Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Thirteen]

I think Boris will lose his seat but TBH he'll make big dosh from speeches, TV etc so he won't care I expect Mordaunt or Badenoch will take over as leader if Rishi did step down after losing the election.

 

[WizCastro197]

I think Boris will lose his seat but TBH he'll make big dosh from speeches, TV etc so he won't care I expect Mordaunt or Badenoch will take over as leader if Rishi did step down after losing the election.

Boris doesn't have to lose his seat. I do want him to though.

Just pure speculation but Boris' resignation honours still haven't been released. I can imagine he is waiting until just before the next GE so Dorries is elevated to Lords so he can take the safe seat of Mid-Bedfordshire.

But then again Mid-Bed could be lost again according to Electoral Calculus.

 

[Gloster]

Just pure speculation but Boris' resignation honours still haven't been released. I can imagine he is waiting until just before the next GE so Dorries is elevated to Lords so he can take the safe seat of Mid-Bedfordshire.

It may be that Lord Bew and the House of Lords Appointments Commission are having to take a hard look at some of the nominees (or they just haven’t stopped laughing). Not that Johnson is likely to pay any attention: he didn’t with Lord Cruddas.

 

[duncanp]

But then again Mid-Bed could be lost again according to Electoral Calculus.

Would this be the same Electoral Calculus who predicted a hung parliament in 2015

Track Record: 2015 Errors

The headline prediction for the May 2015 election was not accurate. The final prediction was for a hung parliament with Labour/SNP as the largest bloc. The actual result was a small Conservative majority.

...or who predicted that Theresa May would win a majority of 66 in 2017?

Track Record: 2017 Errors

The headline prediction for the June 2017 election was not accurate. The final prediction was for a Conservative majority government with a majority of 66. The actual result was that the Conservatives were short eight seats of a majority.

 

[WizCastro197]

Would this be the same Electoral Calculus who predicted that Theresa May would win a majority of 66 in the 2017 general election?

Track Record: 2017 Errors

Yes Alright but it isn't as if they were hundreds out was it?

I just like looking at their prediction maps and seeing how much red there is and then I switch it to todays' seats and my eyes start hurting from all the blue.

 

[Darandio]

Yes Alright but it isn't as if they were hundreds out was it?

I just like looking at their prediction maps and seeing how much red there is and then I switch it to todays' seats and my eyes start hurting from all the blue.

A 74 seat swing is the equivalent of thousands!

 

[duncanp]

Yes Alright but it isn't as if they were hundreds out was it?

I just like looking at their prediction maps and seeing how much red there is and then I switch it to todays' seats and my eyes start hurting from all the blue.

Predicting a majority of 66 when in fact the Conservatives were short of a majority by 8 seats is a pretty significant error which calls into question their modelling and the underlying assumptions.

If the opinion polls can turn against the Conservatives with the speed they did after Liz Truss became prime minister, they can also turn in the other direction with equal rapidity.

The Labour lead over the Cnoservatives has shrunk since Rishi Sunak became prime minister, but only time will tell whether this trend continues for the next two years.

 

[najaB]

The Labour lead over the Cnoservatives has shrunk since Rishi Sunak became prime minister, but only time will tell whether this trend continues for the next two years.

That was always going to happen though. A new leader gets a bounce in the polls, the question is how long it lasts.

 

[GusB]

That was always going to happen though. A new leader gets a bounce in the polls, the question is how long it lasts.

And if there are any other scandals that come to light!

 

[dosxuk]

That was always going to happen though. A new leader gets a bounce in the polls, the question is how long it lasts.

Although in the case of Liz it was a negative bounce.

 

[nw1]

Boris doesn't have to lose his seat. I do want him to though.

I think he would if he fought Uxbridge next time. But he won't; if he stays on as an MP, he will move.

Just pure speculation but Boris' resignation honours still haven't been released. I can imagine he is waiting until just before the next GE so Dorries is elevated to Lords so he can take the safe seat of Mid-Bedfordshire.

But then again Mid-Bed could be lost again according to Electoral Calculus.

Highly unlikely I would say. So I'd say it is a potential Boris seat; Reigate is another one which I have seen, as Crispin "Imran Ahmad-Khan's chum" Blunt is stepping down too, from my understanding. But maybe Raab, whose seat is definitely under threat, will be targeting that one as it's geographically close to Esher.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2022 ==

If the opinion polls can turn against the Conservatives with the speed they did after Liz Truss became prime minister, they can also turn in the other direction with equal rapidity.

Except this tired government of the same old people isn't going to do that. People might dislike Sunak less than Truss, but there isn't anything about this government which will cause people to actively like them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2022 ==

Being required to use an official phone I can understand, but are calls recorded?
..
My prediction: Sunak struggles to the end of the parliament,

I'd say June 2024. I doubt they will go for another silly winter election again, that smacks of both desperation and arrogance. Not to mention that a winter election will be during a time of high fuel bills, which will scarcely favour the Tories.

