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Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

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jfollows

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BBC Newsnight editor (https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580887374292455424):
Nicholas Watt
@nicholaswatt


A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of @KwasiKwarteng will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on @trussliz to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.”

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

So Truss has sacked Kwarteng for delivering her policies.
Exactly, which is presumably why some "senior Tories" aren't prepared to put up with it.
 
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yorksrob

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Well, ok, in order:

- If that's banker bonuses, I think we already discussed that. Fiddling about with this is virtue signalling to cover for the fact they haven't put in place the reforms in regulation that are needed to stop banks destroying the economy a second time. Unfortunately Truss isn't doing that, but I don't see anyone else having done it either.

- I rather like the idea of governments running policy, not civil servants. Civil servants are there to implement policy. I really don't care much if they want a change in personnel.

- The OBR was only established in 2012. It is a reasonable thing to have, but I recall that we coped with all sorts of budgets before then, so I don't see why it is now viewed as essential.

- The pensions market were over-leveraged in dodgy instruments and so over-exposed to sudden moves in the markets. Again, the fact that happened is a failure of regulation that no-one has addressed or is going to try to address. In any event, the cost of the BoE's intervention in the market was less than 4bn, not the 65bn widely quoted, and they got gilts in return, so it isn't exactly money thrown into a black hole.

- Fracking, whatever we think of it, was covered in her campaign, it was quite explicit that she intended to remove the ban.

- As the market price of gas falls, the energy price cap becomes less and less of a commitment. Obviously *something* really did have to be done here. And again, it doesn't deviate from what was covered in her campaign.

- The Euro and the Yen, among others, have fallen against the dollar by comparable amounts to the GBP recently. Is that Truss' fault too?


I appreciate a number of these things are *controversial*, and I don't agree with all of them in the slightest, but the reaction to them appears incredibly over-the-top.

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I find it hard to believe that most people care that much about fiscal prudence again all of a sudden, after we spent the last few years spending hundreds and huindreds of billions of pounds on a totally fruitless endeavour. This is a drop in the ocean compared to that, and at least it has some professed purpose, even if you disagree that 'Trussonomics' will work (I don't think it will myself, but there is some evidence that it might).

This appears to be in the spirit of the 2019 manifesto to me. Conversely, what very explicitly was breaching the 2019 manifesto was the increase in NI that Johnson and Sunak pushed through. Were people calling for a GE in response to that?

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:) I think we'd agree that Johnson wasn't exactly being accurate in that statement though. Not least because, as I mentioned above, he raised taxes despite having very explicitly committed to not donig so.



Of course. This is an obvious example - do you think these Tory MPs are *ideologically* supportive of corporation tax rises (and if so, did they get lost and join the wrong party at some point?!) They're using it as a stick to beat Truss and Kwarteng with, and that's politics.

Well, maybe if they hadn't spent the last forty years lecturing everyone on the need to stay within the budget and not borrow beyond our means.

Maybe if they'd planned to spend the money on some sort of useful investment....
 

nw1

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BBC now reporting Kwarteng has been sacked (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63221738).

As a back-bench ex-Chancellor, will he keep quiet or will he cause problems for Liz Truss?

Also (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...et-liz-truss-corporation-tax-uk-politics-live):

So it's 100% Kwasi Kwarteng's fault. Yeah, right.

He of course had a role to play but was not the sole architect of the mess.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

So Truss has sacked Kwarteng for delivering her policies.

Indeed.

Mind you if Truss follows Kwarteng out the door, we need to demand a general election as soon as possible, which realistically will mean the spring. The Conservative Party need to drop the born-to-rule arrogance and put it to the people, rather than have Truss replaced with some other Tory. They want elections when it suits them, but not otherwise.

The Tories can witter on about an election being a so-called "violation of democracy" all they like - but a) it's not 2019 anymore and b) to my mind five-year terms are a violation of democracy. Sensible countries have four-year terms.

But maybe that's the whole point of an Oxford PPE degree. Develop the skills to twist arguments to convince opponents that they, and not you, are the bad ones.
 
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nlogax

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Quite amazingly the talk is of Jeremy Hunt becoming the next chancellor. I do love political drama but the last six months have been insane and I think after today we're looking at Truss on borrowed time.
 

