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Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

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SynthD

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is in the spirit (if not the detail, which you can't expect nearly 3 years into a Parliament) of the Tory 2019 manifesto
That is disputed. Johnson claimed, in his leaving speech, he accomplished what he set out to do. He left her little right to do anything. She could draw a straight line between what she’s doing and the mandate she’s working with, but it would resemble a wheel of cheese, or an outline of a pig.
it is clear this isn't an ideological matter but rather politics
There’s a difference?
 
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jfollows

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The Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...with-rishi-sunak-and-penny-mordaunt-wjdfwzzvk) is reporting a potential pact between Sunak and Mordaunt to replace Truss with either
  • Rishi Sunak as PM with Penny Mordaunt as deputy and Foreign Secretary
  • Penny Mordaunt as PM with Rishi Sunak as Chancellor
That may just be the rumour of the moment. Will probably be overtaken by events.
Senior Conservatives are holding talks about replacing Liz Truss with a joint ticket of Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt as part of a “coronation” by MPs.
EDIT Spotted by brad465 just now also!
They ["senior Tories"?] predicted a pact between Sunak, who lost to Truss in the members’ ballot, and Mordaunt, who finished third in the leadership contest, would have the support of an overwhelming majority of Conservative MPs.
Around “20 to 30” former ministers and senior backbenchers are attempting to find a way for a “council of elders” to tell Truss to quit. “Conversations are stepping up,” said one former minister.
Another MP added: “Rishi’s people, Penny’s people and the sensible Truss supporters who realise she’s a disaster just need to sit down together and work out who the unity candidate is. It’s either Rishi as prime minister with Penny as his deputy and foreign secretary, or Penny as prime minister with Rishi as chancellor. They would promise to lead a government of all the talents and most MPs would fall in behind that.”
 

Cloud Strife

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Surely this is nonsense. Mordaunt is a lock-in for the next Tory leader, and she doesn't need to take power now when she's potentially in a position to win big in 2029. Having 5 years to shape the Tories will put her in a strong position, and you'd have to fancy Mordaunt's chances of winning a majority in any GE.
 

Bantamzen

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The Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...with-rishi-sunak-and-penny-mordaunt-wjdfwzzvk) is reporting a potential pact between Sunak and Mordaunt to replace Truss with either
  • Rishi Sunak as PM with Penny Mordaunt as deputy and Foreign Secretary
  • Penny Mordaunt as PM with Rishi Sunak as Chancellor
That may just be the rumour of the moment. Will probably be overtaken by events.

EDIT Spotted by brad465 just now also!
I never thought I would have found myself saying this a few years ago, but Sunak for PM would be quite the relief. I honestly don't know enough about Mordaunt to think she should yet take the top job, & Sunak does at least have a bit more experience on the front line so his slightly more calm demeanour would hopefully stop the Tories from rattling the whole country apart.

And in other news the Boy Wonder Kwarteng has cut short his US trip and is on his way home, presumably to discuss how to make that U-turn & more importantly make it look like it was his idea all along. Who thought that there could be a worse leader and cabinet than BoJo & Co. If this were a BBC drama, we'd all be slating it for being unrealistic....
 

kristiang85

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You do wonder if all this chaos would have happened if someone eminently sensible from the back benches like a Steve Baker figure was selected by the members as leader. I know he was put off last time, but I can't help but feel this current government is so mediocre (and distasteful in some cases) I don't trust any of them to run it. New ideas are needed, and some old grandees should be brought back into key positions to steady the ship. I could see someone like Baker being the person to organise that, even if it's not necessarily him.

The problem is that many back bench MPs are decent people *because* they don't want to be involved in front line politics and just serve their constituents. So you end up with the over ambitious drivel who are happy to suck up to the leader in the ministerial positions.
 

Bantamzen

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You do wonder if all this chaos would have happened if someone eminently sensible from the back benches like a Steve Baker figure was selected by the members as leader. I know he was put off last time, but I can't help but feel this current government is so mediocre (and distasteful in some cases) I don't trust any of them to run it. New ideas are needed, and some old grandees should be brought back into key positions to steady the ship. I could see someone like Baker being the person to organise that, even if it's not necessarily him.

