UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Snow1964]

Moderator Note : thread is for discussion of the numbers. Speculative posts as to how they can be improved must be posted in the Speculation Discussion section of the forum.


DfT have today updated their busyness tables vs pre-covid

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

Many of the daily rail figures (column G) are now 82-91% over last month (excluding strike days)

Weekend figures are generally 89-91% of pre-covid

Highest % recently was bank holiday 29th August at 96%


My guess is if commuting is being reported as below 75% on some lines, then there must be some lines well over 100% of pre covid if getting average of 91%

 

[Bald Rick]

My guess is if commuting is being reported as below 75% on some lines, then there must be some lines well over 100% of pre covid if getting average of 91%

Dont forget that commuting is rarely more than half of passenger numbers on any given line.

 

[Western 52]

I don't know the actual figures, but it seems there are fewer commuters on the Swansea to Carmarthen route than pre-covid, but off peak trains seem busier. Is this the general pattern elsewhere?

 

[43096]

Dont forget that commuting is rarely more than half of passenger numbers on any given line.

I was shocked this morning at just how empty my peak Reading-Waterloo service was (and this is a Wednesday, one of the busier days of the week). Pre-Covid it would be all seats taken from Virginia Water in and completely full from Feltham - there was also a relief than ran 7 or 8 minutes behind it, too. Today there were plenty of seats available all the way in, including from Twickenham and Richmond.

The evening peak was different, as the 1750 was packed just how it used to be, but note the 1735 and 1805 services no longer run (could do with putting the 1735 back in, really).

So, yes, I'd be surprised if peak usage was anything above 50%.

 

[12LDA28C]

These reports generally refer to 'passenger numbers' as a percentage of pre-Covid levels not broken down by time of travel. Numbers are most certainly down at peak times although this too changes from day-to-day with more people who would have previously commuted 5 days a week now working from home often on a Monday and Friday with midweek commuter numbers reduced slightly less in relation to pre-Covid. The high overall percentage of passenger numbers indicates that on many commuter routes and especially on long-distance routes that off-peak and leisure travel is often at more than 100% of pre-Covid levels which is credited with driving the recovery of passenger numbers since the withdrawal of travel restrictions.

 

[yorksrob]

My 158 is full and standing along the aisles mid week mornings. Pre covid it was a 3 carriage 144 but the same.

 

[ATS3]

Rush hour in London seems normal now, missing out Fridays (I recon WFH has died down a lot now, thank god) probably due to the 4 day working week.

 

[pnepaul]

Today in Carlisle
9.49 Carlisle to Euston full and some standing
10.08 Carlisle to Euston via Brum, I managed to get one of the few remaining seats ( I didn't have a reserved seat )
11.41 Preston to Glasgow full and standing
11.53 Preston to Edinburgh full and some standing
12.04 Preston to Glasgow TPE - lightly loaded! I caught that one

Just for interest
13.49 Carlisle to Euston full and standing
14.08 Carlisle to Euston via Brum full and some standing
14.49 Carlisle to Euston already shown on the PIS boards and full and standing

 

[miklcct]

2022-10-16 (Sunday)
Jubilee 15:43 Wembley Park - Willesden Green: mostly empty
Metropolitan 14:57 Chesham - Wembley Park: empty
Metropolitan 08:54 Harrow-on-the-Hill - Chesham (fast): empty
Metropolitan 08:28 Wembley Park - Harrow-on-the-Hill: empty
Jubilee 08:20 Willesden Green - Wembley Park: empty

2022-10-15 (Saturday)
Thameslink 18:52 St Albans City - Cricklewood: empty
Thameslink 15:16 Cricklewood - St Albans City: mostly empty

It seems that weekend traffic on the suburban lines are still empty.

 

[route101]

Rush hour in London seems normal now, missing out Fridays (I recon WFH has died down a lot now, thank god) probably due to the 4 day working week.

I still think WFH is big but now more Hybrid way..

 

[E27007]

I still think WFH is big but now more Hybrid way..

The Report issued on October 15th by the Governor of the Bank of England, highlights the reduced supply side (a shortage) of the workforce with their shoulder to the wheel and low unemployment figures. My opinion : Basically people having tasted the freedom of lockdown while the Planet "Stopped" and some chose twork-life balance.o "Get Off".

i retired in May 2020, my shoulder off the wheel, to return after 6 months later in a zero- hour capacity (my choice), best of my decisions for a long time, I work when I feel the urge, or a major bill to pay.
I sit on the sideline, the "Eton Mess" which is our economy , our Govts have engineered is their problem to solve , not mine

 

[CAF397]

A disclaimer on the phrase "full and standing" being used anecdotally. I've observed, and been on, trains where the vestibles have people standing in which appear full, but on further investigation the number of people standing could easily be accommodated in the scattered empty seats through the train.