MikeWM

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Well, maybe if they hadn't spent the last forty years lecturing everyone on the need to stay within the budget and not borrow beyond our means.

Maybe if they'd planned to spend the money on some sort of useful investment....

Well, I'd far rather they used to money to build some useful things - more council houses, or public transport, or something. I don't particularly agree with the policies, or 'Trussonomics'.

But what I find alarming is the undemocratic way such policies are being prevented from being implemented. As I said a couple of posts ago, I had the same concerns about Corbyn's policies (which I *did* largely agree with, but were equally viewed as 'undeliverable', even if he'd got a democratic mandate to do so).

If we can't change things at the ballot box, we're in a lot of trouble. I don't want to be governed by unelected markets, the unelected IMF, the unelected BIS, the unelected WEF, or the unelected WHO. But increasingly it appears that this is exactly what is happening.
 

Bantamzen

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Quite amazingly the talk is of Jeremy Hunt becoming the next chancellor. I do love political drama but the last six months have been insane and I think after today we're looking at Truss on borrowed time.
If that happens we need to call IT support, because there is definitely a glitch in the Matrix....
 

Howardh

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So she's sacked her chancellor that she employed who installed her budget to the letter ie. the opposite of what her rival, Sunak, wanted?

I'm surprised Kwarting is still standing by her, I'd be off and leg it across the House. So should his supporters.
 

yorksrob

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Well, I'd far rather they used to money to build some useful things - more council houses, or public transport, or something. I don't particularly agree with the policies, or 'Trussonomics'.

But what I find alarming is the undemocratic way such policies are being prevented from being implemented. As I said a couple of posts ago, I had the same concerns about Corbyn's policies (which I *did* largely agree with, but were equally viewed as 'undeliverable', even if he'd got a democratic mandate to do so).

If we can't change things at the ballot box, we're in a lot of trouble. I don't want to be governed by unelected markets, the unelected IMF, the unelected BIS, the unelected WEF, or the unelected WHO. But increasingly it appears that this is exactly what is happening.

I think it's more the undemocratic wat these policies are being implemented. If the Tories want to trash the economy with a poorly thought out plan, they should have the decency to get a mandate for it.

And what exactly is undemocratic about elected members holding the unelected executive (at least as an executive) to account ?
 

Bletchleyite

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If we can't change things at the ballot box, we're in a lot of trouble. I don't want to be governed by unelected markets, the unelected IMF, the unelected BIS, the unelected WEF, or the unelected WHO. But increasingly it appears that this is exactly what is happening.

The only way we have to avoid that is that we become more protectionist and cease to borrow money on the worldwide markets. That's possible, but would involve very significant increases in taxation.
 

dosxuk

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If we can't change things at the ballot box, we're in a lot of trouble. I don't want to be governed by unelected markets, the unelected IMF, the unelected BIS, the unelected WEF, or the unelected WHO. But increasingly it appears that this is exactly what is happening.
They're not preventing the policies from being enacted, but they are applying consequences to those policies.

Just because the Government says their financial plans are great and will cause no negative effects does not mean the rest of the world has to agree with them. If the Government want to keep these policies, only the electorate can stop them, but that doesn't mean that they won't have to deal with the consequences of those policies.

If the Government had an electoral mandate for this budget then they would not be sacking people or u-turning element by element.

A hypothetical UK Government could decide to change our calendar to have eight day weeks - well within their rights to do so and it would be a workable policy, but that doesn't mean that the wider world wouldn't or shouldn't be allowed to criticise them for the obvious challenges and difficulties that such a decision would cause.

So she's sacked her chancellor that she employed who installed her budget to the letter ie. the opposite of what her rival, Sunak, wanted?

I'm surprised Kwarting is still standing by her, I'd be off and leg it across the House. So should his supporters.

Indeed there are several political commentators noting this afternoon that Kwarteng is popular as an MP (probably less so in the role of chancellor) and that Truss needs to be careful if she wants to make an enemy of him and his supporters as she may be running out of backers.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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So she's sacked her chancellor that she employed who installed her budget to the letter ie. the opposite of what her rival, Sunak, wanted?

