Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[jfollows]

"Booted out of the way"? How could this happen?

House of Lords, I'd assume.

 

[BrianW]

"Booted out of the way"? How could this happen?

I know nothing about Mel Stride, who he is, or what he stands for, but AFAIK he hasn't done anything which could get him "booted" as an MP and replaced by Osborne.

Austerity Osborne would be much like Hunt. Would calm the markets but do nothing for the Tories' chances at the next election.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Oct 2022 ==


A curious irony that the seat swung Brexit when one of the main local employers is one which profits from (and creates jobs from) freedom of movement...

But also curious that it was more Brexity than the national average in general, given inner London to one side and the Home Counties to the other were not, and "leafy suburbia" (which I guess it is?) tends Remain in any case.

Mel Stride has been a 'thorn in the side' as Chair of the Treasury Select Committee and cricised the Truss/ Kwarteng 'Plan'; he's Conservative MP for Central Devon, adj Tiverton.

Re Brexit Uxbridge- you may be right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Heathrow and Boris are both 'complicating factors'. He was much 'safer' in Henley but wasn't seeking to be Mayor of Henley on Thames!

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Boris'll make more money, have more effect, and be able to spend more time with his family out of parliament!

 

[Busaholic]

Has JRM done a bunk? A player for Namibia in cricket's world cup in Australia is named Loftie-Eaton, surely a giveaway? If he comes onto the cricket field dressed in a pinstripe suit it'll be a clincher.

 

[david1212]

Absolutely agree. I can think of a number of reptilian terms I might use to describe him but to these I would add 'competent' and that is one thing in short supply right now.

I have used one ever since back in 2016 Gove initially backed Johnson for PM then dropped him to stand himself.

However, I suspect he is too intelligent (and self-centred) to commit to this government, which is holed below the waterline.

... my opinion after the above event.

The crew are desperately baling it out, together with a few reinforcements while the captain is locked in her cabin.

Many a true word spoken in jest.

May I just mention an aroma frequently associated with stables...

Everything is relative - keeping to the aroma analogy which is preferable
- that from a stable of healthy animals
- that from a stable of animals with ' the trots '

Safest' Conservative seats: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

That is interesting

One to add
219 Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg

Well said, Gloster!
I think Jeremy Hunt's appointment will calm the markets but next week will see concerted efforts to get rid of Liz Truss. ....

Likewise. The question is if she can withstand the pressure and be sufficiently convincing to carry on at least until the next crisis. As Harold Wilson quipped around 55-60 years ago ' A week is a long time in politics '.

 

[takno]

A curious irony that the seat swung Brexit when one of the main local employers is one which profits from (and creates jobs from) freedom of movement...

But also curious that it was more Brexity than the national average in general, given inner London to one side and the Home Counties to the other were not, and "leafy suburbia" (which I guess it is?) tends Remain in any case.

There was a belief in some areas that European FoM was happening at the expense of commonwealth FoM, which caused some slightly unexpected areas to have higher support for Brexit. I'm sure Suella is being quite successful disabusing everybody of that belief right now.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

I am hearing talk of possible spending cuts coming down the line but depending on the severity of those cuts and what is cut I cannot see that as being popular possibly politically toxic especially if benefits are targeted in which case would you see the possibility of civil unrest maybe along the lines of the poll tax riots? I know the British (at least compared to the French) are more tolerant in this respect but I would think there is a limit to that not advocating civil unrest by the way but will be nice to hear thoughts as I would not like to see another round of austerity?

Also does anyone see the possibility of a general election being held or forced maybe next year? I know legally it does not have to be held until the beginning of 2025 but I cannot see a winter election being good for the incumbent party with poor weather and heating bills to contend with, so I think May/June 2024 would be the latest realistic date. Is there any precedent for a ruling party that is so far behind in the polls to call an earlier than expected election was 1974 an example of this with Edward Heath? Just asking for thoughts as it would be nice for voters to have their say as was getting concerned about spending cuts that were not in the 2019 manifesto being implemented - when do you think the election will be?

