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Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

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jfollows

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Danny Finkelstein (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-now-has-no-mandate-and-should-go-b733ts9hj):
Liz Truss now has no mandate and should go​

Daniel Finkelstein

Friday October 14 2022, 3.45pm, The Times

Liz Truss’s premiership is finished, even if it hasn’t stopped.

There have been moments of crisis in the past century that have led to the chancellor resigning or the prime minister losing their credibility or the government being hobbled. But this is different.

The creation of the National Government in 1931, the decision of the Attlee government to devalue the pound in 1949, Jim Callaghan’s resignation as chancellor in 1967, Denis Healey’s IMF crisis in 1976 and Black Wednesday in 1992 all did profound damage to the governments responsible.

Yet each of these was about the collapse of a single plank of policy. What has just happened is far more serious. It is about the collapse of an argument and a mandate.

For more than a decade Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have argued that tax-cutting would generate its own revenue and could be safely done. This was the core of Truss’s leadership campaign. It was one of the main reasons she won. And it did not last much more than a month in office.

What has happened is closer to the winter of discontent of 1978-79. That event brought to an end years of argument, fatally undermining the case for corporatism. Twenty years later the Conservatives were still using pictures of uncollected rubbish and warning about the unions.

In a decade Labour will still be talking about what has just happened. It will take years for the Conservative Party to be able to deploy the argument that it alone is fiscally prudent. And this is the argument that has repeatedly secured it victory.

Only with great skill will Conservatives succeed in separating the bit of the party’s policy which has proven utterly unsustainable — borrowing to cut taxes — from the part they will wish to maintain, the argument that Britain needs to be a relatively low tax and low regulation country to prosper.

Only with great skill will the government be able to create a convincing narrative that somehow integrates this fiasco into some sort of tale of purpose and clarity.

Does Liz Truss possess such great skill? If she does, it is not apparent. She did not meet today’s big moment with a big performance, to put it mildly. Her words were pedestrian and her performance was flat. But I think they are the best she can do. There has never been a moment when her public appearances have been anything more than adequate, at best.

So if she remains as prime minister it is hard to see her government reviving. The Conservative Party will be doomed to defeat and the country will have to live for two years with a government stumbling along, unable to connect with voters or explain itself.

There were many people who criticised Truss for having a mandate only from a handful of Tory members. Now she doesn’t have a mandate even from them, as she has abandoned the main policy she advanced and adopted one that her supporters claimed was mere socialism.

For her to suggest that Kwasi Kwarteng is somehow more culpable than her for this mess is absurd. They thought up this policy together. They were told for more than ten years it was wrong and they failed to listen. Since he has gone, in all honour she should resign too. And they should both apologise for having made such a flimsy case in such a high-handed manner.

The only argument for allowing her to carry on as prime minister is that nobody could bear the alternative — the whole circus of deposing her and replacing her. But surely inertia and embarrassment, as powerful as they are in politics, will not be enough to keep her in place? They certainly shouldn’t be.
Of course, he's never one of her natural supporters, being on the "left" of the party and once SDP, but he's not wrong, I don't think. This is the point at which the Conservative party rescues itself with necessary but harsh actions, or spirals into long-term defeat, and as attractive as the latter might sound at the moment it has a harsh impact on the country until it gets kicked out, which might be January 2025.
 
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Typhoon

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I feel sick at the thought of this. His views surrounding restrictions regarding Coronavirus are downright scary.
I don't know why? Come Black Friday, he'll be out on his ear.

She appears to have no political nous, that she is making things worse. God help so when the financial markets open.

This reminds me of Jeremy Thorpe's finest hour, when he said of MacMillan
“greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life”
following the 'Night of the Long Knives".

The only positives I can think of is the knowledge that those financiers, stockbrokers and merchant bankers at the Champagne Party must be feeling pretty sick right now. And (hopefully) Kwarteng is finished!
 

