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Russia invades Ukraine

Cloud Strife

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While I'm not naïve enough to think that there won't be instances of surrendering soldiers being killed by 'overenthusiastic' Ukrainian troops, everything I've seen so far suggests that the average Ukrainian soldier understands that most Russian troops don't want to be there, and don't want to fight. I don't expect to hear about systemic Ukrainian massacres when this war is over.

There is a point that we still don't know what exactly happened when Lyman was liberated. The Ukrainians are very very good at only telling the story that they want told, after all.

The uncertainty is best, of course. It makes it even more of a hostile environment if you don't know whether you'll get a chance to surrender or not, and it didn't escape my attention that we saw videos of wrecked columns/dead Russian troops alongside videos showing Russian troops surrendering.

And already Germany has pledged an anti-aircraft defence system. This is exactly the worst case scenario for Russia, and shows that they've just wasted a lot of missiles on achieving absolutely nothing.

Russians are boasting about these attacks today as being proof that the war has reached a new level, but from what we've seen of Russia's capabilities so far, it's likely that they've simply thrown everything at Ukraine in an attempt to make a statement. Now, if only the Kerch Bridge could be attacked again!
 
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DustyBin

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For some time I’ve thought Russia can only be brought properly to heel by a complete military defeat and a purge through death and prison sentences, a la Nuremberg. This is almost an impossible scenario and I’m finding it difficult to visualise how the war will end.

To (sort of) paraphrase Arthur Conan Doyle, I think at this point the war will end in a seemingly improbable manner. How exactly I have no idea, but regime change in Russia looks as likely as any other option. I can't see an "off ramp" at this point, I can't see a Russian military victory, and having formally annexed part of Ukraine, Putin can't simply withdraw his forces. Maybe a frozen conflict following military defeat in Ukraine is another possibility, but that takes us back to the question of whether Putin's regime can survive in such a scenario?
 

35B

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Assuming they take prisoners, of course.
If they don't, they descend towards the level of the Russian forces. That would breach the promises they've made to Russian soldiers, and (more seriously) lend support to the idea that there's no difference between the two armies.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

To (sort of) paraphrase Arthur Conan Doyle, I think at this point the war will end in a seemingly improbable manner. How exactly I have no idea, but regime change in Russia looks as likely as any other option. I can't see an "off ramp" at this point, I can't see a Russian military victory, and having formally annexed part of Ukraine, Putin can't simply withdraw his forces. Maybe a frozen conflict following military defeat in Ukraine is another possibility, but that takes us back to the question of whether Putin's regime can survive in such a scenario?
Putin drove through the constitutional change that made it illegal to forfeit land; in his autocracy, laws can be changed if he wants them to be.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, I hypothesised that post-Soviet Russia would have a lot of similarities to Weimar Germany - a former great power with no real history of democracy, collapsing in on itself but externally undefeated. Events over the last 30 years haven't disproved that.

I don't see an "off-ramp", because I don't believe that Russia would use it. Instead, what is required is military defeat of Russia leading to some form of armistice and (hopefully) peace treaty. The key part of this, though, is military defeat that compels Russian leaders to accept that they've lost the war, and have to change in response to that defeat.

The interesting question is about what happens within and around Putin's regime if this happens, and whether he can survive in office (or at all).
 
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DustyBin

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Putin drove through the constitutional change that made it illegal to forfeit land; in his autocracy, laws can be changed if he wants them to be.

True, but would he get away with it? It would be rather embarrassing to say the least.... That said, he does have some wriggle room here. Last week the Russians weren't clear as to what exactly they consider annexed, which is interesting!

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, I hypothesised that post-Soviet Russia would have a lot of similarities to Weimar Germany - a former great power with no real history of democracy, collapsing in on itself but externally undefeated. Events over the last 30 years haven't disproved that.

