Booming usage on Cambrian lines

[merlodlliw]

You saw this press release first on RF. A lot of the credit goes to the excellent work of SARPA & its Chairman promoting the line , you deserve an hourly service.


PRESS RELEASE Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth Rail Passenger Association
(SARPA).

Mobile: removed
E-mail:


14 February 2011

Booming usage on Cambrian lines confirms need for more services.



Recent official figures for station footfall released by the Office of the Rail Regulator for 2009/2010 show that rail usage continued to grow strongly on the Cambrian lines despite the recession. The mainline stations between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth grew by 9.26% on 2008/2009 whilst the coastline ones from Machynlleth to Pwllheli saw a 5.1% increase in usage.



Commenting on the figures SARPA Chairman Gareth Marston said “Despite the doomsayers predicting the recession would see decreasing numbers of passengers the opposite is in fact true in Mid Wales, the Cambrian continues to grow strongly year on year underlining the need for more services to be introduced. When you examine the figures the Cambrian is as busy if not busier than many lines elsewhere in Wales with far higher train frequencies. With only 8 trains a day the length of the line between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth there’s always plenty of company for passengers demonstrating the underlying strong demand for rail. Imagine how the usage would grow if passengers in Mid Wales were treated to the same frequency of service seen elsewhere”.





(ends)

 

[Invincibles]

The line does have obvious tourist potential and actually I would predict a recession would see increased usage on a line like the Cambrian.

Interesting questions about what will happen to Aberystwyth university after the impact of top up fees are known (will it set a fee to attract more students put off by other unis, or a higher fee to reduce student numbers but still revenue maximise). While I could make economic arguments for both I am not familiar enough with the demand there.

I did spend some time around Pwllheli 18 months ago and it did seem an area that could be marketed well, especially with better train connections.

It would be interesting to see what the full impact of the new signalling system is (and whether there is a Aber - London service)

 

[merlodlliw]

The line does have obvious tourist potential and actually I would predict a recession would see increased usage on a line like the Cambrian.

Interesting questions about what will happen to Aberystwyth university after the impact of top up fees are known (will it set a fee to attract more students put off by other unis, or a higher fee to reduce student numbers but still revenue maximise). While I could make economic arguments for both I am not familiar enough with the demand there.

I did spend some time around Pwllheli 18 months ago and it did seem an area that could be marketed well, especially with better train connections.

It would be interesting to see what the full impact of the new signalling system is (and whether there is a Aber - London service)

The top fees are different in Wales, for Welsh students, I am sure someone will have these. As of present, no Company will run a daily open Access Aber to London, ATW is not allowed out of its franchise and got its fingers burned when it attempted open access with DMUs,

Bob

 

[IanPooleTrains]

Whereas it might be a good thing that ATW didn't get that route, this route does have definitive possibilities for an OAO

This is where a company like Grand Central, if they don't get Euston to Blackpool, could step in and get or maybe a company like Chiltern could step in and then link up Wrexham as well. Unless that means doubling back on yourself a Shrewsbury?

 

[MadCommuter]

I used to go on family holidays to this area in the 80s and we once we stayed in a cottage that looked over the Cambrian at Penryhn. It was great watching the Saturday service from Euston with NSE stock and a pair of 31s. During the week we went for an evening trip to Aber and caught the return portion of the Euston service back to Mach, hauled by a 37/4. Sorry for reminiscing!

 

[merlodlliw]

Whereas it might be a good thing that ATW didn't get that route, this route does have definitive possibilities for an OAO

This is where a company like Grand Central, if they don't get Euston to Blackpool, could step in and get or maybe a company like Chiltern could step in and then link up Wrexham as well. Unless that means doubling back on yourself a Shrewsbury?

Hello Ian.
Alliance are also bidding for the Blackpool run,part funded by DB Arriva,ATWs owners, but all things considered, I don't see any Open Access running a daily service from Aber, the ORR through out ATWs bid at Open Access on this line, as they never saw it making money, mind you ATWs bid when read was not very professional & its sole reason was to knock WSMR, the Wag Minister of Transport was infuriated with ATW for fudging figures, I have his letter. Anyhow all in the past now, and yes Wrexham is 40 minutes from Shrewsbury, so down the line.

