Russia invades Ukraine

[Bletchleyite]

The U.S.A. has already warned Russia in public, and no doubt has made it very, very clear via diplomatic channels how serious the use of any nuclear weapons would be.

I don't believe the US would retaliate other than diplomatically if one was dropped on Ukraine. They've said they will, but that's not the same thing. The US directly attacking Russia would mean WW3, and the US (under Biden) has more sense than that.

My prediction remains that one (almost certainly only one, and probably a fairly small one) will be. It might mean the end of Putin, but I do think he's mad enough to do that (but not to nuke a NATO country, as that would mean annihilation for Russia).

 

[ainsworth74]

What kind of nuclear train. I’ve seen British nuclear trains many, many times… And technically, all trains are nuclear, as in they are all made up of atoms

If only one source is reporting this, I don’t think it’s more than attention grabbing headlines.

What I've seen is that it's a train full of trucks. But people are getting excited because they're trucks assigned to the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian MoD. Which are the guys responsible for transportation, maintenance, storage, issuance, disposal and pretty much every piece of admin related to, other than actually using, nuclear weapons. Hence the excitement.

 

[TheEdge]

What kind of nuclear train. I’ve seen British nuclear trains many, many times… And technically, all trains are nuclear, as in they are all made up of atoms

If only one source is reporting this, I don’t think it’s more than attention grabbing headlines.

@ainsworth74 has just beaten me to it as I was typing.

Its like everyone thinking the vehicles that make up the UK warhead convoy moving about was the same as a nuclear deployment.

 

[Chingy]

Here is an article on said "Nuclear Train" heading towards Ukraine;

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

President Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine’s borders, Nato is believed to have warned its members.

The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield. Fears over Putin’s earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics heightened yesterday with claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.

There are also similar articles in other media outlets like the Telegraph, Metro, Sky News, Guardian etc.

 

[TheEdge]

Its also worth pointing out soldiers from the Russian Strategic Missile arm have been in Ukraine but just as soldier, not a nuclear deployment.

 

[brad465]

Are there any railways left to Ukraine available to Russia? Ukraine seem to have knocked a few out of action/gained control as part of an effective counter-offensive to cut-off Russian supply lines.

 

[DC1989]

I don't believe the US would retaliate other than diplomatically if one was dropped on Ukraine. They've said they will, but that's not the same thing. The US directly attacking Russia would mean WW3, and the US (under Biden) has more sense than that.

It would be one of the shortest wars in history - The US & NATO could wipe out Russia's (remaining) army in 24 hours

 

[Bletchleyite]

It would be one of the shortest wars in history - The US & NATO could wipe out Russia's (remaining) army in 24 hours

WW III will be nuclear. It must be avoided at all costs.

 

[DC1989]

At all costs = giving up Ukraine?

 

[ainsworth74]

At all costs = giving up Ukraine?

As I recall "at all costs" has previously been stated by @Bletchleyite to up to and including the UK/NATO surrendering and living under a totalitarian regime if need be.

 

[DC1989]

I understand that people are frightened, but the long term implications of just folding to nuclear threats is unthinkable. So Russia could threaten nukes if we don't give them Poland, Lithuania, Estonia ? Better do it.... nuclear war must be avoided after all. Perhaps Le Pen gets in and threatens to nuke London if don't give France Wales? Better do it....

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I recall "at all costs" has previously been stated by @Bletchleyite to up to and including the UK/NATO surrendering and living under a totalitarian regime if need be.

Yes, I did state that. Better to be alive and able to run an insurgency in the future than to be dead.

I literally mean all costs. Global thermonuclear war is basically the end of humanity. It is not possible for something to be worse, unless you're a nihilist.

 

[Annetts key]

Yes, I did state that. Better to be alive and able to run an insurgency in the future than to be dead.

I literally mean all costs. Global thermonuclear war is basically the end of humanity. It is not possible for something to be worse, unless you're a nihilist.

You best start digging your nuclear fall out shelter then… Because there is no way that Ukraine will stop fighting now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You best start digging your nuclear fall out shelter then… Because there is no way that Ukraine will stop fighting now.

Ukraine can carry on fighting forever if it wants; that's its choice and nobody else's. The issue that would lead to WW III would be excessive US/UK involvement.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yes, I did state that. Better to be alive and able to run an insurgency in the future than to be dead.

