Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

Whilst it's thrilling to see Ukraine getting it's territory back, the fate of many ordinary Russian soldiers is also a tragedy (albeit some seem to be guilty of appalling crimes).

There are some ordinary Russians caught up in this, they’re not all monsters. Don’t get me wrong, I’m absolutely sickened by what the Russians (as a collective) have done, and want to see Ukraine repel this invasion by any means necessary, but I think it’s important to retain a degree of humanity.

 

[brad465]

Could it? Are there any serious independence movements in any parts of Russia? Or any regions where the population tends to see themselves as some nationality other than Russian? (That's a genuine question - I don't know the answer).

Chechnya is arguably the most likely, but there maybe others in the south, central and far east. There are also stability issues that Russia has tried to police in neighbouring countries, like Armenia and Azerbaijan.

 

[Loppylugs]

Dearest Vlad,

May I wish you the the most explosive day possible for your 70th birthday tomorrow. I have sent you a present, when you receive it just pull the little pin out at the side and give the little device a little shake. You will enjoy the results, as will we. No need to thank me.

Yours.......a well wisher

 

[TheEdge]

Could it? Are there any serious independence movements in any parts of Russia? Or any regions where the population tends to see themselves as some nationality other than Russian? (That's a genuine question - I don't know the answer).

There are quite a lot, mostly the Republics of Russia to various different levels. As @brad465 has said Chechyna is the main one, but Dagestan, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Tatars are some others that have varying levels of desire about independence. Along with that there are quite a few smaller areas that would rather be part of neighboring countries, ethnic Mongols and Kazakhs for example in those border areas.

 

[Noddy]

There are quite a lot, mostly the Republics of Russia to various different levels. As @brad465 has said Chechyna is the main one, but Dagestan, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Tatars are some others that have varying levels of desire about independence. Along with that there are quite a few smaller areas that would rather be part of neighboring countries, ethnic Mongols and Kazakhs for example in those border areas.

While some of those are clearly legit, some are about as popular or well developed as Cornish independence. There’s a lot of talk about independence for Kaliningrad from outside Kaliningrad but virtually none from within (and I suspect that which there is, is fed by those outside, so it’s not that surprising that Putin is slightly paranoid). The locals were all deported and replaced by ethnic Russians (86% of the current population according the wiki).

 

[Giugiaro]

I don't see Kaliningrad wanting to become independent. It's basically a Russian playground.

Regarding the eventual collapse of Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if China went on a land grab of Primorsky Krai.
China, despite its... complicated relationship with Russia, does have some territorial disputes. They would be immediate in seizing control of some of the former Russian territory.

 

[najaB]

China, despite its... complicated relationship with Russia, does have some territorial disputes. They would be immediate in seizing control of some of the former Russian territory.

And Russia can't fight China and Japan at the same time...

 

[Bald Rick]

And Russia can't fight China and Japan at the same time...

Remind me of an old Cold War joke from my school days:

Reagan and Andropov (which dates it) are having a private dinner during weapons negotiation, and are visited by a ghost from the future. The ghost offers them one question each.

Reagan asks if USA is still the greatest superpower. “The USA is no longer a superpower” replies the ghost. Andropov smirks.

Andropov then asks about the status of the Soviet Union. The ghost replies “There are border clashes between Finland and China”.

(Or something like that).

 

[43096]

Remind me of an old Cold War joke from my school days:

Reagan and Andropov (which dates it) are having a private dinner during weapons negotiation, and are visited by a ghost from the future. The ghost offers them one question each.

Reagan asks if USA is still the greatest superpower. “The USA is no longer a superpower” replies the ghost. Andropov smirks.

Andropov then asks about the status of the Soviet Union. The ghost replies “There are border clashes between Finland and China”.

(Or something like that).

That's a very specific time period, as Andropov was only General Secretary for about 15 months, and he was dying for about 12 of them. Mind you his successor, Chernenko only did 13 months before dying (having been in very poor health for a long time).

 

[Sm5]

They are also committing long term suicide, as they are making alternative energy sources much cheaper in comparison for longer, further speeding up the transition. Russia invading Ukraine has also raised awareness of need to avoid being beholden to dodgy regimes, so everything OPEC does is amplifying this point of view.

Quite..

so who has the money to invest in this new alternative energy sources ?
it aint us were near bankrupt.