I don't see an "off-ramp", because I don't believe that Russia would use it. Instead, what is required is military defeat of Russia leading to some form of armistice and (hopefully) peace treaty. The key part of this, though, is military defeat that compels Russian leaders to accept that they've lost the war, and have to change in response to that defeat.

The interesting question is about what happens within and around Putin's regime if this happens, and whether he can survive in office (or at all).

I agree with all of this.
 

Class 33

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OK so you've read the Sun's take on it. Now for the actual news:

Putin will convene his national security Council for a meeting tomorrow. Like he does every Monday.

There is no evidence that he intends to use nukes. I won't say definitely not, in the same way I can't say he definitely won't strip naked and dance on the table at said meeting. Nothing is impossible.

I'd also like to draw your attention to the fact that the Sun last week said that Putin's Doomsday Plane (whatever that is) had taken off, and that Putin was also in a bunker in Siberia (when in fact he subsequently turned up in St Petersburg at a meeting)

@Class 33 you really really need to appreciate how the tabloid media operates. Sensationalist headlines to sell their mucky rags or to make you click on ads.

For your own sake, as others have said, stick to reputable sources of news:

BBC
Sky
CNN
The Guardian
Al Jazeera
France 24
The Telegraph

Do not pay any attention to:

The Daily Mail
The Daily Express
The Sun
The Mirror
Russia Today
Yahoo News

Edit: I've just dissected that Sun article. It's deliberately pulling together various unrelated aspects in order to cause fear. The "going nuclear" quote is from Lord Dannatt, who was not referring to the security council meeting, and has been trotting the same line since February. The quote about Putin holding a meeting just before the invasion. Well yes, as I said he holds one of these once a week.

What I am worried about is the Ukrainians who are likely to see a massive pummelling in response.

Good advice. I know I should avoid those websites you say to avoid(though never ever checked Russia Today). The Sun and The Express have been particularly disgraceful with their reporting about the war, including some VERY disturbing "Doomsday" type reporting. I can remember back around March not long after this disgraceful barbaric war started, there was a big headline article on The Sun website saying something like "DOOMSDAY IS NEAR: Russian general says we could wipe the British Isles off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds" and it was accompanied by large images of nuclear bombs exploding. Very frightening and disturbing to read. And disgraceful to include large images of nuclear bombs exploding in the article. Some people reading articles like that could have had heart attacks!

I'm trying my best from now to completely avoid checking out those particular websites. I have not checked ANY of those websites today.

Though I note Sky News are again reporting today that Putin using nuclear weapons is looking more likely now. Even though this morning they had an article on there mentioning "Three reasons why Putin won't use nuclear weapons". So conflicting info on there.

I knew though that today was going to be a bad day with that sick mad evil Putin doing yet more barbaric bombings on Ukraine. He has the sheer nerve to say "The Crimea Bridge bombing was a terrorist activity by Ukraine.". Yet look at all the much more terrorist activity he's done to Ukraine over the past 7 and a half months!!!!
 

bspahh

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Good advice. I know I should avoid those websites you say to avoid(though never ever checked Russia Today). The Sun and The Express have been particularly disgraceful with their reporting about the war, including some VERY disturbing "Doomsday" type reporting. I can remember back around March not long after this disgraceful barbaric war started, there was a big headline article on The Sun website saying something like "DOOMSDAY IS NEAR: Russian general says we could wipe the British Isles off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds" and it was accompanied by large images of nuclear bombs exploding. Very frightening and disturbing to read. And disgraceful to include large images of nuclear bombs exploding in the article. Some people reading articles like that could have had heart attacks!

