Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[edwin_m]

Mordant just keeping her head down detached enough not to be associated with Sunak although her opportuinty has probably been and goine as Sunak will solder on till late 2024 now.

Maybe his lacklustre performance at PMQs is down to inhaling the fumes.

 

[duncanp]

Mordant just keeping her head down detached enough not to be associated with Sunak although her opportuinty has probably been and goine as Sunak will solder on till late 2024 now.

Penny Mordaunt is positioning herself to take over from Rishi Sunak in the event that the Conservatives lose the next election.

This seems quite a likely prospect at the moment, but the next election doesn't have to be for another two years, and a lot can happen between now and then.

 

[nw1]

Mordant just keeping her head down detached enough not to be associated with Sunak although her opportuinty has probably been and goine as Sunak will solder on till late 2024 now.

I still maintain mid-2024, and most likely first Thursday in May. I really can't see the government wanting to continue for a token extra few months until December or January.

Think about it. In December and January it will be dark, damp and miserable, that is an absolute certainty; and it might be cold. Fuel bills may well still be high. There could be major wind storms or even blizzards. I really can't see the government risking a winter election, just for the sake of an extra few months in power. Add to that the disruptive effect of Christmas. Far better for them to hold an election in May or June, when people are (relatively) more optimistic, the weather will be relatively good, the days will be long (so campaigning can happen) and fuel bills will be relatively low. Some people will be more likely to forgive the Tories if they are feeling optimistic themselves, and, while Labour should win in any case, the margin will likely be smaller in the spring and summer months.

Of course it's still possible that, particularly if they implement an austerity budget and the winter is difficult, this government could destabilise and we end up with an election in late spring or early summer next year. Or failing that we have our 6th Tory prime minister in a row... Gavin Williamson's tarantula, anyone? Would probably do a better job than the past 3...

 

[jfollows]

If Rishi Sunak can negotiate a proper solution to the UK-Ireland-EU relationship, in place of the bonkers nonsense proposed by Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and others, then I will think better of him than I currently do - I already think better or him than either of the people I named. It was obvious from the start that "Northern Ireland" would be a problem, the solution Theresa May proposed wasn't ideal but I was happy with it, but then Boris Johnson signed up to an agreement which he then wanted to break unilaterally.
There are good murmurs around the impending UK-Ireland meetings, so I am hopeful. I expect our politicians to be able to resolve these things sensibly, rather than bluster and threats which is what we've been having, in which nobody wins, least of all the regular citizen.

 

[nw1]

Penny Mordaunt is positioning herself to take over from Rishi Sunak in the event that the Conservatives lose the next election.

This seems quite a likely prospect at the moment, but the next election doesn't have to be for another two years, and a lot can happen between now and then.

Mostly things that will harm the Tories though. A government making austerity cuts at a time when people are struggling (even if they think those cuts are justified) will not endear them to many of us. And as I said above, 18 months is a more realistic time frame to the next election.

The only way I think the Tories can win (either a majority, or largest party) is if the opposition makes really serious mistakes. The Sunak government is still prone to tactical errors (Braverman, Williamson), and is offering nothing in terms of hope or optimism, so I can't see many actively voting for them, only perhaps against Labour.

 

[Gloster]

The Grauniad is reporting that MoD officials believe that Williamson was responsible for a very serious leak, of danger to life level, when he was Defence Secretary. His successor, Mordaunt, was close to issuing a D-notice. Williamson has denied it.

(Sorry, I can’t do a link.)

 

[edwin_m]

If Rishi Sunak can negotiate a proper solution to the UK-Ireland-EU relationship, in place of the bonkers nonsense proposed by Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and others, then I will think better of him than I currently do - I already think better or him than either of the people I named. It was obvious from the start that "Northern Ireland" would be a problem, the solution Theresa May proposed wasn't ideal but I was happy with it, but then Boris Johnson signed up to an agreement which he then wanted to break unilaterally.
There are good murmurs around the impending UK-Ireland meetings, so I am hopeful. I expect our politicians to be able to resolve these things sensibly, rather than bluster and threats which is what we've been having, in which nobody wins, least of all the regular citizen.

