Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

[Typhoon]

Liz Truss said that she's the first prime minister to have gone to a comprehensive school.
Unfortunately it appears that Gordon Brown went to a comprehensive school (Kirkcaldy High School), and Theresa May's school (Holton Park Girls' Grammar School) became a comprehensive school in 1971 (Wheatley Park Comprehensive School) whilst she was there.

Unfortunately. change of government has not resulted has in an improvement is more accurate statements/posts. Martin Lewis has called out a Treasury tweet
HM Treasury deleted an energy announcement after consumer champion Martin Lewis called it “nonsense”.

The Treasury’s tweet said: “Thanks to the Growth Plan, a typical first-time buyer in London moving into a representative terraced house will save £11,250 on stamp duty and £1,050 on the household’s energy bills – and, if they earn £30,000, almost an additional £400 on tax.

“This is around £12,700 in total.”

However, the MoneySavingExpert founder hit back and said: “This is nonsense. To make that stamp-duty saving, you’d need to be buying a £500,000+ property.

“With 10% deposit, cheapest-fix mortgage would cost £2,400/mth (£28,000/yr). How can someone on £30k afford that.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/news...sedgntp&cvid=3adce941727641a9883d3d5d8ee5693a

Regarding your point about comprehensives, that was just a sign that the policies of Wilson's government were having an effect, that those who go to comps can rise to the top.

Like you I went to a Grammar; we weren't posh, rows of terraced houses with outside loos and, in many cases, tin baths where you heated the water. The only reason we had a proper bathroom is that my father, a shop floor worker, built it. When the Tories rode back on comps, my school, which was in a working-class area was left as a comp while a secondary school in a middle-class area was turned into a grammar

 

[Irascible]

Major inherited the biggest recession this country had ever been in at the time plus Maastricht which is more or less all I can remember of his terms ( that and a majority of 3, anyway ), and Blair inherited the recovery boom plus something of a revolution, so Blair started on a high note. The late 90s *was* a pretty good time.

Starmer on the other hand is going to inherit a complete disaster, and if he manages to get the country out of it he'll be a legend.

 

[BrianW]

A bit controversial here- anything to report on Rail?
I understand that the Agenda for the Conservative Party Conference showed three (maybe more) meetings about rail (including 'fringe' meetings) including one addressed by the Secretary of State for Transport Ane-Marie Trevelyan. Did she say anything/ lille/ nothing of note?

 

[david1212]

........
Liz Truss only has support from her recent electorate - the Conservative party at large - and hasn't got support from her MPs or from the wider electorate. Can she change this? I don't think so. So she's doomed, along with the electoral prospects of her party. But it'll take a long time before this comes to pass.

While from the final choice the preference for PM of a proportion of MP's was Sunak to me the number that did not want to serve in her cabinet but return to / stay on the back benches say a lot. This is Corbyn territory. He could not unite at least most Labour MP's. If Liz Truss can not unite at least most current Tory MP's very quickly she is never likely to.


The announcement of the removal of the 45% tax rate by Kwasi Kwarteng did neither her nor the party any favours while in politics a U-turn is never good for support.

The talk about only increasing the state pension ( to me not a benefit ) and benefits by the average of wage increases instead of the CPI is just adding fuel to the fire. If carried though it will be at the loss of a proportion of 'silver' voters, disabled etc.

 

[Acfb]

Interesting Scottish polling just out:

Comres

SNP 46% (-)
Lab 30% (+5)
Con 15% (-3)
LD 8%

SNP 45% (-1)
Lab 31% (+9)
Con 12% (-7)
LD 7% (+1)
Grn 3% (-)

Very robust for the SNP and would probably result in Labour only getting around a dozen seats in Scotland plus the Tories possibly getting wiped out.

 

[Ediswan]

Maybe not the best choice of conference walk on music.
Moving On Up: M People founder livid song was used by PM

The use of Moving On Up as introductory music for the prime minister has left its creators "livid" and frustrated.
Liz Truss walked on to M People's 1993 hit before addressing the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham earlier.
The Manchester group's founder Mike Pickering said he hoped Ms Truss took note of the lyrics, as it was "about, 'go and pack your bags and get out'".