The problem is that many back bench MPs are decent people *because* they don't want to be involved in front line politics and just serve their constituents. So you end up with the over ambitious drivel who are happy to suck up to the leader in the ministerial positions.
I think its often been the case that those politicians stepping up to the front line have often been over-ambitious, unrealistic and sometimes outright useless. Whereas many back-benchers have just kept their heads down and tried to do the best for their voters. This needs to change, we can't have the likes of Johnson, Truss et al just rocking up with absolutely no idea what they are doing, & just constantly winging it. We need as a country to stop voting in the clowns into Parliament in the first place by actually challenging their views when they first stand up for becoming an MP, as well as stop being so bloody polarised & sticking to one party regardless so that those that make it there are at least a bit more competent than the current batch.

Its never going to happen like, but we can dream...
 

najaB

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I think its often been the case that those politicians stepping up to the front line have often been over-ambitious, unrealistic and sometimes outright useless. Whereas many back-benchers have just kept their heads down and tried to do the best for their voters.
A stated desire to lead should serve as an instant red flag.
 

philosopher

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I think its often been the case that those politicians stepping up to the front line have often been over-ambitious, unrealistic and sometimes outright useless. Whereas many back-benchers have just kept their heads down and tried to do the best for their voters. This needs to change, we can't have the likes of Johnson, Truss et al just rocking up with absolutely no idea what they are doing, & just constantly winging it. We need as a country to stop voting in the clowns into Parliament in the first place by actually challenging their views when they first stand up for becoming an MP, as well as stop being so bloody polarised & sticking to one party regardless so that those that make it there are at least a bit more competent than the current batch.

Its never going to happen like, but we can dream...
What I find frustrating is that the most promising candidates for some reason seem to always either drop out or decide not to stand. This happened with Ben Wallace with the Tory leadership contest this summer. A few years back Chuka Umunna did the same thing in a Labour leadership contest.

There seems to be something about UK politics that puts off the more competent and well meaning MPs from going for leadership positions. Instead we end up with leaders whom are self serving and generally crap.
 

dosxuk

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someone eminently sensible from the back benches like a Steve Baker
Steve Baker - former chair of the loony wing of the Tory party - is now "eminently sensible"?!

Sorry, but if he's now seen as being on the sensible side of the party then the whole lot need to go. Being reduced to a handful of MPs would do them good and they might actually start looking at what's good for the country rather than themselves.
 

Bantamzen

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A stated desire to lead should serve as an instant red flag.
Indeed, although at some point a prospective leader has to let themselves be known otherwise, well see below...

What I find frustrating is that the most promising candidates for some reason seem to always either drop out or decide not to stand. This happened with Ben Wallace with the Tory leadership contest this summer. A few years back Chuka Umunna did the same thing in a Labour leadership contest.

There seems to be something about UK politics that puts off the more competent and well meaning MPs from going for leadership positions. Instead we end up with leaders whom are self serving and generally crap.
It is frustrating that some of the nation's best politicians are so put off actually getting towards the front bench. And this will continue whilst we insist on the cult of personality style of politics the world (not just the UK) sees right now. Its the same inside the public sector, the noisy & often empty vessels rise to the top whilst the really good staff stay locked inside the system. This is because we as a society "reward" the bold and the brash, if by no other means than attention but often with the top jobs.
 

kristiang85

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Steve Baker - former chair of the loony wing of the Tory party - is now "eminently sensible"?!

Sorry, but if he's now seen as being on the sensible side of the party then the whole lot need to go. Being reduced to a handful of MPs would do them good and they might actually start looking at what's good for the country rather than themselves.

Well it all comes down to personal preference, but in terms of more pragmatic and calm voices from the back benches in the last few years of chaos, and who might be persuaded to actually stand up, he comes to mind first.
 

Citybreak1

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Surely this is nonsense. Mordaunt is a lock-in for the next Tory leader, and she doesn't need to take power now when she's potentially in a position to win big in 2029. Having 5 years to shape the Tories will put her in a strong position, and you'd have to fancy Mordaunt's chances of winning a majority in any GE.
Labour will win the next election and the one after. That’s my opinion. Conservatives will be out of power for a while.
 

Lost property

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I never thought I would have found myself saying this a few years ago, but Sunak for PM would be quite the relief. I honestly don't know enough about Mordaunt to think she should yet take the top job, & Sunak does at least have a bit more experience on the front line so his slightly more calm demeanour would hopefully stop the Tories from rattling the whole country apart.

