Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[NorthOxonian]

JRM could be in big trouble in the strange North East Somerset seat at the next General Election. The seat was only created in time for the 2010 election, and its weird boundaries seemed to have been created with a Tory victory in mind. It partly took in the previous Wansdyke seat, which had returned a Labour MP. He contested the new seat and only lost to JRM by a little under 5,000 votes. Why JRM should be worried, apart from the obvious, is that he polled almost the same number of votes in the 2017 and 2019 elections, but his majority over Labour and LibDem combined was approx 6,000 in 2017 but only 2,000 in 2019. The LibDems put in a particularly strong performance in 2019, and the new unitary Somerset Council went to them in the May local elections. As long as Labour agree 'to do a Honiton' in the seat, I foresee it joining neighbouring Bath as a LibDem gain. Surely we won't have to wait for a possible January 2025 date to rid ourselves of these jokers!!

I can't see Labour agreeing to that; they are still second place in North East Somerset, and on paper it looks more Labour-friendly than Lib Dem-friendly. The Somerset coalfield (Midsomer Norton, Radstock, Paulton) can still elect Labour councillors locally and accounts for a fairly large part of JRM's seat - historically voters there will be why Wansdyke returned a Labour MP. Places like Keynsham and the rural areas around Bath might be more reasonable prospects for the Lib Dems but I think they'd struggle to ever win NES as it currently stands.

Of course, boundary changes render this moot. There will be a new Keynsham constituency at the general election (which looks to me much safer Conservative than the current NES) which will comprise most of JRM's current seat along with places like Bitton which are in Kingswood now. The more interesting new seat will be Frome which combines the coalfield area with a reasonably large market town which is becoming more and more like Bristol and Bath - Labour should be able to win this if they campaign there.

 

[Busaholic]

The i are reporting a plot by senior Tories to try and oust Truss and get Sunak in as a caretaker PM:

Senior Tories plot to install Rishi Sunak as caretaker PM to prevent election meltdown

Ex-ministers want to oust Liz Truss and anoint a leader in a 'coronation' to get the economy back on track and give the Tories a better chance of holding seats at the next election

inews.co.uk

This would be a repeat of Michael Howard replacing Ian Duncan Smith as Conservative leader in 2003 without a leadership election. Howard did, of course, then continue the Tories' losing streak in the 2005 General Election. The largest constraint, I suggest, is the personal antipathy shown towards Sunak by those MPs (and constituency associations) who still hanker after the disgraced blond.

 

[XAM2175]

There's no point in the government spending lots of money on telling the population things a five-year-old should be able to work out for themselves. If Truss is going to treat us like adults as opposed to idiots that need continually prodding or nudging, that's a big plus in my opinion.

Oh yes, she's not going to tell the public to live their lives...

Personally I think people are better than that, and on the whole are mostly capable of making sensible decisions, without needing detailed government instructions, nudges or regulations about every tiny detail of their lives.

... because of course she has no need to, when the ESO can forcibly disconnect consumers instead. But maybe that looks different when viewed through the prism of libertarian paranoia?

 

[Typhoon]

I'm moving to Rossendale if it's 30k a week.

I found that interesting too. I looked up my constituency and it is lower than that of Rossendale and Darwen (and you can see where I live; it is time we were Levelled Up).

Stats from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-data-wages/

I should have probably included the notes (if I had read them)

• Median pay for full-time workers is the point at which half of full-time workers earn more and half less.
• Estimates are for April 2021 and are for employee jobs only.
• Figures are subject to some uncertainty, as they come from a survey which only includes a limited number of people in each local area.
• Figures show median earnings for people living in the constituency (rather than people whose workplace is in the constituency) – some people may travel in or out of the constituency to work.

The third is probably the most telling! Still, even if they are different, Mr Berry MP will still be nowhere near median employee

 

[SuspectUsual]

There's no point in the government spending lots of money on telling the population things a five-year-old should be able to work out for themselves. If Truss is going to treat us like adults as opposed to idiots that need continually prodding or nudging, that's a big plus in my opinion.

Did you also disagree with campaigns to stop people smoking, make them wear seatbelts whilst driving etc etc?

 

[Typhoon]

Did you also disagree with campaigns to stop people smoking, make them wear seatbelts whilst driving etc etc?

Interesting headline in today's Daily Mirror.

"Booster jab crisis" is the headline on The Daily Mirror. It says just one-in-five over-50s in England has had a Covid-19 jab as part of the autumn booster programme. It reports that cases of the virus are now highest in the over-70s, and says there are fears of a deadly "twindemic" of flu and coronavirus infections this winter.