That's another one where Sunak is in hock to the ERG, though it was an interesting move by May to put Steve Baker into the NI office so he actually has to be constructive instead of just carping from the sidelines. Also worth noting that the protocol is giving NI an economic advantage over the rest of the UK due to keeping a foot in the single market, but of course the Tories can't use that to undermine the UUP's opposition in case everyone else starts asking for that as well.

 

[duncanp]

It appears quite a number of Conservative MPs have downloaded the App for I'm A Celebrity, just so that they can vote for Matt Hancock to be covered in slime and eat kanagaroo's testicles.

I'm sure that Conservative MPs are not the only people to have done this.

Matt Hancock's colleagues download I'm A Celeb app to vote him in for trials en masse

'Quite a lot of people not too far away from here, House of Commons and House of Lords, have downloaded a certain app so they can vote'

www.telegraph.co.uk

Matt Hancock's colleagues download I'm A Celeb app to vote him in for trials en masse​

'Quite a lot of people not too far away from here, House of Commons and House of Lords, have downloaded a certain app so they can vote'

Matt Hancock appears to be in for a rough ride in the I'm A Celebrity jungle as it emerged a number of his colleagues have downloaded the show's app so they can vote for him to do trials.

The Northern Ireland Secretary has suggested "quite a lot of people" in the House of Commons and House of Lords have downloaded "a certain app" after the former health secretary made his bow on I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here!.

Chris Heaton-Harris said told Sky News: "He should be here with us voting and debating in Parliament."

He added: "So, I know the format of the show. I do believe there's quite a lot of people in a building not too far away from here, the House of Commons and the House of Lords, who've downloaded a certain app so they can vote. I'm not sure if that's a good thing."

Mr Heaton-Harris added: "I read this morning what he said about how he wants to prove that all MPs are human, and that's actually, you know, that is true.

"All MPs are human, but I think we do that every day in our constituencies and what we do in Parliament."

Matt Hancock takes part in first trial (probably of many)​

The former health secretary, 44, took part in the Beastly Burrows challenge with fellow late arrival, comedian Seann Walsh, after the pair entered the jungle during Wednesday evening's episode of the ITV reality show.

After leaving his fellow campmates somewhat disappointed after securing only six out of 11 stars in the challenge with Walsh, 36, Hancock will now face the Tentacles of Terror trial, which is set to air in Thursday night's show.

Hosts Anthony McPartlin and Declan Donnelly delivered the news, after which Hancock said: "Do you know what, I just knew it was going to be me and I still felt nervous."

'All I heard was, bulls---, bulls---, bulls---'​

Mr Hancock caused a stir as he entered the main camp, with many of the show's famous faces shocked to see the West Suffolk MP, who had the Conservative Party whip removed after announcing his plans to join the show.

After Hancock and Walsh arrived, radio DJ Chris Moyles paid a visit to the Bush Telegraph and said: "Oh my god, two new people have arrived.

"One of them is Seann Walsh and the other one - I've got to go back and double check."

Also speaking in the Bush Telegraph, soap star Sue Cleaver added: "I don't know what to say."

Referencing Hancock's role in televised press conferences during the coronavirus pandemic, Moyles, 48, asked: "You've got to get it out of the way for me, please just say, 'Next slide please', and I'm really happy."

After Mr Hancock willingly said: "Next slide please", Culture Club frontman Boy George told him: "You're really going to get it. You're really going to get it. Not from me, I mean, just from..."

TV presenter and property expert Scarlette Douglas also appeared interested in Hancock, asking him: "Why did you decide to come in?"

He replied: "Why? Because, all politicians are known - and me in particular - for being in a very sort of strict way of being, which is just not actually how we are."

Douglas, 35, then asked: "How would you say you were?"

"More human than that," Hancock replied.

When Cleaver, 59, told Hancock he was "a brave man", he said: "Well, we'll see how it goes."

Douglas added: "I'm looking forward to getting to know you outside of everything else. That's going to be good. Just be your authentic self."

In the Bush Telegraph Douglas appeared open to getting to know the MP, saying: "To be fair, everyone's human. We all have our own personalities outside what we are seen in the media.

"So listen, Matt Hancock has come on, he obviously has something to prove, so hey, everyone's got their own reasons as to why they're here."

Mike Tindall was less sympathetic.

