Should TfW take over Holyhead to Euston

[Chester1]

Why? as soon as phase 1 opens then they stop at Crewe, unless you are saying Phase 1 is going to be delayed until 2032.

That seems highly unlikely. The original 2026 phase one opening date has slipped but 2029 to Old Oak Common and 2031 to Euston seems to be on schedule.

The existing franchise might be fully nationalised but it should more or less last until HS2 is running Euston to Crewe in 55 minutes. There doesn't need to be major structural changes before then. The problems are management related and due to after effects of pandemic.

 

[Andrew*Debbie]

Why? as soon as phase 1 opens then they stop at Crewe, unless you are saying Phase 1 is going to be delayed until 2032.

That seems highly unlikely. The original 2026 phase one opening date has slipped but 2029 to Old Oak Common and 2031 to Euston seems to be on schedule.

I expect the schedule to slip again. Things go wrong. Governments interfere. We might get Crewe to Old Oak Common by 2030 and Euston ten years from now.


Direct "125mph" vs chage at Crewe to HS2


I did a spot check of the current timetables for Tuesday morning

TfW Bangor to Crewe are between 1:59 and 2:15.

Assume HS2 is timed for the North Wales trains and 15 minutes change time. With TfW we are at about the same jouney time as the direct Voyager when it runs.


The rare direct Voyager takes about 1:35 to Crewe, in part because they call at far fewer stations. But what is the point of running 805s on the North Wales mainline terminating at Crewe? The Voyagers should be long gone and I doubt the North Wales mainline will ever be electrified.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There must be demand if TfW run roughly hourly Holyhead - Birmingham International?

That's just because the former Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Chester and Crewe-Chester-Holyhead services were merged at Chester (leaving Crewe-Chester as a shuttle) - this was in 2004 when ATW was formed, actually before the Welsh Government took control.
But it downgraded the more direct route from Chester/North Wales to Birmingham via Stafford.

Things were OK when Virgin/Avanti ran an hourly Euston-Chester with extensions to North Wales, but they have been decimated since Covid.
The North Wales market defies normal commuting rules, and can be VERY busy at certain times of day/week/year, and empty at others.
Watching a 5-car Voyager unload into an already-full 2-car TfW 158 at Chester can be instructive to the onlooker.
The 2-car 150 Crewe-Chester shuttle is also packed out all day, now that Avanti offers such a poor service.
TfW's Mk4 services (Cardiff-Holyhead) can also operate very empty at times.

TfW could only operate into Euston if they took over either some Voyagers or some of the new 805s arriving soon.
That seems a very unlikely arrangement.
Euston-Chester is also supposedly an important Avanti business market.

 

[A0]

Avanti are presently running 1 direct train between HHD and EUS on Saturdays. This coming week there are zero direct weekday trains. Weekday travel between North Wales and London often involves changing at both Crewe and Chester. As often as not, travel in the North Wales portion is with Transport for Wales.

Should the route be taken away from Avanti and given to TfW? Yes, TfW would need more rolling stock.

What would giving it to TFW resolve?

If Avanti are short of drivers, TUPEing some to TFW would exacerbate Avanti's problems and probably wouldn't give TFW enough to cover the service either.

No doubt it would give the Welsh Assembly an opportunity to use it as some form of virtue signalling about a "nationalised" railway much as the Scot Gov do about the Caley Sleeper and Scotrail, but that's not a justification either.

 

[The Planner]

Euston-Chester is also supposedly an important Avanti business market.

I am not always convinced it is, any engineering work on the south WCML and that service group gets culled first.

 

[XAM2175]

... the Welsh Assembly ...

You mean either the Welsh Parliament or the Welsh Government now

 

[Andrew*Debbie]

What would giving it to TFW resolve?

Better management.
Better industrial relations.


RMT are not in dispute with TfW . Of course that doesn't make much difference when it comes to signaling.
ASLEF are not in dispute with TfW.


North Wales has about 700,000 residents. Cheshire West, which includes Chester and Crewe, has a population of about 339,000

Avanti service, or lack of it, along the North Wales main line is largely ignored by the Westminister Goverment. I hear talk of poor service to Manchester, Liverpool and occasionally Scotland. There is no mention of North Wales. Of course trains to Manchester and Scotland are important, but so is service to north Wales.


The Welsh Government has a rail plan.

https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-11/mainline-railway-enhancement-requirements.pdf

For anyone wondering about my politics, I'm not in favor of independance. I'm not a Welsh nationalist. I just live and work here.

 

[RobShipway]

In Spring next year, Avanti are planning on introducing 13 class 805 - 5 car units to be doing both North Wales and Shrewsbury lines according to the British_Rail_Class_805 page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_805.

Now since the class 805 are EDMU units, I am suspecting that they would be working electric to Crewe from London Euston and then diesel to Holyhead/Shrewsbury, otherwise why lease these trains?