And in other news the Boy Wonder Kwarteng has cut short his US trip and is on his way home, presumably to discuss how to make that U-turn & more importantly make it look like it was his idea all along. Who thought that there could be a worse leader and cabinet than BoJo & Co. If this were a BBC drama, we'd all be slating it for being unrealistic....
If recent events, including those involving Boris, were screeded as episodes of " Yes, Prime Minister ", they would have won every television award for comedy possible. Unfortunately, there's nothing comedic about the unprecedented arrogance, maliciousness, incompetence and self serving current Gov.
 

RichJF

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It is frustrating that some of the nation's best politicians are so put off actually getting towards the front bench. And this will continue whilst we insist on the cult of personality style of politics the world (not just the UK) sees right now. Its the same inside the public sector, the noisy & often empty vessels rise to the top whilst the really good staff stay locked inside the system. This is because we as a society "reward" the bold and the brash, if by no other means than attention but often with the top jobs.
Almost as if we are mirroring the 1920s/30s again. Rise of cult leaders, economic crash, rise of the political right, trying to appease a dictator who wants to annex land, a war in a European country...
 

jfollows

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Liz Truss, probably on her own, will hold a press conference to take questions later, presumably U-turn on corporation tax, Chancellor sidelined even though he’s now arrived back in the UK.
So Liz may blame Kwasi in the hope of saving her own skin.
Chris Mason for the BBC writes (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63251965) that there are two different sets of speculation - getting rid of Kwasi Kwarteng will direct all the lightning towards Liz Truss, or that replacing him with - say - Sajid Javid - will calm things down.
 
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MikeWM

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Mainly proposing to undo the protections put in place to prevent a second financial crisis, forcing out the senior civil servant in the Treasury and then refusing to let the OBR prepare a report on the mini budget, which was so bad that it almost collapsed the UK pensions market, putting forth plans to allow fracking despite even the main company involved in it saying that has zero chance of providing any useful amount of gas, massively increasing Government borrowing to protect the profit margins of oil companies and tanking the value of the pound.

Other than that, not much.

Well, ok, in order:

- If that's banker bonuses, I think we already discussed that. Fiddling about with this is virtue signalling to cover for the fact they haven't put in place the reforms in regulation that are needed to stop banks destroying the economy a second time. Unfortunately Truss isn't doing that, but I don't see anyone else having done it either.

- I rather like the idea of governments running policy, not civil servants. Civil servants are there to implement policy. I really don't care much if they want a change in personnel.

- The OBR was only established in 2012. It is a reasonable thing to have, but I recall that we coped with all sorts of budgets before then, so I don't see why it is now viewed as essential.

- The pensions market were over-leveraged in dodgy instruments and so over-exposed to sudden moves in the markets. Again, the fact that happened is a failure of regulation that no-one has addressed or is going to try to address. In any event, the cost of the BoE's intervention in the market was less than 4bn, not the 65bn widely quoted, and they got gilts in return, so it isn't exactly money thrown into a black hole.

- Fracking, whatever we think of it, was covered in her campaign, it was quite explicit that she intended to remove the ban.

- As the market price of gas falls, the energy price cap becomes less and less of a commitment. Obviously *something* really did have to be done here. And again, it doesn't deviate from what was covered in her campaign.

- The Euro and the Yen, among others, have fallen against the dollar by comparable amounts to the GBP recently. Is that Truss' fault too?


I appreciate a number of these things are *controversial*, and I don't agree with all of them in the slightest, but the reaction to them appears incredibly over-the-top.

--

Primarily increasing borrowing to fund an untargeted tax cut.

If they want to introduce radical policies, they should put them to the whole electorate.

I find it hard to believe that most people care that much about fiscal prudence again all of a sudden, after we spent the last few years spending hundreds and huindreds of billions of pounds on a totally fruitless endeavour. This is a drop in the ocean compared to that, and at least it has some professed purpose, even if you disagree that 'Trussonomics' will work (I don't think it will myself, but there is some evidence that it might).

This appears to be in the spirit of the 2019 manifesto to me. Conversely, what very explicitly was breaching the 2019 manifesto was the increase in NI that Johnson and Sunak pushed through. Were people calling for a GE in response to that?

--

That is disputed. Johnson claimed, in his leaving speech, he accomplished what he set out to do. He left her little right to do anything.

