Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[dgl]

Nuclear is a case in point. We need new nuclear but our agency and ability to develop it has been flogged off.

Although Westinghouse (who's nuclear business the UKAEA owned and sold off) was a big reason for Toshiba's financial problems and they ended up ditching it.

 

[yorksrob]

Although Westinghouse (who's nuclear business the UKAEA owned and sold off) was a big reason for Toshiba's financial problems and they ended up ditching it.

Who cares.

What we need is the domestic ability to build new/renew ones.

 

[Busaholic]

He made a speech that effectively ended Thatcher's political career which after Healey commented "Like being savaged by a dead sheep" has frequently been referred to as Howe's dead cat event.

Sorry, Healey's 'dead sheep' remark was made in 1978 when Healey was in the Labour government and Howe was in opposition i.e. well before Thatcher's 1979 election victory and her appointment of Howe as Chancellor.

 

[najaB]

What we need is the domestic ability to build new/renew ones.

We have that in Rolls-Royce. What they don't have is orders.

 

[yorksrob]

We have that in Rolls-Royce. What they don't have is orders.

Then we need to be using them to build the stuff we need, instead of buying abroad.

 

[david1212]

That is, rather depressingly, where we've got to. Somebody who can stabilise the ship and defer the country's impending collapse for another 20 years or so genuinely seems like progress.

I'm not convinced that Hunt has the ability to do much more than calm the markets a bit though. He's not exactly charismatic, and it sounds like his personal finances are perhaps a little... interesting. Politically he's a rather depressing authoritarian and economic right-winger, who has only got a reputation for being on the moderate wing of the party because he dared to say that Brexit was a bit of a stupid move.

If he was the PM he'd still be saddled with a pretty awful bunch to build a cabinet from, and he's at absolute best only a match for Starmer. If he spends any significant amount of time as the spend-cutting chancellor in the current bin-scraping cabinet of idiots then he'll be toxic forever

The same applies to whoever is PM. Even after a couple of general elections will this change?

Truss can still claw her way back, but she's not going to do it with the current cabinet. In her position, while she won't have the support to do it, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to simply address the nation and say "Look, I got it wrong" and announce a new move to the centre ground. Sign a quick deal with the EU to end all the petty squabbling, rejoin the Customs Union with some reasonable FoM allowances (not complete FoM, but maybe something like 'working and retired people can move freely as long as they have a job offer or have enough funds'), do the right thing financially, and maybe she'd have a chance at a hung parliament.

But keeping the cancer that is Rees-Mogg among others around? Forget it.

While as agreed in previous posts before the chain of changes following the resignations from the cabinet that finally ended Johnson's time as PM as a group the cabinet was not great at least it was stable.

The fact that some did not want to serve under Truss says a lot but with so many new faces and shuffling most those that remained to a different role IMO she at best was making things unnecessarily hard and at worst creating trouble. As it has turned out the latter.

Although we should really be careful what we wish for, Michael Gove might come back yet again!

Please no.

 

[yorksrob]

He might not be flavour of the month, but Michael Gove does seem to be one of the Tories few options who are generally capable.

 

[Gloster]

The Daily Express headline is Revealed: Secret Plot to Oust PM. So secret that it is only known to a hundred MPs and the rest of the country.

It also ‘reveals’ that Kwarteng was ‘bounced’into the tax cuts by Truss. The infighting continues. Come on in: the blood’s lovely!

 

[Tracked]

Truss can still claw her way back, but she's not going to do it with the current cabinet.

After seeing her few appearances since the "fiscal event" I'm not sure she's capable of that, I'm not sure if her leadership will last longer than the campaign to vote her in, but then either keeping her, or making a fresh start with new faces and hoping voters forget, probably wouldn't be successful.

If they do get another woman in I'd just hope the right wing media don't dub her the "New Thatcher" again and let them be judged on their own personality, assuming - unlike the last 2 New Thatchers - that they have one ...

 

[Typhoon]

He might not be flavour of the month, but Michael Gove does seem to be one of the Tories few options who are generally capable.

Absolutely agree. I can think of a number of reptilian terms I might use to describe him but to these I would add 'competent' and that is one thing in short supply right now.

However, I suspect he is too intelligent (and self-centred) to commit to this government, which is holed below the waterline. The crew are desperately baling it out, together with a few reinforcements while the captain is locked in her cabin.