I don't remember seeing much publicity about it, I don't know about you? Sometimes we just need a reminder. My flu jab is later today, I had an invite from the Surgery. Sure, I knew about it, but it was the reminder that spurred me into action. And reading this thread reminded me to turn the printer off, it had been on standby. Probably only a few pence but every penny ...

Sometimes the campaigns are just as effective with others, not just the targets. The Christmas Drink and Drive campaign may influence others to refuse a lift home with a drunk. I, personally, would have thought that it was in their interest for us to cut back as I understood they were subsidising every unit of electricity/ gas we use (do we still have therms*).

* - anyone else remember Mr Therm?

 

[RichJF]

Good for Truss (though probably she'll u-turn tomorrow...)

There's no point in the government spending lots of money on telling the population things a five-year-old should be able to work out for themselves. If Truss is going to treat us like adults as opposed to idiots that need continually prodding or nudging, that's a big plus in my opinion.

There seem very close echoes of the media pressure we saw over covid here. Once again, there is a massive demand for the Government to tell us, in great detail, what we should and shouldn't be doing, which directly implies that people will act irresponsibly if they're not instructed by central authority. Personally I think people are better than that, and on the whole are mostly capable of making sensible decisions, without needing detailed government instructions, nudges or regulations about every tiny detail of their lives.

And I suppose if we do actually get blackouts you'll still be saying it was a good thing not to suggest how to reduce usage & avoid the aforementioned blackouts?

There's nothing wrong with some advice. They're not coming to take your rights away! I never understand why some are so vehemently against an email, flyer or TV advert suggesting how you can save money or avoid mandatory blackouts!

 

[AM9]

And I suppose if we do actually get blackouts you'll still be saying it was a good thing not to suggest how to reduce usage & avoid the aforementioned blackouts?

There's nothing wrong with some advice. They're not coming to take your rights away! I never understand why some are so vehemently against an email, flyer or TV advert suggesting how you can save money or avoid mandatory blackouts!

For conservative supporters, it highlights that despite over 12 years in continuous power, their party's abject failure to:

maintain adequate gas storage in the UK​

to actively improve insulation in the abysmally poor UK's housing stock and​

be seen to be on the side of those in need.​

As the party slides into complete disarray, it must be tempting for them just to cover their ears and hide, pretending that it is just a nasty dream.

 

[jfollows]

Interesting headline in today's Daily Mirror.
"Booster jab crisis" is the headline on The Daily Mirror. It says just one-in-five over-50s in England has had a Covid-19 jab as part of the autumn booster programme. It reports that cases of the virus are now highest in the over-70s, and says there are fears of a deadly "twindemic" of flu and coronavirus infections this winter.

I don't remember seeing much publicity about it, I don't know about you? Sometimes we just need a reminder. My flu jab is later today, I had an invite from the Surgery. Sure, I knew about it, but it was the reminder that spurred me into action. And reading this thread reminded me to turn the printer off, it had been on standby. Probably only a few pence but every penny ...

It seems a bit haphazard to me, I'm guessing my experience isn't unique.

The first Covid-19 vaccinations were handled well by my local GP, but last year's booster wasn't done by them at all, and I ended up going to a pharmacy in Cheadle Hulme because there wasn't one in Wilmslow that I could find by the time I got my invitation. Then this time I just happened to discover a van was in town a couple of weeks ago and I went down and got my latest booster without an appointment, but it was not advertised at all, I just happened to find out via social media. Since then I have received an invitation via the NHS, but obviously I don't need it now and I couldn't see where it was available by appointment.

Then last year the flu jab wasn't done by my GP, I'm guessing they were so back-logged after the Covid-19 one earlier in the year, but it was available at Boots in Wilmslow so that was fine. This year, it's back with the GP again, and I got mine yesterday.

But what is needed, I think, is a system in which a twin vaccination can be done at the same time in the same place, one invitation, one appointment, obviously the option to opt out of one of them. Currently it's too haphazard and I'm sure there are many people who won't make the same (small) effort as I made. Hence the Daily Mirror report. It's no big surprise.

But, of course, Boris got it "right" and Liz is now getting it "wrong".

 

[takno]

And reading this thread reminded me to turn the printer off, it had been on standby. Probably only a few pence but every penny ...

I absolutely think it's worth spending some money reminding people of seemingly-obvious things they can do to save energy, and it's particularly valuable to explain some of the more complex things they can do like re-timing energy-intensive things to save money in peaks.

On the other hand, this is a perfect example of what will actually happen, which is that the campaign will focus on nothing interventions like turning stuff off which is on standby. The figures they usually quote in support of doing this are painfully out-of-date, often harking back to the performance of TVs in the 80s and 90s. Turning off a single low-energy light-bulb would probably make more difference than all the appliances you have on stand-by.