Sir Keir wins the general election and becomes PM, Sunak resigns as tory leader, BoJo returns as tory leader after being cleared (or not) of wrongdoing, BoJo becomes PM again later.

I think the Boris ship will have sailed by then. I also suspect that they won't choose a right-winger like Badenoch either. I would hope that the Tories will ditch the whole right-wing lot (as right-wing politics can't be fashionable forever) and try and reset back to the pre-2019 norm of a more centre-right, less isolationist position.

 

[najaB]

Except this tired government of the same old people isn't going to do that. People might dislike Sunak less than Truss, but there isn't anything about this government which will cause people to actively like them.

That's exactly the problem facing the Tories - there is almost nothing they can do now to increase their favourability with the uncommitted voter. They can only hope to shore up their support with their faithful and try to minimise the damage.

 

[birchesgreen]

That's exactly the problem facing the Tories - there is almost nothing they can do now to increase their favourability with the uncommitted voter. They can only hope to shore up their support with their faithful and try to minimise the damage.

Or use their mates in the media to scare people into not voting for the opposition. I expect a lot of that.

 

[Thirteen]

I think he would if he fought Uxbridge next time. But he won't; if he stays on as an MP, he will move.

Highly unlikely I would say. So I'd say it is a potential Boris seat; Reigate is another one which I have seen, as Crispin "Imran Ahmad-Khan's chum" Blunt is stepping down too, from my understanding. But maybe Raab, whose seat is definitely under threat, will be targeting that one as it's geographically close to Esher.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2022 ==


Except this tired government of the same old people isn't going to do that. People might dislike Sunak less than Truss, but there isn't anything about this government which will cause people to actively like them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2022 ==


I'd say June 2024. I doubt they will go for another silly winter election again, that smacks of both desperation and arrogance. Not to mention that a winter election will be during a time of high fuel bills, which will scarcely favour the Tories.

I think the Boris ship will have sailed by then. I also suspect that they won't choose a right-winger like Badenoch either. I would hope that the Tories will ditch the whole right-wing lot (as right-wing politics can't be fashionable forever) and try and reset back to the pre-2019 norm of a more centre-right, less isolationist position.

Wouldn't it be better to tie the General Elections with local and Mayoral Election in May 2024?

 

[GS250]

Predicting a majority of 66 when in fact the Conservatives were short of a majority by 8 seats is a pretty significant error which calls into question their modelling and the underlying assumptions.

If the opinion polls can turn against the Conservatives with the speed they did after Liz Truss became prime minister, they can also turn in the other direction with equal rapidity.

The Labour lead over the Cnoservatives has shrunk since Rishi Sunak became prime minister, but only time will tell whether this trend continues for the next two years.

Yep. That 2017 election completely blew any confidence in opinion polling. Translate that level of inaccuracy to the current opinion polling and that's Labour with a small majority of which is pretty much standard polling for an opposition mid term. Especially when the present government is seen to be poorly performing. Potentially then, not looking so great for ardent Labour supporters when it actually comes to voting time. Does not appear that the MSM have really endorsed Sir Keir Starmer either of which can influence late or floating votes.

Since then we've had all sorts of nonsense in various opinion polls. Not one of them predicted the near Tory landslide in 2019. One of them, infamously even had Labour ahead with a week or so to go!

About the only thing they did generally get right was the brexit vote. Most polls were neck and neck throughout. I don't recall any of them predicting a big leave/remain vote.

 

[DelayRepay]

Not one of them predicted the near Tory landslide in 2019. One of them, infamously even had Labour ahead with a week or so to go!

I think this particular fact makes any current polls difficult to judge. We know the Tory landslide was due to them taking the traditional Red Wall seats, which was probably a combination of Brexit and anybody but Corbyn. There's also the fact that, for reasons I'll never understand, Boris was/is personally very popular. Maybe some of those traditional Labour voters only changed their minds at the last minute, or maybe they were ashamed so lied to the pollsters.

But regardless of the reasons, it makes the next poll very difficult to judge - will those voters return to Labour, now Brexit's done and both parties have new leaders?

While I would love to see a Labour government, I can see a repeat of 2010, where the Lib Dems (and maybe this time the SNP) end up as king-makers.

 

[nw1]

Yep. That 2017 election completely blew any confidence in opinion polling. Translate that level of inaccuracy to the current opinion polling and that's Labour with a small majority of which is pretty much standard polling for an opposition mid term.

But then such "standard polling" is an opinion poll too. Why should current opinion polls be less accurate than opinion polls in previous mid-term polling?

Especially when the present government is seen to be poorly performing. Potentially then, not looking so great for ardent Labour supporters when it actually comes to voting time. Does not appear that the MSM have really endorsed Sir Keir Starmer either of which can influence late or floating votes.