I'm surprised Kwarting is still standing by her, I'd be off and leg it across the House. So should his supporters.
Kwarteng letter shows hes still keeping the faith and accepts he is collateral damage for the greater good

1665750225272.png
 

TheEdge

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The Daily Star is now running the best Liz Truss feature. Welcome to 2022 ladies and gentlemen.
 

DelayRepay

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Today's news means we'll have our fourth Chancellor in four months, against the backdrop of a cost of living crisis. Is this the 'strong and stable' government the Tory party claimed to offer?
 

jfollows

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Apparently it's just happened. Hunt is chancellor.
Comment on Sky that “the markets” don’t care because there will be someone else soon (appointed by Truss’s replacement).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Today's news means we'll have our fourth Chancellor in four months, against the backdrop of a cost of living crisis. Is this the 'strong and stable' government the Tory party claimed to offer?
Wait for the fifth Chancellor next week.
 

Fragezeichnen

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If we can't change things at the ballot box, we're in a lot of trouble. I don't want to be governed by unelected markets,

I'm reminded of Paul Bettany's speech in the film Margin Call about people wanting the benefits offered by the Banking system, but not to accept the consequences when the assumptions the whole system is built on collapse.
If the UK wanted it could provide pensions generous enough that no-one needed a private pension, mortgages backed by the government, and industrial investment support for any business that needed it. They don't though - they want "the markets" to provide it.

the unelected IMF, the unelected BIS, the unelected WEF, or the unelected WHO. But increasingly it appears that this is exactly what is happening.

The IMF is run a a day to day basis by a 24 person executive council, one member of which is appointed by the British Government. The BIS is similar.
They're only unelected if you if apply the definition used by Brexit supporters, which seems to be that democracy doesn't count if it isn't British people doing the voting(or that everyone has to be directly elected, in which case Kwasi Kwarteng is/was unelected too).
 

BrianW

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So she's sacked her chancellor that she employed who installed her budget to the letter ie. the opposite of what her rival, Sunak, wanted?

I'm surprised Kwarting is still standing by her, I'd be off and leg it across the House. So should his supporters.
Kwarteng to 'cross the floor'- where to?
Apparently it's just happened. Hunt is chancellor.
Job for Gove next? Actually so many on the sidelines waiting the call to 'serve'. New new 'policies' to come- in the nick/ fullness of time?
Kwarteng letter shows hes still keeping the faith and accepts he is collateral damage for the greater good

View attachment 122110
Noting Kwarteng 'asked to stand aside' and 'as I have said many times' ...

Learning from history- Sixty years ago: Liberal MP Jeremy Thorpe, in a humorous twist on a biblical phrase, observed that "Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life as the then PM, Harold Macmillan, sacked seven, including the then Chancellor!
 

jfollows

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Chris Philp also sacked, good, his public appearances were not good. Any opportunity for self-promotion, according to some characterisations, but that’s probably true for most politicians I admit.
 

dosxuk

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Confirmed that Hunt is the new chancellor.

The Rt Hon Jeremy Hunt MP @Jeremy_Hunt has been appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer @HMTreasury.
FfB-Rn5XkAEWna7
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1580904750685777920

Based on his performance at education & health, how long before he makes the treasury staff announce strike action?
 

61653 HTAFC

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Hmmmm...

When I said "[Truss] will be lucky to last a year in office" on the NPR thread the other day, I didn't think I was being overly optimistic or generous!
 

jfollows

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You could do a lot worse (he's a very prudent moderate). And there's the malapropism joke, just as when he was the Culture Secretary. :D
Yes, and as I read it it means that every single one of Liz Truss's bonkers policies are out of the window, because Jeremy Hunt will refuse to have anything to do with them, and instead we'll get the policies set out by Rishi Sunak in his recent campaign and building on his policies as Chancellor. So he might as well be PM, surely? Which is what I expect a number of significant people to think and act on.
 

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Chris Philp also sacked, good, his public appearances were not good. Any opportunity for self-promotion, according to some characterisations, but that’s probably true for most politicians I admit.
He's not gone completely, he has moved to the Cabinet Office, which is where Johnson used to put his trusted fixers (like Barclay).
 

GS250

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Oh well we got the diverse, reflective of the UK cabinet that we always aspired to......I thought that was what really mattered as opposed to ability. 'Positive' discrimination and all that?
 
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