I know lets ask the Mid East.. there rolling in cash, and its really hot in the desert, maybe making solar there, instead of Scunthorpe makes more sense too… then they sell it to us instead of oil.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Oct 2022 ==

I don't see Kaliningrad wanting to become independent. It's basically a Russian playground.

it used to be a German one…

Wars change things.

 

[Bald Rick]

so who has the money to invest in this new alternative energy sources ?

There is a huge amount of private money investing in alternative energy. It doesn’t need Government money. There’s well over £20bn of private money being invested in U.K. offshore wind alone over the next five years. About the same again on onshore wind, solar, and energy storage.

 

[brad465]

There is a huge amount of private money investing in alternative energy. It doesn’t need Government money. There’s well over £20bn of private money being invested in U.K. offshore wind alone over the next five years. About the same again on onshore wind, solar, and energy storage.

Do you have a source for this? I'm not saying you're wrong but I might try and use this information elsewhere where possible.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you have a source for this? I'm not saying you're wrong but I might try and use this information elsewhere where possible.

From my own research.

For example Dogger Bank wind farm is costing about £9bn, funded by a joint venture of SSE, Equinor and ENI. Equinox is Norwegian state owned, the other two are private companies.

Or the East Anglia wind farms in construction / development (EA1 North, EA2, EA3) total cost around £7bn, all funded by Scottish Power and Vattenfall, both private companies.

Or Hornsea 3, about £7bn, funded by Ørsted, a private company.

That lot is about half the offshore wind consented / under construction around the U.K. The £20bn is probably a significant underestimate

 

[Broucek]

From my own research.

For example Dogger Bank wind farm is costing about £9bn, funded by a joint venture of SSE, Equinor and ENI. Equinor is Norwegian state owned, the other two are private companies.

And even Equinor isn't completely a gov't-owned entity - it's listed on Oslo Borse.

Equinor and SSE are also collaborating in the UK generation market:

Equinor and SSE Thermal acquire Triton Power and prepare for transition to hydrogen

Equinor and SSE Thermal are buying power company Triton Power from Energy Capital Partners.

www.equinor.com

 

[brad465]

Wondering if Lukashenko is trolling Putin here:

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin gets a tractor for his 70th birthday

Gifts for Russia's embattled president include a tractor from Belarusian ally Alexander Lukashenko.

www.bbc.co.uk

A tractor is one of the odder gifts for Vladimir Putin, as Russia's president, a pariah in the West since his invasion of Ukraine, turns 70.
It was given him by his Belarusian ally, Alexander Lukashenko, whose country boasts a tractor works.
Mr Lukashenko confirmed the news as he visited his fellow strongman's home city, St Petersburg, for talks.
Mr Putin was hosting other leaders of ex-Soviet states as the war fanned by his invasion raged.
Faced with successful Ukrainian counter-attacks, he hinted at problems this week, describing the situation in regions he recently annexed as "restive".
But on Friday, his allies lavished praise and gifts on the man who has led Russia, whether as president or prime minister, for more than two decades.
Mr Lukashenko, Europe's self-styled "last dictator" who has been in power even longer than the Russian leader (since 1994) and whose administration is also under Western sanctions, came to St Petersburg with a gift certificate for the Belarusian-made vehicle.

The Minsk Tractor Works is the flagship of Belarusian industry.
It was not immediately clear how Mr Putin responded to the big-wheeled gift, which had to compete with mountains of melons and watermelons from Tajikistan's President, Emomali Rahmon.

 

[Sm5]

Looks like they’ve only gone and done it…

Crimea bridge partly reopens after huge explosion - Russia

The explosion wrecked one section of Europe's longest bridge, reportedly killing three people.

www.bbc.co.uk

A blast on the road section led to oil tankers on the rail section catching fire, before the road collapsed.
Crimea was annexed in 2014 by Russia, which now uses the bridge to move military equipment into Ukraine.
The official Twitter account of the Ukraine government responded to the fire by tweeting: "Sick burn."
An adviser to Ukraine's President Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak, called the damage a "beginning" - but did not directly claim Ukrainian responsibility.

Todays headlines are all set, and on his birthday too.

Very well placed precision hit, looks like two missiles, but might actually be an infiltration team and a demolition job given the precise location and timing of the hit. The shrapnel just happened to hit a passing fuel train too… Thus taking out the rail link at the same time.

The timing of this kind of hit, including that type of train passing and being hit can’t just be by luck alone.