Bob
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I used to go on family holidays to this area in the 80s and we once we stayed in a cottage that looked over the Cambrian at Penryhn. It was great watching the Saturday service from Euston with NSE stock and a pair of 31s. During the week we went for an evening trip to Aber and caught the return portion of the Euston service back to Mach, hauled by a 37/4. Sorry for reminiscing!

I also recall Network South East stock on Saturdays, happy days.

Bob

 

[IanPooleTrains]

Am aware of Allice Rail wanting the Blackpoll run Bob but the main reason I don't think they will get it is because Virgin are bidding as well and apart from London Midland and London Overground, who is the main benefactor of trains out of Euston?

London Midland might be a good shout to take your suggested route Bob because most of the route is London Midland and Virgin.

And that's isn't a dig at ATW who also use the Birmingham - Shrewsbury route

 

[me123]

There's no doubt that the route is popular; even I can see that. Aberystwyth is an obvious tourist location, and the university makes it more popular than would otherwise be expected (exactly the same situation as St Andrews). Hopefully it will get an hourly service (something I've seen mentioned quite a bit). A direct link to London would also be fantastic for the area. Perhaps the WAG could look into it for the next franchise, if open access doesn't take off.

 

[merlodlliw]

Am aware of Allice Rail wanting the Blackpoll run Bob but the main reason I don't think they will get it is because Virgin are bidding as well and apart from London Midland and London Overground, who is the main benefactor of trains out of Euston?

London Midland might be a good shout to take your suggested route Bob because most of the route is London Midland and Virgin.

And that's isn't a dig at ATW who also use the Birmingham - Shrewsbury route

Ian you give many valid points, however Alliance as DB in the background,all three after the Blackpool connection have to prove it is viable.
good to have your contribution.

Bob
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

There's no doubt that the route is popular; even I can see that. Aberystwyth is an obvious tourist location, and the university makes it more popular than would otherwise be expected (exactly the same situation as St Andrews). Hopefully it will get an hourly service (something I've seen mentioned quite a bit). A direct link to London would also be fantastic for the area. Perhaps the WAG could look into it for the next franchise, if open access doesn't take off.

Indeed a direct London link would be fantastic, but WAG wont contribute a penny for a London Link, the next Wales & Border franchise is about 7 years away and there will be changes to it, the most important will be growth,sadly lacking when WAG were sold the Wales & Border franchise.An hourly service is more likely, but only if WAG pay for it,at the moment its gone off the boil.

Bob

 

[TDK]

You saw this press release first on RF. A lot of the credit goes to the excellent work of SARPA & its Chairman promoting the line , you deserve an hourly service.


PRESS RELEASE Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth Rail Passenger Association
(SARPA).

Mobile: removed
E-mail:


14 February 2011

Booming usage on Cambrian lines confirms need for more services.





Recent official figures for station footfall released by the Office of the Rail Regulator for 2009/2010 show that rail usage continued to grow strongly on the Cambrian lines despite the recession. The mainline stations between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth grew by 9.26% on 2008/2009 whilst the coastline ones from Machynlleth to Pwllheli saw a 5.1% increase in usage.



Commenting on the figures SARPA Chairman Gareth Marston said “Despite the doomsayers predicting the recession would see decreasing numbers of passengers the opposite is in fact true in Mid Wales, the Cambrian continues to grow strongly year on year underlining the need for more services to be introduced. When you examine the figures the Cambrian is as busy if not busier than many lines elsewhere in Wales with far higher train frequencies. With only 8 trains a day the length of the line between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth there’s always plenty of company for passengers demonstrating the underlying strong demand for rail. Imagine how the usage would grow if passengers in Mid Wales were treated to the same frequency of service seen elsewhere”.





(ends)

What is the comparison with the national figures, this will give a better trend reading?