 

[jfollows]

The question I think "the markets" will be asking and answering tomorrow is whether Liz Truss is in charge in name only, in which case Jeremy Hunt can be trusted to get on with the job, or if Lis Truss remains an impediment to change. Some articles imply that not enough has been done to convince them that her plans have been torn up for good. But at the end of the day we'll see what happens tomorrow I guess. I think the difference is only between Liz Truss going quickly or slowly.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Oct 2022 ==

Also does anyone see the possibility of a general election being held or forced maybe next year? I know legally it does not have to be held until the beginning of 2025 but I cannot see a winter election being good for the incumbent party with poor weather and heating bills to contend with, so I think May/June 2024 would be the latest realistic date. Is there any precedent for a ruling party that is so far behind in the polls to call an earlier than expected election was 1974 an example of this with Edward Heath? Just asking for thoughts as it would be nice for voters to have their say as was getting concerned about spending cuts that were not in the 2019 manifesto being implemented - when do you think the election will be?

I think the Conservatives will hold on for as long as possible, they have a big majority and a lot of them will lose their jobs if there's an election, they will seek to minimise the number of job losses because today they would be huge in number but perhaps in a year's time they will be fewer?
I'm not convinced by this idea of a winter election being a bad idea to be shunned. For sure, all other things being equal, have an election in the summer. But when you're at the back end of a dead government, hold on for as long as you possibly can because being out of power is worse than being minister for paper clips.

 

[Howardh]

So there are plots, not so much behind her back but right in front of Truss's face, to remove her. How would Hunt feel, if Sunak became PM then wouldn't he want his own wo/man there? If so who would that be, Javed??

Oh I do love watching the Tories implode on themselves.

 

[LowLevel]

So there are plots, not so much behind her back but right in front of Truss's face, to remove her. How would Hunt feel, if Sunak became PM then wouldn't he want his own wo/man there? If so who would that be, Javed??

Oh I do love watching the Tories implode on themselves.

I'm less keen, because they're still going to have a grab at my civil liberties and make my life worse until whatever point they shuffle off.

 

[birchesgreen]

She will be gone on Monday. Gove will be parachuted in as caretaker leader. The Tories will go on to win a narrow victory in 2 years time.

This week's lottery numbers will be...

 

[Sorcerer]

Personally, I just find it so odd that the Tories are already allegedly plotting to remove Liz Truss as leader. If they genuinely don't believe that she is fit for the job then I'm lead to question why she was ever elected in the first place. She is already very much a symptom of Boris Johnson's legacy because he already broke down the barriers of failure with the office of Prime Minister, and she would've probably never gotten into office herself if not for him doing that. I just can't understand the logic to it, but then maybe I shouldn't expect logic from a Conservative Party that has pretty much ran out of steam and ideas after 12 years in power and can no longer blame anyone else for the country's failings.

 

[jfollows]

An act of euthanasia (https://www.theguardian.com/comment...s-hasnt-saved-own-skin-sacking-kwasi-kwarteng):

The ObserverLiz Truss

Liz Truss hasn’t saved her own skin by making a sacrifice of Kwasi Kwarteng

Andrew Rawnsley

Her premiership is finished. Tory MPs now have to decide how to finish her off

Sun 16 Oct 2022 08.30 BST

If you are in politics and want a friend, get a dog. When Liz Truss was making her fateful advance on Downing Street, her friendship with Kwasi Kwarteng was touted as the foundation stone and guarantee of the successful programme they would deliver. Close, extremely close, both politically and personally, they certainly were. Give these passionate allies and ideological bedfellows the two most powerful jobs in Britain and what could possibly go wrong?

Absolutely everything. They are a textbook example of why friendship can be a terrible basis for relationships at the top of government, especially when it is fused in a mutual intoxication with recklessly utopian theories and a contempt for the opinions of anyone outside a little echo chamber occupied by a narrow sect of believers. The result was the maxi-disaster of the mini-budget that has inflicted so much financial carnage on Britain and reputational ruin on the Conservative party.

It is barely more than three weeks since we watched Mr Kwarteng swagger up to the dispatch box to claim that he possessed a miraculous concoction to rejuvenate Britain while Ms Truss sat beside him jeering and gurning at the many critics who forecast that a borrowing binge to pay for tax cuts would end in bitter tears. The fabled elixir duly transpired to be snake oil laced with poison. The markets gagged and the public were horrified. Now she has been impelled to sacrifice him in a grim gambit to save herself. Greater love hath no woman for the premiership than to lay down the life of her bosom friend in an attempt to save her own skin.