 

[Busaholic]

Interesting Scottish polling just out:

Comres

SNP 46% (-)
Lab 30% (+5)
Con 15% (-3)
LD 8%

SNP 45% (-1)
Lab 31% (+9)
Con 12% (-7)
LD 7% (+1)
Grn 3% (-)

Very robust for the SNP and would probably result in Labour only getting around a dozen seats in Scotland plus the Tories possibly getting wiped out.

Labour wouldn't need to get the number of Scottish seats they used to in the Blair/Brown era though to form a government if current trends continue, particularly if the Tories either get wiped out or, at most, one or two seats. Besides, I'm sure an 'arrangement' with the SNP could be part of the mix too.

 

[Gloster]

Besides, I'm sure an 'arrangement' with the SNP could be part of the mix too.

Which will no doubt be used by those parts of the media that like the Conservatives, i.e. most of it, to terrify English voters. How dare the uppity Scots object to being told what to do by London!

 

[DelayRepay]

Which will no doubt be used by those parts of the media that like the Conservatives, i.e. most of it, to terrify English voters. How dare the uppity Scots object to being told what to do by London!

Which is exactly why Starmer said: We can’t work with them, we won’t work with them. No deal under any circumstances.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Conservative Party has been here before, in fairly recent memory for the old-in-the-tooth like me. Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo and Iain Duncan Smith fought it out to succeed John Major as party leader after Major resoundingly lost the General Election in 1997. Ken Clarke, like Rishi Sunak, got far more votes from MPs than the other two but, crucially, Duncan Smith secured one more than Portillo and went through to the 'final' against Clarke. It was obvious even to a visiting alien that Clarke was far more competent than Duncan Smith and would make a better leader except that was not the main consideration for so many anti-European MPs who could not countenance someone so vocally pro-European leading them; also many blamed Clarke for being the first to tell Margaret Thatcher her time was up (cf Sunak/Johnson). The vast majority of Portillo supporters then backed Duncan Smith on the ABC principle - Anyone But Clarke. The membership had no say in those days, which had the benefit of keeping the contest short, and the Tories got Duncan Smith, whom they deserved. Not very long before they realised their ghastly (from their point of view) mistake.

The one major difference between then and now is that IDS never got dumped on us as P.M., so never got round to foisting his objectionable ideas and policies outside his own circle of hangers-on and dodgy political dealers.

This is why the sooner the Tory party blows itself up and splits into the right wing nutters and the one nation tory group the better for UK politics.

 

[Irascible]

Very robust for the SNP and would probably result in Labour only getting around a dozen seats in Scotland plus the Tories possibly getting wiped out.

I seem to remember there's no Tory seats in Scotland anyway? the polls suggest Labour is gaining from the SNP ( or I guess that would be "recovering it's position" ).

 

[jfollows]

I seem to remember there's no Tory seats in Scotland anyway? the polls suggest Labour is gaining from the SNP ( or I guess that would be "recovering it's position" ).

6 Conservative seats in Scotland after the 2019 election, down from 13 seats in the 2017 election (gained by the SNP).

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Banff and Buchan
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Dumfries and Galloway
Moray

In 2019 the share of the votes was
SNP 45.0%
CON 25.1%
LAB 18.6%
LD 9.5%
GRN 1.0%
BRX 0.5%
so if you compare this with the polling reported above by Acfb it's something like Conservatives lose 10% of the vote to Labour, SNP little changed.
Electoral Calculus with numbers like these does give 0 predicted seats for Conservatives in Scotland, with all 6 existing seats going SNP and Labour gaining 3 seats from SNP, SNP ending up +4 on today (I believe they gain 1 from LD as well to make the numbers add up).

 

[takno]

6 Conservative seats in Scotland after the 2019 election, down from 13 seats in the 2017 election (gained by the SNP).

In 2019 the share of the votes was
SNP 45.0%
CON 25.1%
LAB 18.6%
LD 9.5%
GRN 1.0%
BRX 0.5%
so if you compare this with the polling reported above by Acfb it's something like Conservatives lose 10% of the vote to Labour, SNP little changed.
Electoral Calculus with numbers like these does give 0 predicted seats for Conservatives in Scotland, with all 6 existing seats going SNP and Labour gaining 3 seats from SNP, SNP ending up +4 on today (I believe they gain 1 from LD as well to make the numbers add up).