2008‐09 Q1 9.0 Q2 9.3 Q3 8.7 Q4 8.3

These are the figures so the average for the year 2008-09 nantionally is 8.825% so 9.26% is 1% above national average and 5.1% is 3.15% below national average for the year, have they not got the 2009-2010 figues? I wouldn't say it was booming!

 

[Gareth Marston]

What is the comparison with the national figures, this will give a better trend reading?

2008‐09 Q1 9.0 Q2 9.3 Q3 8.7 Q4 8.3

These are the figures so the average for the year 2008-09 nantionally is 8.825% so 9.26% is 1% above national average and 5.1% is 3.15% below national average for the year, have they not got the 2009-2010 figues? I wouldn't say it was booming!

TDK- you have to remember to compare apples with apples and same time periods with these usage stats, the National Rail Trend (NRT) Quarterly figures you ask for are lumped together by sector with no break down by station or line. The ones you give above are for the financial year prior to the station footfall ones we quoted.
ORR state that station footfall across the UK fell by 0.8% for the period we quoted, so in fact the Cambrian is significantly above national average for the 09/10 financial year. The NRT have published up to the end of 10 I believe and growth has kicked back in nationally following a couple of quarters dip in 09. However we wont get the station breakdown for 10/11 until this time next year.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I used to go on family holidays to this area in the 80s and we once we stayed in a cottage that looked over the Cambrian at Penryhn. It was great watching the Saturday service from Euston with NSE stock and a pair of 31s. During the week we went for an evening trip to Aber and caught the return portion of the Euston service back to Mach, hauled by a 37/4. Sorry for reminiscing!

31's only came in after the Euston trains ceased and ran from New St once a day for a couple of years until 95 , prior to that you'd get 3 separate loco hauled trains on a summer Saturday up to 92. A 37/4 de railed on Dyfi bridge and it was used as one of the excuses to cut back the trains.

 

[cymro inside]

now that punctuality figures on the cambrian are better than they were say 3 or 4 years ago,has the more robust timetable contributed to the growth there?

 

[fairlie]

So when will there be an hourly service? Surely there can't be a shortage of cash for railways in WAG if they can afford a second WAG express?

 

[anthony263]

So when will there be an hourly service? Surely there can't be a shortage of cash for railways in WAG if they can afford a second WAG express?

Yes and the WAG need to pay for the valley lines to be electrified so that we can replace the pacers before the 2020 deadline.

 

[tbtc]

So when will there be an hourly service? Surely there can't be a shortage of cash for railways in WAG if they can afford a second WAG express?

It'd only take two units to achieve an hourly service from Birmingham to Aberystwyth, *if* the Birmingham International - Holyhead service was chopped at Shrewsbury, or alternatively to provide an hourly service from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth. I'm not sure whether Pwllheli is also to get a frequency increase (a very popular part of the country in the summer, plus Arriva bus links to Caernarfon etc)

I'm not sure there are paths from Birmingham to Wolverhampton for any additional services, however, so any increase would either need to be at the expense of the Holyhead service, coupled to it, or only as far as Shrewsbury

 

[fairlie]

That's another project that's more use than a second WAG express!

 

[TDK]

TDK- you have to remember to compare apples with apples and same time periods with these usage stats, the National Rail Trend (NRT) Quarterly figures you ask for are lumped together by sector with no break down by station or line. The ones you give above are for the financial year prior to the station footfall ones we quoted.
ORR state that station footfall across the UK fell by 0.8% for the period we quoted, so in fact the Cambrian is significantly above national average for the 09/10 financial year. The NRT have published up to the end of 10 I believe and growth has kicked back in nationally following a couple of quarters dip in 09. However we wont get the station breakdown for 10/11 until this time next year.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

31's only came in after the Euston trains ceased and ran from New St once a day for a couple of years until 95 , prior to that you'd get 3 separate loco hauled trains on a summer Saturday up to 92. A 37/4 de railed on Dyfi bridge and it was used as one of the excuses to cut back the trains.