In the view of one former Tory cabinet minister: 'If [Kwarteng] turns on her, he can destroy her'

This was more an act of feverish desperation than one of cool calculation. I guess she thinks that firing him might buy her a bit more time at Number 10, but time to do what exactly except wait for Conservative MPs to organise her removal? She sank even further down in her party’s already low estimation during the excruciating news conference she gave after jettisoning both her chancellor and another chunk of their disintegrating plan. Despite this latest humiliating reverse, she offered neither acknowledgment of nor contrition for the havoc her government has unleashed. She expressed herself “incredibly sorry” to “lose” Mr Kwarteng as if someone else had chucked him under the bus. She was simply in denial for a lot of the brief time she stood at the podium, insisting that the “mission remains” when we can all see that the rocket has blown up on the launchpad.

Her hope must be that overboarding her old friend draws a line under the most catastrophic start to a modern premiership, but that would require everyone to believe he was solely culpable for what everyone knows was a crazy gamble that they jointly conceived and promoted. Mr Kwarteng was sacked not because he failed to deliver what Ms Truss expected. He was fired because he did exactly what she wanted him to do and it then exploded in their faces. His resignation letter had a tone that was surprisingly forgiving, but we will see how the former chancellor feels after he has had a few days to brood on being dispatched so brutally after just 38 days in post. That makes him the second briefest chancellor after Iain Macleod in the 1970s and he had the excuse that he died of a heart attack. Mr Kwarteng’s credibility is in shreds, but he will have a large and enthusiastic audience if he decides to repay Ms Truss in the same coin. In the view of one former Tory cabinet minister: “If he turns on her, he can destroy her.”

It is another sign of how enfeebled the prime minister has become that she offered the chancellorship to Jeremy Hunt, the type of experienced, centrist Tory she has previously and repeatedly scorned as a slave to “abacus economics” and “Treasury orthodoxy”. Once Mr Hunt had failed in his own bid to become Tory leader, he gave his support to Rishi Sunak whose warnings to his party about the perils of a Truss premiership have been so comprehensively vindicated. Mr Hunt’s appointment is a belated recognition – far too belated to revise opinions of Ms Truss among Tory MPs – that she ought to have reached out to other factions of her party when she first became prime minister.

Mr Hunt is the fourth – fourth! – Tory chancellor in the space of just four months. Caretaker managers of relegation zone football clubs enjoy greater life expectancy. He must draw up a convincing new fiscal plan and has very little time to do it. Scheduled to be unveiled at the end of the month, this will be a make-or-break moment for the new chancellor, for Ms Truss, if she manages to stagger on that far and for what remains of the Tory party’s reputation as a steward of the economy. Mr Hunt is going to have to display a touch of genius if he is to come up with a formula that restores faith in Britain in debt and currency markets, ameliorates the discontent of the public or at least prevents it from getting any more severe, and soothes the furies of Tory MPs.

The prime minister went for the easiest of the U-turns available to her when she ditched her pledge to hold down corporation tax. Most companies will happily pay more to the exchequer if that calms volatility in the markets. There is still a huge hole in the government’s finances that the new chancellor is somehow going to have to fill. To make the sums add up, he will have to abandon more of Ms Truss’s unfunded tax cuts or outline real-terms reductions in public spending or, most likely, propose a combination of both. Having just sacked one chancellor, her position is far too precarious to risk losing another one. That gives Mr Hunt a huge amount of potential clout. If he wants to pursue a strategy that is more aligned with that proposed by Mr Sunak during the leadership contest, then the prime minister will not be able to resist him. One former Tory cabinet minister remarks: “If Jeremy goes to her and says, ‘Sorry, we’re going to have to postpone the 1p income tax cut’, she won’t be able to say ‘no’.” A longstanding ally of Mr Hunt thinks: “He’s in a very powerful position. She’s going to have to do what the Treasury says. I don’t think she’s got any choice.” For connoisseurs of political ironies, this is one to savour. Ms Truss is now trussed. She is the prisoner of the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, the very institutions she used to deride as “bean counters”.