The former England rugby player said when he heard Mr Hancock talking, "All I heard was, bulls---, bulls---, bulls---."

Ant and Dec poke fun at new PM after Johnson jibes​

Ant and Dec took Hancock's arrival as an opportunity to poke fun at UK politics and jokingly addressed the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

"I'm not sure how Matt is going to cope in camp though," Ant said.

"You know, surrounded by people who don't know what they're doing, making it up as they go along and just trying to get by day to day."

To which Dec jokingly added: "Evening, Prime Minister."

The jibe comes after the presenting duo also poked fun at former prime minister Boris Johnson during last year's series.

Dec went on to make fun of the Conservative Party's recent leadership changes, adding: "By the way, who am I talking to there? Who is it this week? Is it still Rishi? Is it still him?"

To which Ant replied: "I think so, but they're probably due a new one before Christmas."

The campmates soon began to banter with Hancock and quizzed him over both his political decisions and his motivation for taking part in the show.

 

[nw1]

It appears quite a number of Conservative MPs have downloaded the App for I'm A Celebrity, just so that they can vote for Matt Hancock to be covered in slime and eat kanagaroo's testicles.

I'm sure that Conservative MPs are not the only people to have done this.

Hmmm.. while I'm not a fan of Hancock and while I intensely disliked his Covid hypocrisy, I would urge the Tory MPs to look at themselves before rushing to judge him over "I'm a Celebrity", for heaven's sake. Particularly the likes of that ERG idiot Heaton-Harris.

 

[SuspectUsual]

I still maintain mid-2024, and most likely first Thursday in May. I really can't see the government wanting to continue for a token extra few months until December or January.

Think about it. In December and January it will be dark, damp and miserable, that is an absolute certainty; and it might be cold. Fuel bills may well still be high. There could be major wind storms or even blizzards. I really can't see the government risking a winter election, just for the sake of an extra few months in power. Add to that the disruptive effect of Christmas. Far better for them to hold an election in May or June, when people are (relatively) more optimistic, the weather will be relatively good, the days will be long (so campaigning can happen) and fuel bills will be relatively low. Some people will be more likely to forgive the Tories if they are feeling optimistic themselves, and, while Labour should win in any case, the margin will likely be smaller in the spring and summer months.

Yes, but I’m sure I’ve read that bad weather on election day benefits the Tories, as their voters have above average car ownership and more desire to make sure they vote

 

[Busaholic]

It appears quite a number of Conservative MPs have downloaded the App for I'm A Celebrity, just so that they can vote for Matt Hancock to be covered in slime and eat kanagaroo's testicles.

The first recorded case of b*llocks going into Hancock's mouth rather than coming out of it.

 

[Gloster]

The first recorded case of b*llocks going into Hancock's mouth rather than coming out of it.

Or, if he is served the same culinary delights as Dorries, a case of the a***hole doing the eating, rather than the opposite way round.

 

[birchesgreen]

Danny Baker was right, Hancock should be totally ignored, no attention, no trials. No making him a buffoon raking in the cash, while the many people who still mourn those who lost their lives because of Hancock's decisions are ignored. Hancock being in this show makes me want to vomit. He should be in gaol.

 

[brad465]

The first recorded case of b*llocks going into Hancock's mouth rather than coming out of it.

Also the first bushtucker trial where its contents are not the most disgusting thing the contestant has tasted, after Hancock tasted Gina Coladangelo.

 

[Benters]

 

[brad465]

Here we go, the blame game has begun between Truss and Kwarteng:

I told Liz Truss she was going too fast, says Kwasi Kwarteng

The former chancellor says he told the then PM to "slow down" after September's ill-fated mini-budget.

www.bbc.co.uk

Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has said he warned Liz Truss she was going too fast with her ill-fated economic plans.
In his first interview since he was sacked by the then PM, Mr Kwarteng told TalkTV he had warned her to "slow down" after September's mini-budget.
He said he told her it was "mad" to fire him, and she would only last "three or four weeks" if she did.
"Little did I know it was only going to be six days," he added.
Mr Kwarteng was dramatically fired by Ms Truss in October, two weeks after their tax-cutting mini-budget sparked turmoil on financial markets.
She then ditched almost all of the plan in a bid to stay in power, but announced her resignation a few days later after support from Conservative MPs ebbed away.

