Maybe, and I do agree that prolonged lockdown was a bad idea as it has worsened the economic crisis - but I maintain that it will not be amongst the main issues in 2023/24
You may well be right that this is what will happen in practice. However it’s barely logical for people to throw their force en-masse behind a party, still with the same people at the helm, who have heavily advocated restrictions - seemingly either (1) because they couldn’t put practicality over naked ideology, and/or (2) it was a good opportunity to throw cheap shots at the sitting government.
So in essence let’s all vote for a party who were prepared to throw the less well-off under the bus for two pretty frivolous reasons. It makes no sense at all.
I’m not saying that on balance there isn’t a case for a change of government at this point given how horrific the Conservatives have been, however massive swings to Labour will bring unintended consequences, just like they did in 97, and the less well-off wouldn’t be immune from that, in fact potentially on the contrary. Remember it wasn’t all that long ago that Starmer was being pilloried for being part of the champagne North London set, and it could be argued that his Covid stance reinforces that.
To be honest at this point a 2010 style result and outcome would seem to be the least-worst outcome.
That may be the case, but in actuality, I suspect a huge number of people in 2019 voted for Boris despite him being a Tory, rather than because he was a Tory. I also suspect that many people do not even know who their MP is.
The harsh reality on this is that if people can’t be bothered to take the simple trouble to find out how the political system works, then more fool them.
Perhaps if people weren’t quite so influenced by personality, we as a country might have been spared Johnson in the first place, as for starters he wouldn’t have been seen as such a potential vote-catcher.
It doesn’t of course help that the media are happy to play their part in the personality cult politics, which is remiss.
Long-standing MPs such as Dominic Grieve losing their seat is testament to that. People may have liked Grieve, but in that seat they obviously preferred Boris to Corbyn, so voted for some faceless Tory as a proxy for Boris, rather than the anti-Boris Grieve who they will have seen (rightly or wrongly) as a proxy for Corbyn. Sad (Grieve was a better person than any current Tory MP), but that's the way it actually works.
I think the Grieve situation was rather more complex than that. Firstly, Beaconsfield was 51% remain, which by definition means 49% leave. His heavily pro-remain stance is highly likely to have alienated a good proportion of those 49% (obviously we don’t know for sure how many of the 49% aligned to the Conservative vote share). Then there was the whole deselection saga.
Really people should be voting based on manifesto, though how many people actually know what a manifesto is?
And certainly five years is a ridiculously long amount of time to wait until another election. Time we ditched five-year terms, but, like FPTP, such things benefit powerful incumbent parties so I'm not sure we will unless there is a lot of protest.
I do tend to agree that 4 years seems better, though of course there needs to be some flexibility so you don’t end up with elections in the middle of a crisis. Unintended consequences again.
I completely agree, I wasn't trying to play down the effects of the price rises, quite the converse - but I was trying to make the point that certain people (poorer people, and small-business owners as you say) will be hit harder than others.
Which is fine, however we absolutely should not forget that Labour very strongly advocated policies which have heavily contributed to these price rises. So either Starmer didn’t foresee this consequence, thus incompetence, or he did but didn’t care. Is this *really* the politician who is the solution to all this?
We also shouldn’t forget that the quality of Labour’s opposition has been dire for many years. Mediocre under Miliband, utterly dire under Corbyn, and again mediocre under Starmer. As official opposition, subsidised by the taxpayer, their poor performance has likely contributed to the shambles we’ve seen from the Conservatives. This doesn’t excuse the Conservatives, but equally it’s not a compelling reason for Labour to reap rewards. Our functioning political system relies on an official opposition, and Labour haven’t proved up to the task there.