 for a song )

 

[JohnMcL7]

I wasn’t suggesting that people are going to give up their current ICE cars right now en masse and switch to EVs. As an owner of a very comfortable, smooth running, 15 year old fully depreciated petrol estate, that has never had a maintenance bill of more than £300, I‘m in no hurry to change it. However when the time does come to look for a newer car, I’ll be looking at an EV, and not another petrol estate. (Unless someone wants to sell me an RS6 for a song )

Part of me does hope petrol cars will crash so much that I could pick up an e63 to run for a bit, that incredibly savage V8 noise is not something an electric car will be able to offer.

I have considered viable electric replacements for my estate but I can't find any as there's only the MG5 and the Porsche Taycan Sport Turismo and neither are very good estates, even if one was announced today it's going to be a while for it to reach the 3-4 year old mark where I usually pick up cars. Also the Japanese have been very slow going with full electric cars which is what I'd likely go with again, this Mazda has lived up to its reputation and been incredibly reliable. Before anyone brings up being green I cover just about all my miles on a bike these days and the car is only for very long trips which would be great to do more on trains but even getting the bike onto a train is a challenge.

 

[E27007]

i do not think the figures by the Fleet News Calculator are relevant for the private motorist, not many private motorists drive 80,000 miles in 4 years, private motorists do not have access to VAT write downs or expenses against business accounts for the costs of te vehicle.

 

[jon0844]

I have considered viable electric replacements for my estate but I can't find any as there's only the MG5 and the Porsche Taycan Sport Turismo and neither are very good estates, even if one was announced today it's going to be a while for it to reach the 3-4 year old mark where I usually pick up cars. Also the Japanese have been very slow going with full electric cars which is what I'd likely go with again, this Mazda has lived up to its reputation and been incredibly reliable. Before anyone brings up being green I cover just about all my miles on a bike these days and the car is only for very long trips which would be great to do more on trains but even getting the bike onto a train is a challenge.

Volvo has stated it intends to do an estate EV, and in China there are many small cars that aren't available here yet. Not sure if they're big on estate cars, but I'm sure they'll see a market if they can see MG sucking up all the sales (I doubt the Porsche is going to be mass market).

We've all been conditioned to believe an EV has to have a 300+ mile range, even if a lot of people will charge their car once a week (like an ICE vehicle) and possibly rarely 'fill up' anywhere but home - just as I think in the last two years, I've filled up petrol only three or four times away from my local fuel stations.

Now the market is maturing, we'll hopefully see a larger portfolio of vehicles.. although after I posted earlier, MG has apparently stated it will still be using petrol for its MG3 (but it wasn't clear if there will be an EV variant also). For small cars, doing lower mileage, we're still at a point where a 1/1.2l petrol is cheap and economical. We may need to wait a couple of years for the scales to be tipped, but tip they will.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We've all been conditioned to believe an EV has to have a 300+ mile range, even if a lot of people will charge their car once a week (like an ICE vehicle) and possibly rarely 'fill up' anywhere but home - just as I think in the last two years, I've filled up petrol only three or four times away from my local fuel stations.

Now the market is maturing, we'll hopefully see a larger portfolio of vehicles.. although after I posted earlier, MG has apparently stated it will still be using petrol for its MG3 (but it wasn't clear if there will be an EV variant also). For small cars, doing lower mileage, we're still at a point where a 1/1.2l petrol is cheap and economical. We may need to wait a couple of years for the scales to be tipped, but tip they will.

I think you've got two markets for your typical two-car family. One is typically a large cruiser for a longer commute and family holidays, and needs a longer range (maybe not 300+ miles, but certainly an actual 200 at worst). The other is a small runaround, typically an older petrol car. That one could have a range of maybe 50 miles and be fine, and stuff like old Nissan Leafs with degraded batteries are in that market.

 

[jon0844]

When we had a baby, with baby seat, buggy and other stuff - we had an estate. Now we have a (modern day) Fiesta sized hatchback and do very little mileage.

There is no point having a car that has a long range means carrying around loads of weight when we currently fill the tank once a month.

For a long journey in the summer we needed to fill up away from home, and that might happen once every 6-8 months. If we get an EV, it will be another small car that can be charged as and when at home, and for those near annual long trips, we'll stump up to be ripped off on a rapid charger.

We also went from two cars to one (the second was a diesel, so would have easily done our long journey and all local driving on a single tank there and back) and I suspect more people are going to do that.

Our car is £140 a month on lease. The cheapest EV (which is actually the MG4) is £280 a month, which is actually pretty good IMO, but still more than the cost of fuelling our current car.

Before the MG4, I was seeing most EVs being £300-400 a month (mostly nearer £400) so the gap is reducing rapidly, and the MG4 is a bigger car than we have now. We did have to pack accordingly for our holiday, although for such a rare event it wasn't a massive issue.

I can only hope that even with inflation, we might get EVs for £200-220 a month (equivalent) in the next year or so. Or, if prices come down, we'll probably buy the next car rather than lease.

 

[paul1609]

I think you've got two markets for your typical two-car family. One is typically a large cruiser for a longer commute and family holidays, and needs a longer range (maybe not 300+ miles, but certainly an actual 200 at worst). The other is a small runaround, typically an older petrol car. That one could have a range of maybe 50 miles and be fine, and stuff like old Nissan Leafs with degraded batteries are in that market.

I think a lot of range depends on where you actually live. From me based on Romney Marsh near the Channel Tunnel 200 miles range gets you Newark on the A1, Dorchester going West, the NEC in Birmingham, the middle of nowhere going towards Paris on the a1 and Brussels. Id be looking for at least 300 miles at 70 mph ideally.
I can see that wouldnt be an issue if you lived in Milton Keynes.
The original Nissan Leafs 30/ 40 KW couldnt reach T5 at Heathrow from here at 70 mph when new in M25 conditions, its 92 miles. Yes Im sure secondhand its great for popping to the shops but the emergency ability to pick up Aunt Agy in the 1.2 petrol Dacia Duster from Luton Airport has gone.

 

[Noddy]

I think a lot of range depends on where you actually live. From me based on Romney Marsh near the Channel Tunnel 200 miles range gets you Newark on the A1, Dorchester going West, the NEC in Birmingham, the middle of nowhere going towards Paris on the a1 and Brussels. Id be looking for at least 300 miles at 70 mph ideally.
I can see that wouldnt be an issue if you lived in Milton Keynes.

But 200 miles @ 70mph is a three hour journey. Most larger EVs are in the 250 mile range now including the very good value MG4 long range (£28k). At this point you really should be considering a proper break so why not just use it to stop for a coffee and a loo break at a rapid charger where you’ll probably add another 2 hours worth of range. Grab a meal and you’ll probably be adding another 3 hours of range.

 

[trebor79]

But 200 miles @ 70mph is a three hour journey. Most larger EVs are in the 250 mile range now including the very good value MG4 long range (£28k). At this point you really should be considering a proper break so why not just use it to stop for a coffee and a loo break at a rapid charger where you’ll probably add another 2 hours worth of range. Grab a meal and you’ll probably be adding another 3 hours of range.

Indeed. My Niro isn't the fastest charging car by any means (maxes out at 78kW and doesn't seem to stay there very long). But if I plug in at 15% it's less than 30 minutes to 70% and that's usually plenty to get to the destination, or for another 2 hours motorway driving if it's a very long way to go.
Something with an 800V architecture (Kia EV6, Hyundair Ioniq 5, Porsche) will do that same charge in about 10 minutes and there are plenty of 400V cars that will charge at 120kW, so about 15 minutes.

My wife was worried charging and range was going to be a big deal. It just isn't.