 

[DelayRepay]

He might not be flavour of the month, but Michael Gove does seem to be one of the Tories few options who are generally capable.

Did you see his tweets from Friday?

This morning, I was with Cllr Edward Hawkins at Heather Ridge Arcade. It was good to see work being done on trip hazards, and the job will be completed early next month. Edward also updated me on progress on the Ravenscote crossing campaign - all should be fixed by mid November

Followed by

Good to talk to Surrey Heath headteachers today - providing strong leadership for the next generation. We discussed funding pressures, support for the vulnerable and recruitment and retention.

The first appeared about ten minutes before the Kwarteng's sacking was announced. The second appeared shortly after Truss' press conference.

Were these real reports about Gove's day out in his constituency, or more cryptic messages?!

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely agree. I can think of a number of reptilian terms I might use to describe him but to these I would add 'competent' and that is one thing in short supply right now.

However, I suspect he is too intelligent (and self-centred) to commit to this government, which is holed below the waterline. The crew are desperately baling it out, together with a few reinforcements while the captain is locked in her cabin.

That's a good analogy.

Did you see his tweets from Friday?


Followed by



The first appeared about ten minutes before the Kwarteng's sacking was announced. The second appeared shortly after Truss' press conference.

Were these real reports about Gove's day out in his constituency, or more cryptic messages?!

One would like to think cryptic messages - but I expect constituency leg work !

 

[Acfb]

I can see Truss surviving to the coronation or even September 2023 (especially if Hunt can provide a small amount of stability and reduce the Labour lead to ~15%) although I have no idea how the Conservative Party will act from now on.

I can only really see someone like Wallace or even Cleverly replacing Truss.

 

[317 forever]

I had seen how Labour had made less headway in the local elections and the Wakefield by-election than in the Dudley West by-election and 1995 local elections.

However, since then we have had the Fiscal Statement, equivalent to Black Wednesday, and the change of Chancellor, equivalent to Ken Clarke having succeeded Norman Lamont.

Where we differ from the 90s is that we have a less charismatic Labour leader. 2024 is therefore less likely to be a Labour landslide (hindered further by the Labour seats lost to the SNP that will probably not return to Labour), but still a Labour victory. This means we will probably have more Tory seats after 2024 than 1997, and less disarray but more choice of effective new Tory leader. Staggering as the polls look, I doubt we will get more than 2 full terms of a Labour government.

 

[Acfb]

I had seen how Labour had made less headway in the local elections and the Wakefield by-election than in the Dudley West by-election and 1995 local elections.

However, since then we have had the Fiscal Statement, equivalent to Black Wednesday, and the change of Chancellor, equivalent to Ken Clarke having succeeded Norman Lamont.

Where we differ from the 90s is that we have a less charismatic Labour leader. 2024 is therefore less likely to be a Labour landslide (hindered further by the Labour seats lost to the SNP that will probably not return to Labour), but still a Labour victory. This means we will probably have more Tory seats after 2024 than 1997, and less disarray but more choice of effective new Tory leader. Staggering as the polls look, I doubt we will get more than 2 full terms of a Labour government.

It's a shame about the lack of by elections TBH. The only one coming up is West Lancashire which will be a boring Labour hold. There were a lot more in the 90s. A by election in somewhere like Selby and Ainsty would be a proper test for Labour.

Local by elections are hard to read, Labour has generally been doing well in the northern red wall in places like county Durham including Hartlepool.

Although the Tories have gained a few by local elections from Labour in Coventry, Bolton and Leicester (even if they can put down to weird local factors).

 

[317 forever]

It's a shame about the lack of by elections TBH. The only one coming up is West Lancashire which will be a boring Labour hold. There were a lot more in the 90s. A by election in somewhere like Selby and Ainsty would be a proper test for Labour.

Local by elections are hard to read, Labour has generally been doing well in the northern red wall in places like county Durham including Hartlepool.

Although the Tories have gained a few by local elections from Labour in Coventry, Bolton and Leicester (even if they can put down to weird local factors).

Admittedly I was thinking about the annual round of local elections in May.

As regards local by-elections, Leicester I can understand. While there may have been local factors at play in each case you mention, these do suggest that the Labour lead in the polls is exaggerated compared to how General Election votes would pan out.

 

[nw1]

Admittedly I was thinking about the annual round of local elections in May.