I'm trying my best from now to completely avoid checking out those particular websites. I have not checked ANY of those websites today.
I can recommend this Chrome plugin https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/kitten-block/dicomhebenajaeajoaehlhebjjehjahd which redirects links to the Daily Mail and Daily Express to pictures of tea and kittens.
 

adc82140

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Good advice. I know I should avoid those websites you say to avoid(though never ever checked Russia Today). The Sun and The Express have been particularly disgraceful with their reporting about the war, including some VERY disturbing "Doomsday" type reporting. I can remember back around March not long after this disgraceful barbaric war started, there was a big headline article on The Sun website saying something like "DOOMSDAY IS NEAR: Russian general says we could wipe the British Isles off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds" and it was accompanied by large images of nuclear bombs exploding. Very frightening and disturbing to read. And disgraceful to include large images of nuclear bombs exploding in the article. Some people reading articles like that could have had heart attacks!

I'm trying my best from now to completely avoid checking out those particular websites. I have not checked ANY of those websites today.

Though I note Sky News are again reporting today that Putin using nuclear weapons is looking more likely now. Even though this morning they had an article on there mentioning "Three reasons why Putin won't use nuclear weapons". So conflicting info on there.

I knew though that today was going to be a bad day with that sick mad evil Putin doing yet more barbaric bombings on Ukraine. He has the sheer nerve to say "The Crimea Bridge bombing was a terrorist activity by Ukraine.". Yet look at all the much more terrorist activity he's done to Ukraine over the past 7 and a half months!!!!
Glad you're taking my advice. Yes the use of nuclear weapons is more likely than this time last year. But it has gone from really really really unlikely to really really unlikely.

Bear in mind also that the military pundits the likes of which Sky roll out are mostly ex army, and have no experience of political strategy. Their speciality is big bangs, and how to make them. Sky will pivot between more likely and unlikely use of nukes throughout he day, depending on which "expert" they have just spoken to.

The Express have been warning of World War 3 on a daily basis since the start of the millennium. I'm still waiting on the killer snowstorms they forecast last year.

Putin, by the way, is neither seriously ill (that was made up by the press as propaganda) nor is he mad. He likes to project the image of madness to unsettle the West. His comments today, about responding to future events with proportionate responses are normal, cold, Putin. Last week we saw crazy Putin, an act to try and unsettle his opponents. Remember he's ex KGB.
 

DustyBin

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Glad you're taking my advice. Yes the use of nuclear weapons is more likely than this time last year. But it has gone from really really really unlikely to really really unlikely.

Bear in mind also that the military pundits the likes of which Sky roll out are mostly ex army, and have no experience of political strategy. Their speciality is big bangs, and how to make them. Sky will pivot between more likely and unlikely use of nukes throughout he day, depending on which "expert" they have just spoken to.

The Express have been warning of World War 3 on a daily basis since the start of the millennium. I'm still waiting on the killer snowstorms they forecast last year.

Putin, by the way, is neither seriously ill (that was made up by the press as propaganda) nor is he mad. He likes to project the image of madness to unsettle the West. His comments today, about responding to future events with proportionate responses are normal, cold, Putin. Last week we saw crazy Putin, an act to try and unsettle his opponents. Remember he's ex KGB.

In terms of broadcast media, I find Sky News is the worst for doom mongering (I don't use the website). As you've pointed out they often run contradictory stories over the course of the day as well. The media in this country seem to take great pleasure in doing Putin's work for him!
 

Trackman

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In terms of broadcast media, I find Sky News is the worst for doom mongering (I don't use the website). As you've pointed out they often run contradictory stories over the course of the day as well. The media in this country seem to take great pleasure in doing Putin's work for him!
Do you know what, I think the same. I am going to sack them off. It's just not Ukraine as well, it's other things they report on as well.
 

Ediswan

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After the invasion, why did the capital change from being pronounced 'Kee-ev' to 'Keeve'?
Ukraine has long stated that the correct Romanised spelling is Kyiv. The most commonly quoted pronunciation is Kee-eve, or KEE-eve. Very definitely not anything ending in -yev.
 

Cloud Strife

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After the invasion, why did the capital change from being pronounced 'Kee-ev' to 'Keeve'?

It didn't. Kyiv (as in the Latin transliteration) has been in use since 1995, but English has been very slow to adapt to it, so you often saw Kyiv in writing and the Russian Kiev in speech. Even after 31 years, we still frequently hear "the" Ukraine too.