It's highly likely that post-pandemic people may still choose not to sit next to strangers and will prefer to stand. Before covid, even I would stand if it was a short journey than sit next to someone.

Granted, trains are definitely busy now (which is good), but just because people stand in vesibles/doorways does not always mean they couldn't sit in a seat.

 

[Snow1964]

DfT has just updated its figures on passengers vs pre covid
Most recent weekday (17th Oct) is 86%

(data for rail is column G) on this link

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

I might be wrong, but I would have thought 86% means some busyness problems, as that is over 6 out of 7.
Are any companies still operating less than 6 in 7 weekday trains

 

[bib]

Interesting there were about 3 weeks at 90% around end of August / start of September. Seems to have dropped back 5-10% since then. Tube is also notably lower than National Rail, presumably more affected by WFH.

 

[al78]

I commute from Horsham to Farringdon every Tuesday and have done so over the last year. My experience is the train is quiet going into London, but that may be because I catch a 7:55 train which is later than most people. Coming home, the train is much busier although I remember worse pre-pandemic in the evening peak and there is always a large crowd getting off at Horsham, which I guess are commuters that caught an earlier train than me in the morning..

 

[YorkshireBear]

Interesting there were about 3 weeks at 90% around end of August / start of September. Seems to have dropped back 5-10% since then. Tube is also notably lower than National Rail, presumably more affected by WFH.

Leisure travel is such a large part now so that makes sense.

 

[deltic]

South Western Railways when introducing its December timetable reported that total numbers have stabilised around 69% of pre-pandemic levels, and peak time travel at just 53%.

 

[Snow1964]

South Western Railways when introducing its December timetable reported that total numbers have stabilised around 69% of pre-pandemic levels, and peak time travel at just 53%.

Which is rather inconsistent with DfT saying mid 70s % for many dates, and latest weekday figure of 86%

Or could be SWR is below average, but other operators are offsetting as they are 100+%

 

[Bald Rick]

Interesting there were about 3 weeks at 90% around end of August / start of September. Seems to have dropped back 5-10% since then. Tube is also notably lower than National Rail, presumably more affected by WFH.

A small part of this is because the Elizabeth line has opened, and there has been a noticeable transfer of passengers from tube to ‘National Rail‘ as a result.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Oct 2022 ==

Or could be SWR is below average, but other operators are offsetting as they are 100+%

clearly the whole network number is the whole network, and individual operators will vary.

Some operators are above the average, and some are below. Also, as I mention above, it is not quite a level playing field - the number of TfL Rail / Elizabeth Line passengers will be well over 200% compared to Pre Covid. EMR is also doing very well due to the extra electric services taking passengers from Thameslink.

 

[Watershed]

Which is rather inconsistent with DfT saying mid 70s % for many dates, and latest weekday figure of 86%

Or could be SWR is below average, but other operators are offsetting as they are 100+%

Not at all inconsistent. ORR figures show that SWR's passenger recovery has been the slowest out of any operator, except for ScotRail. Other operators such as LNER have already exceeded 100% of pre-Covid passengers, and Lumo didn't start running services until last year.

 

[12LDA28C]

Grand Central have also announced that their passenger numbers are well above pre-Covid levels, now at 112% of 2019 numbers.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Interesting there were about 3 weeks at 90% around end of August / start of September. Seems to have dropped back 5-10% since then.

The strikes and various timetable meltdowns are likely to be the reason for this drop.

It won't be seasonal because the figures are measured as a percentage of the equivalent time in 2019.

 

[dk1]

The strikes and various timetable meltdowns are likely to be the reason for this drop.

It won't be seasonal because the figures are measured as a percentage of the equivalent time in 2019.

Agreed.

 

[Bald Rick]

The strikes and various timetable meltdowns are likely to be the reason for this drop.

It won't be seasonal because the figures are measured as a percentage of the equivalent time in 2019.

It’s more nuanced than that.

Leisure travel has recovered well, indeed better than Pre Covid. Commuting and business travel is still well short.

In pre covid Augusts and early Septembers, there was always a higher proportion of leisure travellers than average, and a lower proportion of commuter / business travellers. Whereas in October leisure falls of& and commuting and business return.

Now, there’s even more leisure travellers, but fewer commuters and business.

I‘ll try to illustrate, with some fictional (but close enough) numbers.

Pre Covid August segmentation of passengers:

Leisure travel 60%
Commuting 30%
Business 10%

Pre Covid October segmentation of passengers

Leisure 40%
Commuting 45%
Business 15%

Current ‘return rate’ as a % of 2019 (which is consistent across the months)

Leisure 110%
commuting 60%
business 30%


August 2022 numbers:

Leisure 66% (60*110%)
commuting 18% (30*60%)
business 3% (10*30%)

total 87%

October 2022 numbers

Leisure 44% (40*110%)
commuting 27% (45*60%)
business 4.5% (15*30%)

total 75.5%

 

[aavm]

Southeastern's website:
"While the number of weekend customers has recovered strongly, weekday peak-time journeys are at just 56% of pre-Covid demand while weekday off-peak journeys are at around 77%.
Fewer customers with Season tickets are also travelling with us – compared with before the pandemic only 32% of journeys are purchased with Season tickets."

