Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[jfollows]

EPR used to be European Pressurised Reactor, some (including me) think it over-engineered and over-expensive and over-difficult to build, but is essentially a political solution to enable it to be built in the face of negative public reaction whenever the word "nuclear" is used.
SMR is Small Modular Reactor made by Rolls Royce following the US lead as reactors for submarines and the like. Their small size and relative simplicity has resulted in them being reliable and predictable, but again politics will prevent them being used because people don't want them at the end of their gardens.

 

[Sm5]

I'm not sure where you get the idea that all canvassing is restricted to a few seats now. I'd there are a couple of hundred seats which are barely contested at all, and a couple of hundred more where most parties won't get out to all doors, although they will often have a target of doing them all at least once. The remaining third will still get an effective canvas from several parties, unless it's biting cold and dark. Even where there is no canvas there is typically leaflet distribution via volunteers which happens much less effectively in winter.

It's fair to say that urban areas are better covered than very suburban or rural areas, but then people with long drives who live a mile from their nearest neighbour take 10x as long to canvas but still only get one vote.

People vote by how they feel, for many who are passive about politics its an emotional thing not a personal policy thing. Thats why in good times the turnout is so low, no one gives a monkeys, but when things turn sour the rebel vote comes out for change.

So i’m not sure canvassing really works anyway.

I've never had them knocking in my door, usually I get a leaflet shoved through my letter box by the opposition and you hear nothing of the incumbent.

inbetween that is those who are entrenched in politics and why marginals are decided by few votes.

The last election was bought and paid by Farage, its scary that its so easy to manipulate the voting system.., strain a few rebel votes from Labour for brexit, simply tipped the edge in Tories favour… this whole blue wall of the north thing is rubbish.. Farage is gone, the red vote isnt back, because it never went, just enough voters got distracted. But as the economy in the south is struggling, its putting the tories even more at risk.

It’ll be 1997 all over again, doesnt matter when the election is, the farage protection of 2019 is gone. I only ever thought Truss was only put there to window dress for 2 years and blame the failure on her. Now it seems the tory seedlings are seeing the inevitable and are starting to panic but imo its irelevent as it goes back to my opening line..

People vote by how they feel, for many who are passive about politics its an emotional thing not a personal policy thing. Thats why in good times the turnout is so low, no one gives a monkeys, but when things turn sour the rebel vote comes out for change.

imo we need to change fix term parliaments of 5 years, it invites corruption. We should also consider the australian system of mandatory voting... people died for that right to vote. I also think party politics should be replaced by independant voting..

if all MPs were unaligned your not voting for a football team, but a local popularity contest… which means they have to work for your vote and keep it, not relying on a colour to sail you in. That means voting on local benefits, not party ones and gives them freedom to move around policies as they wish, not told.

That wont happen as it gives more control to the people and takes ”insert word of choice” money from the political elite that keeps them there, and instills that lack of belief in the system by passive voters.

I doubt there will be an election for 2 years, Turkeys never vote for christmas. The concern is what state will the country until then, as the international markets have already identified us as the weak basket case we are, nothing is going to change that until there is an election. It makes no difference if Truss stays or goes were going to be an economic football given a good kicking and an easy source of profit by the money markets until then as its an easy southbound bet.

 

[deltic]

I'm not sure where you get the idea that all canvassing is restricted to a few seats now. I'd there are a couple of hundred seats which are barely contested at all, and a couple of hundred more where most parties won't get out to all doors, although they will often have a target of doing them all at least once. The remaining third will still get an effective canvas from several parties, unless it's biting cold and dark. Even where there is no canvas there is typically leaflet distribution via volunteers which happens much less effectively in winter.

It's fair to say that urban areas are better covered than very suburban or rural areas, but then people with long drives who live a mile from their nearest neighbour take 10x as long to canvas but still only get one vote.

That's not my experience from campaigning in various elections over the years. Canvassing takes place over the year - its a bit late during an election campaign. Then targeted literature is delivered depending on the responses you have. Relatively few seats will have active door knocking across the constituency as resources are ploughed into marginal/winnable seats. Agree leafleting is still fairly widespread but even that is declining as parties struggle to attract enough volunteers.

 

[Sm5]

That's not my experience from campaigning in various elections over the years. Canvassing takes place over the year - its a bit late during an election campaign. Then targeted literature is delivered depending on the responses you have. Relatively few seats will have active door knocking across the constituency as resources are ploughed into marginal/winnable seats. Agree leafleting is still fairly widespread but even that is declining as parties struggle to attract enough volunteers.