How will you be able to run an insurgency if the invaders have already twigged that the mere mention of the 'N' word causes you to give them everything they want?

Invaders: 'If there's any hint of an insurgency after we've taken over, we'll just nuke London' ...

 

[Annetts key]

What I've seen is that it's a train full of trucks. But people are getting excited because they're trucks assigned to the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian MoD. Which are the guys responsible for transportation, maintenance, storage, issuance, disposal and pretty much every piece of admin related to, other than actually using, nuclear weapons. Hence the excitement.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1577268546274414593

Jennifer Griffin

@JenGriffinFNC
Reports of Russian train allegedly carrying nuclear weapons heading toward Ukraine appear to be FALSE based on US analysis, senior US defense official tells me.

Not double checked the above information yet…

 

[RichJF]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1577268546274414593

Not double checked the above information yet…

The original source was a pro-Russian Telegram (Russian social media website) account posting a video of a train with trucks that The Times just decided to report as a "Nuclear Train".

Semi-credible reports that the train was carrying new 4x4 vehicles with new BM-30-D Spitsa (32V01) turrets. These are destined for the 12GUMO who use them for protecting aforementioned weapons convoys. Mass production started earlier this year; so it possible they're going from the factory to the military units. It is likely the nuclear "test" the media keep gagging for is going to be live-firing, with associated troop movements, of strategic systems, but without nuclear capable warheads.

This whole conflict has proven how awful the media are at correct technical information & IMMEDIATELY going to metaphorical 'DEFCON' 1. It is beyond infuriating.

 

[Noddy]

Yes, I did state that. Better to be alive and able to run an insurgency in the future than to be dead.

I literally mean all costs. Global thermonuclear war is basically the end of humanity. It is not possible for something to be worse, unless you're a nihilist.

I think it’s pretty obvious to everyone now that while Russia might have a few thousand nukes left over from the cold war, and could still have the ability to land one or two, it clearly does not have the operational capability to be involved in one half of a global thermonuclear war.

 

[Broucek]

This whole conflict has proven how awful the media are at correct technical information & IMMEDIATELY going to metaphorical 'DEFCON' 1. It is beyond infuriating.

Whenever the media covers something that I know a LOT about because of my work, it is ALWAYS and I do mean ALWAYS wrong...

Which begs the question as to why I should trust it about anything more complicated than last night's football scores..... (And as staffing levels have thinned out with the consequential loss of specialist expertise, this will only get worse, sadly.)

 

[Annetts key]

Suchomimus has done a You Tube video on Russia's "Nuclear Train"…

Transcript
0:00
hello everyone I thought I'd take a look
0:02
at this video of the so-called nuclear
0:04
train which is causing a bit of a stir
0:07
it seems normal enough a train of
0:10
Russian Vehicles heading through Russia
0:12
and claimed to be heading towards
0:14
Ukraine like many trains we've seen
0:16
before
0:17
what has interested people though are
0:20
the two vehicles highlighted here
0:22
these are commas
0:24
43269 vistrals
0:27
are shown here
0:29
they feature the bm30d combat module
0:32
turret featuring a 30 millimeter cannon
0:36
7.62 millimeter pk2 gun and an automatic
0:40
grenade launcher
0:41
now these types of vehicle work
0:44
escorting something called quote special
0:47
cargos
0:48
they basically carry out counter
0:50
sabotage operations for the 12th Main
0:53
directorate
0:54
very responsible for Russia's nuclear
0:57
Arsenal so that is what it means by
1:00
special cargos which is why this has
1:02
some people concerned these vehicles
1:05
with that combat module in units from
1:07
the 12th main directorate would be
1:10
tasked with escorting nuclear weapons to
1:12
areas of operation
1:15
this is a second photo of a train
1:16
carrying some too it's unclear if this
1:19
is the same train or different however
1:21
just because bees are on the move it
1:23
doesn't mean that Russia has anything
1:25
nefarious planned it could be something
1:28
innocent or as in a sense as current
1:30
Russian activities can be
1:32
it could be that Russia is planning to
1:34
carry out live fire exercises of some of
1:37
its missiles to show the West quote how
1:41
powerful we are which side note kind of
1:44
works better when you aren't losing
1:46
every battle
1:47
it could also be to do with Grom 22
1:50
Russia's nuclear Readiness drills which
1:53
are meant to take place soon
1:55
these types of vehicles would likely
1:57
serve a role in drills like that
1:59
finally it's also possible that these
2:02
could be sent for regular combat
2:04
operations
2:05
they are pretty good on paper well-armed
2:08
Speedy maneuverable that sort of thing
2:10
so you can see why Russia may want to
2:12
send some to Ukraine
2:14
however I think it's best to check if
2:17
these truly are heading towards Ukraine
2:19
so let's check for geolocation
2:22
so where are they
2:24
so if we were on this railroad here now
2:27
note the two buildings that I've
2:28
highlighted now every single Source I've
2:31
read has said that this train is heading
2:34
south but
2:36
am I wrong or is it actually heading
2:38
north
2:39
replaying the video here you can see the
2:41
train heading past the red building and
2:43
the large Blue building
2:46
as seen here on this map that's North so
2:49
I'm sure these are heading away from
2:51
Ukraine not like most sources claim I
2:54
will now zoom out and we can see that
2:56
they are heading north of Moscow
2:59
so unless I've messed the directions up
3:01
big time
3:03
which is possible I've done it in the
3:05
past this train is not heading in the
3:07
direction of Ukraine I don't think it's
3:09
anything to do with the war
3:12
so shout out here to the next batch of
3:14
patreons Randall Tom Thomas Darcy Eric
3:18
and Sharpshooter thank you very much I
3:22
appreciate it a lot thanks for watching
3:24
my videos and for supporting my channel
3:26
it means a lot to me thanks again
3:28
everybody if you can click like And
3:30
subscribe I'd appreciate it thanks again
3:33
and take care

