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Russia invades Ukraine

Giugiaro

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Meanwhile I'm wondering what'll happen first: Putin's spirit break into nuclear whac-a-mole, or Ki Jong-un doing a nuclear test.

Whatever happens, it will piss off China.
 
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DustyBin

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Agreed. I'm expecting missiles hitting Ukranian cities, not an ICBM.

It looks like you were correct unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it!). Predictable really; moan about “terrorism” and then fire missiles into the centre of Kyiv, and seemingly other Ukrainian cities.
 

Giugiaro

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It looks like you were correct unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it!).

Typical Hitler move. When Berlin was bombed during WWII, Nazi Germany diverted its bombing of Britain from key strategic targets to basically just London.

The RAF was quick to get back on its foot, and the rest is history.
 

Cloud Strife

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It looks like you were correct unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it!). Predictable really; moan about “terrorism” and then fire missiles into the centre of Kyiv, and seemingly other Ukrainian cities.

I am actually cautiously optimistic here. If this is all Russia can do, then it's clear that they don't have the weapons or the ability to do anything significant.

If they had unleashed 100+ missiles at Kyiv this morning, we would be discussing the possibility of Ukraine surrendering on the current front lines. But we haven't, and these missiles are nowhere near enough to force Ukraine into backing down.

Attacking civilian targets is par for the course, but Russia really doesn't seem to understand that Ukraine will use this to get even more weapons, including longer range weapons.

Now the calls to supply Ukraine with a decent missile defence system will intensify, making it even harder for Russia. A typical own goal, if you ask me.
 

johncrossley

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General mobilisation: the most likely if the current mobilisation fails. However, they don't have the equipment or the structures to mobilise so many people, and if the current mobilised personnel get chopped down (and they will!), then no-one is going to want to go near Ukraine.

Some people on this thread said earlier that avoiding the draft is wrong.
 

adc82140

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I am actually cautiously optimistic here. If this is all Russia can do, then it's clear that they don't have the weapons or the ability to do anything significant.

If they had unleashed 100+ missiles at Kyiv this morning, we would be discussing the possibility of Ukraine surrendering on the current front lines. But we haven't, and these missiles are nowhere near enough to force Ukraine into backing down.

Attacking civilian targets is par for the course, but Russia really doesn't seem to understand that Ukraine will use this to get even more weapons, including longer range weapons.

Now the calls to supply Ukraine with a decent missile defence system will intensify, making it even harder for Russia. A typical own goal, if you ask me.
This will seriously have dented Russia's missile stockpile. And according to (unverified) reports, over half were shot down. (41 out of 75). What they need is a version of Israel's Iron Dome system to protect the major cities. Providing longer range weapons isn't necessary. They can do plenty of damage with what they've got already. The aim isn't to attack Russia within its internationally recognised borders. The aim is to rout them from what they've annexed.
 

Cloud Strife

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This will seriously have dented Russia's missile stockpile. And according to (unverified) reports, over half were shot down. (41 out of 75). What they need is a version of Israel's Iron Dome system to protect the major cities. Providing longer range weapons isn't necessary. They can do plenty of damage with what they've got already. The aim isn't to attack Russia within its internationally recognised borders. The aim is to rout them from what they've annexed.

Beat me to it. They've wasted a lot of expensive and difficult to procure missiles on this attack, and yet the relatively primitive air defences have intercepted a substantial amount of them. It's even arguable that this is showing Russia's weaknesses, because they haven't managed to bring down a single bridge.

It seems that they haven't hit anything of military value, which is just insane.

Longer range weapons would be useful for one reason: to rip apart Russian forces anywhere within Ukrainian territory. Taking out Russian military targets in Crimea freely would be very helpful when persuading Russians that the war is futile.
 

ainsworth74

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Some people on this thread said earlier that avoiding the draft is wrong.
Avoiding the draft when it's your nation being invaded and fighting for its very existence is questionable at best. Certainly even if someone was a conscientious objector I'd expect them to contribute to the war effort if/when called up even if they didn't fight on the front lines.

Avoiding the draft when your nation is prosecuting an illegal war, butchering civilians and threatening the use of nuclear weapons against anyone who intervenes is very different kettle of fish.
 

AlterEgo

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Some people on this thread said earlier that avoiding the draft is wrong.
Nobody said that Russian soldiers avoiding the draft for a fascist, ethnic, expeditionary war was morally wrong.

You can always DM a mod for the locked “draft” thread to be reopened if you want to receive another tranche of criticism for your viewpoints about how you’d flee Britain if it was attacked instead of defending your home, but you know full well the points being discussed are quite different.
 