Even the tiny minority who wanted her to be prime minister are asking: what is the point of her now?

Which has everyone, even the tiny minority who wanted her to be prime minister, asking: what is the point of her now? Her defining economic project has been rejected by markets, the public and her own MPs and she is being forced to junk its central planks. Does she look like an election winner? Hardly. The polls say the Tory party faces electoral annihilation. Does she have a mandate to be in Number 10 from the public? That’s a negative and forgetting this was one of her many mistakes. Does she even have a mandate from the Tory activists who put her there? Not any more, not now that she has been forced to mince her prospectus because contact with market and political realities have exposed the promises she made as the fairytales they always were. Does she enjoy the confidence of Tory MPs? Clearly not. The majority never wanted her and an even fiercer anger is felt among the minority who did because they liked her “pro-growth”, low-tax, small-state agenda. This group on the right are feeling betrayed because their lifetime convictions have been discredited by her calamitous attempt to put them into practice.

Even at his grisly end, Boris Johnson still had a constituency among Conservative MPs made up of those who thought they were better off keeping him in Number 10. There is no remaining constituency for Ms Truss. If Tory MPs possessed a wand they could wave to make her vanish, they’d instantly use it.

They don’t have a magical way out of their dilemmas. So there will now be a lot of agonised scheming about how to rid themselves of a zombie prime minister without making the Tory party look even more absurd or creating irresistible pressure for a general election. I think she’s finished. The outstanding question is how they will finish her off. It won’t be a regicide.

It will be an act of euthanasia.

 

[JamesT]

Personally, I just find it so odd that the Tories are already allegedly plotting to remove Liz Truss as leader. If they genuinely don't believe that she is fit for the job then I'm lead to question why she was ever elected in the first place. She is already very much a symptom of Boris Johnson's legacy because he already broke down the barriers of failure with the office of Prime Minister, and she would've probably never gotten into office herself if not for him doing that. I just can't understand the logic to it, but then maybe I shouldn't expect logic from a Conservative Party that has pretty much ran out of steam and ideas after 12 years in power and can no longer blame anyone else for the country's failings.

I think it says most about the disconnect between the parliamentary party and the wider party. Remember the majority of the MPs preferred Rishi Sunak. I don’t think I’ve seen any MPs saying they voted for Liz and now regret it.

 

[davetheguard]

Personally, I just find it so odd that the Tories are already allegedly plotting to remove Liz Truss as leader. If they genuinely don't believe that she is fit for the job then I'm lead to question why she was ever elected in the first place.

I think it says most about the disconnect between the parliamentary party and the wider party.

The M.P.s don't think she's suitable and never did. She was given the P.M.'s job by the votes of the Conservative Party members.

 

[david1212]

Personally, I just find it so odd that the Tories are already allegedly plotting to remove Liz Truss as leader. If they genuinely don't believe that she is fit for the job then I'm lead to question why she was ever elected in the first place. She is already very much a symptom of Boris Johnson's legacy because he already broke down the barriers of failure with the office of Prime Minister, and she would've probably never gotten into office herself if not for him doing that. I just can't understand the logic to it, but then maybe I shouldn't expect logic from a Conservative Party that has pretty much ran out of steam and ideas after 12 years in power and can no longer blame anyone else for the country's failings.

I think it says most about the disconnect between the parliamentary party and the wider party. Remember the majority of the MPs preferred Rishi Sunak. I don’t think I’ve seen any MPs saying they voted for Liz and now regret it.

The M.P.s don't think she's suitable and never did. She was given the P.M.'s job by the votes of the Conservative Party members.

While more of the party members voted for Truss than Sunak it was the M.P.'s who decided the members had these two to choose between. The M.P.'s could have given the members say Mordaunt and Sunak.

 

[317 forever]

The M.P.s don't think she's suitable and never did. She was given the P.M.'s job by the votes of the Conservative Party members.

Yes, but enabled by 113 Conservative MPs in the first place, some of whom only after Tom Tugenhat and Kemi Badenoch were voted out of earlier rounds.

 

[Yew]

We have that in Rolls-Royce. What they don't have is orders.