 

[Sm5]

If Russia uses a nuke, the rubicon of being afraid of Russian nukes is crossed.

I think the answer to nukes would be NATO giving Ukraine access to unlimited equipment and range, except nukes. The war would change from being contained within Ukraine, to Ukraine having free reign on targets. I would imagine Ukraine would take it to Russia, why wouldnt they, at this point ?

There would almost certainly be a huge increase in attacks in Moscow, and other guerrilla style attacks in other western Russian cities.. Chechen style escalation. Probably attacks on the M-4 at Sivert Donetsk River and E-40 from Volgograd which take out the only good roads in the region, plus the 3 Bridges at Rostov.. that would change Russias dynamic to move considerably, and of course at this point Kerch.

I would imagine it would all get rather more ugly, with Russia using some of its heavier long range missiles to more destructive force on western Ukraine, and probably Kiev, and NATO providing similar to Ukraine to point East.
Russia would need to hugely mobilize, however then I think it would be Putins undoing. Its clear sizeable numbers of people in the “western” parts of Russia dont support this war and are tolerating it. that tolerance may well change to disenchantment, that may encourage those in the east heading to Ukraine, to think their lot might be better going north to Moscow seek change.

However, I dont see it happening.

For Putin to fire a nuke, he has to believe he can survive it. Whilst the west and Russia are not talking, the messages are clear on red lines for both sides.

Remember we are afraid of nukes, but so are they.. thats why we have them.
There will be much fear in Russia that over stepping the redline will have consequence to them… and if we fail to act in response, then the deterrent, is no longer a deterrant to be scared of… so both sides will respect that.

I would expect at most, Russia will got to the very brink, to force a conversation with the US, but the US will talk at the brink. However from now until then its a conversation between Putin and Zelensky, but neither wants to talk to each other, as talking is a disadvantage to both sides, both believe they can win… theres too many pieces left on the chess board for a draw.

 

[adc82140]

Yes, I did state that. Better to be alive and able to run an insurgency in the future than to be dead.

I literally mean all costs. Global thermonuclear war is basically the end of humanity. It is not possible for something to be worse, unless you're a nihilist.

Global nuclear war would be destructive and would be an end to society as we know it. But it wouldn't amount to the end of humanity. Nuclear fallout only results if ground burst explosions are employed. This would be counter productive for Russia as the fallout would disperse over their own country, and air burst actually causes more widespread local damage. The "Nuclear Winter" theory has been largely debunked. The major cities in the Western world would be destroyed. But life would go on in much of the southern hemisphere.