As regards local by-elections, Leicester I can understand. While there may have been local factors at play in each case you mention, these do suggest that the Labour lead in the polls is exaggerated compared to how General Election votes would pan out.

My criterion for "likely Labour seat" are the "red" seats on Electoral Calculus, which seem to be equivalent to around a 15+% majority for Labour:

Dynamic Map

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

The "pink" seats are very optimistic Labour gains and likely to be Con holds, but anything with 15+% majority I think will be a Labour gain.

This still means, for example, Labour winning both Bournemouth seats and the entire Red Wall becoming red again, but places like Wokingham and rural parts of Northern England are I think a pipe-dream.

Echoing comments about Hartlepool, supposedly the poster-child of Johnson conservatism, the predicted result isn't even close for the Tories.

 

[takno]

Where we differ from the 90s is that we have a less charismatic Labour leader. 2024 is therefore less likely to be a Labour landslide (hindered further by the Labour seats lost to the SNP that will probably not return to Labour), but still a Labour victory. This means we will probably have more Tory seats after 2024 than 1997, and less disarray but more choice of effective new Tory leader. Staggering as the polls look, I doubt we will get more than 2 full terms of a Labour government.

As it stands we have a somewhat less charismatic labour leader, who is also rather less likely to join an unpopular war halfway through his second term, and a massively less capable Tory prime minister, backed by a generally far less capable party.

Sure the SNP will still win most seats in Scotland, and that will dent Labour's majority by perhaps as much as 30, but that doesn't currently seem likely to open up any seats for the Tories in Scotland.

Moreover, the idea that slightly more Tory MPs opens up the field for more credible future leaders and cabinet members depends on less hapless candidates being selected. Unfortunately the ideological cleansing over Brexit has left all levels of the party utterly bereft of any sense or intelligence.

I'm not going to predict the future, to the point where I won't even predict an overall Labour majority at the next election. I don't think there's any reason at all for the Tories to imagine this is less bad than 1995 though

 

[317 forever]

My criterion for "likely Labour seat" are the "red" seats on Electoral Calculus, which seem to be equivalent to around a 15+% majority for Labour:

Dynamic Map

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

The "pink" seats are very optimistic Labour gains and likely to be Con holds, but anything red I think will be a Labour gain.

This still means, for example, Labour winning both Bournemouth seats and the entire Red Wall becoming red again, but places like Wokingham and rural parts of Northern England are I think a pipe-dream.

A good diagram. I thought Wokingham a potential Lib Dem gain. It is clear Remain territory too.

 

[nw1]

A good diagram. I thought Wokingham a potential Lib Dem gain. It is clear Remain territory too.

Indeed.

The site allows you to input your own predictions. Some interesting results based on a vote share prediction of Con 30%, Lab 40% (plus Lib Dem 12%), which I think is realistic if we have to wait until 2024. This produces a Labour majority of 20. There are two high-profile casualties, one is Grant Shapps, and the other is a certain ex-PM. I somehow doubt he'll be contesting his north-west London seat next time though...

 

[Acfb]

............

 

[317 forever]

Indeed.

The site allows you to input your own predictions. Some interesting results based on a vote share prediction of Con 30%, Lab 40% (plus Lib Dem 12%), which I think is realistic if we have to wait until 2024. This produces a Labour majority of 20. There are two high-profile casualties, one is Grant Shapps, and the other is a certain ex-PM. I somehow doubt he'll be contesting his north-west London seat next time though...

Admittedly Grant Shapps won his seat from Labour in 2005. So it is the kind of seat that is vulnerable in a good year for Labour.

Uxbridge is a bit more of a surprise, as the Tories hung on in 1997, albeit only with a 3 figure majority, and it is not even Remain territory.

 

[nw1]

Admittedly Grant Shapps won his seat from Labour in 2005. So it is the kind of seat that is vulnerable in a good year for Labour.

Uxbridge is a bit more of a surprise, as the Tories hung on in 1997, albeit only with a 3 figure majority, and it is not even Remain territory.

Surprised Uxbridge wouldn't be Remain territory, though I have to admit I've never been to the place.

My perception of it is affluent-ish but fairly liberal suburbia. I may be wrong though.

But Johnson's majority in 2019 wasn't immense, suggesting it's vulnerable. It's clearly not stereotypical Johnsonist territory, even though he's their MP.

 

[Lost property]

The same applies to whoever is PM. Even after a couple of general elections will this change?



