East West Rail: Bedford - Cambridge will it ever get built?

[mwmbwls]

Your definition of ‘major’ differs from mine!

Improving the railway in Anglia - Network Rail

We’re carrying out a huge programme to increase the number of trains on time, reduce delays and improve connections into our cities and towns.

www.networkrail.co.uk

Updated to the 8th April 2022, this is Network Rail's to do list in the Anglia Region.

 

[Bald Rick]

Improving the railway in Anglia - Network Rail

We’re carrying out a huge programme to increase the number of trains on time, reduce delays and improve connections into our cities and towns.

www.networkrail.co.uk

Updated to the 8th April 2022, this is Network Rail's to do list in the Anglia Region.

With the exception of Ely - which isn’t happening by all accounts - where is the big programme of ’trackwork improvements’?

 

[JonathanH]

Improving the railway in Anglia - Network Rail

We’re carrying out a huge programme to increase the number of trains on time, reduce delays and improve connections into our cities and towns.

www.networkrail.co.uk

Updated to the 8th April 2022, this is Network Rail's to do list in the Anglia Region.

The key paragraph on that page is:

Following the COVID-19 outbreak, works programmes may be revised. The map will be updated once revised programmes have been confirmed.

It seems likely that most of the upgrade work will be cancelled, certainly anything substantial that isn't in the Government's 'Growth Plan'.

 

[BrianW]

The key paragraph on that page is:


It seems likely that most of the upgrade work will be cancelled, certainly anything substantial that isn't in the Government's 'Growth Plan'.

Indeed. April 2022. That's all just so very pre-Kwarteng Growth Plan.

 

[Dunnyrail]

St Neots is a population of 30k, so not a traffic destination.

The Bio Med campus is a pull, but is it *really* that much of a pull from Bedford / St Neots?

Cambourne is population 8000 + it needs to double or even treble in size to become a viable traffic point.

Actually St.Neots was 32500 in 2004, since then there have been sundry expansions in small doses around the Town including Loves Farm circa 1200 houses. Winteringham Farm now in full build mode, Loves Farm 2 about to start. As these have circa 3000 houses that could well add over 10k by yhe time they are finished. However it is generally accepted that Hail Weaton and the Paxtons come into the St.Neots realm though not population counts by Gov Agencies. Thus around 40k a cepted as the population around 2008 and likely 50k when current developments completed. Who knows what the number may be if ever EW comes to town if built, likely 60k, a not insignificant traffic provider for ant Railway. But then to powers that be think Roads will be the answer.

 

[A0]

Actually St.Neots was 32500 in 2004, since then there have been sundry expansions in small doses around the Town including Loves Farm circa 1200 houses. Winteringham Farm now in full build mode, Loves Farm 2 about to start. As these have circa 3000 houses that could well add over 10k by yhe time they are finished. However it is generally accepted that Hail Weaton and the Paxtons come into the St.Neots realm though not population counts by Gov Agencies. Thus around 40k a cepted as the population around 2008 and likely 50k when current developments completed. Who knows what the number may be if ever EW comes to town if built, likely 60k, a not insignificant traffic provider for ant Railway. But then to powers that be think Roads will be the answer.

But the question is whether people from St Neots want to travel to / from Cambridge. Spending billions building a railway line is fine - but if the demand for travel to the places it links doesn't exist, then it's not worth it.

Pre Covid, St Neots had a usage of about 1.3m - that's on a service which goes to Peterborough or Stevenage and London and is higher than the other stations heading south until you reach Hitchin.

To compare though - Flitwick station - which serves a much smaller town (c 13,000) plus Ampthill (c 13,000) gets a higher usage than St Neots.

Are the buses which currently serve St Neots going to Cambridge full ? Evidence suggests not judging by the fact the 905's off peak frequency is being reduced to hourly.

 

[Trainbike46]

But the question is whether people from St Neots want to travel to / from Cambridge. Spending billions building a railway line is fine - but if the demand for travel to the places it links doesn't exist, then it's not worth it.

Pre Covid, St Neots had a usage of about 1.3m - that's on a service which goes to Peterborough or Stevenage and London and is higher than the other stations heading south until you reach Hitchin.

To compare though - Flitwick station - which serves a much smaller town (c 13,000) plus Ampthill (c 13,000) gets a higher usage than St Neots.

Are the buses which currently serve St Neots going to Cambridge full ? Evidence suggests not judging by the fact the 905's off peak frequency is being reduced to hourly.