In practice uniform swings are pretty useless in predicting at these low numbers. It's quite likely that the Lib Dems will retain their seat and may even gain one in the Highlands, the Tories will keep one in the borders, and labour may well do a little better in the central belt. A lot comes down to tactical voting, local issues and candidates

 

[davetheguard]

This is why the sooner the Tory party blows itself up and splits into the right wing nutters and the one nation tory group the better for UK politics.

I thought it had already done so. And the ERG won.

 

[brad465]

There was a striking line in this FT analysis/review of the party conference:

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on.ft.com

After a day of chaos and acrimony at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham on Monday, a longstanding ally of Liz Truss could not take any more. “I just went back to my hotel room and cried,” he said. “It’s a total disaster.”

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think we are watching the slow collapse of the Tory Party as per the 1990s. I wish it'd happen quicker, though, as the longer it takes the more the UK will suffer.

 

[nw1]

I thought it had already done so. And the ERG won.

In which case the One Nation group really need to form a new centre-right party. Then Tory-inclined voters at the ballot box can decide whether they prefer the foaming-at-the-mouth ERG types or the more moderate types (a fairly broad church which would include May, Cameron, Major and Heath amongst recent PMs).

 

[Bletchleyite]

In which case the One Nation group really need to form a new centre-right party. Then Tory-inclined voters at the ballot box can decide whether they prefer the foaming-at-the-mouth ERG types or the more moderate types (a fairly broad church which would include May, Cameron, Major and Heath amongst recent PMs).

Problem* is that you then make the Tories like the centre-left in that having two parties rather than one makes them less likely to win.

PR, anyone?

* Or opportunity, should you vote to the left, as it were.

 

[SynthD]

In which case the One Nation group really need to form a new centre-right party. Then Tory-inclined voters at the ballot box can decide whether they prefer the foaming-at-the-mouth ERG types or the more moderate types (a fairly broad church which would include May, Cameron, Major and Heath amongst recent PMs).

They don’t have the integrity to separate themselves from the foamers, because they want the votes attracted by policies the foamers can sell to the public and media.

 

[jfollows]

I now find myself in the unprecedented position of agreeing with Nadine Dorries who says that the party's "lurch to the right" will lead to a "Stephen Harper-type wipeout" (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ference-labour-conservatives-uk-politics-live). Of course she's trying to draw a parallel with elections in Canada and she gets it wrong because it was a different time and person who suffered the "wipeout" but I don't expect her to get much right. She's also calling for benefits to rise in line with inflation rather than earnings.
But the party chairman has apologised for saying that people should get better-paid jobs in order to pay their bills.
The whole lot of them seem so out of touch with reality as it applies to most people - those who live outside the Westminster bubble of course.
Slow collapse starts from here, as Bletchleyite says. Not quick enough for me. Will we get rid of Esther McVey?

 

[BrianW]

Changing leader once without an election, while annoying is something that sometimes can't be avoided, and shouldn't be a major issue. However, changing leader twice in one parliament, especially were both changes were due to leadership failure, without an election will be seen as too much for many key voters and no matter how good the next leader is, they'll instantly have a popularity hit because of that.

How about this:
- Governing parties have their MPs choose their leader (and thus PM)- when thhere's a vacancy; result same day
- Opposition parties, some other system as they choose, eg Party members, committee, 'grey men in suits', backwoods shooters and fishers, ...

Reminding myself that sometime back a bit, Labour was voted in in Greater London Council under a (looking back) moderator, only to be 'replaced' by elected members voting in Ken Livingstone as leader. Could be 'mis-remembering ...

 

[Typhoon]

Will we get rid of Esther McVey?

If we do, she'll end up on GB News five days a week instead of two! Every silver lining has a (pretty large, dark) cloud!

 

[nw1]

But the party chairman has apologised for saying that people should get better-paid jobs in order to pay their bills.

Out of touch, indeed. Not sure who the party chairman is, but doubtless some well-connected type who could just walk into a better-paid job.

The whole lot of them seem so out of touch with reality as it applies to most people - those who live outside the Westminster bubble of course.
Slow collapse starts from here, as Bletchleyite says. Not quick enough for me. Will we get rid of Esther McVey?

If you can find a new Martin Bell figure, then maybe. I doubt true-blue Tatton (an area I am familiar with, I lived there as a child and still have contacts there) would ever go Labour though! Maybe Lib Dem.