There is also going to be similar 10 7 car class 807 units, but with these just being electric units to do Blackpool North and Liverpool Lime Street from Euston. This will enable the 18 class 221's to be withdrawn.

Now, I personally believe that the Avanti Crew to Holyhead service if paths available should be extended to Birmingham International. This perhaps could happen once HS2 - stage 2 is built, but with the service still using the classic lines so that the service can be stopping at Stafford and Wolverhampton. The more direct service from Holyhead to London Euston should then be using HS2. I know that there is a Transport for Wales Rail service to Birmingham International, but this goes via Birmingham New Street, Smethwick Galton Bridge, Wolverhampton, then via Telford, Shrewsbury, Wrexham route to Chester rather than via Crewe, then Chester to North Wales which is the route that Avanti West Coast takes.

Now, I know some have said that there is not currently the numbers for these type of services. Are the numbers being used current numbers or numbers prior to Covid?

I would add that you certainly need trains that are timed to meet the ferries that have come over from Ireland and again, if not going to London Should be going via Crewe, Chester to Birmingham International.

 

[Kilopylae]

I expect the schedule to slip again. Things go wrong. Governments interfere.

Better management.
Better industrial relations.

You seem to have an oddly inconsistent view of the merits (or otherwise) of government interference in rail—central government will balls up HS2 but a devolved government elected only from Wales will do better than an intercity TOC or national planners at overseeing connections to London?

 

[The Planner]

In Spring next year, Avanti are planning on introducing 13 class 805 - 5 car units to be doing both North Wales and Shrewsbury lines according to the British_Rail_Class_805 page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_805.

Good luck with Spring next year....

 

[RobShipway]

Good luck with Spring next year....

I know, I was just repeating what was on the Wiki page. I suspect it will more likely be winter next year.

 

[Andrew*Debbie]

You seem to have an oddly inconsistent view of the merits (or otherwise) of government interference in rail—central government will balls up HS2 but a devolved government elected only from Wales will do better than an intercity TOC or national planners at overseeing connections to London?

Building HS2 is very different then running 1 to 3 tpd from North Wales to London. Thing go wrong without goverment interferece. HS2 is complex with many different components. There are many places for the schedule to slip.

Right now the Westminister government is looking for savings. HS2 is the elephant in the room no one will mention. Phase 2a was budgeted at £5.2-£7.2bn in 2019 money. We might know more after the 31 October fiscal event.


The Welsh government run TfW has very different industrial relations than Avanti/DfT/Westminister government.
The Welsh govt. has different transportation priorities.

In accordance with Llwybr Newydd, the Wales Transport Strategy we want to reduce Wales’s carbon footprint to protect people and wildlife from the climate emergency.
To do this, we need to reduce the number of journeys taken by private cars and increase the number of people walking, cycling and using public transport.

This is not just asperational. For example: https://gov.wales/report-a55-juncti...nts-and-junction-16-and-16a-improvements-html

Freeze on new roads projects to be announced | GOV.WALES

The Deputy Minister for Climate Change, Lee Waters will announce a freeze on new road building projects, whilst a review of highway schemes across Wales is carried out.

gov.wales

Roads review | GOV.WALES

The roads review panel have published their final report and we have responded to it.

gov.wales

How we're building the railway

Latest HS2 project updates and construction progress. Read about recent milestones, current developments, and what's happening across the high-speed rail network.

www.hs2.org.uk

 

[Dai Corner]

Building HS2 is very different then running 1 to 3 tpd from North Wales to London. Thing go wrong without goverment interferece. HS2 is complex with many different components. There are many places for the schedule to slip.

Right now the Westminister government is looking for savings. HS2 is the elephant in the room no one will mention. Phase 2a was budgeted at £5.2-£7.2bn in 2019 money. We might know more after the 31 October fiscal event.


The Welsh government run TfW has very different industrial relations than Avanti/DfT/Westminister government.
The Welsh govt. has different transportation priorities.



This is not just asperational. For example: https://gov.wales/report-a55-juncti...nts-and-junction-16-and-16a-improvements-html

Freeze on new roads projects to be announced | GOV.WALES

The Deputy Minister for Climate Change, Lee Waters will announce a freeze on new road building projects, whilst a review of highway schemes across Wales is carried out.

gov.wales

Roads review | GOV.WALES

The roads review panel have published their final report and we have responded to it.

gov.wales

How we're building the railway

Latest HS2 project updates and construction progress. Read about recent milestones, current developments, and what's happening across the high-speed rail network.

www.hs2.org.uk

The Welsh Government has not stopped building new roads; rather they've concentrated almost all the budget on one project, the A465 between Dowlais Top and Hirwaun.

It's set to cost the best part of £1bn over 30 years - the Government will lease it from the constructors.

Proportionately that must be comparable to HS2?