I dont even need to say what it was, it is what you’re thinking it is, and a pontoon bridge isnt going to fix that logistical problem.

A southern forward strike towards Melitopol looks likely now.

 

[birchesgreen]

That tractor is already been painted green and is heading South.

 

[TheEdge]

That tractor is already been painted green and is heading South.

It'll be interesting to see how disappointed the Ukrainian farmer is who only gets a tractor to recover than a nice T-80BVM is.

Also, finally appears the Kerch Bridge has exploded...

 

[adc82140]

The official explanation for the bridge explosion is a truck bomb. There is no evidence to suggest missiles, as there is no shrapnel. Interestingly the truck was heading towards Crimea from Russia, suggesting the attack was instigated from within Russia. This isn't likely to be a false flag, as it causes far too many problems for Russian supply lines. What it does show is how shoddily the bridge was built. War or no war, the railway section should have been able to withstand a fuel train fire.

 

[dgl]

Regarding the Kerch Bridge it seems a section of roadway has completely collapsed, and whilst the railway hasn't collapsed where they had the the train fire, it doesn't exactly look in good shape.
for a video of the affected area see: https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1578640833666232320

 

[gingerheid]

Wow.

 

[DerekC]

Judging by the Twitter feed above, looks like three sections of the road bridge down - two together and one a span away. Hard to see that being the result of one truck bomb - unless it was big enough to shift the whole road deck. And little fire damage on the road surface so presumably high explosive? Yet no apparent shrapnel damage and the train doesn't appear to have been hit by anything big, just set on fire. May be just that we aren't seeing the whole picture.

 

[brad465]

Is it bad that my first reaction to this latest news was "Here we, here we, here we ****ing go!!!!"?

 

[DustyBin]

Judging by the Twitter feed above, looks like three sections of the road bridge down - two together and one a span away. Hard to see that being the result of one truck bomb - unless it was big enough to shift the whole road deck. And little fire damage on the road surface so presumably high explosive? Yet no apparent shrapnel damage and the train doesn't appear to have been hit by anything big, just set on fire. May be just that we aren't seeing the whole picture.

It’s early days but I think you’re right. On the CCTV footage I’ve seen, the truck that looks to explode is actually on the wrong carriageway (unless there’s footage showing another one).

The train is interesting. I’d be surprised if it’s presence at the time of the explosion was pure luck, but what caused it to catch fire? If it wasn’t shrapnel from a missile strike could there have been a separate charge placed on the rail bridge (which may even have been the trigger for the whole lot)? This assumes of course that it wasn’t actually a missile strike.

 

[gingerheid]

Is it bad that my first reaction to this latest news was "Here we, here we, here we ****ing go!!!!"?

I've just been asking Ukrainian friends how I can celebrate when I don't drink. The best I can come up with is baking a cake, squashing the middle of it, and then putting way too many candles on it...

 

[adc82140]

It’s early days but I think you’re right. On the CCTV footage I’ve seen, the truck that looks to explode is actually on the wrong carriageway (unless there’s footage showing another one).

The train is interesting. I’d be surprised if it’s presence at the time of the explosion was pure luck, but what caused it to catch fire? If it wasn’t shrapnel from a missile strike could there have been a separate charge placed on the rail bridge (which may even have been the trigger for the whole lot)? This assumes of course that it wasn’t actually a missile strike.

Reading the early analysis, it's highly unlikely to have been a missile. More likely the bridge was rigged with explosives. The Russians probably know this, but it's far less embarrassing to blame a truck bomb.

 

[DerekC]

Is it bad that my first reaction to this latest news was "Here we, here we, here we ****ing go!!!!"?

Yes - Putin can't just absorb this and carry on as though nothing had happened. He is likely to do something big, although he may take his time.

 

[philosopher]

Yes - Putin can't just absorb this and carry on as though nothing had happened. He is likely to do something big, although he may take his time.

Hopefully someone will remove him from power before he does anything big.

 

[Cdd89]

Hopefully someone will remove him from power before he does anything big.

The question I always have about regime change is why a replacement would be any better? It’s not like we don’t have two precedents for that in the UK (admittedly not warmongers )

 

[yorksrob]

The question I always have about regime change is why a replacement would be any better? It’s not like we don’t have two precedents for that in the UK (admittedly not warmongers )

One only has to look at what comes out of the Duma (the Russian parliament).