 

[The exile]

Southeastern's website:
"While the number of weekend customers has recovered strongly, weekday peak-time journeys are at just 56% of pre-Covid demand while weekday off-peak journeys are at around 77%.
Fewer customers with Season tickets are also travelling with us – compared with before the pandemic only 32% of journeys are purchased with Season tickets.

Strikes aren’t going to help here. I’m a GWR passenger, not SWR but haven’t bought a monthly since the start of the strikes. Weeklies are only worth while if used for the full 5 days, so I’ve been doing a lot of driving (cheaper even with a season, but more stress)

 

[ChrisC]

It’s more nuanced than that.

Leisure travel has recovered well, indeed better than Pre Covid. Commuting and business travel is still well short.

In pre covid Augusts and early Septembers, there was always a higher proportion of leisure travellers than average, and a lower proportion of commuter / business travellers. Whereas in October leisure falls of& and commuting and business return.

Now, there’s even more leisure travellers, but fewer commuters and business.

It has been very encouraging how well leisure travel was recovering following Covid. I do wonder how much the recovery of passenger numbers for leisure purposes is now stalling due to the strikes, especially as so many of the strikes have been on a Saturday.

My main use of the railways is for leisure use. I would usually have at least half a dozen holidays a year in the UK travelling by train and often making use of regional rovers. I haven’t done that since May and have no plans to book anything until the strikes are over. With only having 14 days notice, booking hotels have to be at either more expensive flexible rates or leaving it until the last minute risking everywhere being fully booked or even higher prices. I also have not been doing many day trips by train because of the stress of trains being cancelled especially on the evening return journey.
I’m actually now beginning to enjoy taking holidays using my car and staying in locations that are not so convenient for rail travel.

 

[43096]

It has been very encouraging how well leisure travel was recovering following Covid. I do wonder how much the recovery of passenger numbers for leisure purposes is now stalling due to the strikes, especially as so many of the strikes have been on a Saturday.

That is an interesting question. Certainly National Express have reported increased business as a result of the strikes.

UK rail strikes fuel rebound in fortunes at National Express

Shuttling police officers for Queen’s funeral also helped coach firm as revenue leaps 33%

www.theguardian.com

National Express has reported a further rebound in passengers and a rise in revenues after it stepped up services during rail strikes and helped shuttle police during the Queen’s funeral.

The coach and bus operator said revenues rose by 33% in the three months to the end of September and were now above 2019 levels, thanks in part to strong growth in its UK and Spanish coach business.

In the UK, it said demand was partly driven by industrial action on the country’s train network. That included August strikes by rail operators that halted intercity trains across Britain.

 

[SamYeager]

My main use of the railways is for leisure use. I would usually have at least half a dozen holidays a year in the UK travelling by train and often making use of regional rovers. I haven’t done that since May and have no plans to book anything until the strikes are over. With only having 14 days notice, booking hotels have to be at either more expensive flexible rates or leaving it until the last minute risking everywhere being fully booked or even higher prices. I also have not been doing many day trips by train because of the stress of trains being cancelled especially on the evening return journey.
I’m actually now beginning to enjoy taking holidays using my car and staying in locations that are not so convenient for rail travel.

Now that we're moving towards winter I wonder just how much the general public, sometimes known as customers, will move away from their brief flirtation with the railway regardless of the "climate emergency" the MSM keeps telling us about. Perhaps the future of the railway should be BR 2.0 - much lower train frequency and higher prices - together with a reduced budget. After all there's a "financial crisis" you know and everyone's got to tighten their belt. At least it might solve the driver shortage problem.

 

[miklcct]

I’m actually now beginning to enjoy taking holidays using my car and staying in locations that are not so convenient for rail travel.

Given the cost of living crisis having a car will become further and further out of reach for me.

The all-inclusive rent for my home will be increased by about 15% in the next half a year and it'll be difficult to make up this amount even by reducing train travel. Furthermore, it may even make desirable jobs (those with reasonable salary in the country but much lower than London prices but can offer me career growth - while I can't find one within London) out of reach for me unless it's possible for me to commute using off-peak train tickets. (I'm interested in a job in Milton Keynes - the notorious car-dependent city - with salary too low to afford a car, but the cost of commuting is only affordable if I can use off-peak tickets, valid from 08:45, from Watford Junction - in addition, I will also need to cycle from my home to Willesden Junction to avoid peak Oyster fare as well, as the morning peak from Willesden Junction to Watford Junction is off-peak on PAYG.)