That amplifies the issue…

if you cant get volunteers to canvass, and people dont read it anyway, then why bother ?

As side of rebel voting, politics is becoming irelevent to most people. They find it doesnt do anything for them and dont have faith/trust in it. Politicians are seen as a joke to many.

our local mp a few years back made a big thing about restoring post covid service frequencies.. until I pointed out that the decision was already taken with the upcoming December time table change.. and posted the link to RTT, then he took the whole lot down. As it turned out the rehash was canceled and the service actually got worse.

You cant trust politicians, he had no more influence over the train schedules than I do, but still makes out he does to those who dont know better.

 

[jfollows]

That's not my experience from campaigning in various elections over the years. Canvassing takes place over the year - its a bit late during an election campaign. Then targeted literature is delivered depending on the responses you have. Relatively few seats will have active door knocking across the constituency as resources are ploughed into marginal/winnable seats. Agree leafleting is still fairly widespread but even that is declining as parties struggle to attract enough volunteers.

I can believe this - here in Tatton we are in something like the 70th.-safest seat in the country (depending on your definition of how this is worked out of course, I'm using https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html), so in normal circumstances anything with a blue rosette will get elected here, and it's been ten years or more since anyone has knocked on the door, and more recently there's been less and less leafletting.

So for this constituency I can't see much of a difference between a summer or a winter election.

I also vote by post and increasing numbers of people do so nowadays compared even to ten years ago, because the law was changed to allow postal voting "by right" rather than something you had to give a reason to be allowed to do.

But there will always be marginal seats and it makes sense to target these because getting tens of additional voters for your cause could change the result of the election.

 

[nw1]

A winter election does have the risk of severe weather such as large windstorm like storm Eunice that happened this February or heavy snowfall. Such weather would I suspect seriously impact turnout and would create a large number of logistical and safety issues with the election.

Very good point, didn't think of that but equally valid.

The "significant risk of major disruptive storm" season of course has already started, as those of us around in 1987 will well remember. Essentially October to February are a no-go, the realistic election season is March to September but then you have to factor in the summer holiday season, meaning July and August are not really recommended. September, too, except perhaps the very end of the month, given that the campaigning season for a September election would have to be in August. So that limits it to March-June and perhaps late September, and all but the 'Boris special' in recent times have occurred in that window.

I'm still not convinced that an election won't happen. Maybe we have to think outside the UK box here; other democratic countries (I can think of various continental countries, plus, I think, Israel) often seem to get into a situation of an election happening when the government's in trouble. Of course that can lead to problems (Italy) but in this country, unless Farage comes back, quite frankly I don't think we can do any worse.

 

[Sm5]

Very good point, didn't think of that but equally valid.

The "significant risk of major disruptive storm" season of course has already started, as those of us around in 1987 will well remember. Essentially October to February are a no-go, the realistic election season is March to September but then you have to factor in the summer holiday season, meaning July and August are not really realistic. September, too, given that the campaigning season would have to be in August. So that limits it to March-June, and all but the 'Boris special' in recent times have occurred in that window.

I'm still not convinced that an election won't happen. Maybe we have to think outside the UK box here; other democratic countries (I can think of various continental countries, plus, I think, Israel) often seem to get into a situation of an election happening when the government's in trouble.

Why would they vote themselves out of a job ?
They are going to hang on until the end, thats all they ever do when they know there beaten… its like watching an England football win.. minimum effort followed by the last 10 minutes of desperation.

They will only vote for a GE if they know the worst is coming to the country and want to pin it on the other side… I actually think the rest of the world is waiting for this lot of arrogant nationalistas to be out and hope to have intelligent pro-global trade discussions with the new lot… sooner the better.

But this lot are too tightly packed in the trough to give up food, I dont reckon they’ll move a day before they are forced to, for a lot of them it will be their last shot at the big time. Its like watching drunks at the casino, theyve blown the lot, maxing out their card and others are seeing it too embarrassing to sit at the same international table with them. Until the casino closes they will sit on the chair mumbling random statements and expelling smelly gases, putting ever small stakes on the table until it runs out or they pass out.

 

[nw1]

No PM will take any notice of the public or press clamoring for a general election they know they are going to get wiped out in.

Though elections are forced in other democratic countries. Italy for example seems to be having them more or less all the time (and let's hope they have yet another one before too long, as soon as people realise what Meloni is like...)