Speaking to TalkTV, Mr Kwarteng said that he had warned Ms Truss about going at a "breakneck speed" with economic measures after the mini-budget.
"She said, 'Well, I've only got two years' and I said, 'You will have two months if you carry on like this'. And that is, I'm afraid, what happened."
He also said: "I think the prime minister was very much of the view that we needed to move things fast. But I think it was too quick."
Mr Kwarteng, a longtime political ally and friend of Ms Truss, revealed the then-PM was "distressed and emotional" when she called him in to be fired, after summoning him back from a trip to the US.
He also revealed he found out he was going to be sacked when he saw a journalist tweeting about it while he was in the car going to Downing Street.
He said he had told her: "This is mad. Prime ministers don't get rid of chancellors."
The former chancellor said he did not think the prime minister could fire him "just for implementing what she campaigned on" during her summer Tory leadership campaign.

In the interview, Mr Kwarteng acknowledged he had to "bear some responsibility" for the pace of the changes.
Asked whether he would like to apologise to homeowners facing higher mortgage costs after the mini-budget, he replied: "I don't want to relive the past, I just want to focus on where we are next week. There was turbulence, and I regret that".
He insisted he and Ms Truss were "still friends" - adding that they last spoke around a week ago. He revealed he had still not returned a missed call from her two days ago but added "I will call her back".
Ms Truss is yet to comment on her time in office since quitting Downing Street last month.
In a resignation speech outside No 10, she defended her lower-tax vision for the UK, insisting "We simply cannot afford to be a low-growth country where the government takes up an increasing share of our national wealth."
In an earlier interview, she said she took responsibility for going "too far, too fast" with the tax cuts in the mini-budget.

 

[GusB]

Here we go, the blame game has begun between Truss and Kwarteng:

I told Liz Truss she was going too fast, says Kwasi Kwarteng

The former chancellor says he told the then PM to "slow down" after September's ill-fated mini-budget.

www.bbc.co.uk

Hell hath no fury like a chancellor scorned!

 

[Snow1964]

Yes, but I’m sure I’ve read that bad weather on election day benefits the Tories, as their voters have above average car ownership and more desire to make sure they vote

The 5 years of this Parliament started 17th December 2019, and Parliament needs to be dissolved before 5th anniversary, but are allowed time for elections, hence could be January 2025 election.

But who wants electioneering over Christmas, then if you factor in Parliament doesn’t really sit late July, August, and Conference season (end Sept- Oct), I think we will end up with an election late November 2024. Basically stuck with them for 2 years

I think knowing they will lose, means cling to power as long as practical, ideally avoid electioneering over Christmas as that will be unpopular and put people off voting. However turnout percentage is often higher in Conservative seats so might use that, and can drive to polling stations logic to take last possible date of January 2025

 

[birchesgreen]

Kwarteng is trying to rehabilitate himself i see, saying that he warned Truss the economic plan was going too fast, yet oddly enough he himself said there was more to come.

 

[yorksrob]

Danny Baker was right, Hancock should be totally ignored, no attention, no trials. No making him a buffoon raking in the cash, while the many people who still mourn those who lost their lives because of Hancock's decisions are ignored. Hancock being in this show makes me want to vomit. He should be in gaol.

If the argument is that he should have put in place longer, more swingeing restrictions, I don't think I agree with that sentiment.

 

[najaB]

If the argument is that he should have put in place longer, more swingeing restrictions, I don't think I agree with that sentiment.

The argument is that he should have put restrictions in place sooner, which would have meant a shorter duration overall. But that's really a topic for another thread (or not, since views on this topic are largely set in stone and unlikely to change).

 

[birchesgreen]

Yeah not getting into a covid discussion, the fact remains this man should not be on TV becoming a "celebrity".

 

[nw1]

Yes, but I’m sure I’ve read that bad weather on election day benefits the Tories, as their voters have above average car ownership and more desire to make sure they vote

But it's the swing voters that will most influence things. So if they stay at home it might well count against the Tories.