Bletchleyite

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Avoiding the draft when it's your nation being invaded and fighting for its very existence is questionable at best. Certainly even if someone was a conscientious objector I'd expect them to contribute to the war effort if/when called up even if they didn't fight on the front lines.

Avoiding the draft when your nation is prosecuting an illegal war, butchering civilians and threatening the use of nuclear weapons against anyone who intervenes is very different kettle of fish.

Totally agreed. Anyone refusing to fight in Russia's invasion is taking a fairly brave, moral line. Whereas anyone in Ukraine refusing to fight for their own country's survival is in a very different moral position.
 

Giugiaro

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It seems that they haven't hit anything of military value, which is just insane.

As I've mentioned, Putin is acting just like Hitler, and demanded the bombing of Kyiv out of spite, and not for strategic reasons.

It also shows that Hitler Putin is directly involved in deciding when and where to bomb. Any civilian killed in Ukraine can, and should, be directly attributed to him.
 

Bletchleyite

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As I've mentioned, Putin is acting just like Hitler, and demanded the bombing of Kyiv out of spite, and not for strategic reasons.

It also shows that Hitler Putin is directly involved in deciding when and where to bomb. Any civilian killed in Ukraine can, and should, be directly attributed to him.

Yes. Like Germany in WW II, it's important for us to be clear that we're ready to resume all relations with Russia if (a) the war stops, and (b) he is removed and replaced with someone who is a proper democratically-elected president and not a tyrant. We have a problem with him, not with Russia and its people.
 

najaB

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Yes. Like Germany in WW II, it's important for us to be clear that we're ready to resume all relations with Russia if (a) the war stops, and (b) he is removed and replaced with someone who is a proper democratically-elected president and not a tyrant. We have a problem with him, not with Russia and its people.
Much like Germany in WWII, it's not just Putin but his enablers as well. Many of the people who are currently sanctioned also need to be removed from their positions of power and authority.
 

AlterEgo

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Much like Germany in WWII, it's not just Putin but his enablers as well. Many of the people who are currently sanctioned also need to be removed from their positions of power and authority.
For some time I’ve thought Russia can only be brought properly to heel by a complete military defeat and a purge through death and prison sentences, a la Nuremberg. This is almost an impossible scenario and I’m finding it difficult to visualise how the war will end.
 

Bletchleyite

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Much like Germany in WWII, it's not just Putin but his enablers as well. Many of the people who are currently sanctioned also need to be removed from their positions of power and authority.

That too, yes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

For some time I’ve thought Russia can only be brought properly to heel by a complete military defeat and a purge through death and prison sentences, a la Nuremberg. This is almost an impossible scenario and I’m finding it difficult to visualise how the war will end.

I can't see it ending without the death of Putin.
 

johncrossley

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Avoiding the draft when it's your nation being invaded and fighting for its very existence is questionable at best. Certainly even if someone was a conscientious objector I'd expect them to contribute to the war effort if/when called up even if they didn't fight on the front lines.

Avoiding the draft when your nation is prosecuting an illegal war, butchering civilians and threatening the use of nuclear weapons against anyone who intervenes is very different kettle of fish.

So it is just the luck of the draw whether you happen to be born or have a nationality of a country that is being attacked or one doing the attacking.
 

Bletchleyite

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So it is just the luck of the draw whether you happen to be born or have a nationality of a country that is being attacked or one doing the attacking.

A lot of things in terms of how fortunate you will be in life are accidents of birth.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

But it won't magically end with the death of Putin either.

Indeed it won't. Though it might, depending on what sort of situation results in his death.
 

hst43102

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So it is just the luck of the draw whether you happen to be born or have a nationality of a country that is being attacked or one doing the attacking.
Just like it's just 'luck' whether you happen to be born in a Ukrainian village that gets bombed?
 

najaB

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For some time I’ve thought Russia can only be brought properly to heel by a complete military defeat and a purge through death and prison sentences, a la Nuremberg. This is almost an impossible scenario and I’m finding it difficult to visualise how the war will end.
Is it really up to us (or anyone) to "bring Russia to heel"? It's one thing to say that they need to participate in the world order in accordance with the rules of the UN, but they can be as contrary and objectionable as they want to be while doing so. What they mustn't do any more is attempt to enforce their national policy by unprovoked military action against third nations.

Probably good advice for us as well.
 

Fragezeichnen

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Regardless of whether it is a result of internal or external action, for the sake of the people of Russia I would hope that they have in the future the opportunity to vote in free and fair elections for a government which will govern in the best interests of the population.

I don't have much hope though. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the KGB had a number of secret projects funded with foreign currency which they were unwilling to see shut down. Up pops former KGB officer Putin in St Petersburg, and suddenly milliions of dollars meant to be spent on food aid dissapeared without trace.