 

[jfollows]

If you can find a new Martin Bell figure, then maybe. I doubt true-blue Tatton (an area I am familiar with, I lived there as a child and still have contacts there) would ever go Labour though! Maybe Lib Dem.

Labour always comes second in Tatton (except for that time!), and there are wards with a strong Labour vote even in Alderley Edge and Knutsford (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=sk9+5hn) so in terms of tactical voting I have been voting Labour rather than Lib Dem. The link I quote predicts four times the number of Labour votes than Lib Dem although it's only a prediction.

 

[nw1]

Labour always comes second in Tatton (except for that time!), and there are wards with a strong Labour vote even in Alderley Edge and Knutsford (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=sk9+5hn) so in terms of tactical voting I have been voting Labour rather than Lib Dem. The link I quote predicts four times the number of Labour votes than Lib Dem although it's only a prediction.

Interesting, as it would strike me as obvious Lib Dem target territory: affluent commuter belt with many rural areas, rather like various parts of Surrey where the Lib Dems have always come second.

 

[BrianW]

Out of touch, indeed. Not sure who the party chairman is, but doubtless some well-connected type who could just walk into a better-paid job.


If you can find a new Martin Bell figure, then maybe. I doubt true-blue Tatton (an area I am familiar with, I lived there as a child and still have contacts there) would ever go Labour though! Maybe Lib Dem.

The Rt Hon Jake Berry, Member for Rossendale and Darwen, Chairman of the Conservative Party:
Term Length- at the pleasure of the Leader of the Conservative Party, ie. one moth to date and counting

'The man' for 'the North' aka Red Wall ...

From Wikipedia:
Berry was born on 29 December 1978 in Liverpool and privately educated at Liverpool College, before studying for a law degree at Sheffield University. He trained to be a lawyer in Chester and in the City of London, qualifying as a solicitor in 2003. He worked for a number of legal practices,specialising in planning law.

 

[takno]

If we do, she'll end up on GB News five days a week instead of two! Every silver lining has a (pretty large, dark) cloud!

Realistically that will probably be excellent news for 50 of the 100 viewers

 

[Typhoon]

The Rt Hon Jake Berry, Member for Rossendale and Darwen, Chairman of the Conservative Party:
Term Length- at the pleasure of the Leader of the Conservative Party, ie. one moth to date and counting

'The man' for 'the North' aka Red Wall ..

He also has a third job

Party chairman Jake Berry has provided “strategic corporate advice” to law firm Squire Patton Boggs since September 2020.
According to his register of interests on the parliament website, he devotes 15-20 hours a month to the role.
In return, he receives £42,000 a year, in addition to the £84,144 he earns as MP for Rossendale and Darwen.

So, undoubtedly, he will have little difficulty coping with the current hike in energy bills for which he provided the following advice:

Speaking to Sky News’ Sophy Ridge yesterday, Berry said: “People know that when their bills arrive they can either cut their consumption, or they can go out there and get higher salary or higher wages, they can go out there and get that new job.

Doubtless such sage advice will go down well in Rossendale and Darwen where the median gross weekly pay for full time employees is just over £30,000 according to House of Commons stats for 2021.

Quotes from https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...h-from-second-job_uk_633af38ee4b0b7f89f434e7a

 

[nw1]

The Rt Hon Jake Berry, Member for Rossendale and Darwen, Chairman of the Conservative Party:
Term Length- at the pleasure of the Leader of the Conservative Party, ie. one moth to date and counting

'The man' for 'the North' aka Red Wall ...

From Wikipedia:
Berry was born on 29 December 1978 in Liverpool and privately educated at Liverpool College, before studying for a law degree at Sheffield University. He trained to be a lawyer in Chester and in the City of London, qualifying as a solicitor in 2003. He worked for a number of legal practices,specialising in planning law.

Yet another lawyer then (yawn). The legal profession are vastly over-represented in Parliament.

Rossendale and Darwen sounds like a Red Wall kind of seat, and is presumably marginal. There's certainly enough there for the prospective Labour candidate to have a field-day.

 

[najaB]

Yet another lawyer then (yawn). The legal profession are vastly over-represented in Parliament.

There is a certain logic to the idea that the people who write the laws should be well versed in interpreting and using the laws.