Certainly those of us who are passionately anti-Tory will absolutely vote, no matter what the weather, next time.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2022 ==

The 5 years of this Parliament started 17th December 2019, and Parliament needs to be dissolved before 5th anniversary, but are allowed time for elections, hence could be January 2025 election.

But who wants electioneering over Christmas, then if you factor in Parliament doesn’t really sit late July, August, and Conference season (end Sept- Oct), I think we will end up with an election late November 2024. Basically stuck with them for 2 years

I think knowing they will lose, means cling to power as long as practical, ideally avoid electioneering over Christmas as that will be unpopular and put people off voting. However turnout percentage is often higher in Conservative seats so might use that, and can drive to polling stations logic to take last possible date of January 2025

Late November is still exceedingly dark (sunsets little different from December, and actually earlier than January) and dismal, it's only light for 8 hours even in the south, and has a tendency to be often extremely wet and windy. It would be as bad a date for an election as January. I maintain May or June 2024 is the latest sensible date, factoring in the summer recess and the conference season.

Anything later than summer 2024 will smack of arrogance of the highest order, and demonstrates that the Tories have not an ounce of contrition for their mistakes. It's disgusting that they should be allowed to carry on for so long without having to answer to us for their wrongdoings. And the problem is not Johnson. It's not Truss. It's the Conservative Party itself.

I hope that if they do make such a decision, the electorate reject them en masse and they end up with a result worse for them than that of 1997. It would certainly be what they deserve for delaying the election un-necessarily beyond the latest sensible and reasonable date, summer 2024.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2022 ==

Danny Baker was right, Hancock should be totally ignored, no attention, no trials. No making him a buffoon raking in the cash, while the many people who still mourn those who lost their lives because of Hancock's decisions are ignored. Hancock being in this show makes me want to vomit. He should be in gaol.

Except Hancock actually imposed what could be argued were overly-long and overly-severe lockdowns. He certainly didn't adopt a Sweden-style free-for-all approach. Sad though it may be, lockdowns do not completely prevent Covid deaths and I don't think Hancock, or Johnson, can be blamed for them. Remember Hancock threatened to not allow people out of their house for a walk at all (though he didn't actually do it). That is not a lax Covid measure, but an excessively authoritarian one, and arguably completely unnecessary.

People have a right to be angry with Hancock, but it should be over the hypocrisy of not following the rules while ordering others to follow them, not because he was lax. The hypocrisy, in 2021, was IMO his biggest wrong-doing.

But I don't want to rush to judge Hancock either way over the "I'm a Celebrity" thing. If he's genuinely sorry for his hypocrisy in conducting his affair and breaking his own rules as a result, I will accept that. He seems to have a bit more contrition than the Government and the Conservative Party as an organisation, at least.

 

[yorksrob]

But that's really a topic for another thread (or not, since views on this topic are largely set in stone and unlikely to change).

Yeah not getting into a covid discussion, the fact remains this man should not be on TV becoming a "celebrity".

This we can agree on (at least not until he's taken the Chiltern Hundreds).

 

[edwin_m]

This we can agree on (at least not until he's taken the Chiltern Hundreds).

Or the revolving door millions?

 

[yorksrob]

Or the revolving door millions?

I believe that may be the more modern equivalent

 

[nw1]

Meanwhile, to get back to the current government:

MoJ staff offered ‘route out’ amid concerns over Dominic Raab behaviour

Exclusive: Some civil servants may have still been traumatised by his previous stint there, sources say

www.theguardian.com

Allegations about Raab not dissimilar to the previous allegations about Patel.

 

[Lost property]

Meanwhile, to get back to the current government:

MoJ staff offered ‘route out’ amid concerns over Dominic Raab behaviour

Exclusive: Some civil servants may have still been traumatised by his previous stint there, sources say

www.theguardian.com

Allegations about Raab not dissimilar to the previous allegations about Patel.

And Gav, don't forget Gav....you could almost say there was a trend emerging really....

 

[Busaholic]

And Gav, don't forget Gav....you could almost say there was a trend emerging really....

Dominic should be Baarred.

 

[Thirteen]

Honestly Raab being an unpleasant person doesn't surprise me. I hope come the next election, he loses his seat.

I agree that a Spring election in 2024 is more likely than late 2024. Either timing with local and Mayoral elections in 2024 would work well or even a month later.