Winter elections will not be a disaster for campaigning, as we saw in 2019. As many people on this forum note people don't go round knocking on doors like they used to unless you live in the 50 most marginal seats. Its all done via the media, social or mainstream or 'phone. There is no evidence in the UK that the weather impacts election turnouts, especially as a much higher percentage now vote postally.

Maybe but the other factor of course is I suspect people's mood will help, or hinder, the incumbents. In dark, miserable months like December or January, people are going to be more down, more miserable, and more angry than the rest of the year. Plus, they'll have high fuel bills to deal with of course. All of which will not help the incumbents.

Hold a May election, the weather's warmer and drier, fuel bills drop, sunset is at a sensible time, the environment is beautiful (unlike the bleak brutalism of December or January), and people are generally happier and more positive about life. Critical Tory swing voters might decide to forgive them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Oct 2022 ==

Why would they vote themselves out of a job ?
They are going to hang on until the end, thats all they ever do when they know there beaten… its like watching an England football win.. minimum effort followed by the last 10 minutes of desperation.

They will only vote for a GE if they know the worst is coming to the country and want to pin it on the other side… I actually think the rest of the world is waiting for this lot of arrogant nationalistas to be out and hope to have intelligent pro-global trade discussions with the new lot… sooner the better.

The other thing is that if they allow Labour in soon, with the cost of living crisis still ongoing, they might bet on people blaming Labour rather than the Conservatives - meaning the Tories then get in again in 4 to 5 years. Wait until December 2024, Labour will likely get in anyway (with a smaller majority) but one might hope that 2025 onwards will be a more positive time than the unrelenting grimness of the first half of the decade. Hence, Labour might end up riding such a wave of optimism and the Tories might be out for significantly longer. So ironically, an election soon might be better long-term for the Tories.

And it would be certainly better for the country. I suspect with Labour in command, the country will indeed move away from nationalist isolationism and seek to thaw relations with other countries. This will then become the new norm so even if we then get the Tories back in 2027, it will be a considerably more palatable version of a Tory government than the current lot.

 

[najaB]

Why would they vote themselves out of a job ?
They are going to hang on until the end...

As others have pointed out, if the boat has hit the iceberg it's probably better (from a purely self-interested view) to hand over command while people's feet are still dry than it is to go down with the ship.

 

[dosxuk]

Even if a GE was called immediately, the mess the Tory party have gotten into will give Labour a significant number of years of "it's not our fault, we're still trying to sort out the mess" excuses. I can see "this should never have been allowed to happen, but Boris was too busy partying to worry about it" being dragged out for years too.

The Tory party have now completely lost the support of the floating voters and are now well into eroding their base support. The senior members of the party are quite happy to tell reporters that they know they've lost the next election and probably the one after it. It feels like they're more worried about the predictions of them ending up with 7 seats, or giving up the opposition seats to the SNP than they are of losing an election right now. How bad could things get for them if Truss refuses to go and she continues to upset and worry everyone at her current wait? This is rapidly turning into a question of if the party will survive at all rather than how badly they will lose the next election.

 

[najaB]

Even if a GE was called immediately, the mess the Tory party have gotten into will give Labour a significant number of years of "it's not our fault, we're still trying to sort out the mess" excuses. I can see "this should never have been allowed to happen, but Boris was too busy partying to worry about it" being dragged out for years too.

Given that the Government is *still* trying to lay blame on the Labour government of twelve years plus ago, I have to agree!

 

[brad465]

The last 2 months, let alone the last 6 years, has been a bulldozer to the idea that FPTP is necessary for "stable Government".

 

[Sm5]

As others have pointed out, if the boat has hit the iceberg it's probably better (from a purely self-interested view) to hand over command while people's feet are still dry than it is to go down with the ship.

Given the announcement just now, I still maintain no election next year.
They just moved to save themselves a bit longer, as predicted.

Also underlining you cannot trust a word they say.

Everything offered, except the NI and stamp duty is gone, as is Energy support beyond April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63278993

Next April fuel bills will be back on the agenda in a politically dangerous way, no way will they go to vote then. Next winter will be the killer. The media will just redate last summers articles of fuel fear for next summer and repeat it all over again.