I would still be rather surprised if Labour were not the largest party, albeit possibly with a hung parliament.

 

[Lost property]

And if there are any other scandals that come to light!

Our new, well ok, second hand as she already had the job once, Home Sec may well be useful here...she appears to be working very hard at it...and then there's Boris..and the Parliamentary Standards Committe report early next year, could be wrong on the timing, not that Boris or any of the Gov't have any standards in the first place.

 

[birchesgreen]

Braverman really needs to go but i suspect the PM doesn't want to sack her as it'll make him look like an idiot, though the longer its left the worse it could get for him. Oh dear. Never mind.

 

[dosxuk]

With polling the important figures are confidence and margin-of-error. The majority of the polls at the last few elections were actually within their margin of error figures of the final result - it felt more like the analysis was out than the actual raw data. There's also the issue of the media (and some analysists) only reporting the headline figures and stating them as fact.

This is a "poll-of-polls" graphic from Wikipedia for the 2019 election, from when campaigning officially started to the day of the election.

The actual result was CON 45%, LAB 33%, LDM 12%, BRX 2% - with pretty much every poll around the final date being within a percentage point or two.

Here's the same graphic for 2017

Actual result CON 44%, LAB 41%, LDM 8%, UKIP 2%. The only real outlier was the Labour figure - with them performing more strongly than expected.

I know many people take comfort that the polls are completely useless when they report that their party is tanking in the ratings, but unfortunately it doesn't reflect reality.

 

[najaB]

I know many people take comfort that the polls are completely useless when they report that their party is tanking in the ratings, but unfortunately it doesn't reflect reality.

The other thing to keep in mind is that a lot of the seats had pretty small margins, so the results could have been swung by very small "on the day" things rather than by the issues.

 

[Busaholic]

Braverman will have to go! As per usual with this lot she'll attempt to brazen it out, but as soon as some Tory MPs say in public what they are saying to political editors and other reporters 'off the record' it'll be end days, part 2.

Now I know why the Mail on Sunday attempted a smokescreen with their Truss mobile phone/Russia 'revelations' yesterday, weeks after they were known about. Truss is written off in Tory election terms now anyway, so it was never going to be a poll turner compared to Cruella's reversion to type.

 

[GS250]

Maybe some of those traditional Labour voters only changed their minds at the last minute, or maybe they were ashamed so lied to the pollsters.

I think that last part is very pertinent. The taboo associated with voting in a certain manner will affect the disclosure of such detail.

They do talk about the 'silent majority' but I believe some will actually give a false answer to feel in compliance.

 

[brad465]

Labour should win but they won't command a big majority as Sunak government has reinstated semi-competence and that lead in the polls will soon be back in the teens. Braverman issues will blow over although i hope they don't but at the end of the day most people will recognise that they've dropped clangers with phones themselves and issue will run out of miles.

But by the same logic there are also people who know that they'd be fired in their organisation for doing the same sort of thing Braverman has reported to have done repeatedly, maybe even be fired for a lesser offence than this, and will thus see this as a concern.

 

[nw1]

Wouldn't it be better to tie the General Elections with local and Mayoral Election in May 2024?

Well it would give us one less month with the Tories in power

Seriously, yes, that would make sense. Get the whole lot done the same day, that's presumably why first Thursday in May is so common.

 

[Thirteen]

Well it would give us one less month with the Tories in power

Seriously, yes, that would make sense. Get the whole lot done the same day, that's presumably why first Thursday in May is so common.

The only thing that might sway against having all elections on one day is paperwork, could you imagine what would happen if someone mixed their MP ballot with their Mayoral choice ballot.

 

[najaB]

But by the same logic there are also people who know that they'd be fired in their organisation for doing the same sort of thing Braverman has reported to have done repeatedly, maybe even be fired for a lesser offence than this, and will thus see this as a concern.

Exactly. I'd be out the door so fast that my feet wouldn't hit the floor.

 

[dosxuk]

The only thing that might sway against having all elections on one day is paperwork, could you imagine what would happen if someone mixed their MP ballot with their Mayoral choice ballot.

In my experience, having only a single ballot at an election is a rarity - they're often linked to council, district or other elections, and often to local referenda too. I think one time I ended up with about five different ballots to fill in.

 

[Gloster]

Don’t they normally have different colours for the different ballot papers? I vaguely remember somebody wittering about having a green paper was giving an unfair advantage to the Greens.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

In my experience, having only a single ballot at an election is a rarity - they're often linked to council, district or other elections, and often to local referenda too. I think one time I ended up with about five different ballots to fill in.

Yep. May elections are typical because of the administrative convenience.

June elections are also fairly common (1970, 1983, 1987, 2001, 2017). I think the common factor is going to be, Governments that still have at least a year to run getting reasonably good local election results in May, and therefore deciding that right now would be a great time to have an election. (1970 turned out to be a big miscalculation by Harold Wilson).