 

[najaB]

On the other hand, this is a perfect example of what will actually happen, which is that the campaign will focus on nothing interventions like turning stuff off which is on standby.

From what I've read this would, rather than be the normal "unplug power bricks, switch off instead of standby", this campaign would have focused more on modifying behaviour to shave the peak demand for gas - for example, do your laundry at night, stop heating all the rooms in the house, etc. Larger-scale interventions.

 

[yorksrob]

As the SNP are showing, the whole fiasco of the last few weeks has left a massive open goal for the separatists. Well done Conservative and supposedly Unionist party

 

[Typhoon]

It seems a bit haphazard to me, I'm guessing my experience isn't unique.

The first Covid-19 vaccinations were handled well by my local GP, but last year's booster wasn't done by them at all, and I ended up going to a pharmacy in Cheadle Hulme because there wasn't one in Wilmslow that I could find by the time I got my invitation. Then this time I just happened to discover a van was in town a couple of weeks ago and I went down and got my latest booster without an appointment, but it was not advertised at all, I just happened to find out via social media. Since then I have received an invitation via the NHS, but obviously I don't need it now and I couldn't see where it was available by appointment.

The last year the flu jab wasn't done by my GP, I'm guessing they were so back-logged after the Covid-19 one earlier in the year, but it was available at Boots in Wilmslow so that was fine. This year, it's back with the GP again, and I got mine yesterday.

Mine is similar. Last year at community hospital, this year nowhere particularly close (including Southend for owners of powered boats). Several suggestions are not offering vaccinations at all; the nearest 'walk in' - my neighbours turned up, need an appointment. But unless we push this, we'll be back in the mire again. It would never have happened under Boris!

 

[takno]

From what I've read this would, rather than be the normal "unplug power bricks, switch off instead of standby", this campaign would have focused more on modifying behaviour to shave the peak demand for gas - for example, do your laundry at night, stop heating all the rooms in the house, etc. Larger-scale interventions.

The trouble is that I've been conditioned by years of stupid messaging (and often laws) which achieve precisely nothing apart from everyday inconvenience and reassuring a certain hand-wringing segment of society that "at least they've done something". People always bring up things like seatbelts and drink-driving, but the campaigns these days are always more like the plastic bag farce, or "look me in the eyes" rubbish.

There is a real opportunity here though to shave off peaks and get people to stop heating the half of the house they never go in. Hopefully there are enough useful people left in the relevant departments to make that happen.

 

[nw1]

Interesting headline in today's Daily Mirror.


I don't remember seeing much publicity about it, I don't know about you?

Probably one for the Covid threads, but, more generally: do you really need another booster if you're (say) just over 50, and don't have any underlying health conditions? In late 2022 when most cases are mild anyhow and people likely have good immunity? To me that statistic doesn't sound particularly alarming.

 

[jon0844]

And I suppose if we do actually get blackouts you'll still be saying it was a good thing not to suggest how to reduce usage & avoid the aforementioned blackouts?

There's nothing wrong with some advice. They're not coming to take your rights away! I never understand why some are so vehemently against an email, flyer or TV advert suggesting how you can save money or avoid mandatory blackouts!

Given all the consumer advice telling people an oven uses more power than a phone charger, it's naive to assume the general public know all about saving power.

British Gas had to take full page ads to tell them Liz (and others) weren't right in saying you couldn't pay over £2500.

It doesn't help that some sections of the press were talking about using appliances overnight to save power, as if a lot of people are on a variable tariff like Economy 7. Those on such a tariff probably already know about paying more in the day. Ironically, to prevent blackouts this advice useful but that's just coincidence!

Whether such a campaign needed to cost £15m is another thing, but maybe the contractor doing the printing was a mate of Jacob...

 

[Lost property]

First, it seems to be entirely dependent on your surgery as to whether you get Covid and / or flu jabs at the same time. I had both today and had to change from Boris and Matt to Lizz and Kwarsi when I named them.

Advice about energy saving is a bit problematic in that there are several demographics who feel it should be Summer in their homes in Winter and have also acquired every "energy / labour saving device " the adverts can throw at them. Reverting to basics may prove difficult therefore. Keeping warm ?...easy, but again, if you've always layered up, then it's not difficult.

Luckily, there's a new breed of "expert" available with lots of terribly helpful advice....well actually, very little practical advice given there's nothing new, but, far more importantly, this is their opportunity to promote themselves and their own, imaginary, "expertise ".

 

[jon0844]

Some of the advice I've read (especially on the <town>live sites) has been shocking.

Sadly, I can't help but feel the Government advice would be equally bad.

 

[birchesgreen]

Probably one for the Covid threads, but, more generally: do you really need another booster if you're (say) just over 50, and don't have any underlying health conditions? In late 2022 when most cases are mild anyhow and people likely have good immunity? To me that statistic doesn't sound particularly alarming.