It's worth pointing out that we really should ditch the Russian versions of many places in Ukraine. It's not Chernobyl, it's Chornobyl. Not Odessa, but Odesa. We already ditched Lvov and Kharkov, so there's no reason not to do it for other places too.

But at the same time, it's worth remembering that Russian isn't really a foreign language in Ukraine. If you watch the videos of Ukrainian forces, they frequently communicate in Russian and not Ukrainian.
 

superalbs

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It didn't. Kyiv (as in the Latin transliteration) has been in use since 1995, but English has been very slow to adapt to it, so you often saw Kyiv in writing and the Russian Kiev in speech. Even after 31 years, we still frequently hear "the" Ukraine too.

It's worth pointing out that we really should ditch the Russian versions of many places in Ukraine. It's not Chernobyl, it's Chornobyl. Not Odessa, but Odesa. We already ditched Lvov and Kharkov, so there's no reason not to do it for other places too.

But at the same time, it's worth remembering that Russian isn't really a foreign language in Ukraine. If you watch the videos of Ukrainian forces, they frequently communicate in Russian and not Ukrainian.
Which makes it all the more ridiculous that Russia tries to justify its attacks in the name of 'protecting persecuted Russian speakers'.
 

Annetts key

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The attacks on and invasion of Ukraine by Russia are encouraging more Russian speaking Ukrainians to learn to speak, or switch to speaking the Ukrainian language. So not only are they killing people they claim to care about, but those who survive, will now hate Russia and possibly Russians.
 

gingerheid

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It looks like there's been a minor setback near Lyman :(. The orange was a Ukrainian blue yesterday :(
 

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Yew

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The attacks on and invasion of Ukraine by Russia are encouraging more Russian speaking Ukrainians to learn to speak, or switch to speaking the Ukrainian language. So not only are they killing people they claim to care about, but those who survive, will now hate Russia and possibly Russians.
I must admit, it feels like the attacks in Kyiv and Lviv have been counterproductive, serving only to harden Ukrainian will. A pedestrian bridge and a chidrens park seem like a good trade for the damage we see on the Kerch Bridge.

If Russia wants to keep it's annexed territories now is the time to dig in the frontlines, and take minimal action to cause international ire - it's going to be a long winter, and they can only hope that the west gets bored of supporting Ukraine without lots of headlines about how nasty the Russians are. I'm struggling to work out if these attacks are a reaction of anger from Putin, or a signifier of the pressure he is under at home.
 

DerekC

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There was a bit of speculation here about whether it was really credible for a single truck bomb to have caused several spans iof the Kerch road bridge to collapse, or whether it was a Russian cover-up story. New Civil Engineer explains how the construction of the road deck in four-span sections, each section supported on a continuous pair of steel beams, could cause exactly that to happen. Access to the article is restricted so I have quoted all of it below.

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/how-the-crimean-bridge-explosion-caused-multiple-spans-to-collapse-11-10-2022/?eea=MkZDTW54Um1ETHZ4OWV2OFEyV1ZQLzM0UElrMFo4LzVEZG1VUzJoZks1ND0=&utm_source=acs&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CONE_NCE_EDI_ALL_MORNING_111022&deliveryName=DM83934