I do not quite get it as this is the line that was posted on the lead post

"The mainline stations between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth grew by 9.26% on 2008/2009 whilst the coastline ones from Machynlleth to Pwllheli saw a 5.1% increase in usage."

The figures quoted by me are for the same year I believe?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

It'd only take two units to achieve an hourly service from Birmingham to Aberystwyth, *if* the Birmingham International - Holyhead service was chopped at Shrewsbury, or alternatively to provide an hourly service from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth. I'm not sure whether Pwllheli is also to get a frequency increase (a very popular part of the country in the summer, plus Arriva bus links to Caernarfon etc)

I'm not sure there are paths from Birmingham to Wolverhampton for any additional services, however, so any increase would either need to be at the expense of the Holyhead service, coupled to it, or only as far as Shrewsbury

2 units? How do you work that one out, I would say 4 at a minimum! and 2 car units will be inadequate if the split at Mach

 

[tbtc]

2 units? How do you work that one out, I would say 4 at a minimum! and 2 car units will be inadequate if the split at Mach

It's two hours from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth (a few minutes under, but lets not split hairs).

So, one unit would provide a service every four hours. Therefore, to provide a bi-hourly service west of Shrewsbury (e.g. to make the current bi-hourly service an hourly service) is going to need two units.

As I said in my post, I'm talking about Aberystwyth, as I've not seen it confirmed that Pwllheli would get a similar increase, so no "split" has been factored in.

(I appreciate that spare units are needed, maintenance etc, but bear with me)

 

[Gareth Marston]

I do not quite get it as this is the line that was posted on the lead post

"The mainline stations between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth grew by 9.26% on 2008/2009 whilst the coastline ones from Machynlleth to Pwllheli saw a 5.1% increase in usage."

The figures quoted by me are for the same year I believe?

Its growth from 08/09 to 09/10.

Recent official figures for station footfall released by the Office of the Rail Regulator for 2009/2010 show that rail usage continued to grow strongly on the Cambrian lines despite the recession. The mainline stations between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth grew by 9.26% on 2008/2009 whilst the coastline ones from Machynlleth to Pwllheli saw a 5.1% increase in usage.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

It's two hours from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth (a few minutes under, but lets not split hairs).

So, one unit would provide a service every four hours. Therefore, to provide a bi-hourly service west of Shrewsbury (e.g. to make the current bi-hourly service an hourly service) is going to need two units.

As I said in my post, I'm talking about Aberystwyth, as I've not seen it confirmed that Pwllheli would get a similar increase, so no "split" has been factored in.

(I appreciate that spare units are needed, maintenance etc, but bear with me)

Local "stakeholders" on the west coast seem to think it should include more coast services- however check the current timetable Mach to Barmouth has more trains than from Mach to Shrewsbury!
We would be happy for extra trains to be 2 car and run Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury and then join up with current Crewe to Shrewsbury and Chester to Crewe shuttles. Thereby giving direct link to Wem/Whitchurch/Nantwich and Chester and also improved connections to Manchester and other places at Crewe(incl Euston) from Cambrian. 49 minute wait from Manchester to Cambrian at moment at Shrewsbury. Its the major market for changing from Cambrian not Cardiff or N Wales - I do these trips regular but numbers doing likewise are low.
However would need four ertms fitted Class 158's and you couldnt substitute 150's like happens now between Chester and Salop via Crewe.

 

[The Planner]

It's two hours from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth (a few minutes under, but lets not split hairs).

So, one unit would provide a service every four hours. Therefore, to provide a bi-hourly service west of Shrewsbury (e.g. to make the current bi-hourly service an hourly service) is going to need two units.

Im not sure how you can do it in two units either.

Unit 1 does 07:27-09:25 then 09:30-11:25
Unit 2 does 08:27-10:25 then 10:30-12:25
Unit 3 does 09:27-11:25 then 11:30-13:25
Unit 4 does 10:27-12:25 then 12:30-14:25

The cycle then repeats. It's 4 diagrams and thats very very tight as Unit 1 has to turnaround in 2 minutes at Shrewsbury. There is no room for recovery in that, all it takes is one diagram to go pear shaped and it's curtains. It should be 5 diagrams with unit 1 sitting for an hour at Shrewsbury to make the 12:27.