SynthD

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I'm deeply uncomfortable about the idea of the UK apparently being governed by unelected markets rather than elected politicians. That's not a party political point - the same issue rose its head at the prospect of a Corbyn government, with dire warnings then of a 'run on the pound'. Politicians have to be able to push through the policies they believe to be in the interest of the country, not just the markets, but it seems that's no longer possible. Everyone has to follow the same narrow neo-liberal globalist global consensus or they get punished. I don't believe this is a good thing at all.
Politicians define their own success by the market's performance during their term, and the impact that has on mainstream stock market interaction (ie pensions). Some may prefer specific stocks to do well, either through personal investment or their non-Parliamentary backers. I think we're too far gone to change from that. Corbyn/left-Labour was the opportunity for that but some have put it in the same group as errors as Truss's recent work. I'm interested in what the other directions out of this can be if Corbynism is rejected.
 

Lost property

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So how long before the Honourable Member for Cheese and Pork returns to the back benches...and political oblivion.
 

MikeWM

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Politicians define their own success by the market's performance during their term, and the impact that has on mainstream stock market interaction (ie pensions). Some may prefer specific stocks to do well, either through personal investment or their non-Parliamentary backers. I think we're too far gone to change from that. Corbyn/left-Labour was the opportunity for that but some have put it in the same group as errors as Truss's recent work. I'm interested in what the other directions out of this can be if Corbynism is rejected.

That's been more-or-less my point here, yes. I was quite happy to give Corbyn-onomics a go, there was nothing there that would have been seen as alarming 40 or 50 years ago, perhaps that couldn't have worked today but it would have been worth trying. Equally, though rather less enthusiastic, I was interested to see if Truss-onomics was worth a go and to see if that had any success.

But it seems we're stuck with the system we have - which, to be blunt, doesn't work. Alternatives from left and right have been ruthlessly destroyed before they had a chance to even be attempted.
 

BrianW

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Yes, Jeremy Hunt is new chancellor
Ed Argar is his deputy

Chris Phillips new Paymaster General
Good moves (!)
Jeremy Hunt no longer chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, where he might have been critical of smokin' and drinkin' Deputy PM Coffey 'policy'- he's now locked inside the tent. His dad was IIRC an admiral, so no prob finding more £ for Defence.
Ed Argar was until today a Minister of State at Health.
Maybe big changes (cuts) ahead at big-spending Health Dept?
Is this a speculative thread??
I'm assuming (I) some thought given to post-fillers ;)

Also-
Hell hath no fury like a Chancellor spurned.
Norman Lamont, Dominic Lawson, Geoffrey Howe, Selwyn Lloyd, Peter Thornycroft, Reggie Maudling, Nadhim Zahawi, Sajid Javed, Spreadsheet Phil, ... all great examples of successful spurned Chancellors?
 

AM9

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Good moves (!)
Jeremy Hunt no longer chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, where he might have been critical of smokin' and drinkin' Deputy PM Coffey 'policy'- he's now locked inside the tent. His dad was IIRC an admiral, so no prob finding more £ for Defence.
Ed Argar was until today a Minister of State at Health.
Maybe big changes (cuts) ahead at big-spending Health Dept?
Is this a speculative thread??
I'm assuming (I) some thought given to post-fillers ;)

Also-


Norman Lamont, Dominic Lawson, Geoffrey Howe, Selwyn Lloyd, Peter Thornycroft, Reggie Maudling, Nadhim Zahawi, Sajid Javed, Spreadsheet Phil, ... all great examples of successful spurned Chancellors?
Geoffrey Howe being the most revered one, effectively ending Thatcher's reign with his 'dead sheep' speech.
 

najaB

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So, with Truss appointing Hunt as chancellor does that mean she's joined the anti-growth coalition?
 

BrianW

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Fairly sure it was Nigel
Correct and now corrected. Can't think how Dominic got in there- maybe I was thinking of Cummings, and Goings! Should have been Nigella ? You've got to laugh??
 

Busaholic

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Hmm... something doesn't seem right here.

Well, in the Alice in Wonderland world of the Tory party, both could be said to be true! Kwarteng said he was asked to resign, and accepted, thus implying he had a choice, and chose to go along with it. Truss could argue (I'm playing devil's advocate here, obviously) by so doing he sealed his own fate, so she had no need to sack him. Both are right and both are wrong: bring on the Red Queen. Lewis Carroll (Charles Dodgson), you should be living in this time.