How the Crimean Bridge explosion caused multiple spans to collapse​

11 OCT, 2022 BY ROB HAKIMIAN

A structural engineer from the University of Sheffield has explained why an explosion on the Crimean Bridge caused such a catastrophic collapse along the structure.
This weekend’s explosion on the Crimean Bridge, which connects Krasnodar in Russia with Kerch in Crimea, saw several spans of the bridge plummet into the water.
University of Sheffield department of civil engineering blast and impact dynamics research associate Andrew Barr said that this was because the spans were connected by a single beam.
Destruction of the 17km bridge, which is in fact two separate but parallel bridges carrying road and rail, occurred at around 6am local time on Saturday. Footage shows a huge fireball erupting on the road bridge, engulfing the whole road and some of the train bridge. Subsequent images have laid bare the extent of the damage, which extends about five spans on one side of the road bridge with three ending up in the water.
“The road section of the affected part of the Crimean Bridge has a composite slab orthotropic deck, supported on 3.2m deep steel plate girders over the 64m span between its concrete piers,” Barr said. “An important detail in understanding the extent of the damage to the bridge, with three visibly collapsed spans, is that these are not individual 64m sections. Instead, the spans are grouped together in sets of four, formed from a continuous beam which passes over the tops of the piers.”
Barr added that the continuous nature of the beams means that when the explosion caused the deck to fail and collapse into the water it pulled on the entirety of the beam and the bridge deck from both sides downwards with it.

“It appears that the explosion occurred near the centre of one of the bridge spans, and was sufficiently large or shaped in such a way as to cause a complete failure of the deck,” he said. “This created two new cantilevered sections of deck, which could not support their own weight and buckled over their supports. As these sections of deck fell into the water, potentially also provided with significant additional momentum from the explosive loading, they will have pulled on the surviving spans on either side.”
Between each beam there are gaps where expansion joints are inserted to allow the surface to expand and contract depending on the weather. The tensile and flexural load could therefore not pass through the expansion joints, causing the ends of the four-span beam to be displaced towards the damaged area, Barr explained. This wrenched the deck away from the bearings, causing a failure across four spans. While one span remained atop its piers, the other three collapsed into the water.
“The surviving intermediate span still stands, but has likely suffered significant damage near the zones where the adjacent spans have buckled, as well as being unseated from its bearings,” he added.
Despite there being theories about the cause of the explosion, neither the footage nor the images of the blast damage are conclusive as to whether the blast occurred above or below the deck, Barr said. “Some clues such as the adjacent road surface being blackened and its cantilevered wing sections appearing to be bent downwards may appear to favour a detonation on top of the deck, but ultimately the interacting pressure waves created around a bridge structure during an explosion are very complex,” he explained. “It would require a careful local investigation of the damaged bridge to unpick what has happened.”
The entirety of the four spans on the damaged beam will need to be replaced. The connecting span seems largely intact and could continue in use, but it might have suffered some damage when the connecting deck pulled away from it as it fell into the water. Only closer inspection and metallurgical sampling will reveal the extent of repair needed on it.

There was a tanker train adjacent to the explosion on the rail bridge, which was partly engulfed by the explosion. This caused fuel within the train to ignite and it remained burning for several hours, with fire spreading across the tankers and dripping down onto the rail bridge, melting the steel sections of the structure, including weakening of the girders. Images show burns on the concrete piers, which may also have been weakened, potentially making its reinforcement more susceptible to corrosion, Barr said. This will also need to be further examined by investigators.
Russia has reported that traffic has now resumed across the side of the Crimean Bridge that did not collapse. It is unclear the extent of safety inspection carried out on the bridge before allowing cars and buses to resume use, with head of Crimea Sergey Askyonov admitting that it still needs “to undergo the full inspection procedure”.
While it is likely safe, reopening it this soon seems to be an attempt at a show of strength from Russia. “The low weight of this traffic is less likely to instigate a further collapse, but allowing any use of the bridge before a detailed assessment of the structure has been carried out is very unusual,” Barr said. “It is indicative of the intense political pressure for the bridge to be seen as operational.”
The rail bridge does not appear to have resumed use. Floating cranes have been pictured lifting the burnt tanker train off of the track.
 
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DustyBin

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I must admit, it feels like the attacks in Kyiv and Lviv have been counterproductive, serving only to harden Ukrainian will. A pedestrian bridge and a chidrens park seem like a good trade for the damage we see on the Kerch Bridge.

I think you’re right. It’s not really surprising either; targeting civilians tends to have this effect!