 

[merlodlliw]

So when will there be an hourly service? Surely there can't be a shortage of cash for railways in WAG if they can afford a second WAG express?

Its all to do with Politics, The WAG Minister for rail Ian Wyn Jones (Plaid),looked after his Constituency of Anglesey first, Holyhead to Cardiff two express services, one Aircraft Valley to Cardiff. As part of this devolved coalition WAG Govt, this Minister knows his boss Carwyn Jones is too weak to challenge his aspirations,and 90% of the line Shrewsbury to Aber is Tory or Liberal territory, it is also my understanding the hourly service was only mentioned as a may be to the Plaid A.M for Aber.
An hourly service to Aber I am afraid is too low on Ian Wyn Jones agenda,after May we may see some one who will not blame everyone else,at the moment there is a culture of putting all blame on the Civil Servants for bad advice, Civil Servants do not have any public right of reply.I have witnessed local Plaid politicians here in Wrexham blaming Civil Servants for the
bad advice given to the Minister when he signed off £3.5M for Wag Ex2 route.
I don't know the extra cost of an hourly service on the Cambrian,but the cash strapped Counties of Salop,Powys & Ceredigion wont pay for it,now that £6.8millions as been found in subsidy for the WAG Exs & Wagair this year alone ,so what is left in the pot for rail.

All my opinion of course. Will I vote for more devolved powers in March, NO
Bob

 

[TDK]

Im not sure how you can do it in two units either.

Unit 1 does 07:27-09:25 then 09:30-11:25
Unit 2 does 08:27-10:25 then 10:30-12:25
Unit 3 does 09:27-11:25 then 11:30-13:25
Unit 4 does 10:27-12:25 then 12:30-14:25

The cycle then repeats. It's 4 diagrams and thats very very tight as Unit 1 has to turnaround in 2 minutes at Shrewsbury. There is no room for recovery in that, all it takes is one diagram to go pear shaped and it's curtains. It should be 5 diagrams with unit 1 sitting for an hour at Shrewsbury to make the 12:27.

More like an accurate estimate - a 2 car in peak will be overcrowded also and if the service is to attach to a manchester or Holyhead this set has also got to be a 15x - with 175's on many of these services I can't see that happeneing either, I think someone has their sums wrong

 

[sprinterguy]

Im not sure how you can do it in two units either.

Unit 1 does 07:27-09:25 then 09:30-11:25
Unit 2 does 08:27-10:25 then 10:30-12:25
Unit 3 does 09:27-11:25 then 11:30-13:25
Unit 4 does 10:27-12:25 then 12:30-14:25

The cycle then repeats. It's 4 diagrams and thats very very tight as Unit 1 has to turnaround in 2 minutes at Shrewsbury. There is no room for recovery in that, all it takes is one diagram to go pear shaped and it's curtains. It should be 5 diagrams with unit 1 sitting for an hour at Shrewsbury to make the 12:27.

tbtc is saying that two additional trains would be needed above the current bi-hourly service provision: Half of those services you have stated already exist as the current bi-hourly service.

 

[EltonRoad]

31's only came in after the Euston trains ceased and ran from New St once a day for a couple of years until 95 , prior to that you'd get 3 separate loco hauled trains on a summer Saturday up to 92. A 37/4 de railed on Dyfi bridge and it was used as one of the excuses to cut back the trains.

This is what I remember as well.

Up to c 1992 there was I think an overnight Friday/Saturday Euston - Pwllheli train that stopped in the sidings at Shrewsbury for a while, then carried on to the Cambrian. May even have avoided Shrewsbury and gone round the Abbey Foregate curve.

Then there was a morning Euston - Pwllheli train formed by a long rake of NSE stock, got into Shrewsbury about lunchtime. I remember seeing a large logo 37/4 hauling it away from platform 4.