Well i had mine two weeks ago (i'm 50), luckily my GP surgery is pretty on the ball. It might be mild to be me but i'd rather not catch it and risk giving it to others for whom it might not be so mild.

 

[najaB]

Probably one for the Covid threads, but, more generally: do you really need another booster if you're (say) just over 50, and don't have any underlying health conditions? In late 2022 when most cases are mild anyhow and people likely have good immunity? To me that statistic doesn't sound particularly alarming.

Do you need a booster? Well, one didn't need a vaccine in the first place, same as one doesn't need vaccination against polio, hepatitis, tetanus, etc as a child since they aren't very common. However, if everyone had that attitude...

 

[takno]

Do you need a booster? Well, one didn't need a vaccine in the first place, same as one doesn't need vaccination against polio, hepatitis, tetanus, etc as a child since they aren't very common. However, if everyone had that attitude...

Not to de-rail the thread, but vaccines like polio and hepatitis provide a very high degree of personal protection and add significantly to herd immunity against those diseases. Covid boosters provide a fairly small degree of personal protection and it's questionable whether they make any difference at all to the wider community. Conflating the two is just adding to the worrying drop in the numbers of people giving their children important and useful childhood vaccinations.

 

[AM9]

Well i had mine two weeks ago (i'm 50), luckily my GP surgery is pretty on the ball. It might be mild to be me but I'd rather not catch it and risk giving it to others for whom it might not be so mild.

I had been getting reminders to book my flu and COVID-19 booster from out GP since early September but I held off because we were away from 17th - 24th the month. Last week I was at the surgery for another matter and casually asked my GP, were they giving the bivalent vaccine. The answer was yes, an if I asked on the way out I moght even get the jabs on that day. 5 minutes later I was walking home with a shot in each arm. Felt a bit rough the following day but afer that I was fine.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm going to have to ask we leave the Covid discussion there please. It's off-topic. Thanks!

 

[AM9]

From what I've read this would, rather than be the normal "unplug power bricks, switch off instead of standby", this campaign would have focused more on modifying behaviour to shave the peak demand for gas - for example, do your laundry at night, stop heating all the rooms in the house, etc. Larger-scale interventions.

Gas isn't affected by peak demand, (well not in terms of certain hours of the day) unlike electricity wher the effect of demand is felt instantly.

 

[birchesgreen]

Another amusing u-turn anyway. Quite why they even considered getting rid of this is baffling. They seem intent on getting zero percent in the polls.

Ministers back free train travel for military to remembrance services after outcry

Exclusive: former veterans minister Johnny Mercer and others had condemned plans to scrap free travel

www.theguardian.com

The government has vowed to guarantee free rail travel for military personnel to attend remembrance services this year after facing criticism over moves to scrap the offer.

Proposed plans to stop the free train travel after the government decided the cost would be “too great” had sparked an outcry and calls for a U-turn from the former veterans minister Johnny Mercer and others.

 

[Acfb]

I seem to remember there's no Tory seats in Scotland anyway? the polls suggest Labour is gaining from the SNP ( or I guess that would be "recovering it's position" ).

I suspect in reality Mundell and Lamont might/will narrowly scrape home (and even Alister Jack can't be 100% written off either) and the Tory vote might also hold up better in the more Brexity parts of Aberdeenshire such as Banff and Buchan but the unionist vote in most central belt seats is clearly heading back to Labour as the main opposition to the SNP plus Labour could regain 2nd place to the SNP in places like East Renfrewshire.

 

[yorksrob]

Another amusing u-turn anyway. Quite why they even considered getting rid of this is baffling. They seem intent on getting zero percent in the polls.

Ministers back free train travel for military to remembrance services after outcry

Exclusive: former veterans minister Johnny Mercer and others had condemned plans to scrap free travel

www.theguardian.com

Very bizarre, the cost must be miniscule.

 

[najaB]

Gas isn't affected by peak demand, (well not in terms of certain hours of the day) unlike electricity wher the effect of demand is felt instantly.

Yes, but when such a high percentage of electricity is generated using gas then it does play into things.

 

[jon0844]

Yes, but when such a high percentage of electricity is generated using gas then it does play into things.

It makes no sense to waste gas producing electricity, and if people are asked to reduce usage at peak times then we might make it.

Sadly I bet there will be people online getting upset and being asked to moderate their usage or wash clothes and dishes overnight, and I bet you'll even have some people deliberately running appliance to cause problems as some sort of protest.

 

[philjo]

Very bizarre, the cost must be miniscule.

I heard it mentioned on the radio that the withdrawal of the free travel had been drawn up in DfT but not passed on to Ministers for approval.