If Russia wants to keep it's annexed territories now is the time to dig in the frontlines, and take minimal action to cause international ire - it's going to be a long winter, and they can only hope that the west gets bored of supporting Ukraine without lots of headlines about how nasty the Russians are.

If (and it’s a big if) Russia can establish a defensive line within Ukraine, that would be a “good” result from Putin’s perspective. It would buy time and as you say there’s the (very) small possibility of the West losing interest. In reality this is clutching at straws, but that’s all Putin can do at this point.

It’s worth noting as well that Russia would at some point have to mount a significant offensive to capture all of the “annexed” territory, which I really (really!) can’t see them being able to do. Ultimately the question Putin needs to be asking himself is “how do I survive defeat?” as it’s coming one way or another.

I'm struggling to work out if these attacks are a reaction of anger from Putin, or a signifier of the pressure he is under at home.

I’d suggest moreso the latter. The current situation is pleasing to neither the nutters nor the moderates, but it’s probably the former who are of immediate concern to Putin.
 

Gloster

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There have been suggestions that it was a boat bomb. Not only was a similar boat found in the area a few days before, but a video on the BBC site shows what could be the bow of a such a device under the bridge immediately before the explosion. It was explained that bridge spans are primarily stressed for downward forces and to a lesser extent for horizontal ones, but not for upward ones, such as an explosion underneath.

Source: Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion? in the War in Ukraine section of the BBC website.
 

uglymonkey

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I have a student, who has preexisting MH issues.She has a Ukrainian Mother and a Russian Father. What she is going through at the present time doesn't bare thinking about.
 

najaB

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She has a Ukrainian Mother and a Russian Father. What she is going through at the present time doesn't bare thinking about.
This isn't uncommon, as the two largest Republics in the USSR there was a lot of internal migration between the two.
 

Ianigsy

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I was speaking to a friend whose husband is Georgian. One of his Ukrainian student friends died of a heart attack a few weeks after being evacuated to the country and a Russian friend has been subject to the latest call up,in spite of being a middle aged academic.

Presumably both sides have measures in place to prevent any fifth columnists from infiltrating their conscript forces.
 

Bletchleyite

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I was speaking to a friend whose husband is Georgian. One of his Ukrainian student friends died of a heart attack a few weeks after being evacuated to the country and a Russian friend has been subject to the latest call up,in spite of being a middle aged academic.

Presumably both sides have measures in place to prevent any fifth columnists from infiltrating their conscript forces.

The likelihood of being shot by your comrades probably deals with that.
 

Cloud Strife

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Presumably both sides have measures in place to prevent any fifth columnists from infiltrating their conscript forces.

Ukraine has been doing rather serious vetting of their forces since the start of the war, to the point where they're now actually removing people from service. Russia on the other hand, who knows.

I have a student, who has preexisting MH issues.She has a Ukrainian Mother and a Russian Father. What she is going through at the present time doesn't bare thinking about.

If they live in Ukraine, it's likely that the Russian parent is siding with Ukraine. I have quite a few friends in a similar situation, and their parents have all renounced Russian citizenship and taken Ukrainian citizenship.

Belgorod's energy transmission system was whacked today, which points at exactly what I've been saying: Ukraine will simply give them as good as they get.

It looks like Belarus has been handing over supplies to Russia today, including tanks and ammo. Is Russia really in such a poor state that they need to rely on Belarusian equipment because they haven't got anything else left?

Apparently 20 out of 28 cruise missiles have been shot down today. If this is true, then it looks like we'll see the same thing as we've seen throughout this war: Russia will throw everything at Ukraine, Ukraine will learn to deal with it, and then they'll strike back. The only intriguing thing is that Belarus is now allegedly full of Russian conscripts. Could they be thinking about another attack on Kyiv, ridiculous as it sounds?
 

adc82140

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I think they want to force them to draw Ukranian troops away from the Eastern front in order to protect Kyiv.
 

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