While as agreed in previous posts before the chain of changes following the resignations from the cabinet that finally ended Johnson's time as PM as a group the cabinet was not great at least it was stable.

The fact that some did not want to serve under Truss says a lot but with so many new faces and shuffling most those that remained to a different role IMO she at best was making things unnecessarily hard and at worst creating trouble. As it has turned out the latter.



Please no.

May I just mention an aroma frequently associated with stables...

 

[yorksrob]

My criterion for "likely Labour seat" are the "red" seats on Electoral Calculus, which seem to be equivalent to around a 15+% majority for Labour:

Dynamic Map

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

The "pink" seats are very optimistic Labour gains and likely to be Con holds, but anything with 15+% majority I think will be a Labour gain.

This still means, for example, Labour winning both Bournemouth seats and the entire Red Wall becoming red again, but places like Wokingham and rural parts of Northern England are I think a pipe-dream.

Echoing comments about Hartlepool, supposedly the poster-child of Johnson conservatism, the predicted result isn't even close for the Tories.

Indeed, but then "Trussonomics" isn't Johnson conservatism.

 

[jfollows]

Surprised Uxbridge wouldn't be Remain territory, though I have to admit I've never been to the place.

It has a nice cricket ground where Middlesex (used to?) play away from home.

 

[Gloster]

It has a nice cricket ground where Middlesex (used to?) play away from home.

Like the town’s MP, a certain B.Johnson, who had a reputation for playing away from home.

 

[BrianW]

Surprised Uxbridge wouldn't be Remain territory, though I have to admit I've never been to the place.

My perception of it is affluent-ish but fairly liberal suburbia. I may be wrong though.

But Johnson's majority in 2019 wasn't immense, suggesting it's vulnerable. It's clearly not stereotypical Johnsonist territory, even though he's their MP.

The 'Uxbridge & South Ruislip' parliamentary constituency is a 'slice' across the London Borough of Hillingdon. For a long while the seat to the south Hayes & Harlington (John McDonnell since 1997) has been Labour and that to the north (Ruislip and Northwood) has been Conservative with Uxbridge determining the majority of the council. 57% of Boris' constituency voted Brexit. A lot work at Heathrow.

I am picturing Boris' 'Wilderness Year' while he waits his next 'opportunity to serve'- like Gove, Javid, Portillo, ...

'Safest' Conservative seats: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

#9 Gavin Williamson
24 Nadim Zahawi
28 Jeremy Hunt
36 Michael Gove
39 Rishi Sunak
45 Liz Truss
51 Dominic Raab
290 Boris Johnson

 

[jfollows]

Well said, Gloster!
I think Jeremy Hunt's appointment will calm the markets but next week will see concerted efforts to get rid of Liz Truss. The Sunday Times reports that she thought of George Osborne as chancellor, being helicoptered into Mel Stride's seat in Central Devon after he was booted out of the way. Then Sajid Javid was rejected because he wanted to be in control and was sneeringly rejected by Liz Truss. I don't see how Jeremy Hunt isn't in control now. I also don't think Ben Wallace is a suitable PM and probably doesn't want the job either, he's not ruthless enough.

EDIT The more I think about it, the idea that Sajid Javid was rejected as replacement chancellor because he wanted full control is ridiculous, it's clear that Liz Truss dislikes him and therefore that's why he didn't get the job. Jeremy Hunt has no less "full control" than Sajid Javid would have done.

 

[nw1]

Well said, Gloster!
I think Jeremy Hunt's appointment will calm the markets but next week will see concerted efforts to get rid of Liz Truss. The Sunday Times reports that she thought of George Osborne as chancellor, being helicoptered into Mel Stride's seat in Central Devon after he was booted out of the way.

"Booted out of the way"? How could this happen?

I know nothing about Mel Stride, who he is, or what he stands for, but AFAIK he hasn't done anything which could get him "booted" as an MP and replaced by Osborne.

Austerity Osborne would be much like Hunt. Would calm the markets but do nothing for the Tories' chances at the next election.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Oct 2022 ==

57% of Boris' constituency voted Brexit. A lot work at Heathrow.

A curious irony that the seat swung Brexit when one of the main local employers is one which profits from (and creates jobs from) freedom of movement...

But also curious that it was more Brexity than the national average in general, given inner London to one side and the Home Counties to the other were not, and "leafy suburbia" (which I guess it is?) tends Remain in any case.