 

[matthewjohnson]

Global nuclear war would be destructive and would be an end to society as we know it. But it wouldn't amount to the end of humanity. Nuclear fallout only results if ground burst explosions are employed. This would be counter productive for Russia as the fallout would disperse over their own country, and air burst actually causes more widespread local damage. The "Nuclear Winter" theory has been largely debunked. The major cities in the Western world would be destroyed. But life would go on in much of the southern hemisphere.

NZ sounding as attractive as it did during the height of the pandemic!

 

[adc82140]

Here is an article on said "Nuclear Train" heading towards Ukraine;

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

There are also similar articles in other media outlets like the Telegraph, Metro, Sky News, Guardian etc.

Since debunked on Sky News. The nuclear forces in Russia always go on exercises at this time of year. It's unfortunately rather typical of the print media these days to pick up on an Internet rumour and report it as fact.

 

[GusB]

Since debunked on Sky News. The nuclear forces in Russia always go on exercises at this time of year. It's unfortunately rather typical of the print media these days to pick up on an Internet rumour and report it as fact.

As does NATO; Operation Joint Warrior normally takes place around now.

Royal Navy leads huge military exercise around the UK

The biggest military exercise in the UK begins tomorrow as more than 11,000 sailors, soldiers and aircrew wage a 12-day ‘war’ around the British Isles.

www.royalnavy.mod.uk

The biggest military exercise in the UK begins tomorrow as more than 11,000 sailors, soldiers and aircrew wage a 12-day ‘war’ around the British Isles.
From Cape Wrath and the Hebrides to the North Sea and Channel, naval forces from across NATO will grapple with attacks from above, on and below the waves during Joint Warrior, Britain’s long-standing test of it – and international – military by land, sea and air.

More than 20 ships and a handful of submarines, led by seven Royal Navy warships, including destroyer HMS Diamond and three frigates (Kent, Northumberland and Somerset), plus a couple of Royal Fleet Auxiliary tankers are participating.

They are joined by vessels from the US, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Germany, Netherlands, Canada, France and Latvia.

More than 30 aircraft, including RAF Typhoon fighters and long-range maritime patrol aircraft will be committed, as well as drone technology and exercise planners intend to use ‘virtual’ aerial assets alongside live ones to test the response of participants.

Anti-submarine ships, aircraft and helicopters will hunt down live submarines, while land forces dealing with foes will include the gunners of 29 Commando Royal and elements of the US Marine Corps.

 

[najaB]

I literally mean all costs. Global thermonuclear war is basically the end of humanity. It is not possible for something to be worse, unless you're a nihilist.

It is not. It's the end of modern western civilisation for a few decades, but it won't result in the end of the human race.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is not. It's the end of modern western civilisation for a few decades, but it won't result in the end of the human race.

That's pretty bad.

Given the choice of living in Russia (as a citizen) or being dead, I'd crack out the vodka. Not great but better than dying in a pointless fireball. (I could accept dying fighting in a conventional war, but NOT a pointless global annihilation).

 

[DarloRich]

It is not. It's the end of modern western civilisation for a few decades, but it won't result in the end of the human race.

General "Buck" Turgidson : Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

It is going to be FAIRLY bad. it might not eradicate the human race but the effects and damage would be catastrophic. None of us are going to survive. You live in Scotland. You are going to glow: Rostyth, Faslane, Coulport, Lossiemouth, Leucahrs, Kinloss, Saxa Voe, Buchan and they are just the ones i can think of off the top of my head and that's before we start blowing up any cities!

 

[adc82140]

You have to remember as well that the sum total of Russian ICBMs, submarine launched missiles and missiles on heavy bombers is about 500, with a sum total of about 1500 warheads. That may sound a lot, but each warhead causes total destruction over an area of diameter sbout 10 miles. Those warheads won't go far when you consider the sheer size of the US and Europe combined. We no longer have cold war levels of weapons.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2022 ==

General "Buck" Turgidson : Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

It is going to be FAIRLY bad. it might not eradicate the human race but the effects and damage would be catastrophic. None of us are going to survive.

Disagree. Putting this coldly, I wouldn't fancy your chances in any big cities, but in more rural areas whilst modern society would collapse, humanity would survive.

 

[najaB]

Given the choice of living in Russia (as a citizen) or being dead, I'd crack out the vodka. Not great but better than dying.

As one of our cousins from across the pond once said:

Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.