My understanding is that Stagecoach in the area is so short of drivers that many routes, including the 905, have to be reduced in frequency because there's no drivers to operate the full timetable

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Oct 2022 ==

So not really an indication of passenger numbers, to be honest

 

[Magdalia]

But the question is whether people from St Neots want to travel to / from Cambridge. Spending billions building a railway line is fine - but if the demand for travel to the places it links doesn't exist, then it's not worth it.

The demand is low at present, but will be much higher in the future, for travelling between the houses that haven't been built yet and the jobs that don't exist yet. Those jobs will be in the hospitals and laboratories that haven't been built yet, and in the start up businesses using repurposed retail space.

That needs to be by train, bus services won't work because there won't be enough drivers, and car won't work because there won't be enough road.

 

[gingerheid]

‘Just a vanity event’: Villagers lash out as East West Rail bids to woo Haslingfield

Campaigners brought a white elephant to the event.

www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk

Campaigners brought a white elephant with them

I understand why it's appealing for NIMBYs and BANANAs to argue that vital infrastructure projects aren't "necessary". It's a beautiful term. When you say something isn't necessary it sounds like it's something pointless that you shouldn't do, until of course you consider that nothing is "necessary"; even the survival of the human race.

But to develop this into an argument that East West Rail would be a white elephant... my goodness. When was the the last rail re-opening that didn't result in overcrowding?

 

[Basil Jet]

‘Just a vanity event’: Villagers lash out as East West Rail bids to woo Haslingfield

Campaigners brought a white elephant to the event.

www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk

I understand why it's appealing for NIMBYs and BANANAs to argue that vital infrastructure projects aren't "necessary". It's a beautiful term. When you say something isn't necessary it sounds like it's something pointless that you shouldn't do, until of course you consider that nothing is "necessary"; even the survival of the human race.

But to develop this into an argument that East West Rail would be a white elephant... my goodness. When was the the last rail re-opening that didn't result in overcrowding?

The Southbury Loop reopened in 1960, and I don't think it's ever been overcrowded.

 

[daodao]

But the question is whether people from St Neots [+ Bedford & points further west] want to travel to / from Cambridge. Spending billions building a railway line is fine - but if the demand for travel to the places it links doesn't exist, then it's not worth it.

Exactly. IMO, completing all the proposed EW Rail developments using existing lines/trackbeds from Bedford westwards (including the services to Aylesbury & possibly High Wycombe) should be prioritised over any mega-expensive extension east of Bedford.

That needs to be by train, bus services won't work because there won't be enough drivers, and car won't work because there won't be enough road.

There is enough road space outside Cambridge's urban core. The poor siting of Cambridge station is a significant hindrance to encouraging passenger rail traffic to it. Stagecoach's planned slashing of bus services in rural Cambridgeshire indicates that demand for public transport is poor outside the urban core. Cambridge's traffic congestion is best solved by enhancing the existing excellent park-and-ride bus services, and encouraging travellers from places like Cambourne/St.Neots/Bedford to drive to a park-and-ride facility on the outskirts of Cambridge and take a bus for the short hop into the city centre, which the railway station does not serve.

 

[Magdalia]

There is enough road space outside Cambridge's urban core.

But road space inside the urban core is very restricted, and that is where people want to go. There is not enough road space for the existing traffic, and no room for future growth.

Stagecoach's planned slashing of bus services in rural Cambridgeshire indicates that demand for public transport is poor outside the urban core.

No, it indicates that Stagecoach can't recruit drivers and are cutting the least profitable routes to concentrate on the most profitable Citi and Park and Ride services. Availability of drivers is the main constraint on expanding the local bus network, and that would include more Park and Ride.

park-and-ride facility on the outskirts of Cambridge and take a bus for the short hop into the city centre, which the railway station does not serve.

As I keep on pointing out, the old city centre is an irrelevance for the jobs market, it is only important for retail and tourism.

A lot of the jobs are close to the two, and soon to be three, railway stations. The area around the main station has been transformed in the last 10 years and now has lots of employment within walking distance. The Cambridge Biomedical Campus, where Cambridge South will be built, already has c20000 jobs and is heading towards 30000.

Park and Ride is only any use for commuting if it goes to where the jobs are, which it doesn't.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Oct 2022 ==

The Southbury Loop reopened in 1960, and I don't think it's ever been overcrowded.