They could go GE now, lose and let labour deal with it ? But I think they’ll just ditch truss, hope the Ukraine war solves itself and if winter 2023 is ok they might survive 2024. imo it changes nothing in my previous thinking above, indeed the actions today are exactly what i’d expect… a lurch one way, and now a lurch back… but they are still on a mutinous boat in international seas that dont like really the UK right now, they are too self much in self preservation to walk the plank.

Recession for 18 months is now highly likely, collapse in property prices. The £ is still going to fall, its the global markets against it. I reckon as much as 2% on interest rates on November 3rd, and again in December, we have to be ahead of the dollar and pay more, as credibility has gone and wont come back until the next GE.

More taxes are going to come, VAT rise is to me an obvious one, it can be hidden in inflation which is going up anyway and may peak soon. We are going back to the 70’s..

Even if they gifted everyone with a solid gold effigy of Truss, they will still lose the next election, its must a matter of how big that loss will … She needs to go.

 

[brad465]

Recession for 18 months is now highly likely, collapse in property prices. The £ is still going to fall, its the global markets against it. I reckon as much as 2% on interest rates on November 3rd, and again in December, we have to be ahead of the dollar and pay more, as credibility has gone and wont come back until the next GE.
Even if they gifted everyone with a solid gold effigy of Truss, they will still lose the next election.

The BoE are spineless on interest rates, so I think the sort of increases you're describing will be optimistic (even though I agree they are necessary).

 

[GS250]

I always maintained the next election would be a good one for any government to lose.

Even if a GE was called immediately, the mess the Tory party have gotten into will give Labour a significant number of years of "it's not our fault, we're still trying to sort out the mess" excuses. I can see "this should never have been allowed to happen, but Boris was too busy partying to worry about it" being dragged out for years too.

The Tory party have now completely lost the support of the floating voters and are now well into eroding their base support. The senior members of the party are quite happy to tell reporters that they know they've lost the next election and probably the one after it. It feels like they're more worried about the predictions of them ending up with 7 seats, or giving up the opposition seats to the SNP than they are of losing an election right now. How bad could things get for them if Truss refuses to go and she continues to upset and worry everyone at her current wait? This is rapidly turning into a question of if the party will survive at all rather than how badly they will lose the next election.

We've been here before though. Whether you like it or not, the Tory party will survive. Just recall a few years ago Labour were apparently dead in the water. Now they are steaming ahead in the polls.

Come to think of it...have we got to the state where Britain, with so many cultures, expectations, mindsets etc is effectively becoming ungovernable? I guess on paper the solution to that is a centrist party or PR?

 

[najaB]

We've been here before though. Whether you like it or not, the Tory party will survive. Just recall a few years ago Labour were apparently dead in the water. Now they are steaming ahead in the polls.

Oh, there's zero doubt that the Conservative Party would survive, just a question of in what form. Keep in mind though, that Labour aren't ahead in the polls because of anything specific that they've done, their current position is as much due to the Conservative party deciding to eat itself as it is due to Labour's moves to stop their own self-destruction.

Come to think of it...have we got to the state where Britain, with so many cultures, expectations, mindsets etc is effectively becoming ungovernable? I guess on paper the solution to that is a centrist party or PR?

PR makes the most sense. Yes, we'll end up with coalition governments more often than not, but as you say UK society is more and more diverse so maybe that's not a bad thing.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Given the announcement just now, I still maintain no election next year.
They just moved to save themselves a bit longer, as predicted.

Also underlining you cannot trust a word they say.

Everything offered, except the NI and stamp duty is gone, as is Energy support beyond April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63278993

Next April fuel bills will be back on the agenda in a politically dangerous way, no way will they go to vote then. Next winter will be the killer. The media will just redate last summers articles of fuel fear for next summer and repeat it all over again.

They could go GE now, lose and let labour deal with it ? But I think they’ll just ditch truss, hope the Ukraine war solves itself and if winter 2023 is ok they might survive 2024. imo it changes nothing in my previous thinking above, indeed the actions today are exactly what i’d expect… a lurch one way, and now a lurch back… but they are still on a mutinous boat in international seas that dont like really the UK right now, they are too self much in self preservation to walk the plank.

Recession for 18 months is now highly likely, collapse in property prices. The £ is still going to fall, its the global markets against it. I reckon as much as 2% on interest rates on November 3rd, and again in December, we have to be ahead of the dollar and pay more, as credibility has gone and wont come back until the next GE.
More taxes are going to come, VAT rise is to me an obvious one. We are going back to the 70’s..