An SMR (of which none have been built) or Submarine PWR is a very different beast to a large scale power generation reactor. And RR's output is calibrated to how often the Navy needs a new

There was a belief in some areas that European FoM was happening at the expense of commonwealth FoM, which caused some slightly unexpected areas to have higher support for Brexit. I'm sure Suella is being quite successful disabusing everybody of that belief right now.

Indeed, the pivot towards Europe did come shortly after the last days of the empire, I don't think many politicians said it outright; but on some quarters it was definitely believed that we would see some form of Commonwealth Freedom of Movement.

 

[nw1]

Also does anyone see the possibility of a general election being held or forced maybe next year? I know legally it does not have to be held until the beginning of 2025 but I cannot see a winter election being good for the incumbent party with poor weather and heating bills to contend with, so I think May/June 2024 would be the latest realistic date. Is there any precedent for a ruling party that is so far behind in the polls to call an earlier than expected election was 1974 an example of this with Edward Heath? Just asking for thoughts as it would be nice for voters to have their say as was getting concerned about spending cuts that were not in the 2019 manifesto being implemented - when do you think the election will be?

Opinions differ a lot on this. Personally I think the current situation is unprecedented and depending on how disastrous Truss is from now on, there could be a lot of pressure from the public and media for one if things don't improve. This would mean spring or early summer next year if so; I doubt they'd hold one while we're struggling with the cost of living crisis over the winter.

If not, then I would suggest spring or early summer 2024 as you say. Winter elections - particularly December or January - would be an absolute disaster for campaigning. To campaign effectively you need decent amounts of daylight, in particular after normal working hours, and a good chance of good weather. December and January have neither. Obviously we had the 2019 election but that was a bit of a special case - basically Boris' personal vanity project which had to be done then to allow him to achieve the "success" (hmmm) of implementing Brexit.

Plus also, people will not be in the best of moods in mid-winter, which will scarcely help the incumbents. Hold an election in May with the flowers out and the sun maybe shining, people might be more forgiving due to it being arguably the best and most positive time of the year.

 

[philosopher]

If not, then I would suggest spring or early summer 2024 as you say. Winter elections - particularly December or January - would be an absolute disaster for campaigning. To campaign effectively you need decent amounts of daylight, in particular after normal working hours, and a good chance of good weather. December and January have neither. Obviously we had the 2019 election but that was a bit of a special case - basically Boris' personal vanity project which had to be done then to allow him to achieve the "success" (hmmm) of implementing Brexit.

Plus also, people will not be in the best of moods in mid-winter, which will scarcely help the incumbents. Hold an election in May with the flowers out and the sun maybe shining, people might be more forgiving due to it being arguably the best and most positive time of the year.

A winter election does have the risk of severe weather such as large windstorm like storm Eunice that happened this February or heavy snowfall. Such weather would I suspect seriously impact turnout and would create a large number of logistical and safety issues with the election.

 

[SynthD]

I felt like white people were told brexit would reduce the number of non white people coming in, and non white people were told that if they had relatives in the right (Commonwealth?) countries it would be easier for them to come.

Sunak’s seat used to be higher up in the safe seats list, I think it was second in the party when Ian Duncan Smith quit and somehow Sunak was gifted it.

Will the number of MPs who lose seats matter much to the type of people who want to lead the party in the next few years? I suspect Truss, etc would jump on the first good opportunity, as May did. I hope for a greater misjudgement.

 

[DelayRepay]

Sunak’s seat used to be higher up in the safe seats list, I think it was second in the party when Ian Duncan Smith quit and somehow Sunak was gifted it.

I think you're getting your ex-tory leaders muddled up. William Hague was the MP for Richmond before Sunak.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The M.P.s don't think she's suitable and never did. She was given the P.M.'s job by the votes of the Conservative Party members.

They deserve what they got but need to honour the system as it was a democratic choice otherwise this starts sounding like Trump saying the election was stolen from us. Be far better to change out half the cabinet and get some big hitters back in there who can properly run the country.

 

[najaB]

An SMR (of which none have been built) or Submarine PWR is a very different beast to a large scale power generation reactor.

Yes, I know this. Rolls Royce want to build SMRs but nobody is ordering them. There is zero reason why the next generation of UK nuclear has to be large 3.2GWe units.