From electrification until 1982 most Harlow/Bishops Stortford services ran via Southbury and would have been overcrowded. The Hertford East trains also ran via Southbury until the Lea Valley was electrified in 1969.

 

[Dunnyrail]

But the question is whether people from St Neots want to travel to / from Cambridge. Spending billions building a railway line is fine - but if the demand for travel to the places it links doesn't exist, then it's not worth it.

Pre Covid, St Neots had a usage of about 1.3m - that's on a service which goes to Peterborough or Stevenage and London and is higher than the other stations heading south until you reach Hitchin.

To compare though - Flitwick station - which serves a much smaller town (c 13,000) plus Ampthill (c 13,000) gets a higher usage than St Neots.

Are the buses which currently serve St Neots going to Cambridge full ? Evidence suggests not judging by the fact the 905's off peak frequency is being reduced to hourly.

Busses to Cambridge certainly very busy at peak hours. However since the service dumbed down and not running so late in the evening more now deserting the bus and using car. Black Cat to Caxton dueling of A428 at 1.5Billion would suggest a need from both Bedford and St.Neots for EW line.

 

[A0]

Busses to Cambridge certainly very busy at peak hours. However since the service dumbed down and not running so late in the evening more now deserting the bus and using car. Black Cat to Caxton dueling of A428 at 1.5Billion would suggest a need from both Bedford and St.Neots for EW line.

BIB - no, it does nothing of the sort. If you're in Bedford or St Neots and want to access the A14 eastwards to Norwich, Ipswich or the East Coast, you'll use the A428 because the alternative is going out of your way up the A1 to reach the A14.

It's also about safety - that road is carrying longer distance traffic, local traffic and from time to time slow moving farm traffic. That's a dangerous mix which leads to accidents. Whereas by dualling the road it improves road safety by allowing slower moving traffic to be passed safely and it will also see changes to all the local junctions which means traffic from those don't have the risk of pulling out into oncoming traffic.

Just because there is a well used road going from A to B does not mean that a railway would be similarly well used. A good example is the A50 between the M1 and Stoke - the railway was there for many years and was always lightly trafficked - the passenger traffic can be accommodated on 2 car DMUs virtually all the time. Yet the A50 was upgraded to dual carriageway in the late 1990s and is now well used - far more than the railway. Mainly because people *aren't* travelling between the centre of Derby and the centre of Stoke or Crewe, but are instead using it as part of a longer route e.g. to access the M6 northwards from points on the M1.

 

[A0]

As I keep on pointing out, the old city centre is an irrelevance for the jobs market, it is only important for retail and tourism.

Correct - and increasingly for 'day to day' retail it's becoming less and less important.

So whilst the newest of Cambridge's city centre shopping centres, the Grand Arcade, on the face of it is doing well, that's because it's a highish end, fashion led destination. You don't find the Apple store or a Tesla store or Pandora on every high street.

But the Grafton Centre, the main centre is apparently doing less well - that's because people who shop at Next, Primark, Clarks (i.e. the majority of people) who don't live in the city centre or even the city are looking at it and saying 'why do I want to spend ages getting in and being fleeced for parking' - let's go somewhere that's less faff to go to or are simply ordering on line.

 

[daodao]

As I keep on pointing out, the old city centre is an irrelevance for the jobs market, it is only important for retail and tourism.

A lot of the jobs are close to the two, and soon to be three, railway stations. The area around the main station has been transformed in the last 10 years and now has lots of employment within walking distance. The Cambridge Biomedical Campus, where Cambridge South will be built, already has c20000 jobs and is heading towards 30000.

Park and Ride is only any use for commuting if it goes to where the jobs are, which it doesn't.

Solution - provide new/additional Park & Ride services from the fringe of the urban area to the new centres of employment within the conurbation, if that is where a lot of the jobs are now situated.

 

[A0]

Exactly. IMO, completing all the proposed EW Rail developments using existing lines/trackbeds from Bedford westwards (including the services to Aylesbury & possibly High Wycombe) should be prioritised over any mega-expensive extension east of Bedford.

You won't get High Wycombe - that would almost certainly need expensive upgrades to the Aylesbury - Princes Risborough branch. ISTR the level crossing at North Lee Lane was one such issue which I think @The Planner cited ?