Even if they gifted everyone with a solid gold effigy of Truss, they will still lose the next election, its must a matter of how big that loss will … She needs to go.

Agree Tories will do everything they can to avoid a general election and whilst a few are breaking ranks that's just manoeuvring in advance of Truss either being removed or at best having to rebalance her cabinet with saner heads.

BoE is full of doves so won't go for a big rate rise also stability trumps inflation every time and they know full well the consequences of driving up mortgage rates will be repossessions 90's style again as well as a risk to banking system. Yes majority of people are on fixed rates but c100k/month are having to be re-mortgaged and homeowners are facing a near doubling of rates which adds hugely to their monthly outgoings.

 

[Sm5]

A form of PR maybe what we need. The parties alone in power cannot be trusted in fixed term parliaments… its too long to trust them to not become obsessed with an illusion of power rather than governance.

Liz Truss was always about power, Gordon Brown was no better… John Major too.

When the party changes a leader there should be a general election, its the only way to maintain confidence in society.

 

[dosxuk]

We've been here before though. Whether you like it or not, the Tory party will survive. Just recall a few years ago Labour were apparently dead in the water. Now they are steaming ahead in the polls.

The party will continue to exist. However, if the predictions of single figure seat counts were to come true then the Tory party of the future would be very different beast - I would expect at least one split in direction and several years of wandering in the political wilderness to try and re-establish what the party actually stands for and to attract sufficient political talent to actually be leadership material.

As for what I want, I strongly believe a single party state would be an even worse situation than current. If we're going to stick with FPTP we need strong government with an equally strong opposition. Labour are equally responsible for the current mess due to their poor performance, allowing the Tories to get away unchallenged with a string of some of the worst leadership this country has ever seen.

 

[MikeWM]

There's not really a lot of point in Truss being PM now, is there?

But I still have no idea how they replace her in a way that doesn't cause the party to effectively split in two. If they 'fix' the rules so that they can 'crown' Sunak (or Hunt or Mordaunt), those on the right of the party will make as much trouble for them as the 'wets' have for Truss - and crucially, the right have the backing of the membership, who to put it mildly are currently absolutely furious, and you can hardly blame them. They were given two options they didn't want (they largely wanted Badenoch) and, having picked one, are now being told 'well, you got it wrong, so we're going to go with the policies of the loser instead'. If nothing else, they're not going to be doing much enthusiastic campaigning come election time.

Also, changing PM again, and in a manner that is even less democratic than the previous change, would quite reasonably up the calls for a General Election, possibly to a point where they couldn't really be ignored. At some point this may even become an early constitutional crisis for the new King.

I think the only way they might be able to get out of this - and it isn't a solution I'd be happy with! - is to bring back Johnson. Though he'd be crazy to agree to do it at this point.

 

[Sm5]

Agree Tories will do everything they can to avoid a general election and whilst a few are breaking ranks that's just manoeuvring in advance of Truss either being removed or at best having to rebalance her cabinet with saner heads.

BoE is full of doves so won't go for a big rate rise also stability trumps inflation every time and they know full well the consequences of driving up mortgage rates will be repossessions 90's style again as well as a risk to banking system. Yes majority of people are on fixed rates but c100k/month are having to be re-mortgaged and homeowners are facing a near doubling of rates which adds hugely to their monthly outgoings.

Agreed, thats why the government did what it did today.. stability.

The BoE wont get inflation under control on its own. The $ is too strong. It wont get weaker medium turn, too many global factors are reaching to it for safety.
As the $ goes up, our inflation does, we buy too many goods in $, inc oil. As we have reduced international credibility, the only route back is to buy it with interest rates.

but the real route to lower inflation is to cut demand… its demand pushing up price. The government needs to take money out of circulation.

Falling growth, job cuts, tax rises will also help reduce inflation.

The country is at its 2008 moment all over again, the markets know this, the country needs to admit it. Taking money off the housing market will cut demand..

the banks are much more secure than 2008 so they will be pushed further… lloydsbank share price is down.. whilst hsbc is up.. which one has most exposure to the UK housing market ?

Disposable income will be much less disposable next year. We need to live like the Greeks for a while.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Agreed, thats why the government did what it did today.. stability.

The BoE wont get inflation under control on its own. The $ is too strong. It wont get weaker medium turn, too many global factors are reaching to it for safety.
As the $ goes up, our inflation does, we buy too many goods in $, inc oil. As we have reduced international credibility, the only route back is to buy it with interest rates.

but the real route to lower inflation is to cut demand… its demand pushing up price.
Falling growth, job cuts, tax rises will also help reduce inflation.