:) I think we'd agree that Johnson wasn't exactly being accurate in that statement though. Not least because, as I mentioned above, he raised taxes despite having very explicitly committed to not donig so.

There’s a difference?

Of course. This is an obvious example - do you think these Tory MPs are *ideologically* supportive of corporation tax rises (and if so, did they get lost and join the wrong party at some point?!) They're using it as a stick to beat Truss and Kwarteng with, and that's politics.
 

jfollows

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Latest reports that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked. https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580868139692134400
I'm told that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked as Chancellor as Liz Truss prepares to reverse the mini-Budget Not clear who will be replacing him Events moving very, very quickly this morning No 10 not commenting
News conference scheduled for 2pm.
I don't personally think this gets Liz Truss off the hook for what were effectively her campaign promises, and that although they may have been in agreement at the time she appointed Kwasi to do her work, and her fingerprints are all over it.
 
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brad465

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Latest reports that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked. https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580868139692134400

News conference scheduled for 2pm.
I don't personally think this gets Liz Truss off the hook for what were effectively her campaign promises, and that although they may have been in agreement at the time she appointed Kwasi to do her work, and her fingerprints are all over it.
Had she dismissed him much earlier then she could have dumped all the blame on him more effectively, but by dragging it out and doubling down for a while, now she is as responsible.
 

duncanp

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Word has it that will be the case!

Never mind next week, today it would seem, at least according to the Telegraph live feed

Can't help think that Liz Truss is on borrowed time.

Kwasi Kwarteng 'being sacked as Chancellor'​

Steven Swinford, the political editor at The Times, is now reporting that he has been told that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked as Chancellor.
Here is his tweet:

EXCLUSIVE:

I'm told that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked as Chancellor as Liz Truss prepares to reverse the mini-Budget

Not clear who will be replacing him

Events moving very, very quickly this morning
 

jfollows

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Jeremy Hunt being suggested as replacement Chancellor (https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796):
I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
Plus the Chief Whip was almost sacked yesterday (https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580873391371739136):
Also, Truss apparently came very close to sacking her Chief Whip Wendy Morton yesterday. Only saved by the Deputy PM Therese Coffey’s intervention.
I really don't see how this adds up to saving Liz Truss from her own incompetence, stupidity and pig-headedness.
As the first quote asks, I don't think Jeremy Hunt should agree to take on the job if he's asked unless there's a lot of extra conditions in his favour attached, along the lines of sorting out a mess not of his causing and with which he never agreed. But he does have a track record of refusing posts.

EDIT Iain Macleod was the only Chancellor to serve a shorter term than Kwasi Kwarteng, assuming the latter is sacked today, and that's only because the former died after 30 days in office.
 
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Class 317

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In response to the people saying Trusses policies were in the 2019 manifesto this is not the case.

In terms of environmental policies it promised no fracking, agricultural policies with the environmental goods replacing subsidies for production and measures to increase renewable energy. Trusses policies are very close to being the complete opposite.

In terms of tax, no tax rises were promised but tax cuts funded by borrowing or cutting spending on public services was not either.
In fact funding for defense, NHS and education was to be increased.

Borrowing to give tax cuts is very much against traditional conservative values and has generally always been seen as destabilizing for the economy.
 

jfollows

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In response to the people saying Trusses policies were in the 2019 manifesto this is not the case.
No indeed, they were in her manifesto earlier this year to a small and special electorate only.
Plus, she spent her campaign scorning, sneering at and generally rubbishing Rishi Sunak for claiming that her plans made no sense and would be a disaster.
 

najaB

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I rather like the idea of governments running policy, not civil servants. Civil servants are there to implement policy. I really don't care much if they want a change in personnel.
But it's a red flag when the government removes long-standing civil services precisely because ministers want to push through unworkable policies. And according to the PM, the mini budget wasn't government policy, but rather was all the work of the (ex?) Chancellor.
The OBR was only established in 2012. It is a reasonable thing to have, but I recall that we coped with all sorts of budgets before then, so I don't see why it is now viewed as essential.
Indeed, it is not necessary. But the fact that the (ex?) Chancellor specifically refused to allow them to produce a report on his proposals is a major red flag. There's a difference between not asking for advice and actively suppressing that advice.
Fracking, whatever we think of it, was covered in her campaign, it was quite explicit that she intended to remove the ban.
I must have missed when her campaign was put to the nation in a General Election?
The Euro and the Yen, among others, have fallen against the dollar by comparable amounts to the GBP recently. Is that Truss' fault too?
It's not the amount of change but the volatility - the markets were/are clearly spooked and see the UK economy as rudderless. It doesn't take much to start a run on the Pound and we came perilously close to it.
 