Has the application to rejoin the EU been made yet? :D

Wake me when the nightmare's over.
 

Class 33

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I haven't caught up reading all through this thread yet. But Liz Truss seems absolutely useless and very arrogant. I caught up just now watching her press conference this afternoon. I was expecting it to last about 30 minutes or so, answering a number of journalists questions. But it lasted barely only about 10 minutes! She looked very nervous, only answered questions of two journalists, and then just stormed off saying "Thanks everyone. That's it!". One of them shouting out to her "Aren't you going to apologize?"!!!

She could well be the shortest duration serving Prime Minister ever!
 

Busaholic

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I haven't caught up reading all through this thread yet. But Liz Truss seems absolutely useless and very arrogant. I caught up just now watching her press conference this afternoon. I was expecting it to last about 30 minutes or so, answering a number of journalists questions. But it lasted barely only about 10 minutes! She looked very nervous, only answered questions of two journalists, and then just stormed off saying "Thanks everyone. That's it!". One of them shouting out to her "Aren't you going to apologize?"!!!

She could well be the shortest duration serving Prime Minister ever!
Treating press conferences just like her near-namesake Trump did. She'll be banning the BBC from them next, prior to her defenestration.
 

nw1

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Truss won't survive the next election as a sitting MP, let alone as PM.

Not so sure. Given she's an MP for the kind of constituency which remained resolutely blue throughout the Blair years, I suspect that will be a dead-cert Con hold.
 

duncanp

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Sounds like the only thing keeping Truss in post is Sir Graham Brady being on holiday:


William Hill has the following odds on the next Conservative leader

  • Rishi Sunak - 7/4
  • Penny Mordaunt - 5/1
  • Jeremy Hunt - 6/1
  • Kemi Badenoch - 8/1
  • Boris Johnson - 8/1
  • Ben Wallace - 10/1
and you can even bet on when Liz Truss will resign.

  • 2022 - 4/6
  • 2023 - 6/4
  • 2024 - 14/1
  • 2025 or later - 18/1
 

Yew

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I'm deeply unconfortable about the idea of the UK apparently being governed by unelected forces like gravity rather than elected politicians. Politicians have to be able to push through the policies they believe to be in the interest of the country, not physics, but it seems that's no longer possible.
The majority of the existence of human society has not included the Dow Jones index and rampant speculation. Whilst gravity is uncontravertable, the current financial markets are easily regulated.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I haven't caught up reading all through this thread yet. But Liz Truss seems absolutely useless and very arrogant. I caught up just now watching her press conference this afternoon. I was expecting it to last about 30 minutes or so, answering a number of journalists questions. But it lasted barely only about 10 minutes! She looked very nervous, only answered questions of two journalists, and then just stormed off saying "Thanks everyone. That's it!". One of them shouting out to her "Aren't you going to apologize?"!!!

She could well be the shortest duration serving Prime Minister ever!
well when the Daily Telegraph and Sun went straight on the war path she obviously realised she was going to be utterly humiliated by the likes of Rigby et al so did a runner.

perhaps "Thanks everyone. That's it!" was her defacto resignation
 

Busaholic

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Sorrry maybe I misread this. 2025? Well its just gone 20:30 and she's still there
:D :D

If Parliament were dissolved on Friday 28th October there could be a General Election on Thursday 24th November.
 
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Herefordian

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I'd love to see Hunt as leader and Sunak back as chancellor. He's about the best they've got.

I agree with the sentiment, but best?

Today's politics is more about who or which party is the least worst.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Sorrry maybe I misread this. 2025? Well its just gone 20:30 and she's still there

This made me chuckle.

Great post.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I'd love to see Hunt as leader and Sunak back as chancellor. He's about the best they've got.
Ben Wallace is the best candidate. Has kept out of the trough and just got on with doing what they are supposed to be doing running departments not playing political games
 

Herefordian

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Ben Wallace is the best candidate. Has kept out of the trough and just got on with doing what they are supposed to be doing running departments not playing political games

Wallace is good, but I think he's better where he is.

Isn't he reportedly interested in leading NATO?
 
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