I suspect the situation is similar to country which repeatadly appears to head towards democracy before returning to a military dictatorship. Regardless of who may appear to have power, in the background is a group of powerful people who might allow the country to flirt with true democracy, but in the end they will step in if there is any danger of the "wrong" candidate winning.
 

Bletchleyite

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Regardless of whether it is a result of internal or external action, for the sake of the people of Russia I would hope that they have the opportunity to vote in free and fair elections for a government which will govern in the best interests of the population.

I think the thing about Russia is that like the US it's just massive. So those who live in it don't concern themselves with outside of it, by and large. Small countries like the UK are far more international-looking (give or take Brexit).
 

AlterEgo

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Is it really up to us (or anyone) to "bring Russia to heel"? It's one thing to say that they need to participate in the world order in accordance with the rules of the UN, but they can be as contrary and objectionable as they want to be while doing so. What they mustn't do any more is attempt to enforce their national policy by unprovoked military action against third nations.

Probably good advice for us as well.
Agreed - that’s what I meant.
 

brad465

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For some time I’ve thought Russia can only be brought properly to heel by a complete military defeat and a purge through death and prison sentences, a la Nuremberg. This is almost an impossible scenario and I’m finding it difficult to visualise how the war will end.
I wouldn't be surprised if a WW1-style ending from Russia/USSR perspective is how it ends, i.e., they leave/cease fighting in Ukraine but a civil war/revolution breaks out in Russia itself, so while the war in Ukraine ends, war involving Russia doesn't for a while longer. It definitely won't end with a peace settlement while either Putin or a similar figure is at the helm, plenty of treaties since 2014 have shown their untrustworthiness.

I think the thing about Russia is that like the US it's just massive. So those who live in it don't concern themselves with outside of it, by and large. Small countries like the UK are far more international-looking (give or take Brexit).
I think size of the economy and how it affects the Government's priorities is more of a factor. Countries in the G7/G20 are effectively competing against each other for the best GDP/international standing (even though they are generally friendly), so give a strong international focus. Smaller countries economically (often also geographically but not always) do not have this clout/ability, so their Governments will have to show a stronger focus to their domestic citizens because they cannot get away with a dominant international focus. This is why in effect the G7/20 might be the world's richest countries, but they don't necessarily have the best quality of life beyond a very small group of very rich people.
 

Cloud Strife

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One summary claims:
83 missiles launched, 45 intercepted
17 Iranian kamikaze drones launched, 9 intercepted.

This is not a great result for Russia, all things considered. Had they attacked Kyiv with substantial numbers, it might have been a different story.

It looks bad, but really, what has Russia gained here? It's like the way that the Serbs wasted huge amounts of time and effort on shelling Sarajevo rather than on actually winning the war in Bosnia.

But from a Russian conscript point of view, now is the time to be very, very afraid. More and more equipment will come to the front lines, and that equipment will tear them apart in the meat grinder. They have no chance against a well equipped Ukrainian Army who will want blood, and unlike earlier in the war, they have no reason to take prisoners.
 

TheEdge

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But from a Russian conscript point of view, now is the time to be very, very afraid. More and more equipment will come to the front lines, and that equipment will tear them apart in the meat grinder. They have no chance against a well equipped Ukrainian Army who will want blood, and unlike earlier in the war, they have no reason to take prisoners.

I don't think Ukraine can afford to go down the no quarter asked or given and war crime road.

At the moment they have the moral high ground in every sense. If they loose that then supplies from NATO will be at risk of drying up, especially if it's proper war crimes.

Also if they accept surrender unwilling conscripts will be more likely to lay down arms than if it's a fight to the death situation. It's also worthy of note Ukraine has found a loophole in Russians POW pay rules. If you surrender out of choice you are not eligible for POW pay from Russia. So Ukrainian troops are very quick to mask surrendering troops so it's impossible for Russia go prove they surrendered from choice from video. Makes people more willing to lay down arms.
 

najaB

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At the moment they have the moral high ground in every sense. If they loose that then supplies from NATO will be at risk of drying up, especially if it's proper war crimes.
They have been given an extremely short leash from the USA (and, no doubt other NATO countries) where treatment of prisoners is concerned.
 

adc82140

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Various news outlets are currently reporting that the German Embassy in Kyiv has been hit. Let's nip this one in the bud. It's the building which once held some offices of the German Consulate. It has been vacant since February.
 

najaB

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Assuming they take prisoners, of course.
While I'm not naïve enough to think that there won't be instances of surrendering soldiers being killed by 'overenthusiastic' Ukrainian troops, everything I've seen so far suggests that the average Ukrainian soldier understands that most Russian troops don't want to be there, and don't want to fight. I don't expect to hear about systemic Ukrainian massacres when this war is over.
 

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