Acfb

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Surely this is nonsense. Mordaunt is a lock-in for the next Tory leader, and she doesn't need to take power now when she's potentially in a position to win big in 2029. Having 5 years to shape the Tories will put her in a strong position, and you'd have to fancy Mordaunt's chances of winning a majority in any GE.

I think this is being a bit too kind to Penny Mordaunt (even if she is arguably personally less objectionable than most Tory MPs) as she had Leadsom running her campaign and she was being lined up to be her chancellor. Mordaunt is also by no means certain to hold Portsmouth North at the next election given it was Labour from 1997-2010.
 

jfollows

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BBC now reporting Kwarteng has been sacked (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63221738).

Kwarteng out as chancellor​

Kwasi Kwarteng is no longer chancellor, the BBC understands.
It comes amid speculation Truss will today announce a U-turn on parts of the mini-budget.
As a back-bench ex-Chancellor, will he keep quiet or will he cause problems for Liz Truss?

Also (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...et-liz-truss-corporation-tax-uk-politics-live):

Liz Truss expected to sack Kwasi Kwarteng ahead of corporation tax U-turn​


Pippa Crerar
Kwasi Kwarteng will be sacked as chancellor as Liz Truss tries to restore her political authority ahead of a U-turn on parts of her disastrous mini-budget later on Friday, according to sources.

A Downing Street source confirmed to the Guardian the prime minister intended to get Kwarteng to “carry the can” over her climbdown as she sought to calm the markets and the nerves of jittery Tory MPs.

Truss is meeting Kwarteng, previously her closest political ally and co-architect of her plan for growth, for crisis talks in Downing Street after he dashed back overnight from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington.

Whitehall insiders told the Guardian the pair held different views on how far the government should go in reversing key elements of its plan to steady the markets and placate anxious Conservative MPs.
 

MikeWM

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But it's a red flag when the government removes long-standing civil services precisely because ministers want to push through unworkable policies. And according to the PM, the mini budget wasn't government policy, but rather was all the work of the (ex?) Chancellor.

I'd agree that civil servants should warn about *unworkable* policies, but I don't see anything unworkable in the mini-budget. Undesireable, perhaps, but civil servants going against the wishes of their ministers isn't exactly a new thing. Tony Benn's diaries from the 1970s are very interesting on this very subject, for example.

As for Truss throwing Kwarteng under the bus, I'm sure we all see that as exactly that.

Indeed, it is not necessary. But the fact that the (ex?) Chancellor specifically refused to allow them to produce a report on his proposals is a major red flag. There's a difference between not asking for advice and actively suppressing that advice.

True, and I agree there was too much unnecessarily pushed into this 'mini-budget' that could and probably should have waited for a full budget a month or two later. Again, I don't see this as being a *crisis*, though, just poor politics.

I must have missed when her campaign was put to the nation in a General Election?

I'd agree that the 2019 manifesto says that 'we will not support fracking unless the science shows categorically that it can be done safely' (oh look, an early appearance of *the* science!). But governments do need to be able to change when the circumstances change, and certainly energy markets have changed considerably since that was written. I don't think we should have a GE every time anyone changes anything.

It's not the amount of change but the volatility - the markets were/are clearly spooked and see the UK economy as rudderless. It doesn't take much to start a run on the Pound and we came perilously close to it.

I'm deeply uncomfortable about the idea of the UK apparently being governed by unelected markets rather than elected politicians. That's not a party political point - the same issue rose its head at the prospect of a Corbyn government, with dire warnings then of a 'run on the pound'. Politicians have to be able to push through the policies they believe to be in the interest of the country, not just the markets, but it seems that's no longer possible. Everyone has to follow the same narrow neo-liberal globalist global consensus or they get punished. I don't believe this is a good thing at all.

To quote Tony Benn (again) in 1997
There are also other powers with which we have to deal. For example, in relation to the global economy, there is the growing power of Mr. Dow Jones, who gives orders to most people in the world with his industrial averages, which are drawn up long after we go to bed, and which are taken very seriously by the Chancellor.
 
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