Then there was the down Cambrian Coast Express in the evening, Euston to Aber, with InterCity mark 2 stock and a 37/4 on the front, often 37 430 Cwmbran.

The pair of 31s appeared on the summer Saturday New Street - Pwllheli workings after the Euston trains stopped, I've got photos of them at Meole Brace.

Happy days.

(Sorry to go off on a tangent!)

 

[tbtc]

More like an accurate estimate - a 2 car in peak will be overcrowded also and if the service is to attach to a manchester or Holyhead this set has also got to be a 15x - with 175's on many of these services I can't see that happeneing either, I think someone has their sums wrong

As I said, that would be the *marginal* cost of upgrading the current bi-hourly service west of Shrewsbury to hourly (Aberystwyth only, as I said I'm not factoring in the Pwhelli section). Just the marginal cost, not the total cost.

If this service was extended to Birmingham International then (as I said) it'd be better to be run in place of the current Holyhead service (so not attached to anything new).

I appreciate that a lot of services are longer than two car (especially with the portion working from Birmingham to Shrewsbury, and the splitting at Dovey Junction.

However, I'm a bit confused by being told on the one hand that a two car unit wouldn't be enough to cope with demand and on the other hand that the councils can't afford to subsidise this new service. If a two car service (for the *additional* journeys) is too short, then that doesn't sound like the kind of additional services that would need subsidy. If subsidy is needed then that would suggest two coaches could cope fine...

Longer term, I could see an hourly Birmingham - Cambrian service, an hourly Cardiff - Holyhead service (including the WAG1/WAG2 paths, though probably just a "common or garden" unit) and an hourly South Wales - Manchester service (thus get rid of the Birmingham - Holyhead, with three hourly clockface services then connections at Shrewsbury would be provided)

 

[MadCommuter]

The pair of 31s appeared on the summer Saturday New Street - Pwllheli workings after the Euston trains stopped,

(Sorry to go off on a tangent!)

Thanks for the clarification. I was v young at the time and wrongly assumed they were Eustons.

 

[cymro inside]

the overnight euston to pwllheli was interesting because it was booked to stand on the abbey foregate curve at salop for about 4 hours til the cambrian opened at 05 something

 

[merlodlliw]

This is what I remember as well.

Up to c 1992 there was I think an overnight Friday/Saturday Euston - Pwllheli train that stopped in the sidings at Shrewsbury for a while, then carried on to the Cambrian. May even have avoided Shrewsbury and gone round the Abbey Foregate curve. end quote.

I recall that train, it left Euston very late, did stop at Shrewsbury for refreshments? it was there for hours,forget the time, very early hours, then on to the Cambrian,I am sure part of the train went to Aber, it was split at Mach?, this I think was one of those holiday over nights that ran Summer Fridays , I also recall a similar from Manchester to the West Country, used to see it at Crewe.

A bit further back in my very early working days, The York/Aber TPO used to travel via Crewe with two or three passenger carriages, this departed Shrewsbury around 3-30a.m. also carrying news.

As you say happy days .

Bob

 

[Gareth Marston]

Hers a January letter from the Minister about Cambrian Hourly.

As to the 2 extra units thing ;

• If the service is Shrewsbury to Aber only it won't work due to marginal turnaround times.
• If it combines/detaches with existing Holyhead to BHM INTL service it would work.
• If it combined with existing Crewe to Shrewsbury shuttle it would work.

 

[Gareth Marston]

the overnight euston to pwllheli was interesting because it was booked to stand on the abbey foregate curve at salop for about 4 hours til the cambrian opened at 05 something

The working timetables for 76 and 79 I have show the morning mail train on Summer Saturdays as being loco hauled to Aber (no coast portion) Origination is Shrewsbury. Summer 1976 Departs Shrewsbury 0415 arrives Aber 0642. Stock forms 1010 to Euston from Aber. Of course in those days Aber still had 3 operational platforms!