 

[JamesT]

Yes, I know this. Rolls Royce want to build SMRs but nobody is ordering them. There is zero reason why the next generation of UK nuclear has to be large 3.2Gwe units.

The SMR design has only started the regulatory process for approval this year. EPR took 5 years to get through that (2007-2012). I’m not clear on when it was decided that EPR would be used for HPC, it would be a ‘courageous decision’ to start ordering before that process had completed.

 

[AM9]

SMR, EPR, HPC?, In a thread of over 1200 posts, these abbreviations need to be confirmed more than once, (if indeed they have all been confirmed yet), please.

 

[birchesgreen]

I felt like white people were told brexit would reduce the number of non white people coming in, and non white people were told that if they had relatives in the right (Commonwealth?) countries it would be easier for them to come.

I don't know if they were specifically told that (by mainstream sources anyway) but many people assumed/hoped Brexit would let them indulge their prejudices, helped by vague promises which could be taken many ways. That's one reason why it's all gone so sour, everyone had a different Brexit outcome they wanted and none of them got it.

 

[deltic]

Opinions differ a lot on this. Personally I think the current situation is unprecedented and depending on how disastrous Truss is from now on, there could be a lot of pressure from the public and media for one if things don't improve. This would mean spring or early summer next year if so; I doubt they'd hold one while we're struggling with the cost of living crisis over the winter.

If not, then I would suggest spring or early summer 2024 as you say. Winter elections - particularly December or January - would be an absolute disaster for campaigning. To campaign effectively you need decent amounts of daylight, in particular after normal working hours, and a good chance of good weather. December and January have neither. Obviously we had the 2019 election but that was a bit of a special case - basically Boris' personal vanity project which had to be done then to allow him to achieve the "success" (hmmm) of implementing Brexit.

Plus also, people will not be in the best of moods in mid-winter, which will scarcely help the incumbents. Hold an election in May with the flowers out and the sun maybe shining, people might be more forgiving due to it being arguably the best and most positive time of the year.

No PM will take any notice of the public or press clamoring for a general election they know they are going to get wiped out in.

Winter elections will not be a disaster for campaigning, as we saw in 2019. As many people on this forum note people don't go round knocking on doors like they used to unless you live in the 50 most marginal seats. Its all done via the media, social or mainstream or 'phone. There is no evidence in the UK that the weather impacts election turnouts, especially as a much higher percentage now vote postally.

 

[JamesT]

SMR, EPR, HPC?, In a thread of over 1200 posts, these abbreviations need to be confirmed more than once, (if indeed they have all been confirmed yet), please.

Small Modular Reactor, EPR is the name of the reactor design EDF are building (it no longer has an expansion of the abbreviation), Hinkley Point C.

 

[takno]

No PM will take any notice of the public or press clamoring for a general election they know they are going to get wiped out in.

Winter elections will not be a disaster for campaigning, as we saw in 2019. As many people on this forum note people don't go round knocking on doors like they used to unless you live in the 50 most marginal seats. Its all done via the media, social or mainstream or 'phone. There is no evidence in the UK that the weather impacts election turnouts, especially as a much higher percentage now vote postally.

I'm not sure where you get the idea that all canvassing is restricted to a few seats now. I'd there are a couple of hundred seats which are barely contested at all, and a couple of hundred more where most parties won't get out to all doors, although they will often have a target of doing them all at least once. The remaining third will still get an effective canvas from several parties, unless it's biting cold and dark. Even where there is no canvas there is typically leaflet distribution via volunteers which happens much less effectively in winter.

It's fair to say that urban areas are better covered than very suburban or rural areas, but then people with long drives who live a mile from their nearest neighbour take 10x as long to canvas but still only get one vote.

 

[yorksrob]

They deserve what they got but need to honour the system as it was a democratic choice otherwise this starts sounding like Trump saying the election was stolen from us. Be far better to change out half the cabinet and get some big hitters back in there who can properly run the country.

I think a lot of people are missing the point.

It matters not a jot to the workings of national democracy how a party elects its leader. If the party membership gets it wrong and the parliamentary party steps in, it doesn't make the executive any less democratically legitimate.

The only vote which lends legitimacy to a government or its executive is the general election