The question with Aylesbury - MK is "why". What does it actually do ? Yes, I get it provides a link from Aylesbury to Milton Keynes but so what ? Milton Keynes would benefit from that more than Aylesbury as that would be the direction of the traffic. So if you're thinking it would rejuvenate Aylesbury, I suspect you're wide of the mark.

 

[A0]

Solution - provide new/additional Park & Ride services from the fringe of the urban area to the new centres of employment within the conurbation, if that is where a lot of the jobs are now situated.

I think you need to look at a map - the Science Park is *right next* to the A14 - not sure a Park and Ride makes *any* difference to that. See map.

 

[Bald Rick]

When was the the last rail re-opening that didn't result in overcrowding?

Nearly all of them.

 

[daodao]

You won't get High Wycombe - that would almost certainly need expensive upgrades to the Aylesbury - Princes Risborough branch. ISTR the level crossing at North Lee Lane was one such issue which I think @The Planner cited ?

The question with Aylesbury - MK is "why". What does it actually do ? Yes, I get it provides a link from Aylesbury to Milton Keynes but so what ? Milton Keynes would benefit from that more than Aylesbury as that would be the direction of the traffic. So if you're thinking it would rejuvenate Aylesbury, I suspect you're wide of the mark.

Why would there be a problem with 1 tph from High Wycombe via Aylesbury and Bletchley to Milton Keynes in lieu of the existing High Wycombe-Aylesbury service?

I think you need to look at a map - the Science Park is *right next* to the A14 - not sure a Park and Ride makes *any* difference to that. See map.

Thanks for this information, but there appear to be other foci of mass employment in urban Cambridge outwith the city centre for which "park and ride" bus services may be appropriate.

 

[The Planner]

Why would there be a problem with 1 tph from High Wycombe via Aylesbury and Bletchley to Milton Keynes in lieu of the existing High Wycombe-Aylesbury service?

It would be a Marylebone to MK based on the current service. Which is doable as Chiltern are 99% the operators on E-W, but you cannot have two services over the PRA.

 

[cle]

It would be a Marylebone to MK based on the current service. Which is doable as Chiltern are 99% the operators on E-W, but you cannot have two services over the PRA.

It was - and then became downgraded over and over. If there was a west-facing bay at HW, it might be a good shout. I did read one document which had OOC bays as a potential terminus. Which makes more sense, as part of the 4tph planned for there - doubtful to eventuate but why not - but in all scenarios, it's 1tph between Princes Risborough and Aylesbury - which replaces today's. It's a shame that short stretch can't be upgraded a little more, I'm sure 2tph would be more popular, especially a faster London service to Aylesbury.

 

[mr_jrt]

It was - and then became downgraded over and over. If there was a west-facing bay at HW, it might be a good shout.

What's wrong with the bay at Princes Risborough?

 

[daodao]

What's wrong with the bay at Princes Risborough?

That might be operationally convenient, but Princes Risborough is not a significant destination itself.

 

[Brubulus]

Busses to Cambridge certainly very busy at peak hours. However since the service dumbed down and not running so late in the evening more now deserting the bus and using car. Black Cat to Caxton dueling of A428 at 1.5Billion would suggest a need from both Bedford and St.Neots for EW line.

Completely right, there is definetly a need to travel from Bedford/MK to Cambridge however the cost of the current plan is quite frankly, ridicuulous. A far simpler plan is a junction moving north onto the ECML from the cambridge flyover and then a single track route from Sandy to Bedford on the varsity line trackbed. This could probably sustain up to 2tph between Cambridge and Bedford along with a travel time competeive with drivng in the region of 50 minutes.

 

[Trainbike46]

Completely right, there is definetly a need to travel from Bedford/MK to Cambridge however the cost of the current plan is quite frankly, ridicuulous. A far simpler plan is a junction moving north onto the ECML from the cambridge flyover and then a single track route from Sandy to Bedford on the varsity line trackbed. This could probably sustain up to 2tph between Cambridge and Bedford along with a travel time competeive with drivng in the region of 50 minutes.

you're suggesting using ECML paths for an East-West Railway? that doesn't seem like a sensible way to use limited capacity?

 

[Bald Rick]

Completely right, there is definetly a need to travel from Bedford/MK to Cambridge however the cost of the current plan is quite frankly, ridicuulous. A far simpler plan is a junction moving north onto the ECML from the cambridge flyover and then a single track route from Sandy to Bedford on the varsity line trackbed. This could probably sustain up to 2tph between Cambridge and Bedford along with a travel time competeive with drivng in the region of 50 minutes.