The country is at its 2008 moment all over again, the markets know this, the country needs to admit it. Taking money off the housing market will cut demand.. the banks are much more secure than 2008 so they will be pushed further.

Thing is demand isn't really increasing that much by recent standards but the input costs particularly energy are off the scale and thats not so easy to suppress demand at the scale required to reduce the price of it without creating a depression i would suggest

 

[Senex]

There's not really a lot of point in Truss being PM now, is there?

How can they accept her staying on as their leader when the platform on which she won (though let's remember that she never won over anything like a majority of the MPs) has been so effectively trashed over the last few days, having been judged a disaster by the international finance community? Or is it just a case of England still being very much a country where simply judge it good to kill an admiral from time to time to encourage the others? (Read Kwarteng for Byng.)

 

[dosxuk]

I think the only way they might be able to get out of this - and it isn't a solution I'd be happy with! - is to bring back Johnson. Though he'd be crazy to agree to do it at this point.

Bringing back Johnson might stabilise the party, but it would do nothing for the wider electorate. The swing in the poll figures towards Labour started under Johnson's leadership, the party got rid of him because he was now a vote-loser for the electorate, and he had lost the trust of the majority of MPs who were rightly fed up with being told to go out and tell people X was the case, only for Boris to come out the next day and say Y is actually the case.

I just can't see any chance of their polling reversing direction by admitting they haven't got a clue about what they are doing and coronating Boris back in charge, it would be seen as a desperate measure rather than a calculated, sensible one. They've basically reached the end of the populist leader road.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

How can they accept her staying on as their leader when the platform on which she won (though let's remember that she never won over anything like a majority of the MPs) has been so effectively trashed over the last few days, having been judged a disaster by the international finance community? Or is it just a case of England still being very much a country where simply judge it good to kill an admiral from time to time to encourage the others? (Read Kwarteng for Byng.)

She has got answer for it already see

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1581968194604257282


Its nothing to do with us its global economic conditions that did for us. What a nerve they've got no contrition, no apologies.

 

[GS250]

There's not really a lot of point in Truss being PM now, is there?


I think the only way they might be able to get out of this - and it isn't a solution I'd be happy with! - is to bring back Johnson. Though he'd be crazy to agree to do it at this point.

Agreed on both counts.

Boris may be flawed, careless and a bit of a rogue. However he is still their best chance of clinging onto power.

 

[RichJF]

I generally try to stay out of politics & avoid bringing it up in inevitable family/coworker conversations but the shower of successive Tory govt is wanting me to actually get into politics & do something, even if it is limited.

Perhaps form a party called "Sick of the Same-old, same-old?"

 

[MikeWM]

Bringing back Johnson might stabilise the party, but it would do nothing for the wider electorate. The swing in the poll figures towards Labour started under Johnson's leadership, the party got rid of him because he was now a vote-loser for the electorate, and he had lost the trust of the majority of MPs who were rightly fed up with being told to go out and tell people X was the case, only for Boris to come out the next day and say Y is actually the case.

I just can't see any chance of their polling reversing direction by admitting they haven't got a clue about what they are doing and coronating Boris back in charge, it would be seen as a desperate measure rather than a calculated, sensible one. They've basically reached the end of the populist leader road.

I'm not sure it will make much of a difference to polling - though it may in the 'red wall', especially if it comes with a message that Brexit is in danger - but it seems the best bet for the survival of the Tory party, at least in its current form. Truss is almost certainly going to go soon, one way or other, it seems unlikely the party or the country will put up with more months of a leadership election, but giving a 'coronation' to anyone but Johnson would be totally undemocratic and the membership would be incredibly angry (with justification, imo).

Although it seems the Tories are intent on self-destruction right now, so I fully expect them to do something entirely stupid like try to install Sunak or Hunt as PM without the consent of the party membership.

 

[Typhoon]

Agreed on both counts.

Boris may be flawed, careless and a bit of a rogue. However he is still their best chance of clinging onto power.

And his regular dives into the No.10 Dressing Up Box were entertaining.

At least there were opportunities to have a laugh amidst the general doom and gloom.

 

[Thirteen]

Isn't Boris' seat in Uxbridge looking vulnerable? I think it would just kicking the can down the road by having him back as PM when the next General Election does come.