You are suggesting two new flyovers over the ECML (one at Hitchin, and one at Sandy), plus rebuilding Bedford to enable 4tph to reverse, plus lots of extra capacity and level crossing work between Hitchin and Cambridge (as the line is at capacity), plus a new line from Sandy to Bedford that somehow avoids the businesses and homes in Sandy, Blunham and Bedford, and the School in Sandy… with lower capacity and a much longer journey time …is better value than the current proposal?

 

[gingerheid]

Nearly all of them.

Maybe Maryhill or Paisley Canal. Nothing recent!

Campaign concerns on overcrowding as Borders Railway growth continues – Press release 18 February 2019 | CAMPAIGN FOR BORDERS RAIL

The Campaign for Borders Rail (CBR) has again voiced concern regarding overcrowding on the Borders Railway

News Story Archive :: The Railways Archive

Archive of UK railways documents

www.railwaysarchive.co.uk

A new study has shown the number of people using the new Alloa rail link has exceeded all expectations.

Cops 'keep peace' between commuters 'packed like sardines' on Edinburgh train

COPS were forced to board an overcrowded morning train from Alloa to Edinburgh to keep the peace after passengers got rowdy. Passengers were “packed in like sardines” on the ScotRail se…

www.thescottishsun.co.uk

Cops forced to board overcrowded Edinburgh to Alloa train to keep peace between rowdy passengers ‘packed like sardines’
The overcrowding led to 'heightened tensions' between passengers by the time they had reached Stirling

Passengers criticise 'horrendous' conditions on the Ebbw Vale line

One woman said she actually threw up

www.walesonline.co.uk

Passengers are putting up with 'horrendous' conditions on the Ebbw Vale line, they say

The bias against rail means that the case for any recent lines has had to be so overwhelming that this is exactly what has immediately happened to said lines. To me this is the destiny of Cambridge to Bedford trains... if they are allowed to happen! If people are so desperate that they'll use the guided busway, what would they be like over an actual railway?

 

[Bald Rick]

Maybe Maryhill or Paisley Canal. Nothing recent!

Campaign concerns on overcrowding as Borders Railway growth continues – Press release 18 February 2019 | CAMPAIGN FOR BORDERS RAIL

News Story Archive :: The Railways Archive

Archive of UK railways documents

www.railwaysarchive.co.uk

Cops 'keep peace' between commuters 'packed like sardines' on Edinburgh train

COPS were forced to board an overcrowded morning train from Alloa to Edinburgh to keep the peace after passengers got rowdy. Passengers were “packed in like sardines” on the ScotRail se…

www.thescottishsun.co.uk

Passengers criticise 'horrendous' conditions on the Ebbw Vale line

One woman said she actually threw up

www.walesonline.co.uk

The bias against rail means that the case for any recent lines has had to be so overwhelming that this is exactly what has immediately happened to said lines. To me this is the destiny of Cambridge to Bedford trains... if they are allowed to happen! If people are so desperate that they'll use the guided busway, what would they be like over an actual railway?

very selective, well done. For example you report one train between Alloa and Edinburgh was overcrowded 3 1/2 years ago when the previous one had been cancelled.

can you show me regular* overcrowding on these lines? Or any on Aylesbury - Aylesbury Vale? Or Vale of Glamorgan? Or Larkhall? Or Airdrie Bathgate? Or Barking Riverside?

I find the bias against the guided busway almost comical. People aren’t ‘desperate’ to use it at all. Have you used it, or asked those who do?


* as in daily, where multiple trains have more than 10% standing.

 

[Trainbike46]

very selective, well done. For example you report one train between Alloa and Edinburgh was overcrowded 3 1/2 years ago when the previous one had been cancelled.

can you show me regular* overcrowding on these lines? Or any on Aylesbury - Aylesbury Vale? Or Vale of Glamorgan? Or Larkhall? Or Airdrie Bathgate? Or Barking Riverside?

I find the bias against the guided busway almost comical. People aren’t ‘desperate’ to use it at all. Have you used it, or asked those who do?


* as in daily, where multiple trains have more than 10% standing.

a better question might not be about overcrowding, but about the difference in observed passenger numbers after reopening compared to the predicted passenger numbers. Is there a consistent pattern in that difference? or is it just 'random' scatter (one line a bit under, another a bit over, etc.)?